OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

[td_ice]

Keller doing his part. Only 1 run in 4 IP.

Gotta have the bats wakes up. Tall order vs Musgrove I ,know. But so many guys on this team are hitting under their weight. Gotta be better.

Nice play by VanMeter.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

This is the big test for Keller -- he doesn't really have the swing and miss stuff vs. lefty batters, and now with the speedster on, he needs to put away Grisham and get Cronenworth.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Great work from Keller there -- regardless of the score, he should go back out for the 6th. You have to trust him and you need the innings from the rotation. He's gotten the results today.

 

[td_ice]

Mission accomplished.

 

[NewAgeOutlaw]

Keller does have swing and miss stuff against lefties when his fastball has this much velocity and life.

If this is what he is throwing with his arm built up for the season, lefties will start flailing at the curve and change. He got Profar to pull over on the change earlier.

 

[td_ice]

Ok, let's see how Keller handles the 6th.

 

[dogthateats]

Hell yeah

 

[td_ice]

Haha......Gamel, another one!

Great job by Keller!

You can see the confidence in Mitch growing. Attacking hitters. Looks very comfortable out there. Great body language.

 

[NewAgeOutlaw]

What a stab by Gamel!

6 good inning from a Bucs' starter!

 

[td_ice]

Ugh.....tough to criticize Reynolds cause his natural aggressive base running has served him well. But that was not a good decision. The play was in front of him, and fairly close to 3B.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, it was kinda fluky but not the best look. Musgrove has been so dominant that I'm not sure I can blame him, but it seemed like he only kinda committed and then it was too late.

I don't really get the desire to bank Keller's 6 strong innings with the bottom of the order up this inning. Let him try for 7 and see if it motivates the offense.

 

[td_ice]

Damn......3-0

 

[DJ Spinoza]

At some point initiative has to be taken with regard to guys like Tucker and Yoshi. That's a game/series-losing error.

The rosters shrink tomorrow and I would expect it to be Suwinski and a pitcher who go down, but I think there's a pretty good case to be made that the Tucker experiment has yet again run its course (a pitcher has to go down no matter what I think).

Maybe this was coming anyways with the decision not to let Keller keep rolling.

 

[td_ice]

Frustrating loss. Had our opportunities.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Keller looked fantastic.

Tucker is done here. Which we've said since the beginning.

I like Castillo but he has a big ground ball problem IMO.

Finally in that 8th inning on the Chavis SF I didn't like the lack of aggressiveness of the runners at 2nd and 1st not advancing. It was clear based on where the flyball was that the LF was going home. Just get back and tag when they catch it...you can always advance as the play at the plate is happening. Very disappointing.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Seems like Dreker at Pirates Prospects wants to see Martin get the call. I'm a little bit skeptical that this is mainly due as much to him being vocally anti-Cruz on Twitter as it is to Martin's decent start, but I'm of two minds about this.

On the one hand, given the depth, I think it makes a lot of sense to push Martin to MLB this season for a chunk of ABs once the situation warrants it. And I think it's difficult to argue that Yoshi has earned too much more of a look, since at this point it's really just a question of sunk cost with him and when to eat the cash.

On the other hand, I think the assessment has been that Martin would be eaten alive by MLB pitching, and I'm not sure there's yet any reason to doubt that. He's performing well across the board, but 30% K-rate doesn't bode well, even if it's a baby step in the right direction as Dreker points out.

I think the decision has to be driven by the player rather than only the opportunity. I'm actually fine with giving Yoshi a few more weeks to see if some things can click, given that he's had these kinds of stretches before and is now working with a new hitting coach. But even setting that aside, Yoshi could be DFA'd today and Chavis can take the bulk of the playing time.

