OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Dull days of July

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ImporterExporter

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I always find the west coast guys easy to mix up.

I think my starting stab (for a quantity over quality type offer) would be something like Priester, Bae, Barco, and another minor leaguer, maybe even a high ceiling, low floor guy like Gorski or Bowen. That's immediate cheap rotation help along with a utility guy in Bae that they could try out in CF. I thought about Peguero but they already have Gelof up the middle and Jacob Wilson is their top prospect at SS, so Bae's flexibility and immediate readiness seemed like a better fit.

It might sound like a pipe dream, but I do think Priester has some value, especially in a deal like this. He has a starter's frame and arsenal and will give you cheap innings for several years. Barco is not too far behind him and likely contributes in the majors even if it's as a reliever.

If you had to reshuffle and include Harrington, it's not like that's the end of the world, but he's rising along with Chandler, and I'd be doing my best to keep Chandler, him, and Ashcraft off the table in talks. Those are three bullets to have in the chamber for both depth and impact in 2025.

That's a fair package without a doubt considering the factors.

I've got no issue moving Priester at this point. He's shown improvements this season certainly and I think if everything clicked could be another Keller which is more valuable than Rooker for 2 or 3 years. But Rooker is established and QP isn't. Priester, Bae, and Barco (maybe you need to throw a lotto ticket to get it across the line) should honestly get it done, though I would like us to hold onto Barco personally. He's pitched very well in a hitter's league, and before the TJ surgery had a lot of helium in his draft year. The jump to AA (should be coming soon) will be a solid barometer of where he'll end up on the prospect lists next spring.

We just have so much pitching talent, the depth is there to swing a trade or 2 for bats. But we're not yet in position to go all in where you see the Chandler types moved.

The WC is very much in play, coupled with our top 3 starters, makes me a buyer at the deadline, but it can't be an all in deals. We're not close to being legit WS contenders yet. But Rooker is the type who can move the offensive needle and not break the bank in the shorter term, though he's almost surely be brought back for 2025 and in a perfect world is our 4 or 5 hitter on playoff teams. before his contract runs out in 2027.
 

ChaosAgent

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Rooker is the best pure hitter on the market with multiple years of control after this.

I find it very hard to believe he can be acquired without a Top 100 prospect attached at least. Or Luis Ortiz. I'd trade either Johnson or Chandler if it came to that.

Rooker would have downstream impacts on Cutch and maybe Davis too. He is a defensive liability apparently and really would be coming here to DH. Maybe for the rest of this year we just alternate between Rooker and Cutch as horror-shows in RF. But next year we need Cutch to retire.

Davis' best path here going forward is as our DH in 2025 if he can hit - TBD. Rooker being here would block that.
 

Empoleon8771

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I don't think it makes any sense to target a primary DH until McCutchen actually retires. He's still an above league average hitter and a huge positive on the locker room. If they're actually spending significant assets to get a bat, it should either be a long-term OF or 1B. Going after a DH when you still have McCutchen putting up solid results doesn't make sense IMO.

Go after Luis Robert if you're opening up the wallet to get anyone.
 

TooManyHumans

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I don't think it makes any sense to target a primary DH until McCutchen actually retires. He's still an above league average hitter and a huge positive on the locker room. If they're actually spending significant assets to get a bat, it should either be a long-term OF or 1B. Going after a DH when you still have McCutchen putting up solid results doesn't make sense IMO.

Go after Luis Robert if you're opening up the wallet to get anyone.
Yeah, Cutch is at a 103 OPS+ right now. I doubt there are many hitters on this team above 100. I don't understand wanting to get rid of one of the only even average hitters on the team.
 
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DJ Spinoza

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I really don't think Rooker has that much value. Robert is going to command the highest price if he is dealt because he's a 26 year old 5-tool CF. We see it all the time where teams devalue corner players who have no real carrying skills, because most teams tend to fill those spots internally.

