OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

[DJ Spinoza]

I think there's still a good degree of "if" with Reynolds. He's gone through cold spells at the plate. I think he's very good, but I could be convinced that 2021 was an outlier peak. If he settles into more like the player he was in 2022 and is a fringe CF, I could see it dampening what he could earn away from the top FAs.

For the sake of argument, though, I've come back around to the idea that the Pirates shouldn't really be able to get away with not "risking" something like this:
2023 - 10M (age 28)
2024 - 17M
2025 - 18M
2026 - 22M
2027 - 25M
2028 - 24M
2029 - 26M
2030 - 18M (age 35)

That's just a back of the napkin approximation, but it's an even 8 years, 150 million. I slightly bumped up what he would earn with team control and then was reasonably conservative with the yearly totals.

Where I am probably in between the argument that's happening is that I'm not fully sold Reynolds gets an enormous payday in three years. If we shave those off, it's a 5 year, 125 million dollar "FA" contract, and I agree that better than that could be possible for him, but I don't think it's absolutely a guarantee.

The flip side to this, though, is that I don't really see this ballpark of an extension as something that is too "risky" for the Pirates. The only way it becomes a true and actual albatross is if his power numbers nosedive, but even shifting to LF and never really having another season like 2021, he'd still be tradable in his age 32 season in 2027 with a balance of something like 4 years, 90 million left on his deal.

I think the Pirates really have less and less of an excuse, and if their excuse is the pretty weak one of risk, then to be actually persuaded, I need to see a chunk of what would have been Reynolds money given to Benintendi or someone else who improves the team in 2023 and beyond. I've said it a lot of times, but my guess on things breaking down is that the Pirates were willing to go through 2027 but not guarantee anything beyond that. Perhaps there's funny business with a super friendly team option for 2028, or even that the 2026 and 2027 money isn't all the way guaranteed.

Those things would be full insults to Reynolds because they would essentially guarantee that the contract isn't worth it for him if he continues to perform well enough. Even if he just got 5/90 upon hitting free agency, that's a 120M total if we assume 30M for the control years. And 5/90 is probably a relative low end assumption, especially if the market is pretty thin in 2027. However, I guess I will reiterate a bit of skepticism in wrapping this up in the sense that I don't think every GM is sold on Reynolds as a CF option right now, and I don't think most teams would be looking at him for a mega-extension like this if they traded for him.

If he went to the Yankees, for example, his main upside is these next three years at an extreme bargain. They might look to actually re-sign him in 2027 for the long-term, especially if he performed really well in those three years, but they are willing to spend big money on free agents all the time, so it isn't something they'd rush into. Similarly, the other thing that might hinder Reynolds if he only performs at a very good but not elite level for three years is that a team can attach a qualifying offer to him, which hurts his market.

In any case, I don't think the Pirates are owed anything in the way of good will right now, since there's a pretty low risk path to just keeping him for 4-5 years at least, and if we push back away from all of that, then the rightful question is why the 2023 payroll is going to be basically the same as 2022.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Then teams are stupid. Nimmo isn't going to be playing CF when he's 35. How many 35 year old CFers are there even for elite teams? Not many.

Plus Nimmo has a huge injury history.

Players who can mash and play any positions at all will make bank. Especially now that there are effectively 5 "Corner" positions with the DH.

Plus there is also 3 years worth of inflation between now and when Reynolds hits FA. If he is as good offensively as he was last year, he'll make $100M+. If he is as good as he was in 2021, multiply by 1.5.

The difference is Nimmo is currently playing CF with passable defense, while Reynolds is not.

If Reynolds can return to form defensively and stay in CF, he will get that kind of deal. If he can’t and has to shift to LF, he definitely won’t. Players who are as good of hitters as Reynolds don’t get crazy massive paydays unless they play premium defensive positions.

The thing that makes Reynolds potentially incredibly valuable is his ability to play CF. If he can’t play CF, he’s just a plus version of Benintendi. A good hitting, good defensive LFer.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I hadn't seen this, though it's kind of that analysis which is more "all the boxes are checked" than a true rumor. Morosi kind of blurs that line a lot -- I am sure he has his sources, but he does more of the talking head game than the sourced up game.

Toronto worries me a little bit as a match simply because of the fit, as well as the non-Moreno pieces that might headline a deal. Martinez looks like a guy who took a step back in 2022 and is a power-first prospect at a position where we already have a franchise cornerstone. If he moves to 1B/corner OF, his value declines some even if he still really hits.