Given his profile, Martin has had a pretty decent emergence in AAA. He's probably never going to fully dampen the K questions, but if everything else is there, he can live at 30% and still be an average thumper. I haven't paid as close attention to him in games recently, but I'd like to see him keep going for another 3-4 weeks since it's going to cost a roster spot to add him. I think in general, it also makes sense that there's some other roster churn before you add him -- not just Suwinski back to AA or Yoshi DFA'd, but also clarity on the Tucker situation. Maybe you wait another couple of weeks and see if Cruz moves in the right direction, and then make the requisite moves to bump them up, not to mention Castro or even Bae, who has come on strong recently.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Seems like Dreker at Pirates Prospects wants to see Martin get the call. I'm a little bit skeptical that this is mainly due as much to him being vocally anti-Cruz on Twitter as it is to Martin's decent start, but I'm of two minds about this.

On the one hand, given the depth, I think it makes a lot of sense to push Martin to MLB this season for a chunk of ABs once the situation warrants it. And I think it's difficult to argue that Yoshi has earned too much more of a look, since at this point it's really just a question of sunk cost with him and when to eat the cash.

On the other hand, I think the assessment has been that Martin would be eaten alive by MLB pitching, and I'm not sure there's yet any reason to doubt that. He's performing well across the board, but 30% K-rate doesn't bode well, even if it's a baby step in the right direction as Dreker points out.

I think the decision has to be driven by the player rather than only the opportunity. I'm actually fine with giving Yoshi a few more weeks to see if some things can click, given that he's had these kinds of stretches before and is now working with a new hitting coach. But even setting that aside, Yoshi could be DFA'd today and Chavis can take the bulk of the playing time.

Given his profile, Martin has had a pretty decent emergence in AAA. He's probably never going to fully dampen the K questions, but if everything else is there, he can live at 30% and still be an average thumper. I haven't paid as close attention to him in games recently, but I'd like to see him keep going for another 3-4 weeks since it's going to cost a roster spot to add him. I think in general, it also makes sense that there's some other roster churn before you add him -- not just Suwinski back to AA or Yoshi DFA'd, but also clarity on the Tucker situation. Maybe you wait another couple of weeks and see if Cruz moves in the right direction, and then make the requisite moves to bump them up, not to mention Castro or even Bae, who has come on strong recently.

I realize that first base platoons seem to always work here in theory but never in practice...but Martin/Chavis works really, really, really good in theory.

To me the insult to injury is Yoshi at the dish. Has lost the ability to drive the ball and has become a fat slap hitter. His defense is really bad too. I know he is trying but he needs benched, or something.

Cruz has to EARN a promotion. He is getting worked by AAA pitching. The same AAA pitching that the likes of Alford demolish. Castro should be up at this point though

 

[Coastal Kev]

I realize that first base platoons seem to always work here in theory but never in practice...but Martin/Chavis works really, really, really good in theory.

To me the insult to injury is Yoshi at the dish. Has lost the ability to drive the ball and has become a fat slap hitter. His defense is really bad too. I know he is trying but he needs benched, or something.

Cruz has to EARN a promotion. He is getting worked by AAA pitching. The same AAA pitching that the likes of Alford demolish. Castro should be up at this point though

So who's coming up from Indy before July?

 

[ChaosAgent]

So who's coming up from Indy before July?

I think Castro and Martin for sure. We will see on Mitchell. Shelton seems to be REALLY impressed with Suwinski in the early going; he has this far skipped AAA as a COVID emergency call up but could stick. Castro replacing Tucker is a no-brainer and I hope we are about done with Vanmeter too. Castro looked more competent than either in RF and we know he can play 2nd.

Cruz could go on a tear at which point it would be dumb if he wasn't here. But we said that with the homer last week and he has another substandard week since then.

Marisnick may also be a folk hero for his defense but the guy is in hitting pitcher territory. If he doesn't pick it up he will also be replaced.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I'm honestly of the mindset that the sooner, the better with Cruz, since the opportunity is a bit easier with Newman on the shelf. It's hard to argue this given that the strikeouts have been bad, but let's be honest: he is not in AAA for developmental reasons in the first place. If he has even a decent week this week, I'm fine with bringing him up for the next homestand, though the only potential problem with that is that we get the Dodgers right away.