If we really want to go all-in, Robert is the guy, because although there's injury risk, he's a true blue CF with the power-speed combo to have a major impact. If the White Sox are going to fully blow it up and trade Crochet, then it's totally feasible that they'd like Chandler as a centerpiece, though I think the strongest deal would be one headlined by Coby Mayo from Baltimore.

It is definitely hard to find any real comps for a Rooker trade. He's a late breakout player who is probably having a career year this year, with a batting average and walk rate that makes a pretty much guaranteed 30+% strikeout rate a lot more palatable. I don't like the decontextualized use of this stat but he leads MLB in BABIP at .390, and something that is noticeable about established players who are also right up there with high BABIPs (guys like Witt, Altuve, Yelich, and Kwan) is that they strike out way less. (Of course, it also correlates with hitting the ball hard, as Rooker does well).

In any case, I think that's what the book will be on Rooker. If you buy that he could repeat this type of season even once in 2025, then he is worth a decently hefty price, but there's also a world where he falls off a cliff if his strikeout rate inflates any more.

Oakland is going to have every incentive to deal him, but their trading pattern since forever has been the "surefire contributor" approach to gathering talent. I don't think it's a slam dunk that the proposal kicked around with Priester would get it done, but Priester is exactly the same kind of pitching prospect they have gone for in other deals where they added guys like Sears, Muller, etc.

IMO there's always no way Cutch retires after this season given what he has said and the fact that he bounced back offensively this year. Rooker might not be a perfect fit for that reason. I have no clue how he is defensively, but he's played the field a lot less this year than last year, and last year he only played 58 games in the field (14 this year).


All these factors are why I prefer taking the swing on Jazz Chisholm the most, though now it sounds like he is playing some 2B to try and increase his potential value. I'm skeptical that some of the major contenders like the Yankees are going to really go for a guy like Jazz. I'm equally skeptical about the rumors he's a bad locker room presence, as that just seems based on cliched stereotypes.

But I think he's attainable in a trade and can play an adequate CF, with some room to blossom even further offensively.

The final thing I'd add for now is that Cherington seems to like the lower profile player-for-player type swaps. I don't know what an analogue for the Castro-Falter deal is, but that's the kind of hard to predict move I expect to actually happen.
 

Empoleon8771

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I still think Taylor Ward makes the most sense as a target for the Pirates. He's having a "down" year this year at a 98 OPS+, but his batted ball data is terrific. It's just as good as his 2022 season, where he had a 135 OPS+.

He's not a sexy option, but he'd give them another reliable starter that they shouldn't need to worry about. Ward in LF and Reynolds in RF looks like a pretty solid corner OF duo.
 

DJ Spinoza

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Yeah, I like Ward a good bit too. He's a competent and established player. The one knock on him is that he doesn't really do a ton vs. RHP, but he's having a slightly down year this year and it's not like he's putting up bad stats.

I think that could open up ways for Suwinski to continue being worked into the equation somehow, which I expect will be the plan for this team no matter what.

The other "buy low" option I wouldn't mind is Arozarena. His surface stats are a little bit misleading as he was terrible in the first two months but has been better lately. He also obviously is a noted playoff performer, though trading with the Rays should still make anyone nervous.

I also wonder if there might be a path to using Chapman to try and pick up a controllable bat. Nobody immediately jumps out, but if you got the right player from the Yankees or Orioles, I wouldn't mind that swap.
 
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ChaosAgent

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Yeah, I like Ward a good bit too. He's a competent and established player. The one knock on him is that he doesn't really do a ton vs. RHP, but he's having a slightly down year this year and it's not like he's putting up bad stats.

I think that could open up ways for Suwinski to continue being worked into the equation somehow, which I expect will be the plan for this team no matter what.

The other "buy low" option I wouldn't mind is Arozarena. His surface stats are a little bit misleading as he was terrible in the first two months but has been better lately. He also obviously is a noted playoff performer, though trading with the Rays should still make anyone nervous.

