I'm all for trading him, if Bednar is coming back. I don't think we really need him anymore with some of the other guys stepping up. Nicolas, Mlodzinski. Those 2, Holderman, Bednar, I think we are good in terms of leverage guys.
OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Dull days of July
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Empoleon8771
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I think Chapman is a no-brainer to trade, just because:
1. It opens up some money for the Pirates to use on bats, since they still owe Chapman probably around $4-$5 million for the rest of the year.
2. Chapman is pretty redundant on the team with the bullpen depth the Pirates have.
3. Relievers are always in high demand, so you'll likely get a solid return for Chapman even with him being mediocre this year.
I think he's a good reliever with control issues, I just don't see the Pirates as needing him anymore.
1. It opens up some money for the Pirates to use on bats, since they still owe Chapman probably around $4-$5 million for the rest of the year.
2. Chapman is pretty redundant on the team with the bullpen depth the Pirates have.
3. Relievers are always in high demand, so you'll likely get a solid return for Chapman even with him being mediocre this year.
I think he's a good reliever with control issues, I just don't see the Pirates as needing him anymore.
DJ Spinoza
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There's probably an argument for not trading him if you are confident in the team making the playoffs, because whatever you can do to shorten games is extremely beneficial.
That said, he's a POS and if he has an off game or string of games, he's basically an auto-loss. I would find it hard to get upset about trading him unless the return was total garbage. And in a seller's market where there are maybe 2-3 other guys available, none of whom have the playoff experience he has, you should be able to do decently well.
I was actually trying to eye Baltimore's list to see what might be possible for Chapman, since they are surely going to want relief help in addition to the SP help that they need. I don't like just blanket talking about "FV" in trade calculations because I think actual teams weigh a lot more factors than fans casually looking over prospect lists and so on, but it's at least a somewhat useful tool.
If I am not mistaken, Cole Ragans was in that outside looking in 40/45 FV type tier (I see FG having him as a 40 when he graduated, which is somewhat surprising). It's hard to compare pitchers and batters, and Ragans exploded after the trade in a way that no one saw. The other player in the deal was a young Dominican player who is a longer-term prospect and impossible to evaluate from the sidelines in terms of a comp now.
In any case, Baltimore already has a pretty crowded OF mix and still has a deep group of prospects. It's possible or even likely that some of these guys could be ticketed for a different trade, but there's still a ton of depth. Cowser and Kjerstad are already in the majors, and Mayo and Norby are both big bats that might be ticketed for the OF. They have Bradfield as a high floor CF defender, Fabian as a high power, low hit, strong defense CF, and Beavers as an all around talent.
With the exception of Bradfield, all those guys are AA or above, meaning they will be knocking on the door soon as well as a surely crowded 40-man roster. I think my target would be Fabian. He's a capable plus defender in CF and although the swing and miss is a worry, he's cut it down and still managed to produce real plus power with it. Maybe he's more attainable for this reason, too. Beavers is a more attractive all around player and I'd take him in a heartbeat. Both of them are in the 45 tier depending on where you look. I think that's attainable as a centerpiece in a deal for a leverage reliever with tons of playoff experience including rings.
That said, he's a POS and if he has an off game or string of games, he's basically an auto-loss. I would find it hard to get upset about trading him unless the return was total garbage. And in a seller's market where there are maybe 2-3 other guys available, none of whom have the playoff experience he has, you should be able to do decently well.
I was actually trying to eye Baltimore's list to see what might be possible for Chapman, since they are surely going to want relief help in addition to the SP help that they need. I don't like just blanket talking about "FV" in trade calculations because I think actual teams weigh a lot more factors than fans casually looking over prospect lists and so on, but it's at least a somewhat useful tool.
If I am not mistaken, Cole Ragans was in that outside looking in 40/45 FV type tier (I see FG having him as a 40 when he graduated, which is somewhat surprising). It's hard to compare pitchers and batters, and Ragans exploded after the trade in a way that no one saw. The other player in the deal was a young Dominican player who is a longer-term prospect and impossible to evaluate from the sidelines in terms of a comp now.
