OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: New season of plundering begins

[td_ice]

Taylor saves a run. Turns a two run double into only a sac fly.

4-2, 2 outs, runner on 2b.

EDIT: YES!!

Raise it!!

 

[BusinessGoose]

Raise It

So many warts still. But at least not a series sweep

 

[ChaosAgent]

Raise it. Season saving win and catch by MAT. Now bring up Bae for Suwinski. MAT can be a late game sub.

 

[td_ice]

Big win to prevent a sweep. Figuring with Skenes and Falter the next two up, we would split. And we did, just not in the way we thought.

Defensive plays by Suwinski, Taylor, and Bart today.

Pitching, obviously Falter, but Nicolas, Mlodzinski, and then Chapman to close the door, although it got dicey and he gave up a run.

Offense, kudos to Cruz and Tellez with 2 run homers each.

Bummer, no Reynolds hit today. Streak over.

 

[GilbertSeinfeld]

Bummer, no Reynolds hit today. Streak over.

Bum, trade him.

 

[BusinessGoose]

Reynolds after being 80% of our entire offense in June

 

[ChaosAgent]

It would be cool to see Ashcraft in the upcoming series, but I don't mind going with Jones, Keller, Perez.

Perez needs a good outing badly. At the same time, we should be thinking about whether to showcase Ashcraft before the TDL. Getting a ready-made ML starter who is blocked could headline a package for most of our targets, especially Ward.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Good win. It's 3-3 on the road again, treading water, like basically the rest of the NL.

That was a very winnable series. Atlanta is just not very good this year. They have guys who can punish you, but a bunch of their players are having down years offensively. Definitely has the feel of a series W that slipped away, but the next three games with St. Louis at home are more magnified regardless.

 

[td_ice]

Some Skenes quotes over the last two days. (Can't remember all verbatim, so some paraphrasing.)


On facing the Braves lineup, and what challenges it presents;
"It's just another lineup, I just have to execute."

Talk about going from, a year ago, pitching in the college WS to this year, pitching in the majors:
"there's a big difference from college ball to the majors, to the point where it's not even the same game. Then there is a difference in each level of the pro's. Although I didn't experience every level, there's a big jump to each. "

On talking to Brave's pitchers Sale and Morton yesterday; "I wanted to pick their brain and get any tips that I could", What did you learn in that conversation; "how closely their off field personality matches their on field personality. I found that interesting. The competitiveness, the focus."

On "struggling" a bit yesterday: "you're gonna days where your body doesn't feel that great, and you don't have your best stuff, but you still have to grind away and I feel I did a good job at that yesterday."

Capps asked him about his fastball, (I forget if they were talking 2 or 4 seam), and the changes, if any he has made, as Capps said he has noticed a difference. "I have a bit more of a gap between my fingers this season on it."

Does it seem like a whirlwind, College WS, no. 1 overall in the draft, and now pitching in the majors?
"Life does go fast, but it's nothing I can't handle."

 

[GilbertSeinfeld]

I liked that during his interview the team hit two home runs.

 

[td_ice]

I liked that during his interview the team hit two home runs.

Did you notice that Skenes knew that ball by Cruz was gone the second he hit? Pitchers know, haha.

 

[BusinessGoose]

Did you notice that Skenes knew that ball by Cruz was gone the second he hit? Pitchers know, haha.

"lets go" muttered midsentence lol

 

[DJ Spinoza]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1807561635516584120

Guy refuses to do anything but hit XBH

 

[td_ice]

Vlad Guerrero Jr. on a crazy tear.

Last 8 games......

16 for 37

6 hr's

20 rbi's

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think Toronto has no choice but to blow it up. I guess the one caveat might be that they are leveraged so highly into win-now mode that it might be difficult, but their only option for next year if they don't retool in some way seems to be trying to run it back, and then Vladdy and Bichette are on expiring contracts.