I'd be ok with him as a secondary piece in a trade, but in all likelihood, both him and Moreno or him and Tiedemann are too high of a price. Tiedemann's value is going to be hard to ballpark with the publicly available ranks and tools because he had an enormous breakout last year. It would be buying high, but based on everything I've seen, if the rest of the package was good enough, it might be the best solution.

That said, I do think there is opportunity with the Blue Jays in terms of avoiding what I see as the biggest problem in trading Reynolds, and why I am so adamant that he can just be kept all the way through if it comes to it: we cannot get a middling return of potential everyday players who flame out and leave us with no impact. While it's not the perfect organizational fit, Moreno is an MLB-ready, impact young talent. He is a better catching prospect than Endy and Davis both, and both of them are good enough that they can move off catcher and still be very valuable.

If we're going to trade Reynolds and other teams are going to drive their heels in the ground by refusing to deal that level of prospect, then it just might be the best fit to make the deal with the Blue Jays and use 2022 in part to figure out the future for the catching position and those three players. You could carve a path with Moreno as starter and both of them having backup duties that would be pretty unique. It's a pretty complimentary group, as Endy fits as a primary option at 2B/LF/1B and Davis can pick up some 1B. Both of them should be good enough to be a routine DH, and having the ability of all three of them to catch should keep everyone fresh and healthy. I think of all the possible outcomes, a package centered around Moreno is second only to some kind of surprise re-engagement and 7-8 year extension.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Moreno is an interesting name to discuss because of how deep the Jays are at catcher. Even if the Jays trade Jansen like is rumored, they still have Kirk who has suddenly become very solid defensively at catcher. Kirk was top-5 in framing on statcast (9 catcher framing runs) and top-10 DRS on fielding bible (9 DRS), while he was slightly above average at throwing out base stealers (26% caught stealing). Why do you need Moreno when you have a great offensive and good defensive catcher? I would be overjoyed if either Endy or Davis became that.

I would be happy with Moreno as the main piece for Reynolds. Moreno can play catcher now and there is nothing wrong with having multiple good catchers who have position flexibility to play other positions. Moreno would be the best prospect the Pirates could even possibly get for Reynolds. Fan comments don’t mean anything of course, but the vibe I got from Jays fans is that they’d sooner trade Moreno for Reynolds than Tiedemanm for Reynolds.

 

[Empoleon8771]

The Jays also just signed Kiermaier. It sounds like the Jays want to add another OFer in addition to Kiermaier, since it seems like he’s more of a defensive 4th OFer than a regular starter at this point. Curious to see if that influences any potential Reynolds to Toronto trade.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, hard to ballpark how Kierkmaier influences Toronto. They could still very much use the impact of Reynolds, but they might also see a path to just seeing how their season goes and then re-engaging at the deadline. Both them and the Yankees are somewhere in between really need another OF and could use an OF, so it's not a slam dunk that they'd feel a trade is necessary now.

And that matches my thinking with Moreno. They certainly don't need to deal him, but Kirk is clearly a fixture now and the existence of a pretty valuable Jensen makes it interesting for them. Not saying this will happen, but if they don't move a catcher, it's possible that they'll have trouble getting the ABs for Moreno and it could hurt his value a bit.

My best sense is that their possible preferred match is a young OF from Arizona, but I truly doubt Arizona would want to move Corbin Carroll, and from Toronto's POV, Alek Thomas might be a bit of a step down from Moreno. It just seems like it could be a scenario where everything kinda lines up. If we didn't have both Endy and Davis, or Endy didn't break out last year, I think we'd hear a lot more speculation about the match. If we made a trade centered around both, it would also give the cover that the FO might want to manipulate service time, as we'd be rotating one or both into a new primary role while Moreno and a veteran are the catchers in MLB.

The other thing I like about the possible Toronto matchup is that if they wanted to dump Gurriel in a deal, maybe as the final push to get them to part with such a premium prospect headliner, I think he would be a good buy low and fill an immediate void. A Pirates team without Reynolds and with Moreno and Gurriel is obviously a significant step back, but it's a good start to a trade. I don't really know if Toronto has a couple of additional pieces, but I think it's the best ballpark good trade return that would actually be able to happen. I really do not see NYY parting with Volpe unless they go get Correa.

 

[MrBrightside]

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Manaea's contract definitely should have been doable for us, though I also kinda figure that it's practically a one-year deal anyways. If he performs like the solid mid-level starter that you want, then he can just opt out and get a much better deal next year.