Still, it should be a fairly even swap with Tucker. I think today we'll see Suwinski and Fletcher go because of the roster shrinking. It's a shame that Castillo still hasn't just been given everyday playing time, though maybe he gets it for the rest of the week and you decide to swap him and Tucker out for Cruz and Castro afterwards.

The priority above almost all else should really be getting Cruz MLB experience. He's been bad at the plate and nobody should make excuses for him, but it's starting to look like the Pirates have really mishandled this situation and it's one they can't afford to do that with, given his impact potential and the lack of it anywhere else on the horizon.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I'm honestly of the mindset that the sooner, the better with Cruz, since the opportunity is a bit easier with Newman on the shelf. It's hard to argue this given that the strikeouts have been bad, but let's be honest: he is not in AAA for developmental reasons in the first place. If he has even a decent week this week, I'm fine with bringing him up for the next homestand, though the only potential problem with that is that we get the Dodgers right away.

Still, it should be a fairly even swap with Tucker. I think today we'll see Suwinski and Fletcher go because of the roster shrinking. It's a shame that Castillo still hasn't just been given everyday playing time, though maybe he gets it for the rest of the week and you decide to swap him and Tucker out for Cruz and Castro afterwards.

The priority above almost all else should really be getting Cruz MLB experience. He's been bad at the plate and nobody should make excuses for him, but it's starting to look like the Pirates have really mishandled this situation and it's one they can't afford to do that with, given his impact potential and the lack of it anywhere else on the horizon.

The Pirates "mishandled" the Cruz situation if you think the psychological impact of getting sent down is why he isn't hitting and not the holes in his swing, running hot & cold, struggling with lefties etc.

You are talking about ROY service time manipulation and the guy is getting blown away by AAA pitching. If he is so overwhelmingly good, this sh1t should be easy for him.

Bring him up once he gets hot, sure, but as of now it looks like the Pirates handled it perfectly.

 

[DanielPlainview]

I mean it’s not like Yoshi has made much of a case for himself. If Martin can hit above the Mendoza it would be an improvement

 

[DJ Spinoza]

The Pirates "mishandled" the Cruz situation if you think the psychological impact of getting sent down is why he isn't hitting and not the holes in his swing, running hot & cold, struggling with lefties etc.

You are talking about ROY service time manipulation and the guy is getting blown away by AAA pitching. If he is so overwhelmingly good, this sh1t should be easy for him.

Bring him up once he gets hot, sure, but as of now it looks like the Pirates handled it perfectly.

I dunno, I do get where this thinking comes from and certainly don't think we will see a promotion of a guy who struck out 4/5 times on Saturday and then was benched Sunday to have two days down.

But I also don't think there's all that much which is truly meaningful about AAA performance. Cherington has shown this several times and there was even praise for it last year. I don't think Cruz had any business going to AAA in the first place -- for me, that's the crux of the issue, and the longer we mess around in the 2022 season, the more negative ripple effects we'll see in the 2023 season.

To put it a slightly different way, I guess I'd say two things: 1) we need to get beyond the idea that AAA performance correlates with anything in MLB. It's purely functional -- you don't want to take a guy struggling and introduce a more difficult challenge to him, but that's all it really is, especially once a player has cleared the AA level and demonstrated what they have. Cruz's hit tool will not magically become more than it is with a good month against AAA pitching. More important than this, though is 2) Like almost every other top prospect, Cruz is likely to struggle for stretches once he is in MLB.

It's from that 1+2 that I get my "therefore, the most important thing is to maximize Cruz's MLB ABs." I don't think we can say anything with certainty about what would have happened in the event that we let him earn a spot out of spring training. He would probably struggle some, and I don't think 6-8 weeks or whatever of AAA will really make any meaningful difference. I think there's a viable case to be made that having him start the season in MLB and take his ups and downs all season would have been best for his development, so long as he is not striking out 40% of the time or something. The Pirates didn't do this for service time reasons, and that's it. There are plenty of ways he could have gotten playing time, including in the OF, where we have played non-OF guys in more than half of the games this season.