The other team I have my eye on is Washington. The division is out of reach for them, though the playoffs are as viable for them as they are for us. Still, they've gone a good job of assembling a roster and don't have many contracts weighing them down, along with an ok system and the 10th pick and likely a good shot at another complementary player.

I've always liked what I've seen from Lane Thomas, though it seems like he's taken a step back this year. Still, he's under control for a few more years and could be a solid under the radar type addition of the Nationals do a kind of minor sell. They also have Winker as a pure rental.

 

[Empoleon8771]

https://www.mlb.com/news/luis-gil-paul-skenes-hold-big-leads-in-latest-rookie-of-the-year-poll

Skenes is absolutely running away with the ROY vote here. Skenes got 30 of 37 first place votes on this.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I feel very confident that he is going to win it. Merrill is having a great year as well, but unless Skenes falters and then that lingers, or (god forbid) he gets hurt, I don't even think it's going to be that close. It's not really an exaggeration to say that he might be one of the best 5 pitchers in the NL right now.

Gambling wise, I am kicking myself for not being more aggressive when it was +1700.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I feel very confident that he is going to win it. Merrill is having a great year as well, but unless Skenes falters and then that lingers, or (god forbid) he gets hurt, I don't even think it's going to be that close. It's not really an exaggeration to say that he might be one of the best 5 pitchers in the NL right now.

Gambling wise, I am kicking myself for not being more aggressive when it was +1700.

Yeah I think Skenes is simply too good to not win the ROY. I don't think he's capable of having a start of giving up more than like 3-4 runs in an outing.

It sucks for the Pirates but it's pretty awesome for Skenes. I think this just solidifies they'll only have him for about 5 years, but I'll just enjoy it while he's here.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think the only way Skenes doesn't win ROY is if he gets shut down due to an innings limit. But I think that's a much bigger risk with Jones than with Skenes, especially because of how delicate they were with Skenes in AAA this year. Their usage of him out of the gate was bizarre for sure, but it's going to pay off greatly when Skenes has the ability to pitch later into the year.

Skenes threw 129.1 innings between LSU and the minors last year and is at 79.2 innings right now. I figure they're willing to stretch him out to about 150 innings this year, but that's still an additional 10-13 starts left this year depending on how long he goes per start. I think Jones is about the same, I think he and Skenes together have about 24 more starts to give the Pirates in the remaining 79 games. The issue with that is they're 40% of the Pirates rotation and those 24 games are only 30% of the remaining games, so they'll need other guys to pick up the remaining games.

Even with assuming that Skenes ends up with 21 starts in the MLB (assuming both he and Jones give 12 more starts at 6 innings per start), I honestly think that's enough for him to win ROY with how he has performed.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I think the only way Skenes doesn't win ROY is if he gets shut down due to an innings limit. But I think that's a much bigger risk with Jones than with Skenes, especially because of how delicate they were with Skenes in AAA this year. Their usage of him out of the gate was bizarre for sure, but it's going to pay off greatly when Skenes has the ability to pitch later into the year.

Skenes threw 129.1 innings between LSU and the minors last year and is at 79.2 innings right now. I figure they're willing to stretch him out to about 150 innings this year, but that's still an additional 10-13 starts left this year depending on how long he goes per start. I think Jones is about the same, I think he and Skenes together have about 24 more starts to give the Pirates in the remaining 79 games. The issue with that is they're 40% of the Pirates rotation and those 24 games are only 30% of the remaining games, so they'll need other guys to pick up the remaining games.

Even with assuming that Skenes ends up with 21 starts in the MLB (assuming both he and Jones give 12 more starts at 6 innings per start), I honestly think that's enough for him to win ROY with how he has performed.

Even in Skenes' bad starts he limits the damage. Dude is just a stud.

I hope Nutting can see that he is a marketing bonanza for the team and breaks all the team's track record to sign him...just, now. Also, as we head into the end of the PNC Park lease...things could get contentious between Bob and the city if Skenes leaves here in 2028.