I think any hopes of a so-called multi-year SP that Cherington talked about have gone away, but for my money, the strongest risk/reward type of guy is Stripling. He's someone who I can see a bigger payroll team wanting either for the backend or in a similar role to what he's had so far for much of his career, as a swingman. He's a control-first pitcher without truly overpowering stuff, and he doesn't have a long history of absorbing a ton of innings. But he should be a dependable #3 type and give some stability. I do not expect us to go for him, but he'd be at the top of my list right now.

I expect more that we are going to try some cheap one year for a guy like Smyly or Duffy who can be a LHP starter. Granting too much fairness to the team, they have been successful with those guys, and another successful one would help slightly in terms of making the 2023 team a little better, but obviously if that's the route we take and it's not supplemented by a Benintendi signing or even someone like Drury, in terms of a multi-year everyday position player, then you have to ask what the point is.

 

[MrBrightside]

Rosenthal: What I’m hearing about how the MLB free-agent market is evolving

The sudden generosity teams are showing star free agents in their 30s will prompt some players to adjust their approach to the open market.

theathletic.com

• Yes, the Pirates are willing to entertain moving center fielder Bryan Reynolds, if only because clubs are almost always willing to listen to trade offers. Teams interested in Reynolds, however, say the price tag is similar to what it was in the past — exceedingly high.

One rival official, in what surely was an exaggeration, said the Pirates want a “Soto-type package” for Reynolds. Another said Reynolds is “super expensive.” A third described him as “unlikely to move.”

 

[MrBrightside]

Manaea's contract definitely should have been doable for us, though I also kinda figure that it's practically a one-year deal anyways. If he performs like the solid mid-level starter that you want, then he can just opt out and get a much better deal next year.

I think any hopes of a so-called multi-year SP that Cherington talked about have gone away, but for my money, the strongest risk/reward type of guy is Stripling. He's someone who I can see a bigger payroll team wanting either for the backend or in a similar role to what he's had so far for much of his career, as a swingman. He's a control-first pitcher without truly overpowering stuff, and he doesn't have a long history of absorbing a ton of innings. But he should be a dependable #3 type and give some stability. I do not expect us to go for him, but he'd be at the top of my list right now.

I expect more that we are going to try some cheap one year for a guy like Smyly or Duffy who can be a LHP starter. Granting too much fairness to the team, they have been successful with those guys, and another successful one would help slightly in terms of making the 2023 team a little better, but obviously if that's the route we take and it's not supplemented by a Benintendi signing or even someone like Drury, in terms of a multi-year everyday position player, then you have to ask what the point is.

I think anyone who really expected them to add real pieces this offseason was always deluding themselves. Well, in their minds, adding Santana was a BIG INVESTMENT, but in real baseball terms, they were never going to actually try to add anyone of significance. Mediocre SP are going for $12M-$15M - pretty sure the Pirates have never paid a single player that much in one season unless Cutch got there at the end of his deal - really don't recall the structure.

And you're correct about asking what the point is. They've added 4 guys this offseason and only the dime-a-dozen RP is under team control for 2024. If you figure out the point, I'd love to know.

 

[TimmyD]

Lol…. A Soto like package for a player who isn’t as good as Soto…. Makes sense to me

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Lol…. A Soto like package for a player who isn’t as good as Soto…. Makes sense to me

Cost controlled CF don’t grow on trees.

I think anyone who really expected them to add real pieces this offseason was always deluding themselves. Well, in their minds, adding Santana was a BIG INVESTMENT, but in real baseball terms, they were never going to actually try to add anyone of significance. Mediocre SP are going for $12M-$15M - pretty sure the Pirates have never paid a single player that much in one season unless Cutch got there at the end of his deal - really don't recall the structure.

And you're correct about asking what the point is. They've added 4 guys this offseason and only the dime-a-dozen RP is under team control for 2024. If you figure out the point, I'd love to know.

Liarino 3/39 is the highest contract they have given to a pitcher no way does it make sense for them to do the opt out deal with manea and his 4.00 era.

 

[TimmyD]

Cost controlled CF don’t grow on trees.

Lol… they may not, but he isn’t even in the same stratosphere as Juan Soto and he isn’t pulling anything close to what Soto got. All that is, is the Pirates prepping people for a mediocre return by saying “we had a huge asking price that no one would meet, but ultimately had no choice!”

 

[ChaosAgent]

We are not looking for a Soto package. That is industry hyperbole. We are looking for a top 20-25 prospect and one other top 100 guy or interesting young player. That was clear from the Meyer and Watson ask.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Lol… they may not, but he isn’t even in the same stratosphere as Juan Soto and he isn’t pulling anything close to what Soto got. All that is, is the Pirates prepping people for a mediocre return by saying “we had a huge asking price that no one would meet, but ultimately had no choice!”

