OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

[Gallatin]

I think anyone who really expected them to add real pieces this offseason was always deluding themselves.

Guilty. This was the off-season to spend a little, and accelerate the move towards winning baseball.

So much for that.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Yeah that is not a reasonable ask by the Pirates.

I hate how they're setting this astronomically high price on Reynolds to the point where they'd never trade him, but they're also not making a serious effort in improving the roster.

 

[MrBrightside]

While a guy is only worth in trade what someone is willing to trade for him, Reynolds is an extremely valuable asset no matter how many times superfanempoleon tries to downplay him. He's under control for 3 years - very seldom is an impact bat like this that is under team control for the length of time available - it's extremely valuable. I'm actually trying to think of a comparable player who has this value and who was dealt this far from free agency. Blake Snell is probably the closest parallel, but obviously not a great comparison.

 

[TimmyD]

I would be happy to get a singular piece that Soto got in exchange for Reynolds, let alone a "Soto like return". Give me 1 guy on par with Abrams or Hassell II and I'd be happy. If the Pirates would get Moreno for Reynolds straight up, I'd be happy with that.

I'm also really frustrated that the Pirates couldn't match or exceed what Manaea was offered by the Giants. They keep saying how they want to add a cost controlled starting pitcher, but they've missed out on at least 2 extremely workable UFA contracts between Quintana and Manaea. I would have easily done 3/39 for either of those guys.

It’s not that they “couldn’t….” It’s that they won’t… because they simply don’t actually want to do that… they just want to say that to make it sound like they are actually interested in doing so

 

[Josey Wales]

Yeah that is not a reasonable ask by the Pirates.

I hate how they're setting this astronomically high price on Reynolds to the point where they'd never trade him, but they're also not making a serious effort in improving the roster.

Yeah because I am sure the Yankees are telling him the God's Honest Truth

 

[Empoleon8771]

Plan the f***ing parade or something

To be clear, I'm not mad that they're bringing back Heineman at all. He was great defensively for the Pirates last year with both pitch framing and catching base stealers. I just really hope their catching duo entering next year won't be Delay and Heineman.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Looks like the Brewers pulled off a major coup to get Contreras.

I wouldn't read too much into various rumors coming out about Reynolds. If anything, the firmer the appearance of Cherington is, probably the better. We're at the point where we might need some of the FA dust to settle in order to truly get a sense for which teams are major players for Reynolds. His price should stay sky high because he should not accept a deal that doesn't have a premium prospect as the headliner. To take the Yankees as an example, he is obviously not going to get both Volpe and Dominguez in the same deal, but at least one has to be there, and truthfully with them, I am not convinced that Dominguez can headline (I would need at least Cabrera or Peraza as the second piece).

The Heineman news is BS, but yeah, just a minor move. The needle is not looking like it's moving at all, and also Stumpf is reporting that Cherington prefers 1 year deals, which is very bad news that should get some more light. Manaea's deal is basically a 1 year deal anyways, but if this is what he wants, then it's angling for bandaid improvements to maybe squeeze 75 wins out, which, fine, is better than 100 losses again, but when several players will be possible rental trade candidates and your best player has publicly requested a trade, well... I don't think I even need to finish the sentence.

 

[MrBrightside]

 

[Empoleon8771]

Another contract the Pirates easily could have afforded.

I think they're at the point where the Pirates need to become halfway decent before they'll be able to sign anyone in free agency. You're going to have to get people who want to come to the Pirates and that's not going to happen when they're a 100 loss team. Cherington and Nutting won't overpay to bring in guys.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Also, if the Pirates seriously believe Velasquez is a starting caliber pitcher, they're incredibly dumb. He may have decent swing and miss stuff and alright control, but he gets absolutely crushed whenever he gets hit. That's been his situation in his entire career.

His expected slash line last year was .243/.307/.456, the xBA and xOBP are middle of the pack but the xSLG is among the worst in the league. And that's not a new thing with him, his xSLG has ranked near the bottom in almost every recent year:

2022: .456
2021: .471
2020: .390 (absurdly small sample size, only 34 innings in the lockout shortened season)
2019: .467

You have to go to 2018, which was Velasquez's last solid season (3.75 FIP and 1.4 WAR in 31 starts), for him to actually have decent statcast data.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Stripling and probably Manaea would have both been worth the guaranteed contracts over those two years, though it makes sense why they prefer the flexibility and ability to bounce back and increase the earnings potential by a lot. There is kind of a weird and narrow gap where a team like the Pirates isn't going to go out and make these more significant, quasi one-year deals because of the situation they are in, but that situation is entirely self-imposed and we shouldn't allow this to be an excuse.

