OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: New season of plundering begins

[OnMyOwn]

It would be nice to see an add to the club here, soon. I feel like it would give the players a bit of a morale boost as well.

 

[MrBrightside]

I feel very confident that he is going to win it. Merrill is having a great year as well, but unless Skenes falters and then that lingers, or (god forbid) he gets hurt, I don't even think it's going to be that close. It's not really an exaggeration to say that he might be one of the best 5 pitchers in the NL right now.

Gambling wise, I am kicking myself for not being more aggressive when it was +1700.

I think that’s underselling it. What pitcher in the NL would you rather have out there in a winner-take-all setting? I can’t think of one. People always compare Skenes to Strasburg but really he’s much more 1984 Dwight Gooden to me (even if I just aged myself by remembering that time).

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think that’s underselling it. What pitcher in the NL would you rather have out there in a winner-take-all setting? I can’t think of one. People always compare Skenes to Strasburg but really he’s much more 1984 Dwight Gooden to me (even if I just aged myself by remembering that time).

That's fair for sure, I am just deferring to track record with some guys, since for example we have seen a guy like Wheeler step up and deliver repeatedly in playoff settings. That said, other than opportunity, there's no reason to think that Skenes will be adversely affected by whatever big stage comes his way. Probably a bit different in a series do-or-die game, but to me it seems very obvious that when he faces adversity, it's almost like it's a game to him to figure it out.

As for extension talks, I really don't see it happening personally. I hope to god I am wrong, but right now I think the Pirates best hope will be to go through his arbitration years and willingly pay him each year, including the eventual QO at the end of it. It's no pleasant to think about, but I think that's probably the window. If you can win at some point in 2026-2028, then you can probably entertain trading him for a haul. Otherwise the window is 2029 and gaining draft pick compensation when he's gone.

The one caveat might just be the inherent risk for a pitcher, meaning that he stands to easily gain 10s of millions in guaranteed money if he were to sign over the next offseason or two, but I would imagine it's still wait and see on his camp's side. Again, until there's some kind of stumbling block, we are looking at a guy who may receive Cy Young votes this year in addition to running away with the ROY award. If he stays healthy next year, he will probably be a favorite to win Cy Young.

Someone asked Alex Stumpf about it on twitter the other day and the only thing he said on "pure speculation" of what it would be like is the Bobby Witt deal. It's a harder comparison because Witt was a prep shortstop and had gotten a clear MLB foothold, but that's probaby in the ballpark of what we are talking about. I could see a scenario where Skenes accepts guaranteed money and bargains 1 FA year, but there's probably not huge incentive for him to do so yet, and definitely not quickly IMO. If he gets to free agency at 28, he will obliterate past contracts for pitchers.

The Pirates have no excuses really. They can afford to give out a Bobby Witt contract extension, but have never done so because they haven't show the will to do it.

 

[sovietsanta87]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1808161052628029790

Lmao

 

[Empoleon8771]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1808161052628029790

Lmao

Honestly I don't mind that idea?

Like I said last night, I think Skenes and Jones are only limited to about 12 starts remaining each. I don't see any way they'd be available for a playoff series if the Pirates somehow make the playoffs. You either use them to make a playoff run and you don't have them available in the playoffs, or you rest them in the season so they'd be available for the playoffs but likely don't make the playoffs.

The Pirates should be selling off their rental pieces while buying long-term pieces at the deadline this year.

 

[GilbertSeinfeld]

It's always about "next year" with the Pirates.

Next season will come around and they'll be talking about 2026.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

It's always about "next year" with the Pirates.

Next season will come around and they'll be talking about 2026.

I mean, I understand the cynicism, but we will most likely than not have a better record than last season, our starting rotation for next year should be VERY solid.... there are reasons to be optimistic.

 

[BusinessGoose]

I mean, I understand the cynicism, but we will most likely than not have a better record than last season, our starting rotation for next year should be VERY solid.... there are reasons to be optimistic.