They dont have to trade if you want him this is the price. He isn’t going to anywhere for 3 years they can easily get whatever offers they arz getting now at the deadline or next year.

Lol… they may not, but he isn’t even in the same stratosphere as Juan Soto and he isn’t pulling anything close to what Soto got. All that is, is the Pirates prepping people for a mediocre return by saying “we had a huge asking price that no one would meet, but ultimately had no choice!”

We are not looking for a Soto package. That is industry hyperbole. We are looking for a top 20-25 prospect and one other top 100 guy or interesting young player. That was clear from the Meyer and Watson ask.

They asked seattle for Rodriguez and Miami for Meyer they set the floor like you said

 

[ChaosAgent]

They dont have to trade if you want him this is the price. He isn’t going to anywhere for 3 years they can easily get whatever offers they arz getting now at the deadline or next year.



They asked seattle for Rodriguez and Miami for Meyer they set the floor like you said

Yes. But that was before he was Julio Rodriguez. He was a top 10 prospect.

The Pirates want one "untouchable"-level prospect. Soto got 2 and a third top 100 guy. That's even generously setting aside Mackenzie Gore for a Josh Bell rental.

 

[MrBrightside]

Liarino 3/39 is the highest contract they have given to a pitcher no way does it make sense for them to do the opt out deal with manea and his 4.00 era.

It's quite the circle of inactivity you create. They aren't close enough to pony up to sign good players so they don't sign good players and remain not close enough to pony up to sign good players so...

The Stockholm Syndrome is so very real with so many Pirates fans. I don't have an opinion one way or the other on Manaea as I never really believed he was an option for this organization, but the greater point is that there's zero effort into actual improvement - just scratch off a few lottery tickets and hope one hits - and so many just don't care. It's bizarre to me, but I think when I was 10 years old I was a huge fan of trading for George Hendrick and signing Steve Kemp - blissful ignorance.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

It's quite the circle of inactivity you create. They aren't close enough to pony up to sign good players so they don't sign good players and remain not close enough to pony up to sign good players so...

The Stockholm Syndrome is so very real with so many Pirates fans. I don't have an opinion one way or the other on Manaea as I never really believed he was an option for this organization, but the greater point is that there's zero effort into actual improvement - just scratch off a few lottery tickets and hope one hits - and so many just don't care. It's bizarre to me, but I think when I was 10 years old I was a huge fan of trading for George Hendrick and signing Steve Kemp - blissful ignorance.

I wanted manea and would have done 3/39 I would have done that for Quintana but I will never want them to do a opt out 1year rental it doesn’t make sense for the organization and i think San Francisco is dumb for doing it every year.
I think now they take on a few bad contracts and get some prospects since the league and Mlpa will force them to spend money this off season especially the 30 million they got from the Disney sale

 

[DJ Spinoza]

It's quite the circle of inactivity you create. They aren't close enough to pony up to sign good players so they don't sign good players and remain not close enough to pony up to sign good players so...

Yep, and when overtures are made about moving towards winning (essentially admitting that there was tanking the past few years as they waited for some prospects to emerge), there is no simpler barometer for commitment to winning other than that the payroll starts to creep back towards something like small market respectability.

At utter bare minimum, that's flirting around the 80M mark, and that's a mark that the equally very cheap Rays, who have essentially unparalleled success at the small market formula, have rather than other small market teams who are regularly north of 90M, which is I think reasonable.

Under Huntington, the Pirates only crested that amount for a few years. Going forward, I think we have every right to remain critical of the team if they aren't even going to start pushing it up next year. If the excuse is in part that they wanted to extend Reynolds and didn't (which is only even partially valid anyways, since at most he might have gotten a bump in 2023 from 6.75 to 10 or so, leaving the 2023 payroll still nearly as low as last year), then there's no other pivot other than to use some money on a couple more additions.

I think almost everyone sees where we are heading: a similar payroll as 2022, even if there are some upgrades on paper at a few positions. If we're also headed to a less than optimal return for Reynolds, that's a real double whammy.

 

[MrBrightside]

I wanted manea and would have done 3/39 I would have done that for Quintana but I will never want them to do a opt out 1year rental it doesn’t make sense for the organization and i think San Francisco is dumb for doing it every year.
I think now they take on a few bad contracts and get some prospects since the league and Mlpa will force them to spend money this off season especially the 30 million they got from the Disney sale

That's fair. I'm not in favor of signing guys who aren't going to be here in 2024 or beyond as I've stated.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I would be happy to get a singular piece that Soto got in exchange for Reynolds, let alone a "Soto like return". Give me 1 guy on par with Abrams or Hassell II and I'd be happy. If the Pirates would get Moreno for Reynolds straight up, I'd be happy with that.

