OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

[bigdaddyk88]

The Yankees burned 70 million over 7 years on Aaron Hicks and have 4 players making over 20 million and another 3 making 15 million at least not even in the same restaurant

 

[ChaosAgent]

The Yankees burned 70 million over 7 years on Aaron Hicks and have 4 players making over 20 million and another 3 making 15 million at least not even in the same restaurant

But we can build a team by exploiting 0-7 year players, like the CBA allows us to do, and be equally as good if not better than they are with those 0-7 year players.

As far as the luxury 8+ year players, we should stop being disgracefully cheap. Even low-middle class kids get something for the holidays. Stop apologizing for this criminal Nutting.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

It's still early enough in the offseason and there are a lot of free agents left, but besides the most likely scenario of some more minor stuff, maybe a catcher, another pitcher or two, and perhaps a veteran position player, I think there are two other possible paths:

1) Money that would have gone to Reynolds is "smartly" reallocated into a team friendly extension for someone. While they've been surprisingly forthright about their intentions for Davis and Rodriguez, I bet one would sign an extension that's much friendlier than the Michael Harris type of contract. One outside the box idea if you wanted to get a RH bat into the mix would be to do it with Davis, have him be the 1b catcher to a veteran's 1a, and spend a lot of days as a DH. Then you dial in the exact role for Rodriguez, or the situation could be reversed.

2) Money that would have gone to Reynolds is actually reallocated into external additions at market value. The most extreme remaining example would of course probably be Benintendi, who is not as good and would take most of what was probably offered to Reynolds. Another extreme might be Bassitt, but there are plenty of lower cost options that fit this bill, at multiple years, down to probable lower-cost possibilities that would barely count.


For me, even though #1 would be a clear indication about a hopeful core player, it's #2 that is the bar. I am fine chasing .500 in 2023 while young players get another year of experience and hopefully a couple more prospects reach the place where Cruz is at right now (in terms of showing upside generally with MLB experience, not his specific upside). But I'm fine with that as an actual step to somewhere, and not just a step that will take work to then even just take a step mostly sideways from in 2024.

To put it succinctly, the bar for me is that the 2023 payroll should increase from the 55-60M that it's been to 75-80M. It should then be able to be stretched even more for 2024. There will be arbitration raises to think about for a small handful, but 10M or so is already slated to come back off the books next offseason, and that nearly doubles if we assume Reynolds is gone by the deadline or this time next winter.

That means 10-20M can still be spent right now and also pledged into the next year or more without really even moving the needle on what the team is spending. Cherington's comments are at least encouraging in the sense that he clearly thinks the internally produced talent needs external supplements, and he's started to put up with action, however modest. Now it's time to take another step, whether that's a shocking bigger name or a modest expenditure on a Wacha or a Drury.

 

[ChaosAgent]

It's still early enough in the offseason and there are a lot of free agents left, but besides the most likely scenario of some more minor stuff, maybe a catcher, another pitcher or two, and perhaps a veteran position player, I think there are two other possible paths:

1) Money that would have gone to Reynolds is "smartly" reallocated into a team friendly extension for someone. While they've been surprisingly forthright about their intentions for Davis and Rodriguez, I bet one would sign an extension that's much friendlier than the Michael Harris type of contract. One outside the box idea if you wanted to get a RH bat into the mix would be to do it with Davis, have him be the 1b catcher to a veteran's 1a, and spend a lot of days as a DH. Then you dial in the exact role for Rodriguez, or the situation could be reversed.

2) Money that would have gone to Reynolds is actually reallocated into external additions at market value. The most extreme remaining example would of course probably be Benintendi, who is not as good and would take most of what was probably offered to Reynolds. Another extreme might be Bassitt, but there are plenty of lower cost options that fit this bill, at multiple years, down to probable lower-cost possibilities that would barely count.


For me, even though #1 would be a clear indication about a hopeful core player, it's #2 that is the bar. I am fine chasing .500 in 2023 while young players get another year of experience and hopefully a couple more prospects reach the place where Cruz is at right now (in terms of showing upside generally with MLB experience, not his specific upside). But I'm fine with that as an actual step to somewhere, and not just a step that will take work to then even just take a step mostly sideways from in 2024.

To put it succinctly, the bar for me is that the 2023 payroll should increase from the 55-60M that it's been to 75-80M. It should then be able to be stretched even more for 2024. There will be arbitration raises to think about for a small handful, but 10M or so is already slated to come back off the books next offseason, and that nearly doubles if we assume Reynolds is gone by the deadline or this time next winter.