In any case, Baltimore already has a pretty crowded OF mix and still has a deep group of prospects. It's possible or even likely that some of these guys could be ticketed for a different trade, but there's still a ton of depth. Cowser and Kjerstad are already in the majors, and Mayo and Norby are both big bats that might be ticketed for the OF. They have Bradfield as a high floor CF defender, Fabian as a high power, low hit, strong defense CF, and Beavers as an all around talent.
With the exception of Bradfield, all those guys are AA or above, meaning they will be knocking on the door soon as well as a surely crowded 40-man roster. I think my target would be Fabian. He's a capable plus defender in CF and although the swing and miss is a worry, he's cut it down and still managed to produce real plus power with it. Maybe he's more attainable for this reason, too. Beavers is a more attractive all around player and I'd take him in a heartbeat. Both of them are in the 45 tier depending on where you look. I think that's attainable as a centerpiece in a deal for a leverage reliever with tons of playoff experience including rings.
Coastal Kev
There will be "I told you so's" Bet on it
How does that "open up money"?? There isn't a cap and Nutting is making a fortune yearly.
Trading chap's salary only will increase profit.
DJ Spinoza
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I forgot to include Stowers in speculating about Baltimore/Chapman. So that makes their young OF group include Cowser, Kjerstad, Stowers, Mayo, Norby, Beavers, Fabian, and Bradfield. That's 8 players, with the first 3 already being young MLB players, the next three knocking/pounding on the door, and Bradford still a bit away.
That doesn't include Austin Hays, who is in a small side platoon but seems to be mainly holding the fort. Mullins is still the CF on a lot of nights when I flip over to them, though his value has gone down this year and he is somewhat expensive, especially given that he's struggling more offensively. Still, I don't know that there's a slam dunk CF in the prospect group outside of Fabian and Bradfield. Cowser has played there a good bit, so he seems like Plan A for the moment from the outside looking in.
Since Mullins is one of a few veterans, I don't know that they'd trade him in the middle of a big postseason surge, but I also can't imagine that he's in their plans beyond this season.
I bring this up because maybe there's some room for a kind of needs-based trade, where we swap Chapman for Mullins and a corner OF prospect. Mullins is no sure thing, but he's much more passable than Suwinski and Taylor. If it took adding a pitching prospect, it would seem to be a good way to use depth to address present and future needs. This is a little too video game-y, but maybe they'd even be interested in something like Chapman/Taylor/Pitching prospect for Mullins/1 of Beaver/Stowers/Fabian. Taylor would be easier to hide in their lineup and gives them a true plus CF defender as a playoff substitution.
Ultimately, this is a lot of wishcasting, but I think Baltimore and Pittsburgh make good trade partners, for Chapman and potentially in broader deals too. Even in terms of just prospect for prospect, I would imagine they'd have interest in a close to MLB polished SP like Ashcraft or Harrington. A lot hinges on what other kinds of trades they make, but they have plenty of depth and a desperate need for pitching both now and next year. It's not even that crazy that they'd keep most of these guys in a potential Crochet trade, as they could headline that with just Norby/Mayo and their top tier catching prospect Basallo. Assuming you want 5 of those guys for starting spots and bench/depth (which itself assumes Mullins and Hays are gone in 2025), there's still multiple guys leftover with no place to play them.
The other thing I keep coming back to is that the major hole on this team is CF, and a big part of that is the Suwinski question. It really seems to me that management wants him to seize that job, but he's just fallen off so badly and not really shown any signs of his old self beyond a couple games at a time. In a way, I think you have to understand their patience, as the guy flirted with 30 HRs and had at least passable CF defense. Even not considering our depth, that's valuable and not worth just kicking to the curb. I think it probably would have been better for him to stay down in the minors, but we lack any semblance of depth.
In any case, my rambling here still leads me back to Jazz Chisholm. I don't think we'll get involved, so it's probably not worth dwelling, but I can't help but feel that he's the best of the available options given our situation. I would not complain about Rooker, but adding him complicates roster flexibility and roles, and still leaves us with a massive problem in CF that would be compounded more when he or Cutch is in RF (presumably).
Taylor Ward is slightly different in that he's better defensively, but he's more solid offensively and I'd almost rather live with defensive headaches for a way better bat, assuming cost is similar. Ward also just doesn't really address the CF situation.