I'm also really frustrated that the Pirates couldn't match or exceed what Manaea was offered by the Giants. They keep saying how they want to add a cost controlled starting pitcher, but they've missed out on at least 2 extremely workable UFA contracts between Quintana and Manaea. I would have easily done 3/39 for either of those guys.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

I would be happy to get a singular piece that Soto got in exchange for Reynolds, let alone a "Soto like return". Give me 1 guy on par with Abrams or Hassell II and I'd be happy. If the Pirates would get Moreno for Reynolds straight up, I'd be happy with that.

I'm also really frustrated that the Pirates couldn't match or exceed what Manaea was offered by the Giants. They keep saying how they want to add a cost controlled starting pitcher, but they've missed out on at least 2 extremely workable UFA contracts between Quintana and Manaea. I would have easily done 3/39 for either of those guys.

Manaea wouldn’t have took 3/39 he took the one year opt out deal so he can cash in next year

 

[ChaosAgent]

I would be happy to get a singular piece that Soto got in exchange for Reynolds, let alone a "Soto like return". Give me 1 guy on par with Abrams or Hassell II and I'd be happy. If the Pirates would get Moreno for Reynolds straight up, I'd be happy with that.

I'm also really frustrated that the Pirates couldn't match or exceed what Manaea was offered by the Giants. They keep saying how they want to add a cost controlled starting pitcher, but they've missed out on at least 2 extremely workable UFA contracts between Quintana and Manaea. I would have easily done 3/39 for either of those guys.

I think teams are just having tantrums because they are so accustomed to giving a list of "untouchables" that includes their top 2-3 guys (for us, Endy, Davis, Johnson) and then asking the selling team to paint within the lines of what else they have to offer. The reality is Reynolds is worth more than some team's #7, #12, #15 prospects and a Holderman-esque reliever. BC is asking for an "untouchable" + some other value. It isn't unreasonable.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Rosenthal framed Soto-like as hyperbole, and it is, because Reynolds isn't as valuable as Soto and does not have playoff experience either, on top of Soto's prime years still very likely being in front of him.

But setting that to the side, there is still a question of what Reynolds is worth in terms of the rough bars that basically every team uses to assess value, and it's quite a lot, whether he's dealt this offseason or at the deadline. He is worth a return that has a top-20 prospect in MLB as the headliner, but whether any MLB team is willing to give that up is a different question.

I think sometimes there are problems with assessing things purely by surplus value, since while that is literally correct, there are still other, "old school" considerations in play, including very basic things like the context of the trade.

If his value or a very close approximation of his value (such as Dominguez, who is not quite that level of prospect, being a headline prospect alongside a couple of young MLB talents like Cabrera and Peraza) isn't met, then the big question I have for the Pirates is if they are willing to take Reynolds' challenge to the organization (in a sense, obviously it's also just self-centered) to heart. And what I mean by that is quitting with the half-measures and excessive calculations and either stepping up to get the extension nailed down or stepping up to invest money into the team ASAP and even into next offseason to give a better chance to play out Reynolds' team control and make a run with him. Because even if they don't go totally crazy and sign a bunch of FAs, signing a few and then ultimately reaping compensation for Reynolds' signing elsewhere after a QO is extended is better than a deal with 3 or 4 decent guys who might become everyday players. It's impact young talent or bust for me.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think teams are just having tantrums because they are so accustomed to giving a list of "untouchables" that includes their top 2-3 guys (for us, Endy, Davis, Johnson) and then asking the selling team to paint within the lines of what else they have to offer. The reality is Reynolds is worth more than some team's #7, #12, #15 prospects and a Holderman-esque reliever. BC is asking for an "untouchable" + some other value. It isn't unreasonable.

I agree with what you're saying, but I also think there's a question of how much value Reynolds truly has. I have no doubts he's extremely valuable, but I don't know that he's "top-25 prospect, top-100 prospect and 2 more prospects" valuable.

Like I posted a few times, my goal return would be either a top-50 prospect, a top-100 prospect and some throw-ins or one top-20 prospect and some throw-ins. I don't know that the Pirates would take either of those, even though I think they're both very reasonable in value. Those kind of deals would be something like:

-Reynolds to Toronto for Moreno and lottery ticket prospects
-Reynolds to NY for Dominguez, Peraza and lottery ticket prospects
-Reynolds to LA for Miller, Pages and lottery ticket prospects

I would take those easily, I just don't know that the Pirates would.