That means 10-20M can still be spent right now and also pledged into the next year or more without really even moving the needle on what the team is spending. Cherington's comments are at least encouraging in the sense that he clearly thinks the internally produced talent needs external supplements, and he's started to put up with action, however modest. Now it's time to take another step, whether that's a shocking bigger name or a modest expenditure on a Wacha or a Drury.

I agree with this generally, but Davis has not hit at the upper levels enough to show he's knocking on the door yet.

Endy - you already know my POV. Sign him and get him up here.

I think a lefty pitcher (Duffy, Smyly, Miley, Matt Moore?), a catcher and another position player are in the cards. BC is going to push hard for 70+ wins this year to save his job.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Barnhart for 2 years and $12 million
Manaea for 3 years and $36 million
Give Cruz something similar to what Hayes got (likely a bit less due to Cruz having fewer years of service)

I’d call the off-season a huge success if they did those 3 plus what they’ve done. I pretty much promise you they won’t, thought. Hell, 2 of those 3 may be unrealistic.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Barnhart for 2 years and $12 million
Manaea for 3 years and $36 million
Give Cruz something similar to what Hayes got (likely a bit less due to Cruz having fewer years of service)

I’d call the off-season a huge success if they did those 3 plus what they’ve done. I pretty much promise you they won’t, thought. Hell, 2 of those 3 may be unrealistic.

I mean, i wouldnt hold my breath on one happening.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Truthfully, I am probably still on the offensive train. I similarly wouldn't hold my breath on one happening, but:

Drury for 2 years, $20 million - with some escalators that might take either year up 3-5M
Manaea for 1 year, $9 million - again with some incentives
Look to extend Cruz after his Dominican season ends

I see the Cruz discussions as fairly separate, since that payroll impact will really be more for the long-term.

Drury gives them some more RH balance and pop, and can wear a lot of different hats, as he could push Castro and others in competition for 2B as well as be an option in the corner OF, DH, and at 1B. He also gives some depth and fallback at DH and 1B for 2024. I think he might get something similar to that anyways, but he's certainly a lower risk, attainable guy who should be signable based purely on money and opportunity. I think once the market clears, some better teams will be willing to offer him a one year deal, but not two guaranteed years.

I still see Manaea as a one year only option, but if he'd go for that type of contract, it's worth the gamble for us, because he could easily slot in as a 3/4 type with that kind of salary and have it be fine work with some real upside still. My guess on him is that he'll wait out the mid-tier market and find someone left in need of a backend starter with money to burn for one year. At the same time, it's worth asking how much he could conceivably raise his value in 2023, such that leaving term and money on the table could be a big risk. If 2023 is a bust for him, he's definitely looking at reclamation-only, sub-5M one year deals next year at best.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Another outside the box possibility that I'd maybe begrudgingly accept as enough of a positive horizon beyond 2023 for now is if we took a risk on Shintaro Fujinami. I haven't really seen much in the way of analysis about him, which makes sense because Senga is much more sought after and will definitely be a SP in MLB. Unlike Fujinami, Senga also doesn't require compensation to his NPB team.

The best consensus I can see is that he likely won't be targeted as a starter, because even though he has turned in good periods as a starter and has the stuff, he's had a lot of issues with control. For that reason, the assumption seems to be that he can be more of a reliever option, maybe with the stuff playing up.

That should temper both his market in general and also the kind of financial risk that's needed in the first place, so I wonder if it's a perfect storm of the kind of multi-role pitcher that Dewey Robinson seems to like working with along with a situation where some opportunity to start would be appealing to him. It's always hard to say with players coming from the NPB, since scouts tend to be a bit all over the place sometimes. I haven't seen anything that says bigger markets/the coasts will be a factor for Fujinami, but that's always possible for Japanese players.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

That blows the doors off what anyone expected.

 

[MrBrightside]

That blows the doors off what anyone expected.

Maybe longer in term but I'm not at all surprised by the AAV. It's why the public proclamations about offering Reynolds more than Hayes are so laughably inadequate. Reynolds would at least get a deal like this (for his free agent years, anyway).

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, I don't think the AAV is surprising. It seems like certain teams are more interested in keeping pace or on par with the level of expense that other teams are committing to. Not sure that's very clear, but there seem to be pretty clear patterns emerging in terms of sometimes teams going way in for short term impact, even to players who will be very old, whereas for other teams, AAV is more crucial. In Nimmo's case, it's way more term than I saw anyone guess, but if you assume that he ages similar to a Michael Brantley, then you are just guaranteeing him a bit more than the kinds of contracts Brantley is still pulling in year in and year out (when you account for inflation and an increasing threshold).