Those are my thoughts on the state of things headed towards another long day with no baseball tomorrow. My gut says Baltimore probably just isn't trading Mullins right now, preferring to try and make a winning push this year and then a hopeful shift in the offseason (it seems easy to guess that regardless of how things play out for them, they won't want expensive veterans like Mullins and Hays for next year). But if you could pick him up, then that's an outside the box way to get a better CF who is more passable defensively.
Jazz is a better target in my view, because he's got way more offensive ceiling. It's very possible that we haven't seen his best MLB season yet, and so if things go well, you could hit huge with him in 2025 and 2026. Even as things stand, he's a well-above average bat who adds speed at the top of the lineup along with power. He can play well enough to address our major weakness for this year and the years to come, and maybe Suwinski still figures it out in a corner, or we can re-evaluate things in the offseason by acquiring a dedicated RH bat who can mash lefties. Lane Thomas would be perfect in that mould (and I think all else being equal, I'd rather try for him than Ward), but that's a topic for a different day and I'm not trying to add any more to this.
tldr; is that Jazz checks the most boxes. He's the riskier swing, but I assume the bidding won't be as intense. You can pay an adequate price and then maybe swing some minor deals as well -- I'd be reticent to sell low on Suwisnki, but maybe there's a swap out there that makes sense. Rowdy has performed enough that I think you just ignore 1B for the time being and put all the eggs in finding an outfielder, above all a CF.
That doesn't include Austin Hays, who is in a small side platoon but seems to be mainly holding the fort. Mullins is still the CF on a lot of nights when I flip over to them, though his value has gone down this year and he is somewhat expensive, especially given that he's struggling more offensively. Still, I don't know that there's a slam dunk CF in the prospect group outside of Fabian and Bradfield. Cowser has played there a good bit, so he seems like Plan A for the moment from the outside looking in.
Since Mullins is one of a few veterans, I don't know that they'd trade him in the middle of a big postseason surge, but I also can't imagine that he's in their plans beyond this season.
I bring this up because maybe there's some room for a kind of needs-based trade, where we swap Chapman for Mullins and a corner OF prospect. Mullins is no sure thing, but he's much more passable than Suwinski and Taylor. If it took adding a pitching prospect, it would seem to be a good way to use depth to address present and future needs. This is a little too video game-y, but maybe they'd even be interested in something like Chapman/Taylor/Pitching prospect for Mullins/1 of Beaver/Stowers/Fabian. Taylor would be easier to hide in their lineup and gives them a true plus CF defender as a playoff substitution.
Ultimately, this is a lot of wishcasting, but I think Baltimore and Pittsburgh make good trade partners, for Chapman and potentially in broader deals too. Even in terms of just prospect for prospect, I would imagine they'd have interest in a close to MLB polished SP like Ashcraft or Harrington. A lot hinges on what other kinds of trades they make, but they have plenty of depth and a desperate need for pitching both now and next year. It's not even that crazy that they'd keep most of these guys in a potential Crochet trade, as they could headline that with just Norby/Mayo and their top tier catching prospect Basallo. Assuming you want 5 of those guys for starting spots and bench/depth (which itself assumes Mullins and Hays are gone in 2025), there's still multiple guys leftover with no place to play them.
The other thing I keep coming back to is that the major hole on this team is CF, and a big part of that is the Suwinski question. It really seems to me that management wants him to seize that job, but he's just fallen off so badly and not really shown any signs of his old self beyond a couple games at a time. In a way, I think you have to understand their patience, as the guy flirted with 30 HRs and had at least passable CF defense. Even not considering our depth, that's valuable and not worth just kicking to the curb. I think it probably would have been better for him to stay down in the minors, but we lack any semblance of depth.
In any case, my rambling here still leads me back to Jazz Chisholm. I don't think we'll get involved, so it's probably not worth dwelling, but I can't help but feel that he's the best of the available options given our situation. I would not complain about Rooker, but adding him complicates roster flexibility and roles, and still leaves us with a massive problem in CF that would be compounded more when he or Cutch is in RF (presumably).
Taylor Ward is slightly different in that he's better defensively, but he's more solid offensively and I'd almost rather live with defensive headaches for a way better bat, assuming cost is similar. Ward also just doesn't really address the CF situation.
Those are my thoughts on the state of things headed towards another long day with no baseball tomorrow. My gut says Baltimore probably just isn't trading Mullins right now, preferring to try and make a winning push this year and then a hopeful shift in the offseason (it seems easy to guess that regardless of how things play out for them, they won't want expensive veterans like Mullins and Hays for next year). But if you could pick him up, then that's an outside the box way to get a better CF who is more passable defensively.