Hmmm... I dunno if will end up better that last year. Well, we should. But i don't know if I'm sold on a winning record, yet.

Somehow under 500 could magically get into NL playoffs though lol so hmmmm

 

[Empoleon8771]

Yeah making the playoffs would be dope, but I think the Pirates would be an easy out because their playoff rotation would likely be Keller, Falter and Perez. Not exactly an enticing matchup for a wildcard series. Now you could shut down one of Jones or Skenes now so they could theoretically be available for the playoffs, but doing that also makes it way harder for the team to make the playoffs.

I think both selling and buying is what the team should do. Sell off rentals who won't be here next year for assets and trade assets for cost-controlled players who will be here next year. Skenes and Jones will be more available next year than they are this year, so I think their "window" really opens next year. They just have to add to the team they have now.

 

[ChaosAgent]

No question in my mind that the Pirates always intended to trade Chapman unless they were playing .550+ baseball. The premium they paid to sign him was both because they were only going to pay 65% of it by trading him in late-July, and because they wouldn't get low-balled in a trade like they do for many other guys. Like, c'mon, it's Aroldis Chapman. Give us something interesting at least. KC got Ragans for Chapman 1 year ago.

That said, I want them to add this year and would be very disappointed if they sell if they are still hovering around .500. We'll see how important Chapman really is to the bullpen. Bednar was looking much better before he got hurt, and MLod is coming on strong.

 

[Empoleon8771]

No question in my mind that the Pirates always intended to trade Chapman unless they were playing .550+ baseball. The premium they paid to sign him was both because they were only going to pay 65% of it by trading him in late-July, and because they wouldn't get low-balled in a trade like they do for many other guys. Like, c'mon, it's Aroldis Chapman. Give us something interesting at least. KC got Ragans for Chapman 1 year ago.

That said, I want them to add this year and would be very disappointed if they sell if they are still hovering around .500. We'll see how important Chapman really is to the bullpen. Bednar was looking much better before he got hurt, and MLod is coming on strong.

I think you ideally sell Chapman for a younger Holderman type of reliever, a MLB ready arm with upside but just isn't there yet.

Like you said, KC got Ragans for Chapman and Ragans is a legitimate MLB starter. I think they could get a young MLB bullpen arm with upside for Chapman for sure, even with him not performing as well this year as he did last year.

He doesn't quite fit because I know he's already in his arb years, but something like Chapman to San Diego for Morejon is the kind of deal I'd be shooting for. Morejob only has 2 years of control left though, I'd prefer to target someone with more control than him.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I think you ideally sell Chapman for a younger Holderman type of reliever, a MLB ready arm with upside but just isn't there yet.

Like you said, KC got Ragans for Chapman and Ragans is a legitimate MLB starter. I think they could get a young MLB bullpen arm with upside for Chapman for sure, even with him not performing as well this year as he did last year.

He doesn't quite fit because I know he's already in his arb years, but something like Chapman to San Diego for Morejon is the kind of deal I'd be shooting for. Morejob only has 2 years of control left though, I'd prefer to target someone with more control than him.

I don't want to see them totally capitulate this year, but there are scenarios where we add the needed bat (Chisholm, Ward, Bleday, whomever) but then also decide that the value is too good to not move Chapman.

If we have all of Bednar, Holderman, Mlod going well, how much value is Chapman adding really? Add in Hunter Stratton or Ortiz pitching well.

Chapman's stuff is still disgusting and unfair, but he's too frequently out of the zone. If we can only get a middling 40FV prospect I'd keep him but we should be shooting for closer to we got for Quintana 2 years ago.

 

[sovietsanta87]

Honestly I don't mind that idea?

Like I said last night, I think Skenes and Jones are only limited to about 12 starts remaining each. I don't see any way they'd be available for a playoff series if the Pirates somehow make the playoffs. You either use them to make a playoff run and you don't have them available in the playoffs, or you rest them in the season so they'd be available for the playoffs but likely don't make the playoffs.