Then you have other teams like the Dodgers who are going to reset penalties to pay Ohtani whatever he wants next year. But in any case, here term matters less than AAV, and that probably would have been guessable given Nimmo's skill set.

I guess you could game it out and say that this is decent news for any possible Reynolds trade, since NYM isn't a great fit there. I don't think a trade is going to happen until the deadline because it would really undercut any chance at a 75-win/.500 type of season.

I also want to say briefly that despite my general skepticism about a Reynolds extension right now, in part for the Pirates but also generally leaguewide, when you see everything going on, it's pretty simple to just conclude that if the Pirates want any chance at keeping an impact player, they need to not shy away from the lengthier type of extension. Put differently, they could just commit a large amount to Reynolds for 8 years with basically the express intent to win within 5 years. If you pull that off, suddenly Reynolds making 20-25M per year into his early and early/mid-30s isn't really that big of a deal, and honestly either way, he's probably still tradeable even just to be rid of the final couple of years.

I think his discount premium years are still the most valuable thing about him, but that's an angle I hadn't thought all that much about before.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Maybe longer in term but I'm not at all surprised by the AAV. It's why the public proclamations about offering Reynolds more than Hayes are so laughably inadequate. Reynolds would at least get a deal like this (for his free agent years, anyway).

Yeah in 2026 he would get 5-100 as the floor if he still playing CF and his producing unlike 2021 or 2019. If he isn’t playing CF no way

 

[Empoleon8771]

The only surprising thing about that contract is the term tbh. You could look at deals like what Marte and Springer got to know that CFers like Nimmo are valued at about $20 million a year.

I've grown less and less interested in signing Reynolds the more I've thought about it. The defensive regression in CF last year was so extreme that it makes me very uncomfortable to commit CF money to him. The difference between a 130 OPS+ hitter with passable defense in CF and a 130 OPS+ hitter who has to play LF is massive in value. I would want to see Reynolds defense in CF improve this year before committing to him.

Waiting to extend him isn't going to change the value of his UFA years much, unless he sucks.

 

[MrBrightside]

Watching Empoleon talk himself into supporting the inevitable disappointing Reynolds trade in real time is quite the sight to behold. The idea that Reynolds needs to "prove" he can play CF long term before committing to him is absolutely silly.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I do think the defensive situation looms kinda large. The other analysis with Nimmo seems to be that there is huge immediate benefit to a team chasing the World Series for Nimmo to be able to play CF competently for at least a few more years with that kind of offensive output. Even if he then shifts to LF, he's only paid something like a market rate or a bit more (*gasp*) for his production, which is fine for a big budget team to absorb.

Defensive metrics and analysis is a mess, IMO. I think it's one of the big parts of the game where, although there are tools to help with analysis, the eye test looms large. There's more year to year change with guys, and in a lot of cases, there's always the fallback solution of rostering a plus plus defensive player at premium positions in order to make substitutions when necessary.

I would submit that it's still a decent likelihood that Reynolds will be able to play passable or solid defense in CF for some more seasons, including into his early 30s. It really just isn't a black and white question, since it also comes down to roster construction, but you can just look around the league at the lack of truly premium CFs and come to the conclusion that it's pretty likely for most teams, whether it's the Pirates or a prospective team that he's traded to in 4-5 years or so for the latter part of an extension that won't happen, he'll be a viable CF option.


All told, I think the Pirates remain in a bad long-term situation since it's clear that there's not going to be any kind of extension coming. It's not like these big-market calculations about AAV and future payroll really have any bearing on what kinds of decisions the Pirates make.

Assuming no surprising change of course on whatever kind of extension, my view is that they need to take a pretty hard-line stance in one of two directions. They either (1) aggressively shop behind the scenes and get a package that despite being a hit to the immediate team, does bring back the headline, potential impact talent that Reynolds' surplus value warrants on paper or (2) just as aggressively stick to their guns about modest improvement in 2023 with Reynolds as a big part of it, and then essentially double down through the rest of the team control: keep him and do not budge.

Maybe scenario #2 is the one that's a bit of a hot take, in that the assumption is that we can't just keep him and not trade him, but I don't fully see how that follows. Simply put, even if the situation starts to get tense in some ways (like for example, Bae taking starts from him in CF), Reynolds does not have a choice in terms of playing and it's not in his interest to perform poorly.