Jazz is a better target in my view, because he's got way more offensive ceiling. It's very possible that we haven't seen his best MLB season yet, and so if things go well, you could hit huge with him in 2025 and 2026. Even as things stand, he's a well-above average bat who adds speed at the top of the lineup along with power. He can play well enough to address our major weakness for this year and the years to come, and maybe Suwinski still figures it out in a corner, or we can re-evaluate things in the offseason by acquiring a dedicated RH bat who can mash lefties. Lane Thomas would be perfect in that mould (and I think all else being equal, I'd rather try for him than Ward), but that's a topic for a different day and I'm not trying to add any more to this.
tldr; is that Jazz checks the most boxes. He's the riskier swing, but I assume the bidding won't be as intense. You can pay an adequate price and then maybe swing some minor deals as well -- I'd be reticent to sell low on Suwisnki, but maybe there's a swap out there that makes sense. Rowdy has performed enough that I think you just ignore 1B for the time being and put all the eggs in finding an outfielder, above all a CF.
DJ Spinoza
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I'm all for managing Skenes' innings, and pushing him to the Cardinals series is probably part of that, but it seems like a mistake not to throw him in this series. Dodging Wheeler... Nola can be hit at times, but Sanchez is underrated. Hard to see 2 wins in this group, but maybe we can win a weird one to kick it off.
Edit: It's even more surprising that Keller isn't getting the ball. Martin Perez inspires no confidence in me. I hope Keller isn't dealing with some kind of nagging injury.
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bigdaddyk88
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MrBrightside
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Unless Keller is hurt, this is inexcusable. Just not a serious organization to go into this series after 4 days off and with Keller throwing only 3 innings on Sunday without your top 2 available starters.
The 2025 MLB schedules came out today.
Pirates with a very interesting March and April start. 7 games away in FLA, Miami and TB respectively.
Then home opener and 3 game series with the Yankees. Followed by 3 game home stand vs. STL. Interesting that there is no open date the day after opener. So if rained out, guessing it would a DH next day.
Also a 3 game home stand vs. Cleveland in April. And an away series with LA Dodgers, 3 games.
June features a 3 game home stand with Houston, as well as the Texas Rangers.
Pirates with a very interesting March and April start. 7 games away in FLA, Miami and TB respectively.
Then home opener and 3 game series with the Yankees. Followed by 3 game home stand vs. STL. Interesting that there is no open date the day after opener. So if rained out, guessing it would a DH next day.
Also a 3 game home stand vs. Cleveland in April. And an away series with LA Dodgers, 3 games.
June features a 3 game home stand with Houston, as well as the Texas Rangers.
ChaosAgent
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I like Chisholm but it also becomes much more palatable for me if Miami would take Davis almost 1-for-1.
I know we've been around and around on Davis, but we desperately need an impact bat and there is 0 faith that it's him. Bart is doing well and our top hitter not in the majors is Endy who is a superior defensive catcher. Davis needs stress-free reps to learn to hit major league pitching. Miami offers an entire half-season of that. They have nothing, absolutely nothing, at the catcher position.
Davis should be valued at this point as a low-ranked top 100 prospect or maybe just a bit worse than that. That should be approximately Chisholm's value on the market.
Chisholm for Davis seems like a perfect value-swap to me, assuming Miami likes Davis.
ChaosAgent
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A's To Promote Jacob Wilson
The Athletics are calling up top infield prospect Jacob Wilson, reports Martín Gallegos of MLB.com (X link). Last year's sixth overall …
www.mlbtraderumors.com
As much as I simp for Langford, holy hell Jack Wilson's kid could be the 2nd best dude in the 2023 draft.
"Can't miss" is applicable in this case. 13 Ks in 200 ABs? I know his Dad never had power outside of when he hopped on the juice but the son could be Luis Arraez +++
bigdaddyk88
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Most reports say Jazz wouldn’t fetch that much this is the 1st season since 2021 where he is going to play 100 plus games. He isn’t great in cf or at 2nd. The athletic had a report that he is the most overrated player in the league
ChaosAgent
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And what is Henry Davis then? Two years away from being Joey Barted to another org for free.