I also wonder if there might be a path to using Chapman to try and pick up a controllable bat. Nobody immediately jumps out, but if you got the right player from the Yankees or Orioles, I wouldn't mind that swap.
Arozarena is also my favorite option for the next few years.
He is expensive in arbitration which bodes badly for Nutting but may keep his price down.
I think Harrington + Cheng is a reasonable guess on what it would take.

I'd also get Winker as a pure rental and trade Chapman as a pure rental.
 

DJ Spinoza

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I don't know if it will affect the bats available, but it also sounds like the big deadline stumbling block might be Skubal. If Detroit would really consider trading him, then he will command a ton of attention, especially since unlike Crochet, he doesn't have potential innings limit worries hanging over his head.
 
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td_ice

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Didn't get beat up by a very stacked lineup. Only one walk, induced 3 easy outs for his fielders
Yeah, nothing hit hard. A couple way out of zone balls to Soto, but that's it. And that walk gave us the Judge matchup everyone wanted to see.


During Shelton interview today on theFAN, he was asked about Skenes facing Judge and how it might not happen. His response is "don't worry, you'll get to see in late Sept.". That's when the Pirates go to NY to face the Yankees, Sept, 27-29.

The importance of that statement is knowing the Pirates don't have plans to shut down Skenes late season.
 

ChaosAgent

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I don't know if it will affect the bats available, but it also sounds like the big deadline stumbling block might be Skubal. If Detroit would really consider trading him, then he will command a ton of attention, especially since unlike Crochet, he doesn't have potential innings limit worries hanging over his head.
I think Baltimore is the only team that could really get him.

But I don't see Detroit trading him. Aside from the Baez albatross they are fine from a payroll perspective. They have Riley Greene and then Skubal-Jackson Jobe-Reese Olson is a really solid #1-3. They get Kerry Carpenter back. I think they dabble with adding again this off-season and hope they don't fail like they did with Baez.
 

Factorial

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Skenes made Soto look silly on a few pitches even if Soto did eventually get the walk.

I think they were both splinkers but someone can correct me if I'm wrong.
 
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Empoleon8771

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Yeah, nothing hit hard. A couple way out of zone balls to Soto, but that's it. And that walk gave us the Judge matchup everyone wanted to see.


During Shelton interview today on theFAN, he was asked about Skenes facing Judge and how it might not happen. His response is "don't worry, you'll get to see in late Sept.". That's when the Pirates go to NY to face the Yankees, Sept, 27-29.

The importance of that statement is knowing the Pirates don't have plans to shut down Skenes late season.

Yeah I don't think Skenes will be shut down, but I do think he'll have a couple of starts skipped down the stretch.

It actually works out really well for the Pirates, because they have a lot of SP depth now that Ortiz and Priester have shown to be MLB competent pitchers. You can skip Skenes and give Priester a 5 inning start without any issue.

You'll have 8 legitimate starters on the team when healthy if Jones is back this year between Keller, Jones, Skenes, Perez, Gonzales, Falter, Ortiz and Priester.
 

td_ice

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Wow, what a performance by the local kid, Mason Miller!

Beautiful K's vs. Ohtani and Turner, and getting a 1-2-3 inning. Made it look easy. His stuff is NASTY. Hit 102 on the gun.


He's a great story.

Yeah I don't think Skenes will be shut down, but I do think he'll have a couple of starts skipped down the stretch.

It actually works out really well for the Pirates, because they have a lot of SP depth now that Ortiz and Priester have shown to be MLB competent pitchers. You can skip Skenes and give Priester a 5 inning start without any issue.

You'll have 8 legitimate starters on the team when healthy if Jones is back this year between Keller, Jones, Skenes, Perez, Gonzales, Falter, Ortiz and Priester.
Yeah, Shelton pretty much said the same. That they will get creative and make sure everyone is rested. Be it a couple skips and/or using our pitching depth to give guys 5-6 days rest.
 
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td_ice

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I also don't think the Pirates will trade any of their top prospects. Just by hearing GMBC interviews and Shelton as well. I don't think either believe that we are "close". Only a fringe contender, and that usually don't involve going for it. But they are still nonetheless looking for a deal, albeit, I am guessing, a small one.