In scenario #2, I think there would rightfully be skepticism about whether the Pirates could get to a WC game let alone be a legitimate playoff thread by 2025, but I guess what I am saying is that if there's no trade to be had in scenario #1, then I just don't buy the fait accompli type logic that they still have to get something for him. In the end I think it would be better for us as an organization to just go for it, extend a qualifying offer to him after that 2025 season, and take the compensation which unless I am mistaken would essentially be another late first round pick.

To be clear, I think we're walking down the path of scenario #3, where Reynolds is ultimately traded but possibly not for the caliber of return that we are currently trying to extract. I think it could go multiple ways, as frankly there still aren't that many viable options out there and a lot of teams are looking. Maybe the Jays see it as their best leg-up upgrade on the Yankees and part with Moreno, even if that isn't immediately an obvious fit for us. The Yankees have Bader as a possibility for next year at least, but maybe they see Reynolds as significantly more helpful for them than the free agents who are available, or they "need" (want) to do a trade for an OF upgrade after spending big on Correa or Rodon, etc.

I'm droning on for way too long as always, but I really see this hardline split as outlining the path that has to be walked. There's maybe a scenario where multiple everyday players who aren't stars but immediately slot in and upgrade/strengthen key positions does provide a better option that my scenario #2, but I really doubt it. Reynolds is their best player and they claim they want to win, including in 2023 even with veterans who won't be around after 2023 and even to just that .500 or barely fringe WC type of performance. Moving him is a significant step backwards without at least the upside potential coming back.

 

[pistolpete11]

It's true whether he can stick in CF is a big factor for his value and it's a legitimate question. I'd be more accepting of that justification to trade him if it wasn't for this owner, though. With him around, it comes across as excuse making to avoid having to spend any money. If it was "we'll trade Reynolds for A, B, and C and then use that money to sign Player X in FA" I'd be able to get onboard. But it's not. That money will just sit in the owner's pockets.

 

[DanielPlainview]

It is completely illegitimate at this point to question Bryan Reynolds’ ability to play CF. There is absolutely no question that he can and will continue to play the position well for awhile

 

[Empoleon8771]

It is completely illegitimate at this point to question Bryan Reynolds’ ability to play CF. There is absolutely no question that he can and will continue to play the position well for awhile

He was one of the worst defensive outfielders in CF last year.

Yes, it is completely legitimate to question that. Reynolds is only playing CF here because the Pirates don’t have any other alternatives.

 

[Empoleon8771]

In terms of outs above average, Reynolds was dead last among CFers last year at -7 OAA. The best defensive CFer last year was Grisham at +17 OAA.

Want to use defensive runs saved instead? Reynolds was also dead last among CFers with -14 DRS. The best defensive CFer last year was Taylor at +19 DRS.

Want to use baseball reference dWAR instead? -1.2 dWAR on baseball reference. Again, dead last in the league. League best is Taylor at +2.4 dWAR.

Anyone acting like there are no questions about Reynolds in CF is a troll. If Reynolds repeats these defensive metrics next year, he’s not a viable CFer and it drastically hurts his value. It is completely valid to want to see him go back to his 2021 defensive metrics, which showed he is a viable CFer, instead of paying him like a viable CFer after a year where he wasn’t a viable CFer.

 

[ChaosAgent]

As long as Reynolds hits as well or better than he did this last year, he's gonna get paid. $125-$150M in free agency. But he has to get there first.

I think an extension would be something in the realm of 8/$130M. I may do it but also, his timeline doesn't match up with the BC vibez kids. Extend Endy and Cruz instead.

 

[Empoleon8771]

As long as Reynolds hits as well or better than he did this last year, he's gonna get paid. $125-$150M in free agency. But he has to get there first.

I think an extension would be something in the realm of 8/$130M. I may do it but also, his timeline doesn't match up with the BC vibez kids. Extend Endy and Cruz instead.

Nah, no way. If he’s a 130+ OPS hitter and is stuck in LF, he’s not getting more than $80 million in UFA.

I’d guess $16 million a year for what he’d get if he ends up regressing into a LFer. A bit more than Benintendi will get for a bit better of a player than Benintendi.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

If it was "we'll trade Reynolds for A, B, and C and then use that money to sign Player X in FA" I'd be able to get onboard. But it's not. That money will just sit in the owner's pockets.