It seems pretty clear now that we are far away from offering any free agent a multi-year deal to come and improve the 2023 team and beyond. I get why we need to also see the beyond, but we're also now cheaping out on the improve 2023 option: the decision to plan for a fringe depth guy and swing man to be a guaranteed rotation option vs. paying 10M more for someone with clearer upside speaks for itself.

Probably the best of the remaining options is Wacha, who I'd be fine with as a two-year depth type acquisition. If we're going purely for a veteran innings option who might be moveable, maybe Corey Kluber. There's very little upside in any of this -- at most, Wacha or similar on a two-year deal is at least a little bit of a boost to the immediate future, though not nearly enough to move the needle.

 

[TimmyD]

All these contracts just continue to show that the Pirates simply just don’t want to spend money to put a decent product on the field

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Catcher also doesn't matter all that much because defense is more important, but Zunino at 6M would have been a pretty easy one-year boost to try and take. He's as good defensively as anyone else who might be brought in but adds the possible upside of RH power and balance that is still needed in the lineup.

 

[pistolpete11]

All these contracts just continue to show that the Pirates simply just don’t want to spend money to put a decent product on the field

It's probably at least partially running cover for how cheap they are, but I think there is something to players not wanting to sign with the Pirates because...why would you? Unless they are completely overpaying you (which isn't going to happen because they are cheap), what reason is there to sign with them? Nicest ballpark in America? I don't know if that's even close enough to being true to be a joke anymore.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Moving onto the "even cheap upside FA options are going elsewhere."

I do expect some other dart throw SP option, but if Velasquez is really the primary pitching acquisition..... that's really bad.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Here's a first look at 2023's top Draft prospects

Southeastern Conference teams have won the last three College World Series. Now they're poised to dominate the top of the Draft like no league ever has before. The most players one conference has ever landed in the top five picks is three by the SEC in 2020 with Arkansas’ Heston

www.mlb.com

Decent quick overview from Callis of the 2023 class. When the sources are comparing Crews to Adley and Dollander to Cole, and there's a pretty solid supplementary group behind them. I think this comes through in the write-up, but granting that there is essentially always volatility in MLB drafts, it doesn't seem like there will be a different 1-2 punch unless there is an injury or real underperformance by one of them. We really lucked out in picking 1.1 this year.

 

[Empoleon8771]

It's probably at least partially running cover for how cheap they are, but I think there is something to players not wanting to sign with the Pirates because...why would you? Unless they are completely overpaying you (which isn't going to happen because they are cheap), what reason is there to sign with them? Nicest ballpark in America? I don't know if that's even close enough to being true to be a joke anymore.

Yeah, the issue is that players don't want to sign with a shitty team unless they're getting overpaid, and the Pirates won't overpay to bring in any of these guys.

The team needs to show some sort of promise before you start having players want to come to the Pirates. Having guys raking in AA while the MLB team is losing 100 games isn't going to make MLB veterans want to sign with the Pirates without overpayments, and Pittsburgh as a city isn't night enough to compensate for that. You're seeing the impact that winning has with Baltimore, where they signed Gibson over the Blue Jays likely in part due to the promise they showed in the second half of last year.

 

[ChaosAgent]

"How do you do, fellow enthusiastic yinzers?"


Now this mediocrity is trying to rile it up like "yeahhhhhh black and gold, Vince gonna rep the black & gold babyyyyyyy."

Because Nutting is so bad, Cherington has to be exceptional. Problem is, he's not.

 

[Pens1566]

Yeah, I seriously doubt there's a ton of players interested in coming here unless it's like their last shot.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think there's still a fairly strong dimension of willpower that's lacking. The popularity of these more complicated deals with opt-outs and options does change the dynamic a little bit, in that I could see someone like Manaea or Stripling preferring a fallback in San Francisco if they aren't able to increase their perceived value after just one season, but overall I think it's still the case that money talks for mid-level free agents.

There are also all manner of behind the scenes workings that influence things, which is one area where Cherington was/is supposed to be able to help out. For example, there's speculation that Yarbrough was maybe able to go to KC because he shares an agent with Brady Singer, who the Royals likely want to make a franchise cornerstone.