The Pirates should be selling off their rental pieces while buying long-term pieces at the deadline this year.

I don’t mind the strategy either. It just seems like we’ll hear the same thing next year.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think Chapman will get a decent return because he still clearly has it and relief pitching is always in high demand, maybe even moreso this year given how few true sellers there are.

Whatever the specifics are, it seems like it will be good asset management and horrible optics, which can only be mitigated by actually buying a controllable player. I'm not holding my breath.

 

[Factorial]

I think Chapman will get a decent return because he still clearly has it and relief pitching is always in high demand, maybe even moreso this year given how few true sellers there are.

Whatever the specifics are, it seems like it will be good asset management and horrible optics, which can only be mitigated by actually buying a controllable player. I'm not holding my breath.

No single A prospects.

 

[td_ice]

It's incredible that we are on pace for only 2 more wins than last season, considering what Skenes, Jones and Keller are giving us.

Kinda disgusting actually.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

No single A prospects.

I don't disagree, but the cliche is probably that it would be about getting the best value. If you get single A prospects who you believe will break out over the next 1-3 years, then it's hard to argue from a value perspective given the rental aspect. The obvious case there is swapping Tony Watson for Cruz.

But it would send a worse message than just trading him in the first place, so I can see the point. The Royals trading for Ragans has turned into a major coup for them, as he's one of the better pitchers in the entire AL now.

The best thing the Pirates might be able to do is trade for a power bat that hasn't worked out yet, but that's tricky and very possibly able to turn into a bust.

It's not a great situation, and it's one that management put us in by having such a bad offseason. And I think if you were willing to make the enormous splash and try for Vlad Jr., for example, then it becomes harder to just make a good baseball trade in moving Chapman because you should be as all-in as possible for 2024.

The next three weeks will weigh heavily on any decisions, but IMO there's at least a pretty decent likelihood that the whole race will remain gummed up and we'll be equivalently mediocre to everyone to the point where it could go either way at the deadline.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

No off day means I am rushing to file this one in, though we're close enough where we need to step back and look at different contexts than just the equivalent of 3-4 series. That said, I think we all pretty much know what's up with this mediocre team, and it seems like the rain delay will get me some cover to slap this together before Skenes' first pitch.

Starting record: 27-32
Record over stretch: 7-5
Ending record: 34-37

Frustrations with some games aside, it was still a pretty successful stretch. It didn't do a ton in terms of separating us from other competition, but that battle is going to have to be fought against division opponents and by maintaining the 7-5 type of play, or really a game or two better, over longer stretches than 12 games.

Getting the series W against the Cardinals would have been very clutch, and missing out on a sweep due to bad bats and a bad Jones start against a weak team is another opportunity blown, though not as bad as the whole stretch of games where we blew similar opportunities a lot more often.

Still, I think the overall trend is encouraging, as 8-4 felt extremely bold and 6-6 probably would have been somehow palatable with facing the Dodgers

Looking ahead: 3 vs. CIN, 3 vs. TB (6 home) + 3 vs. CIN, 3 vs. ATL (6 road)
Time to play the Reds. Chances are, this upcoming stretch of games could be more impactful within the division, as we seek to avoid sinking too far down below the Brewers. The Brewers have a pretty easy schedule over the next few weeks, so it is going to be difficult to keep pace, but any decent performance is going to see us keep a foot close to one of the wild card spots, which is probably the realistic best case scenario. IMO the Brewers will need to go on a longish losing streak for the division to get more competitive again.

We need 8-4 this time. We have to show that we are better than the Reds (realistically a toss up, both have upside but serious warts), and the Rays are having a down year. The Braves lost Acuna and now Harris will be out, so if we get ok pitching matchups there, it shouldn't be what it usually is to face them by a long shot.

I think what 8-4 gets you is a toehold into one of the actual WC spots, which doesn't matter all that much with so many teams congregated around the same record. The Braves have a 3.5 game lead which feels like it may evaporate over the remainder of the month.