Trade makes sense. Both guys need changes of scenery.
If anyone needs a good laugh, Tim Williams dark money Pirates blogs rant on twitter is primo stuff.
DJ Spinoza
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It wouldn't be an automatic no from me because it's addressing a need, but I just don't get the rush to ditch Davis when his value has fallen off a cliff.
He could never punch back and end up as a bust. But guys sometimes have full bad years. This time last year, everyone has written Gonzales off entirely and now he's proving a lot of people wrong. He definitely needs MLB at-bats to get better, but I think the situation with him is that he'll have to fully rebuild the swing and approach over the winter.
I also think Miami probably prefers prospects over mid-20s players who have already debuted. It's going to be a tear down to the studs rebuild there. Jazz is a good trade chip, but he's not the kind of guy who commands a huge haul. This seems like the popular, default non-Chandler starting point, but I think starting a deal with Harrington would make some sense here.
I'm still fairly skeptical we'll look to actually make an impact trade, but we'll see. I wouldn't be surprised if we just try to target Pham or Winker as a pure rental, which wouldn't be the end of the world since OF bats are desperately needed, but it would really be frustrating to not shake things up and end up back at square one in the offseason.
Actually listening to Mackey's appearance on NS9 as I type this up, and I am surprised to hear him say that he thinks the main goal will be getting someone for a long-term solution over a rental. He might be just baselessly speculating, but that's at least a good sign.
I still come back to Jazz as the main viable option. People will raise questions about whether he's too much of a handful in the locker room, but it's very difficult to find someone who can play CF well enough and also hit. Our current composition doesn't lend itself very well to acquiring a corner bat, especially one who is barely playable like Rooker.
One idea that Jim brought up which I don't mind at all is Daulton Varsho, assuming the Jays sell. 2 years of control after this, he's a plus fielder who can at least wield an average bat and has some pop. The Jays just acquired him 2 years ago, but they have to pick a different direction and their farm system isn't very deep. Maybe he gives you some stability in CF and you can look to either a rental or an offseason acquisition to address the corners. As a side-note, I didn't realize just how horrible the stats have Reynolds' OF defense this year.
All told, we're probably going to have to put a pin in all of this until after the homestand at least. You sort of feel like they need to capture momentum and start out 4-2, and sending Martin Perez out vs the Phillies doesn't really inspire confidence out of the gate.
bigdaddyk88
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Davis still has potential he is only 24 you don’t throw him away in a deal for a guy who isn’t really upgrade. Jazz is probably going to fetch a teams 6tg or lower prospect maybe 2 of them
MrBrightside
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He's always been a bizarre, self-important clown but his recent devolution into a self-described homeless, tortured, and smartest man in the world has been something else.
DJ Spinoza
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Completely fiending for baseball and yet it's Martin Perez on the bump tonight. All I can say is that I hope he proves me wrong.
BusinessGoose
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Totally. I'm like let's get back to games, of course it's a night game... And I I'm sure we're gonna get right back to frustrating execution. But i am gonna wear my hat around town and hope for the best.
A's were kicking PHI ass before the ASG... But I didn't really look to see if PHI was resting half their team that was going to the all-star game or not.
ImporterExporter
"You're a boring old man"
Scratch out 2 of 3 from Philly. Doesn't have to be perfect, but please just play fundamentally sound baseball. Don't give away runs.
If you can win this series, it'll be a springboard for the rest of the year. Especially against one of the top 3 teams in the league.
If you can win this series, it'll be a springboard for the rest of the year. Especially against one of the top 3 teams in the league.
Yeah, sucks no Skenes but I get it. Save him for a div. opponent, and push him back a bit as way to save innings for later.
As for no Keller? I'm a bit puzzled on that. Mackey was on today, and said there is no intel that Keller is dealing with anything.
As for no Keller? I'm a bit puzzled on that. Mackey was on today, and said there is no intel that Keller is dealing with anything.
Pengwins
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we really need Ke'Bryan Hayes to catch fire like he did in each of the last 2 seasons
BusinessGoose
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Just knock a couple singles and a double every two days would be immense improvement.
We kill so many runs by having a dead middle/bottom of order, where by the time we get someone to second+ theres two outs and some chucklef*** strikes out swinging lol.
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