Yes, I think this is also a crucial undertone in all of this. Even if we assume that the report about Reynolds being offered an extension that would make him the most highly paid Pirate ever is fudging the actual contract he was offered (i.e., some of the FA years weren't guaranteed, or years 4 and 5 were vaguely close to market value and there was a team friendly year 6 team option), that still means ~50-60 million was offered to Reynolds.

Given that this is the case, then if there's 0 chance that extension talks can be renewed (which seems obvious but who knows), there should be significant money to invest in the team. This is true even if we keep Reynolds and very generously subtract his 7 or so million from that "extension pool". Any way you slice it, there is still enough money to sign a mid-rotation SP or someone like Benintendi based on where projections are.

This is why for me, there are some benchmarks that I want to see with payroll as we march forward. Payroll should be creeping up in 2023 to 75-80 million, and then again to 90 million+ in 2024 and beyond. Even if we again very generously say that it doesn't need to go much beyond 100 million, that's nearly doubling the current payroll and internal arbitration raises are barely going to kick in until 2026.

I suspect the argument that they'll try to make when they don't pick up a FA is that their targets didn't work out and they'd rather keep money for extensions or free agents next year. And if they go that route, then they should still be pushing to 90M next year, when ostensibly the goal is to actually really chase for the wild card or better. It would be ridiculous to change the tune from continually saying "we still want to add" and "we're looking for a pitcher for multiple years" to a situation where the payroll basically doesn't increase, and then again with 15ish million coming off the books after this season easily, doesn't move up to some kind of halfway respectable number without major additions.

I'll wrap up by saying that even if we just exclude talking about an extension at all for the sake of argument, I think the Pirates either have their benchmark met of a package that has a 60 FV impact talent like Moreno or Volpe at the start of it, or they simply double and triple down and keep Reynolds and try to win by 2025. Even if that's early compared to a chunk of the internal talent, it's a better plan than trading him for a spread of possible everyday regulars. To take just one example, for a while the Taillon trade looked really great, and in some ways it was. But Yajure has washed out entirely for us and is out of the organization, Escotto really took a step back last year, and CSN is still an unknown after getting hurt. Contreras certainly has worked out, but the Pirates would be wasting their time if that or slightly better than that is the return they pull for Reynolds. At that point just keep him and add more to the team next year. I think they should already be taking the extension money they offered him and giving it to Benintendi.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Nah, no way. If he’s a 130+ OPS hitter and is stuck in LF, he’s not getting more than $80 million in UFA.

I’d guess $16 million a year for what he’d get if he ends up regressing into a LFer. A bit more than Benintendi will get for a bit better of a player than Benintendi.

Then teams are stupid. Nimmo isn't going to be playing CF when he's 35. How many 35 year old CFers are there even for elite teams? Not many.

Plus Nimmo has a huge injury history.

Players who can mash and play any positions at all will make bank. Especially now that there are effectively 5 "Corner" positions with the DH.

Plus there is also 3 years worth of inflation between now and when Reynolds hits FA. If he is as good offensively as he was last year, he'll make $100M+. If he is as good as he was in 2021, multiply by 1.5.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Then teams are stupid. Nimmo isn't going to be playing CF when he's 35. How many 35 year old CFers are there even for elite teams? Not many.

Plus Nimmo has a huge injury history.

Players who can mash and play any positions at all will make bank. Especially now that there are effectively 5 "Corner" positions with the DH.

Plus there is also 3 years worth of inflation between now and when Reynolds hits FA. If he is as good offensively as he was last year, he'll make $100M+. If he is as good as he was in 2021, multiply by 1.5.

Yes teams are stupid everyone knows your hopefully winning with in the 1st 3 years because it’s going to suck towards the back end. Just like judge 9 year deal or the 11 deals given to SS so far

 

[MrBrightside]

Then teams are stupid. Nimmo isn't going to be playing CF when he's 35. How many 35 year old CFers are there even for elite teams? Not many.

Plus Nimmo has a huge injury history.

Players who can mash and play any positions at all will make bank. Especially now that there are effectively 5 "Corner" positions with the DH.

Plus there is also 3 years worth of inflation between now and when Reynolds hits FA. If he is as good offensively as he was last year, he'll make $100M+. If he is as good as he was in 2021, multiply by 1.5.

Easily. This is crazy that it’s even a conversation. Barring injury or falling off a cliff Reynolds will be getting something that starts with a 2 once he’s FA eligible.