Confirmed with Link: Rangers Acquire Rights to RW Barclay Goodrow; Signs Contract (6 Years, $3.642M AAV)

[Shesterkybomb]

People have to stop trusting analytics as a be all source for value, check out the analytics of the Leafs top players and then look at their playoff record and then tell me what the point of relying soley on analytics is. This is precisely why I'm happy we got Gallant, he has an eye for hockey that isn't muddied by regular season success. You can analyze Goodrow's analytics and his replacement value to the regular season all you want, the important stuff won't show up. Analytics has its place but stop quoting it as a piece of fact that determines a players worth, it more often misses than it hits when it comes to post season.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

This is a tough sale for me in both terms and $. Excellent PK and at times will battle along the boards but by no means can he even come close to to garnering those numbers that he produced in Tampa. He played with Gourde and Coleman and was a recipient of their skill set on the ice. Bottom line you always pay extra in a UFA scenario.

Im just spitballing but what if he's playing 3rd c with Kreider and Buch or Lafreniere and Kakko?

 

[duhmetreE]

Guys making over $3m, 3rd or 4th line, for playoff teams in 20-21 - based on the lines tracker thread on the Trade Board, which is reasonably correct most of the time

Boston: DeBrusk ($3.675m), Coyle ($5.25m)
Carolina: Staal ($6m)
Colorado: Burakovsky ($4.9m), Donskoi ($3.9m), Compher ($3.5m) - Compher played 2C at the end of the playoffs due to Kadri suspension
Edmonton: None
Florida: Hornqvist ($5.3m)
Minnesota: Parise ($7.538m), Fiala ($3m), Bonino ($4.1m)
Montreal: Byron ($3.4m)
Nashville: None - closest was Sissons at $2.8m.
NY Islanders: Pageau ($5m), Clutterbuck ($3.5), Cizikas ($3.35)
Pittsburgh: Tanev ($3.5m)
St Louis: Bozak ($5m), Hoffman ($4m),
Tampa: Gourde ($5.166m), Johnson ($5m)
Toronto: Kerfoot ($3.5m) - the 2C in the playoffs due to Tavares injury
Vegas: Tuch ($4.75m)
Washington: Eller ($3.5m), Oshie ($5.75m)
Winnipeg: Dubois ($5m), Perreault ($4.125m), Lowry ($2.916m - ok, close enough)

My point? There's a whole lot of hand-wringing going on over the kind of thing pretty much every successful team does. Are a lot of those deals too much money to pay a third liner? Yes, they are. Does it happen anyway? Yes it does. Does it hurt team's chances of success? Nope.

The only comparable here is Tanev. You give him AAV or term. Not both. EVEN THEN, NONE of these players were just signed to this type of deal in this depressed/flat cap market.

This is like buying a house for 2008 price in a 2011 market. You can twist it any way you want. The house is nice but you've overpaid.

 

[HockeyBasedNYC]

Dom Lunchchicken said it was one of the worst contracts he has ever seen, and he's king of the stat nerds. Seeing him stroke out about it actually reassured me the deal would be okay.

Thought the same.

That Dom guy does some great stat stuff, but it only tells half the story and cannot account for any intangibles.

Same with Shayna. She offers some good insight and uses a lot of his models but you can't put a great amount of stock into it all. I actually think what Vally does is a more pure study and less rooted in subjective forecast models that are really just concocted out of thin air by an individual or two.

Winning hockey is an emotional, collective initiative. For me, to win a grueling 2 month war of attrition its about the sum of all parts and an influential coach and a group of leaders to keep it glued together (the coach part can work both ways, see Keenan). You also need a group that is completely focused in understanding their roles, however large or small.

And there's a lot of luck involved too with injuries and bounces, although I'd like to think through hard work you can make some of them go your way.

Goodrow is a type of player who can help in all aspects and again, I am willing to pay a little extra at this point given the current state and talent of this club. We have Hart Trophy finalist, a Norris winner and two top 2 draft picks who will grow into their own. Surround all of that with the experience of winning at the highest level.

Lunchchicken Lol

 

[duhmetreE]

People have to stop trusting analytics as a be all source for value, check out the analytics of the Leafs top players and then look at their playoff record and then tell me what the point of relying soley on analytics is. This is precisely why I'm happy we got Gallant, he has an eye for hockey that isn't muddied by regular season success. You can analyze Goodrow's analytics and his replacement value to the regular season all you want, the important stuff won't show up. Analytics has its place but stop quoting it as a piece of fact that determines a players worth, it more often misses than it hits when it comes to post season.

but but but muh analytics

I'm pretty sure EDM and TOR are the heaviest users of analytics.... The regular season champions.