The deal I'm waiting to see now is Wacha. MLBTR projected him at 2/20M, and it's possible that he may opt for a similar deal to what Manaea and Stripling got. Wacha is a fine mid-rotation pitcher, and I'd say somewhere in between those two guys, each of whom have questions about them as well. If the Pirates offered him that projected contract or maybe something slightly more like 2/24M, that's gotta be a decent calculated risk on both sides. It's not huge enough of a commitment by the Pirates that it would really be costly, and there's enough upside to return value if you can get 140-150 innings out of him in both years. From Wacha's perspective, his value is up right now, but if he has a weak 2023, he'll probably be looking at a much cheaper reclamation deal.

In any case, there's always some risk involved, but so far what we are seeing is that Cherington talked a big talk and then signed a swingman to throw at the rotation. Even if Velasquez is successful, it's not going to amount to anything.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think this firmly takes them out of the Reynolds running. I don't think you pay Kiermaier $9 million if you're not going to start him. That leaves them with Gurriel Jr in LF, Kiermaier in CF and Springer in RF. They also have Merrifield as an OF option as well.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think that's a good guess, although Toronto has often rotated their OFs in recent years, so I could see them still making a run for it, especially because Springer will DH sometimes in order to stay healthy.

The big question with them is really Moreno, though. If we are intent on moving Reynolds while there still are many suitors, rather than risking performance/injury and the deadline, then I think Moreno might be the best headliner that's possible. From their perspective, while he's not a spare part, it makes sense to try and use him if they don't find a decent return for Jansen.

That said, there are teams who could still use a catching upgrade, and so maybe the Jays path will be to deal Jansen for another OF option or some other upgrade. I don't really think they'll find a match with Arizona's OFs, but it could depend on what Toronto thinks about Thomas. Moreno for Thomas really favors Arizona IMO.

I think it's a good bet that we will not deal Reynolds before the season starts. We haven't done anything else to really improve the 2023 team and it's probably a borderline 75-win team at best on paper right now. The OF situation is already pretty thin and losing Reynolds' bat will have a trickle down effect on the rest of the offense. Outside of something really shocking like a Benintendi signing, or maybe some surprise other trade, it's really hard to see how Reynolds gets traded and we go into the season intending to be halfway competitive.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Dodgers grab Syndergaard -- seems like an obvious fit where they can probably get him back up a level.

My guess for who we end up with is Wade Miley. He's an injury risk, but he might actually be pretty successful. I can't really say that I'm surprised about this, but it is really disappointing to have the aggressive stance taken and the direct comment about a multi-year SP commitment only for it now to be a situation where Cherington is looking for one year deals only, at least according to Stumpf.

There are a fading number of SPs around, and I suppose a deal with Wacha might cover the bare minimum of what could be anticipated. Benintendi is basically the sole move left that could in some way justify Cherington's comments and general attitude this offseason, and you have to assume he's in line for a pretty decent payday. Probably the only realistic way that something even interesting might happen this offseason is via trade. Even assuming that Bae is almost a full time regular in the OF, we have middle infield possibilities to trade from.

I would not count this at all as anything to get too worked up about, but in terms of interesting possibilities, I would like to take the gamble on Jo Adell. It's hard to gauge his value, but it seems pretty clear that he's a spare part on the Angels, and they might see a more defined player or even prospect as having better value for them. Adell's got some red flags in terms of how much he's struggled, but he's a RH OF and could complement what we have out there pretty well, not to mention the potential upside if we can get him right. There's basically no move where I will be granting any good feeling towards BC, but something like this will at least keep me a little bit engaged and not just expecting more of the same in terms of waiting for prospects to improve while doing jack shit otherwise.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Dodgers grab Syndergaard -- seems like an obvious fit where they can probably get him back up a level.

My guess for who we end up with is Wade Miley. He's an injury risk, but he might actually be pretty successful. I can't really say that I'm surprised about this, but it is really disappointing to have the aggressive stance taken and the direct comment about a multi-year SP commitment only for it now to be a situation where Cherington is looking for one year deals only, at least according to Stumpf.

There are a fading number of SPs around, and I suppose a deal with Wacha might cover the bare minimum of what could be anticipated.

Bro you're not excited about Vince Velazquez???

I'm excited about seeing him dominate the jagoffs in the Black & Gold.

He's got attitude (tattoos)

 

[DJ Spinoza]