Assuming Skenes gets 2 more pre-arb years then 3 arbitration years, that's about $1.8M pre-arb + let's say $45M in arbitration. So let's say 5 years, $47M. Can we tack 3 years and $80M onto that deal to make an aggregate contract of 8 years, $130M? That also gets Skenes to FA at age 30 where he could still break the bank with a $300M contract or so.

If it helped seal the deal, I would move some money forward. I think the team already did this with Hayes. Ke'Bryan Hayes | MLB | Spotrac.com.

2025: $10M
2026: $12M
2027: $14M
2028-2032: $16M

 

[Empoleon8771]

I haven't been posting as much in the Pirates thread recently, so I have been festering on a couple of thoughts that I've meant to share. Apologies for the duplicate posts here

One thing I've been thinking about is Falter's future here with being in the rotation. I think Falter has had some rough outings recently, namely with having 3 outings where he only lasted 4 innings and giving up 3-5 earned runs. But at the same time, that's not really bad for a depth starter either. His June was pretty poor with a 5.63 ERA, but he had a 4.28 FIP which is absolutely legitimate as a starter. His underlying numbers have also gotten better over that window despite his poor overall results.

He has had both highs and lows in his career, but what he has been in his career overall (4.49 ERA and 4.66 FIP) seems like a viable #5 starter. I haven't been thinking of him in a future starter's role beyond this year, but thinking about it more, I do wonder if I should think of him as the #5 until he shows to not be a starter. It's not that he's anything special, but what he's capable of providing is a valuable asset in the MLB. Teams pay $10 million for what Falter provides in UFA fairly regularly, so I don't know that it's fair for me to be as dismissive of Falter as I have been. He's in the same boat as Priester for me: he's not anything special but "not anything special" starting pitchers are still valuable pieces to have.

Even in Skenes' bad starts he limits the damage. Dude is just a stud.

I hope Nutting can see that he is a marketing bonanza for the team and breaks all the team's track record to sign him...just, now. Also, as we head into the end of the PNC Park lease...things could get contentious between Bob and the city if Skenes leaves here in 2028.

Assuming Skenes gets 2 more pre-arb years then 3 arbitration years, that's about $1.8M pre-arb + let's say $45M in arbitration. So let's say 5 years, $47M. Can we tack 3 years and $80M onto that deal to make an aggregate contract of 8 years, $130M? That also gets Skenes to FA at age 30 where he could still break the bank with a $300M contract or so.

If it helped seal the deal, I would move some money forward. I think the team already did this with Hayes. Ke'Bryan Hayes | MLB | Spotrac.com.

2025: $10M
2026: $12M
2027: $14M
2028-2032: $16M

I would pay Skenes a ton of money to just get him for even 8 years. Like you said, he's still super young as a UFA at that point and can cash out massively as a UFA at age 30. Cole's mega contract with the Yankees was in his age 29/30 season, I don't see why that can't be applied to Skenes as well.

I wouldn't expect Skenes to give up many UFA years, but that amount of money for 8 years (2 pre-arb, 3 arb and 3 UFA years) seems reasonable. Hell, just give him a flat $15 million AAV over those 8 years and I think that's fairly reasonable. I would even do that for 7 years if he'd take it. I just don't want to lose Skenes as soon as his arb years are done.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I also say this half-tongue in cheek: Ask Skenes what Livvy earns from her endorsements and thirsty dudes and add 10% to it. We're the ones who can pay him NOW in 2025-2026. Use present value and discounting to your advantage. That also may make Skenes stupidly valuable on the trade market down the line because he would be at a lower salary and less likely to put an acquiring team over the luxury tax.