Regular Season ≠ Playoff Hockey

 

[TheBPA]

Good comparable to me is Cal Clutterbuck who is in the last year of a 5 year 3.5m per year contract that he signed when he was 29. It was 4.79% of the cap hit then. Goodrow at $3.6m would be 4.41% of the cap and his contract will take him through to the same age.

This contract is fine, even if a slight overpay.

 

[Beer League Sniper]

Not a fan of the rumored contract, but I think the reaction here is getting a little overblown.

Would I have preferred to keep Fast at the contract he got for the Canes? Yes.

But Goodrow is also a different player than Fast. He's significantly bigger, just as fast, and plays a heavier game.

It felt like our roster last season had very little pushback against teams that play a heavier game. Some of that, I believe, was the coach. But I do also believe that part of it was our roster composition. You need vets that bring a relentless physical aspect game in and game out. You can't expect your young players to fill that role, and they need someone to teach them how to incorporate those aspects into their game. If Goodrow can rub off just a little bit on guys like Lafreniere, Barron, and Chytil (players who I believe could bring a little more nastiness if they had a mind to), I'll call it a win. Still, I want to be clear that I don't care for the rumored numbers. I think it's a million too much and two years too long, but the man fills a need that literally no one else on the current roster can fill (right now).

Also, I just want to add that the player has valuable organizational knowledge. He knows what it takes for a team to win a cup. He understands the approach and intensity that needs to be brought to the table in order for a team to be successful. No one on our roster has even sniffed a cup other than Kreider. That does have value, as much as people like to mock the "Cup Tax."

 

[egelband]

Good comparable to me is Cal Clutterbuck who is in the last year of a 5 year 3.5m per year contract that he signed when he was 29. It was 4.79% of the cap hit then. Goodrow at $3.6m would be 4.41% of the cap and his contract will take him through to the same age.

This contract is fine, even if a slight overpay.

Nice call. Well researched. Thank you. That sounds right to me.

 

[duhmetreE]

Good comparable to me is Cal Clutterbuck who is in the last year of a 5 year 3.5m per year contract that he signed when he was 29. It was 4.79% of the cap hit then. Goodrow at $3.6m would be 4.41% of the cap and his contract will take him through to the same age.

This contract is fine, even if a slight overpay.

Yes, all the contracts we've mad fun of are now the standard we've come to accept.

 

[nyr2k2]

Thought the same.

That Dom guy does some great stat stuff, but it only tells half the story and cannot account for any intangibles.

Same with Shayna. She offers some good insight and uses a lot of his models but you can't put a great amount of stock into it all. I actually think what Vally does is a more pure study and less rooted in subjective forecast models that are really just concocted out of thin air by an individual or two.

Winning hockey is an emotional, collective initiative. For me, to win a grueling 2 month war of attrition its about the sum of all parts and an influential coach and a group of leaders to keep it glued together (the coach part can work both ways, see Keenan). You also need a group that is completely focused in understanding their roles, however large or small.

And there's a lot of luck involved too with injuries and bounces, although I'd like to think through hard work you can make some of them go your way.

Goodrow is a type of player who can help in all aspects and again, I am willing to pay a little extra at this point given the current state and talent of this club. We have Hart Trophy finalist, a Norris winner and two top 2 draft picks who will grow into their own. Surround all of that with the experience of winning at the highest level.

Lunchchicken Lol

Yeah, exactly all of this. I really enjoy the analytics side of the sport (what I can understand anyway), and generally like reading Shayna and Dom and some of the others out there. I do think, as you stated, that there is a human element to things that can't be quantified. You can measure what happens on the ice, but the off-ice stuff about changing a team's mindset and approach, the leadership certain guys provide, things like that, can't be quantified. I'm not making Goodrow out to be some hockey messiah, but I think his contributions to the team will be felt in a number of ways, only some of which can really be measured.

EDIT: Shayna had a piece the other day about Zibanejad vs. Eichel, and while it provided some really interesting analysis and figures, it basically only mentioned in passing the serious question marks around Eichel's health, as well as Zibanejad's concussions. I think that was because, again, it's something you can't measure. That's obviously a totally different "unmeasurable" than what we're talking with Goodrow, but it's the same point that there are always factors to be considered beyond the numbers.

 

[duhmetreE]

All things being equal...

I'd rather overpay Goodrow than pay for Eichel.

 

[TheBPA]

Yes, all the contracts we've mad fun of are now the standard we've come to accept.

Who cares who makes fun of them. The Clutterbuck contract is not at all what has hurt the Islanders with respect to the cap, and they just found a way to escape cap hell anyway even with Ladd, Leddy, Eberle, etc.