Fittingly, it starts with Skenes tonight. It would be really nice to see a healthy Cruz capitalize on the direction he was headed in- starting to hit the ball hart but a bit unlucky. The offense still feels too much like it's hot and cold even if the results over about a month have been consistent. Skenes today and Keller for game 3, you need to take this series and then figure out how to do the same vs an inferior Rays.

Again rushing here, even with the off day yesterday, but filing this one just to get it in.

Starting record: 34-37
Record over stretch: 6-6
Ending record: 40-43

Fairly simple story: we took both series vs. the Reds and lost both of the other winnable series, against the Rays and Braves. We wasted both of Skenes' starts over this stretch, during which he pitched 13 innings and allowed 2 runs, both on solo shots to start the game, while striking out 17 and further staking his claim to rookie of the year. Perhaps the only bright spot in terms of him personally from the team is that we did enough not to saddle him with losses, though it's not like pitcher losses really matter.

Otherwise, we are doing enough to keep pace with most everyone, but it's a razor thin margin and we are comfortably behind the Brewers now.

I think it's a little easy to dismiss the larger picture and say we are still in it. We're blowing a lot of winnable games, and the root cause of that is that we're a mediocre team in a sea of mediocre teams. If we had managed 2 more wins in this stretch, it wouldn't dramatically change the outlook, but it would put us neck and neck with the Cardinals as we head into this stretch.

Looking ahead: 3 vs. STL, 3 vs. NYM (6 home) + 3 vs. MIL, 3 vs. CHW (6 road)
The stage is still set for an important stretch of 12 games before the all star break. We've got Keller on the mound for a crucial series tonight, and then presumably Skenes starting the Mets series with Keller on Sunday. Combine that with these first 6 coming at home, and you need to start 4-2.

Milwaukee won't be an easy matchup, but unless Skenes is skipped, he should pitch in that series and they are a team that you can beat if you pitch well.

Optimism for more than .500 is pretty baseless at this point, given the offensive woes that always pop their head up in conjunction with at least some shakiness (especially relative to the offense) in the Jones and Falter rotation spots, to say nothing of Perez who got totally shelled and lost the game before we had a chance. That said, you pretty much need over .500 in this stretch of games, to the tun of 7-5 even if that's not really much for a team perpetually 2-3 games under .500 at best.

Having a bad White Sox team (though certainly one that is capable of winning) as the final series provides some relief, and some "flex", if it can be put that way, since a team that executes and fires on all cylinders should be able to sweep them. Teams who have swept them in the past two months or so are the Yankees, Brewers, Dodgers, Orioles, and Blue Jays, and the only team in that group I would put as our peers are the Blue Jays.

Still, 7-5 is a pretty middling baseline, given that it's attainable by winning and avoiding sweeps. I get the feeling that this Cardinals series will really set the tone. At minimum I would love to see us get them and then get some revenge against the Mets, going 4-2 or better, and maybe catch the Brewers sleeping before the break. We haven't seen this team truly put together a consistent winning stretch for 10-12 games, but if they can show something like 8-4 or even (in the most delusionaly optimistic lens possible) 9-3, then that would at least put some more pressure on the front office to put up or shut up.

At the end of the day, I will say 7-5 here at bare minimum, with 8-4 as more realistically the kind of stretch that's needed headed to the break. I'm not holding my breath that that actually happens, since it's felt like we would held in the opposite direction so many times but we've always managed to avoid that too.

 

[metalan2]

"

Pirates' offensive woes can clearly be tied back to Andy Haines​

If it was only one or two players that saw a big dip in wRC+, or turned their season around elsewhere, that would be one thing. But the Pirates have five hitters with a 20%+ drop in wRC+ from 2023 to 2024, and have now seen a player turn their game around with another hitting coach for a third season in a row. If it happens once or twice, that happens to every team. Three seasons in a row is a trend."