I don't think it makes any sense to argue about what would have happened had we handled things differently, since by definition we can't know. But I do think that when Cruz comes up should simply be a functional question: if he can rectify things some this week, then we should go ahead and get moving ASAP. Otherwise, I think there are going to continue to be possible excuses for the foreseeable future. Even if he went on an absolute tear for three weeks, it would mean nothing more than feeling better about some kind of fuzzy correlation.

I do think he's struggled to the point of not allowing for a promotion now, and truthfully it's a real shame because the opportunity for a roster shakeup is right there, and Newman is still out for at least 2 or 3 weeks. I would push this a little bit to say that they could still push him to MLB in a surprise move, but there have been so few good signs and you want him to hit the ground running a little bit. I worry that how it's going to play out is him slowly gaining some momentum, but then "opportunity" suddenly not being there in MLB, and the slow roll to clearing Super Two, which I think has been the goal all along, will continue. That said, Mackey, who always does seem plugged in on decision-making, doesn't seem to think that Super Two is that meaningful.

My best hope at this point is that he can reset from a bad couple of weeks and hit the ground running this week at home in decentish weather, and then get the call by the middle of the month.

Post automatically merged: May 2, 2022

There are probably other guys internally who make more sense, and I've started to think that Shelton is actually not seen as just a placeholder, good vibes coach (it seems like he has a strong impact on front office decisions), but hiring Kendall and having him eventually be the manager makes a lot of sense.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I dunno, I do get where this thinking comes from and certainly don't think we will see a promotion of a guy who struck out 4/5 times on Saturday and then was benched Sunday to have two days down.

But I also don't think there's all that much which is truly meaningful about AAA performance. Cherington has shown this several times and there was even praise for it last year. I don't think Cruz had any business going to AAA in the first place -- for me, that's the crux of the issue, and the longer we mess around in the 2022 season, the more negative ripple effects we'll see in the 2023 season.

To put it a slightly different way, I guess I'd say two things: 1) we need to get beyond the idea that AAA performance correlates with anything in MLB. It's purely functional -- you don't want to take a guy struggling and introduce a more difficult challenge to him, but that's all it really is, especially once a player has cleared the AA level and demonstrated what they have. Cruz's hit tool will not magically become more than it is with a good month against AAA pitching. More important than this, though is 2) Like almost every other top prospect, Cruz is likely to struggle for stretches once he is in MLB.

It's from that 1+2 that I get my "therefore, the most important thing is to maximize Cruz's MLB ABs." I don't think we can say anything with certainty about what would have happened in the event that we let him earn a spot out of spring training. He would probably struggle some, and I don't think 6-8 weeks or whatever of AAA will really make any meaningful difference. I think there's a viable case to be made that having him start the season in MLB and take his ups and downs all season would have been best for his development, so long as he is not striking out 40% of the time or something. The Pirates didn't do this for service time reasons, and that's it. There are plenty of ways he could have gotten playing time, including in the OF, where we have played non-OF guys in more than half of the games this season.

I don't think it makes any sense to argue about what would have happened had we handled things differently, since by definition we can't know. But I do think that when Cruz comes up should simply be a functional question: if he can rectify things some this week, then we should go ahead and get moving ASAP. Otherwise, I think there are going to continue to be possible excuses for the foreseeable future. Even if he went on an absolute tear for three weeks, it would mean nothing more than feeling better about some kind of fuzzy correlation.

I do think he's struggled to the point of not allowing for a promotion now, and truthfully it's a real shame because the opportunity for a roster shakeup is right there, and Newman is still out for at least 2 or 3 weeks. I would push this a little bit to say that they could still push him to MLB in a surprise move, but there have been so few good signs and you want him to hit the ground running a little bit. I worry that how it's going to play out is him slowly gaining some momentum, but then "opportunity" suddenly not being there in MLB, and the slow roll to clearing Super Two, which I think has been the goal all along, will continue. That said, Mackey, who always does seem plugged in on decision-making, doesn't seem to think that Super Two is that meaningful.

