DJ Spinoza
Registered User
- Aug 7, 2003
- 25,923
- 4,494
I had to go all the way back to the previous locked thread for this writeup. Almost slipped my mind to stay on track given all the hubbub with the draft and the layoff. I made a mistake here in not counting the 4th game of the Mets series.
Starting record: 40-43
Record over stretch: 8-5
Ending record: 48-48
We'll take an 8-5 stretch any day of the week, even if the path we took to get there was a bit frustrating. We dropped a winnable Cardinals series thanks to a poor Keller showing and blowing a Martin Perez masterclass. Then we split a winnable Mets series. But we battled tough on the road to a 5-1 finish with an improbable series victory vs the Brewers and handling business against a fully checked out White Sox team.
From a long view, there's no way to complain, but you can just feel the same issues rearing their head every little bit. Ultimately I think the truth is that we are still on a razor's edge and the season could really go in either direction, which is fitting for such a consistently mediocre team. A lot of people keep pointing at the solid record since Skenes has been promoted, and it's definitely the case that if we maintain that type of pace, we have a very good chance at a wild card berth.
My opinion is that the mediocrity and missed opportunities sort of cut both ways. Mediocrity has helped us stay within striking distance of a really exciting run, as those who might point to Arizona's sub-20% playoff odds last August can point out. We can talk ourselves blue in the face about any frustrating thing that we want to nitpick, but the fundamental reality is that if you are close enough to the playoffs at this time of the year (and especially in 3-4 more weeks), you are in the hunt no matter what. I also think that the feeling of missed opportunity lies equally as much with how many other truly mediocre teams are kicking around, which is something that helps maintain the crazy parity for most every team.
Right now, the White Sox, Marlins, and maybe the Rockies, A's, and Angels are the bottom barrel teams, but the latter three can all grind out wins occasionally. I think it's mainly the Phillies who are the major threat this year, though they scuffled slightly in the last 10 or so games before the break (but winning every single series is hardly sustainable).
Two more things: 1) we are about to truly enter into the gauntlet of the season. Phillies will be tough, then there are 6 games vs a Diamondbacks team in short order, along with Cardinals, Astros, Padresx2, Mariners, and maybe Dodgers with Mookie back. That's the next month, and surviving that with a .500 record still in tact will be tough. I think we'll look back at being swept by the A's and losing a series to the Angels with some real grimacing, as picking up even 3 wins from those 5 losses will feel huge in the coming weeks.
2) The time to take some kind of risk is now. Not only are we in a position to make some kind of run this year, but 2025 isn't guaranteed, even if logically it seems like the window will be more open for us then. The juggernaut teams all have some pretty major weaknesses besides maybe the Phillies. It's hard to feel total confidence that both Skenes and Jones would be capable of a postseason run (and Jones to have the form he showed early on), but the opportunity might be as good now as it will be for several years. And more to the point, even banking on a window that is more open in 2025 requires some investment now. There's no solution to the CF problem in the offseason. Our system is good enough to make a trade and keep producing arms.
Looking ahead: 3 vs. PHI, 3 vs. STL (6 home) + 3 vs. ARI, 3 vs. HOU (6 road)
As I said above, this is the start of a pretty serious month-long gauntlet, so it's put up or shut up time. The Phillies series does not look amazing on paper but as IE said, scratching 2 out of 3, even in ugly fashion, would be enormous in terms of giving us some momentum out of the gate. Assuming Keller isn't hurt or something, having Skenes and Keller vs. St. Louis makes that a "must win" series.
I think we need 7-5 in this stretch. That's enough to plant a flag and really put the management group under a microscope for how they will complement this team at the deadline, which actually falls on game 2 of the Astros series.
6-6 would be plenty survivable, as I don't think the series that follows is quite as tough, though the Padres can be a buzzsaw if they are firing on all cylinders. 5-7 is still maybe enough to hold serve, but it would feel like immediately surrendering that .500 plateau we couldn't get to for so long.
So much feels like it hinges on this Phillies series, because if you open up with a series win, then you have Skenes or Keller going on Monday in all likelihood. I'll close with this: Perez has basically been a tale of two pitchers this season. He either gives you a quality start and stifles the other team to a run or two, or he gets blown up and gives 4-5 before the 5th inning is over and he's out of the game. If he turns in the latter performance tonight against the Phillies, it's probably more like 7-8 and an enormous blow. We do have an off day Thursday before the road trip, but there's still some pressure on him to get into or through the 6th inning to keep the bullpen in good shape for this big stretch.
Outside of basically one start (besides the first one of the year), Nola is pretty much a quality start machine on an average day and pitching into the 7th or 8th on a good day. That means there's almost no margin for error in terms of trying to win a 2-1 or 3-2 type of game. I'll go out on a stupid limb here and make a ridiculous (and ridiculously early) wager: we somehow find a way to turn this improbably matchup into a win, then we make the playoffs. We don't, and it will remain the season of what ifs, as we flounder to something in the mid-to-late 70s win total.