 

[duhmetreE]

Who cares who makes fun of them. The Clutterbuck contract is not at all what has hurt the Islanders with respect to the cap, and they just found a way to escape cap hell anyway even with Ladd, Leddy, Eberle, etc.

You can twist and reason why it's great...

I call it what it is.. He's a player that we needed but we overpaid. If Covid didn't happen, sure it's a 'market' contract....

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Dom Lunchchicken said it was one of the worst contracts he has ever seen, and he's king of the stat nerds. Seeing him stroke out about it actually reassured me the deal would be okay.

Lmao First Korn and onions and now Lunch chicken?

Every time you make fun of someone's name I get hungry

 

[Ola]

Dom Lunchchicken said it was one of the worst contracts he has ever seen, and he's king of the stat nerds. Seeing him stroke out about it actually reassured me the deal would be okay.

Is that really his last name?

 

[SA16]

Not a fan of the rumored contract, but I think the reaction here is getting a little overblown.

Would I have preferred to keep Fast at the contract he got for the Canes? Yes.

But Goodrow is also a different player than Fast. He's significantly bigger, just as fast, and plays a heavier game.

It felt like our roster last season had very little pushback against teams that play a heavier game. Some of that, I believe, was the coach. But I do also believe that part of it was our roster composition. You need vets that bring a relentless physical aspect game in and game out. You can't expect your young players to fill that role, and they need someone to teach them how to incorporate those aspects into their game. If Goodrow can rub off just a little bit on guys like Lafreniere, Barron, and Chytil (players who I believe could bring a little more nastiness if they had a mind to), I'll call it a win. Still, I want to be clear that I don't care for the rumored numbers. I think it's a million too much and two years too long, but the man fills a need that literally no one else on the current roster can fill (right now).

Also, I just want to add that the player has valuable organizational knowledge. He knows what it takes for a team to win a cup. He understands the approach and intensity that needs to be brought to the table in order for a team to be successful. No one on our roster has even sniffed a cup other than Kreider. That does have value, as much as people like to mock the "Cup Tax."

I doubt Goodrow is as fast as Jesper.

 

[TheBPA]

You can twist and reason why it's great...

I call it what it is.. He's a player that we needed but we overpaid. If Covid didn't happen, sure it's a 'market' contract....

No one said great. It's within the range of "fair". By the time we are worried about this contract the cap will either have gone up enough to make it not matter or you will be able to attach a mid/late pick to get rid of it.

 

[bleedblue94]

Im just spitballing but what if he's playing 3rd c with Kreider and Buch or Lafreniere and Kakko?

if that is the case than what is happening with strome and/or chytil? i highly doubt their vision to adjust this roster into a playoff team was to force chytil into a 2c role and slot goodrow as the 3c. i think goodrow is here to either take blackwells spot as the player on panarins wing or he is here to add an element to the 3rd line. there is no way we are going into this year with laf and kk on the 3rd line and I am very skeptical that they are relying on chytil to take the 2c role for this season simply on a projection when the goal is obviously to make the playoffs. that is a great way to get 20 games into a season and have to make a panic trade if it doesnt work out

 

[tlk]

Lunchchicken Lol

Yeah and please don't call this crowd 'nerds'
Nerds are outraged)

 

[Doctyl]

What did people want to spend on this contract? 2.5 instead of 3.5? Is that million extra really going to kill us? I feel like Trouba’s 8M will be way more of a problem when Nils pushes him down to 3RD

 

[duhmetreE]

What did people want to spend on this contract? 2.5 instead of 3.5? Is that million extra really going to kill us? I feel like Trouba’s 8M will be way more of a problem when Nils pushes him down to 3RD

We keep overpaying 40% on contracts it's going to become an issue

 

[Doctyl]

We keep overpaying 40% on contracts it's going to become an issue

Again, it’s the 8M bottom pair dman and 6.5M 3LW that are going to be causing problems in the future. This contract is irrelevant.

 

[duhmetreE]

Again, it’s the 8M bottom pair dman and 6.5M 3LW that are going to be causing problems in the future. This contract is irrelevant.

You can't continue to make bad decisions and then focus on your earlier bad decisions as the main problem

Trouba is a 40% overpay.
Kreider is an unfortunate timing
Goodrow is a 40% overpay.

We have A LOT of RFA's and UFAs coming up. Setting a poor precedent

 

[SA16]

Again, it’s the 8M bottom pair dman and 6.5M 3LW that are going to be causing problems in the future. This contract is irrelevant.

If you think we're going to have cap trouble in the future then overpaying depth guys now is only going to exacerbate the issue.

 

[NYR Viper]

We keep overpaying 40% on contracts it's going to become an issue

Have to love those NYC taxes...