I just dread losing the guy after 3-4 more years, especially in the 50% chance that he has an arm injury so effectively get half of that.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I haven't been posting as much in the Pirates thread recently, so I have been festering on a couple of thoughts that I've meant to share. Apologies for the duplicate posts here

One thing I've been thinking about is Falter's future here with being in the rotation. I think Falter has had some rough outings recently, namely with having 3 outings where he only lasted 4 innings and giving up 3-5 earned runs. But at the same time, that's not really bad for a depth starter either. His June was pretty poor with a 5.63 ERA, but he had a 4.28 FIP which is absolutely legitimate as a starter. His underlying numbers have also gotten better over that window despite his poor overall results.

He has had both highs and lows in his career, but what he has been in his career overall (4.49 ERA and 4.66 FIP) seems like a viable #5 starter. I haven't been thinking of him in a future starter's role beyond this year, but thinking about it more, I do wonder if I should think of him as the #5 until he shows to not be a starter. It's not that he's anything special, but what he's capable of providing is a valuable asset in the MLB. Teams pay $10 million for what Falter provides in UFA fairly regularly, so I don't know that it's fair for me to be as dismissive of Falter as I have been. He's in the same boat as Priester for me: he's not anything special but "not anything special" starting pitchers are still valuable pieces to have.

As long as we have 9-10 viable rotation options every year, I am fine with Bailey Falter being one of them. We see it now: Perez hurt, M. Gonzalez hurt, Oviedo hurt, Priester hurt.

We will have the sizzle at the top of the rotation in the coming years but you have to win the other games. Or win some of the games where one of the TOR guys are hurt.

Where I differ from you is that "the #5" statement. "The #5" does not exist to me in a long time scale because in almost no circumstances do you have your #1-5 all healthy and clicking. I view it more as:

Category 1 - your top guys where you expect to win the game
Category 2 - the guys who are pretty good where you give yourself a 50% chance all things being equal
Category 3 - the dice rolls, the bullpen games, the "prove it" games.

Falter's performance thus far this year put himself into Category 2 for me. Maybe this is merely semantics as the #5 and the #6 are actually implied to be the Category 2 dudes.

 

[Empoleon8771]

As long as we have 9-10 viable rotation options every year, I am fine with Bailey Falter being one of them. We see it now: Perez hurt, M. Gonzalez hurt, Oviedo hurt, Priester hurt.

We will have the sizzle at the top of the rotation in the coming years but you have to win the other games. Or win some of the games where one of the TOR guys are hurt.

Where I differ from you is that "the #5" statement. "The #5" does not exist to me in a long time scale because in almost no circumstances do you have your #1-5 all healthy and clicking. I view it more as:

Category 1 - your top guys where you expect to win the game
Category 2 - the guys who are pretty good where you give yourself a 50% chance all things being equal
Category 3 - the dice rolls, the bullpen games, the "prove it" games.

Falter's performance thus far this year put himself into Category 2 for me. Maybe this is merely semantics as the #5 and the #6 are actually implied to be the Category 2 dudes.

Yeah I think category 2 would be "rotation guys when healthy" and I think Falter would fall in that. I think the big difference in my past view vs my now view is that Falter is now in category 2 instead of category 3 for me.

With this criteria, I think you'd have:

Category 1: Keller, Skenes and Jones
Category 2: Falter and Oviedo
Category 3: Priester and Ortiz bulk game

I'm actually pretty content with this as a whole, I just think you need 2 more "category 3" guys with this criteria. I'm pretty satisfied with Priester as a depth starter and Ortiz as a bulk reliever in a bullpen game. You just need like 2 more guys on that level that you'd be satisfied with. Luckily I think they have those guys in system or can find them in UFA fairly easily. I think you fill one of those spots with someone like Burrows or Ashcraft (Ashcraft looks really damn good right now) and the other one is a UFA signing.

 

[td_ice]

They showed a graphic the other day with pitchers batting average ahed in the count and behind in the count. And Falter had the biggest differential in the league of any starter.

.270 ahead in the count
.620 behind in the cont.

Definitely a guy that better hit his spots. If the command is off, he is in trouble.

Falter has definitely had some good run of starts, and then streaks of poor starts. But yeah, he's serviceable.