Today Shelton was asked if the Pirates "are a playoff team?". He did not not answer in the affirmative. He just danced around it. And when asked about our needs, he very quickly said "a bat".

EDIT: also on Jones....."can we expect to see Jared Jones pitch again this season?"

Shelton: "yeah definitely. When that will be, I can't tell you, because we just don't know at this time. But we expect him back."
 
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DJ Spinoza

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I think Baltimore is the only team that could really get him.

But I don't see Detroit trading him. Aside from the Baez albatross they are fine from a payroll perspective. They have Riley Greene and then Skubal-Jackson Jobe-Reese Olson is a really solid #1-3. They get Kerry Carpenter back. I think they dabble with adding again this off-season and hope they don't fail like they did with Baez.
If I was a Tigers fan, I wouldn't want to see them trade him. Detroit runs large payrolls when they are trying to win and Skubal seems like the kind of obvious #1 starter you build around, and would lose any trade you involve him in.

That said, Mayo has a huge ceiling and the Orioles also have an extremely highly rated C prospect in Basallo. They also have a bevy of good supplemental prospects, and in theory they could go right after Burnes when he becomes a free agent. I still don't know if I'd want to trade Skubal, but it's definitely the case that only Baltimore can feasibly get him.

The ASG seemed to go perfectly well. Skenes looked great, didn't throw many pitches, and Reynolds came in an had a hit. Now get some rest and gear up for a big Phillies series.
 

ChaosAgent

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I also don't think the Pirates will trade any of their top prospects. Just by hearing GMBC interviews and Shelton as well. I don't think either believe that we are "close". Only a fringe contender, and that usually don't involve going for it. But they are still nonetheless looking for a deal, albeit, I am guessing, a small one.

Today Shelton was asked if the Pirates "are a playoff team?". He did not not answer in the affirmative. He just danced around it. And when asked about our needs, he very quickly said "a bat".
There is no question that we need one or probably two external outfielders for the next 3-4 years in Skenes' tenure. They have very little on the farm in terms of OF and are already hinting at Reynolds moving to 1B by next year.

The question to me is how much of a premium do we pay now in going after an OF vs. waiting for the off-season? Would Arozarena for instance cost much more now than he would in November? Or Chisholm? I am not honestly sure. I could see Chisholm's market collapsing. To me it isn't an issue to trade one of our 3 pitching prospects (Chandler, Harrington, Ashcraft) for one of those guys. I also think Miami would have some interest in Davis.

The other option is to just get a rental, trading a 45FV kinda prospect like Lonnie White or Cheng or Barco. Personally I think Winker was an outstanding hitter dating back to his time in Cincinatti. He would be a great middle-of-the-order type hitter here the rest of this year.
If I was a Tigers fan, I wouldn't want to see them trade him. Detroit runs large payrolls when they are trying to win and Skubal seems like the kind of obvious #1 starter you build around, and would lose any trade you involve him in.

That said, Mayo has a huge ceiling and the Orioles also have an extremely highly rated C prospect in Basallo. They also have a bevy of good supplemental prospects, and in theory they could go right after Burnes when he becomes a free agent. I still don't know if I'd want to trade Skubal, but it's definitely the case that only Baltimore can feasibly get him.

The ASG seemed to go perfectly well. Skenes looked great, didn't throw many pitches, and Reynolds came in an had a hit. Now get some rest and gear up for a big Phillies series.

I guess the Yankees if the Tigers are over the moon on Jasson Dominguez. Maybe someone takes Baez's contract?

I also think that the Dodgers farm system has finally, finally been devalued. While they are a great organization they have barely developed anything internally as of late aside from Smith. The system is perpetually overhyped because the names are always in trade talk, but the team in actuality is just that lethal #1-5 in the batting order - 4 of whom came externally. Point being I don't see a headliner there worthy of landing Tarik Skubal.
 

td_ice

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There is no question that we need one or probably two external outfielders for the next 3-4 years in Skenes' tenure. They have very little on the farm in terms of OF and are already hinting at Reynolds moving to 1B by next year.
I know that is a possible sobering reality, but man just reading that stinks.