My best hope at this point is that he can reset from a bad couple of weeks and hit the ground running this week at home in decentish weather, and then get the call by the middle of the month.

Post automatically merged: May 2, 2022

There are probably other guys internally who make more sense, and I've started to think that Shelton is actually not seen as just a placeholder, good vibes coach (it seems like he has a strong impact on front office decisions), but hiring Kendall and having him eventually be the manager makes a lot of sense.

I guess I get this POV, but Cruz has gotten to the point where he has to turn it around before he comes up. I fully believe the org intended to bring him up around now but it wasn't OPSing .600 or whatever. He is struggling.

IMO we also rushed Alvarez at the upper levels and it hurt him. To name a recent example

 

[Gallatin]

Seems like Dreker at Pirates Prospects wants to see Martin get the call. I'm a little bit skeptical that this is mainly due as much to him being vocally anti-Cruz on Twitter as it is to Martin's decent start, but I'm of two minds about this.

On the one hand, given the depth, I think it makes a lot of sense to push Martin to MLB this season for a chunk of ABs once the situation warrants it. And I think it's difficult to argue that Yoshi has earned too much more of a look, since at this point it's really just a question of sunk cost with him and when to eat the cash.

On the other hand, I think the assessment has been that Martin would be eaten alive by MLB pitching, and I'm not sure there's yet any reason to doubt that. He's performing well across the board, but 30% K-rate doesn't bode well, even if it's a baby step in the right direction as Dreker points out.

I think the decision has to be driven by the player rather than only the opportunity. I'm actually fine with giving Yoshi a few more weeks to see if some things can click, given that he's had these kinds of stretches before and is now working with a new hitting coach. But even setting that aside, Yoshi could be DFA'd today and Chavis can take the bulk of the playing time.

Given his profile, Martin has had a pretty decent emergence in AAA. He's probably never going to fully dampen the K questions, but if everything else is there, he can live at 30% and still be an average thumper. I haven't paid as close attention to him in games recently, but I'd like to see him keep going for another 3-4 weeks since it's going to cost a roster spot to add him. I think in general, it also makes sense that there's some other roster churn before you add him -- not just Suwinski back to AA or Yoshi DFA'd, but also clarity on the Tucker situation. Maybe you wait another couple of weeks and see if Cruz moves in the right direction, and then make the requisite moves to bump them up, not to mention Castro or even Bae, who has come on strong recently.

Mason Martin's K/BB ratio is over 6.0, there's just no way he's an MLB hitter with anything near that. Dude needs major changes to his approach, but that's unlikely at this late date IMO.

That said, got no problem throwing him in there for a couple weeks in place of Yoshi, who appears useless and old.

Post automatically merged: May 2, 2022

I'm honestly of the mindset that the sooner, the better with Cruz, since the opportunity is a bit easier with Newman on the shelf. It's hard to argue this given that the strikeouts have been bad, but let's be honest: he is not in AAA for developmental reasons in the first place. If he has even a decent week this week, I'm fine with bringing him up for the next homestand, though the only potential problem with that is that we get the Dodgers right away.

Still, it should be a fairly even swap with Tucker. I think today we'll see Suwinski and Fletcher go because of the roster shrinking. It's a shame that Castillo still hasn't just been given everyday playing time, though maybe he gets it for the rest of the week and you decide to swap him and Tucker out for Cruz and Castro afterwards.

The priority above almost all else should really be getting Cruz MLB experience. He's been bad at the plate and nobody should make excuses for him, but it's starting to look like the Pirates have really mishandled this situation and it's one they can't afford to do that with, given his impact potential and the lack of it anywhere else on the horizon.

Could not disagree more on Cruz. Dude needs more time, he's just not ready at any level right. That can change in a hurry at this stage, but it has not to this point.