The Pittsburgh Pirates' hitting woes in 2024 can be traced back to Andy Haines

At the end of May of this year, Pittsburgh Pirates’ first baseman Rowdy Tellez was coming off what was probably the most disheartening month of his entire playi

rumbunter.com

 

[BusinessGoose]

That was a stupid thing to challenge. It was clear contreras was HBP. Now we lost our challenge at 0.2 innings of the game. Lol.

 

[td_ice]

Again rushing here, even with the off day yesterday, but filing this one just to get it in.

Starting record: 34-37
Record over stretch: 6-6
Ending record: 40-43

Fairly simple story: we took both series vs. the Reds and lost both of the other winnable series, against the Rays and Braves. We wasted both of Skenes' starts over this stretch, during which he pitched 13 innings and allowed 2 runs, both on solo shots to start the game, while striking out 17 and further staking his claim to rookie of the year. Perhaps the only bright spot in terms of him personally from the team is that we did enough not to saddle him with losses, though it's not like pitcher losses really matter.

Otherwise, we are doing enough to keep pace with most everyone, but it's a razor thin margin and we are comfortably behind the Brewers now.

I think it's a little easy to dismiss the larger picture and say we are still in it. We're blowing a lot of winnable games, and the root cause of that is that we're a mediocre team in a sea of mediocre teams. If we had managed 2 more wins in this stretch, it wouldn't dramatically change the outlook, but it would put us neck and neck with the Cardinals as we head into this stretch.

Looking ahead: 3 vs. STL, 3 vs. NYM (6 home) + 3 vs. MIL, 3 vs. CHW (6 road)
The stage is still set for an important stretch of 12 games before the all star break. We've got Keller on the mound for a crucial series tonight, and then presumably Skenes starting the Mets series with Keller on Sunday. Combine that with these first 6 coming at home, and you need to start 4-2.

Milwaukee won't be an easy matchup, but unless Skenes is skipped, he should pitch in that series and they are a team that you can beat if you pitch well.

Optimism for more than .500 is pretty baseless at this point, given the offensive woes that always pop their head up in conjunction with at least some shakiness (especially relative to the offense) in the Jones and Falter rotation spots, to say nothing of Perez who got totally shelled and lost the game before we had a chance. That said, you pretty much need over .500 in this stretch of games, to the tun of 7-5 even if that's not really much for a team perpetually 2-3 games under .500 at best.

Having a bad White Sox team (though certainly one that is capable of winning) as the final series provides some relief, and some "flex", if it can be put that way, since a team that executes and fires on all cylinders should be able to sweep them. Teams who have swept them in the past two months or so are the Yankees, Brewers, Dodgers, Orioles, and Blue Jays, and the only team in that group I would put as our peers are the Blue Jays.

Still, 7-5 is a pretty middling baseline, given that it's attainable by winning and avoiding sweeps. I get the feeling that this Cardinals series will really set the tone. At minimum I would love to see us get them and then get some revenge against the Mets, going 4-2 or better, and maybe catch the Brewers sleeping before the break. We haven't seen this team truly put together a consistent winning stretch for 10-12 games, but if they can show something like 8-4 or even (in the most delusionaly optimistic lens possible) 9-3, then that would at least put some more pressure on the front office to put up or shut up.

At the end of the day, I will say 7-5 here at bare minimum, with 8-4 as more realistically the kind of stretch that's needed headed to the break. I'm not holding my breath that that actually happens, since it's felt like we would held in the opposite direction so many times but we've always managed to avoid that too.

Yeah with Cards on a good run, we lost a few in the WC race. We were just 1.0 game back recently, iirc, and now that gap is 3.

 

[Coastal Kev]

How in the F has Shelty not been thrown out of this game. The ump is giving this guy a ton of low and away balls as strikes which has led to 4 Pirate batters swinging at ball..............

COMPLETE BS

 

[BusinessGoose]

Strikezone is shifted well off outside of plate for righties

As long as he's consistent...

Keller rough really so far

 

[Empoleon8771]

These are my aces

 

[BusinessGoose]

Disgusting GIDP by Grandal. Good lord he sucks.