Gotta get this guy extended/signed.
 

DJ Spinoza

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I think it's also worth just disregarding everything that Cherington in particular says or seems to have attributed to him. He's never straightforward in his comments and we know that this front office tends to operate in total secrecy and at times misdirection.

I don't say any of this as some kind of wish fulfillment that we are working on a surprise mega deal for Robert or something, but I do think it will be wait and see and we aren't necessarily going to be out on anyone who might be available (other than Crochet or Skubal, for obvious reasons).

My early impression of Cherington was that he wasn't afraid to be a direction and be aggressive. That's changed in recent years, but we haven't arguably had a contention window until this season. He should have done more over the winter, and I think this runs the risk of being revisionist and letting his inaction off the hook somewhat, but Jones' step forward, Keller cementing he's for real, and above all Skenes' total dominance does change the equation.

I think the sober assessment is ultimately still that next year is the prime year where there should be higher expectations and more pressure, but there's no excuse. You have the owner and manager saying the words "we need bats" every time a microphone is in front of them. Something has to give at some point.
 
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DJ Spinoza

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I've only seen it as speculation, but maybe I overlooked something. It would definitely have to be something that was done over the offseason with Reynolds' sign-off. He seems to me to have stepped up a little bit more defensively just from the eye test, in terms of doing the necessary things like taking the right reads on balls and getting the ball into second base to hold a guy to a single when possible. His arm isn't plus, but he's made some decent throws home and isn't showing the candy arm he had in years past to me.

We also lack so much in OF right now that I find it tricky to imagine. Given how well the clubhouse seems to have taken to Rowdy, not to mention the fans, I actually could see a reunion at a modest raise next year. Nobody else is coming for that job, we aren't gonna spend a ton on someone different, and I also doubt Rowdy will get a big offer from somebody else. The only thing I could see is if we ended up bringing in a younger, controllable 1B/DH type in a minor deal.

Listened to a Ken Rosenthal show last night and he seemed to want to push that the deadline will still be active despite what a lot of people are saying. At least in terms of volume, he still expects a good amount of trades, and he said he thinks Crochet is the biggest name he expects to probably move, though wouldn't guarantee it. He didn't talk about Robert.

He stressed heavily that the Marlins will trade anyone and expects Jazz to go. Jazz is tricky because we probably don't have any need for him at 2B and he's not a plus defender in the OF, though it depends on what metric you are using. I am skeptical we'll actually be interested, but to me he seems like the prime opportunity to get a CF and bet on his ceiling still being a little bit higher than what he has shown in the past 2-3 years.

He's comfortably a 2-win player and adds some dynamism including a legit threat on the basepaths. The other factor for me is just that I'd expect their to be less competition, and we can certainly go toe to toe with the Yankees if he is on their radar. Baltimore is also a team that's very hard to predict. On the one hand, you might expect them to just go for broke and get Crochet, or maybe even Crochet and Robert in a massive blockbuster. On the other hand, they have tended not to operate in that way under Elias, though there could be some pressure with Burnes and Santander probably set to leave. I say this because if Baltimore wanted to pivot towards Jazz, then they could probably acquire him while topping what might be comfortable for us and still not really touch a lot of their top group.

I dunno, where my head is at right now is that Jazz is the right big swing to take, but I see us much more interested in a cheaper option like Ward. I think we're still clinging to some hope that Suwinski can be at least a part-time CF and I just don't see it. I like the idea of Rooker a lot, but that's another issue if you have him as a poor defender in RF already, Reynolds average in LF, and then nobody plus in CF, which means a real necessity to continue rostering a defense-only OF. I just see Jazz as having the best fit for our needs on top of being the most exciting and in principle attainable.
 
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