OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

[Josey Wales]

Reynolds is a p***y, Be part of the Change, Like the Guy he was traded for McCutchen

 

[ChaosAgent]

Reynolds is a p***y, Be part of the Change, Like the Guy he was traded for McCutchen

I get that but McCutchen's extension ended up costing him tens (if not hundreds) of millions of dollars.

 

[MrBrightside]

The idea that the Pirates were actually going to add a real starting pitcher was always cute. That ship has sailed.

 

[Rave7215]

I'm still struggling with the idea that it's been a "very positive" offseason when the additions are a couple of meh 1B/DH types and a 6th starter. It's such an example of living in a bubble - the fan boy segment will support the team no matter what, but the idea that the average fan that doesn't spend time posting winter ball videos of Jared Trolio is going to be excited over what they've done this offseason is absurd.

It was a very positive "Start" of the offseason. Making moves to shore up 1B in the interim and build depth. That all predicated on them then continuing that momentum.

It's pretty much all gone to hell now as the SP market is way above their price range. Shocker I know. And Reynolds wanting out. So back to meh shoulder shrugs again.

 

[MrBrightside]

Given that real rotation upgrades are gone. I'd really be fine with them starting the year giving Oviedo and Ortiz a real chance to make the rotation. Guessing they'll both be in AAA for "seasoning" or some such until June, but I'd rather see those guys than watch Velazquez or whatever other free agent they scrape off the bottom of the dumpster.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

There's still a possibility to make a multi-year investment in a pitcher if the will is there. I won't conclude this for sure about Quintana, but presumably he wants to be a part of a winner, and signing to be in a rotation with Scherzer and Verlander, alongside an offense that is likely poised to add this winter too, is a pretty good way to go about that.

I don't think that gets the Pirates off the hook whatsoever, but I'd guess it was reality. Quintana could maybe have waited to see how things unfolded, and the theory I've pushed all season is that the only way to get him back here would be to go a third guaranteed year that maybe some other teams would shy away from.

There are at least two reasons why people don't sign here, as people are pointing out, and they aren't always easily separable. One is money and the other is that most other teams provide a better opportunity to win, usually with at least equivalent money. Quintana seems more like the latter option, which is a root problem that can only be changed by winning more. Tampa is equally frugal with at least actual free agent pickups, but they still got Eflin to sign very quickly.

The path there for the Pirates is at minimum developing better and extending some of their players, and though I remain personally pretty skeptical of Reynolds and annoyed by this situation, I don't see how the whole Reynolds thing helps them in this broader sense. They could easily have gambled a bit on an enormous (for them) extension to make Reynolds a Pirate for as long as Hayes. I think there's a more abstract argument for why that isn't the absolute optimal decision (IMO, the 5 year, 80 million type deal is much smarter, but we don't know if even that was offered), but the fact remains that there are almost no payroll commitments and almost no arbitration headaches on the horizon for another 4+ years. We could have invested in Reynolds to continue trying to move in the right direction and be more attractive to free agents at least perhaps next offseason or the following one. Instead, we're in the same mess.


But, at the end of the day, there are still some potential free agents out there on which we can prove we are willing to pay market price. Stripling is likely a little step below Taillon in terms of what he can command, which should be affordable for them. He's got very good command numbers and was quietly very good against tough opponents last year. I think he's a good breakout candidate to be a nice solid #3 type pitcher who can be more of a #2 a lot of the times when he's rolling or facing the weaker NL Central offenses.

He'd be my pick to pivot towards, but there are even still a number of others still on the board with Quintana gone. Wacha might get 2/20 or 2/25 if the market is a little bit inflated, but though riskier, he still has ok upside to carry some innings as a viable mid-rotation guy. I don't think the Pirates should be let off the hook and don't think anyone else should think so either, but they should even be spending for the slightly lower tier options. We all know that if they didn't spend 10-12M on Wacha for a couple of years, they wouldn't suddenly reinvest the 20 total to sign someone for 50-60 in 2025.

 

[OnMyOwn]

Looking at the deals and money thrown around by these clubs for single players is insane. I don’t know how anyone could ever realistically see the pirates competing. It basically has to be a perfect storm of every young, cheap player exploding at the same time.

13-16 was fun, but how close are we to even being in that discussion? The pitching was way better back then, IMO.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think this is probably a better idea than Perez, honestly, though I wonder about all the pitchers banging on the table for Perez (at least seemingly). For the most part Barnhart has been a real workhorse and I think that really has to be a consideration. I believe Endy should start with Pittsburgh or at minimum be given a chance to make the team out of camp, but we're clearly against that due in part to ST manipulation.

If we're also committed to them hitting some benchmarks in terms of behind the scenes work with pitchers, or something along those lines, then a scenario where we sign Perez and he gets hurt is going to create some chaos, potentially with the entire 40-man. I think right now, we theoretically need to be planning for at least 2 catchers to be added, either 2 FAs or 1 FA and Delay or some other internal backup who isn't Endy.

I also don't think it's out of the question that we'd sign two veteran catchers. We were willing to do it at 1B/DH, and though it would more clearly block Endy, it might be what's in the cards. Even if they are just planning for a paint by numbers post-Super Two manipulation, Endy should easily be able to get ABs by that point of the season.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I would have given Quintana a 3rd year at $13 million to attempt to sway him away from the Mets and play for the Pirates, but it’s impossible to say if he would have done that.

Really disappointing if they don’t end up adding a legitimate mid rotation starter.

 

[Josey Wales]

I get that but McCutchen's extension ended up costing him tens (if not hundreds) of millions of dollars.

I don't think Cutch is one to spend money ridiculously stupid I think he invested well & Is still making decent money to say the least

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think this is probably a better idea than Perez, honestly, though I wonder about all the pitchers banging on the table for Perez (at least seemingly). For the most part Barnhart has been a real workhorse and I think that really has to be a consideration. I believe Endy should start with Pittsburgh or at minimum be given a chance to make the team out of camp, but we're clearly against that due in part to ST manipulation.

It's not Perez's fault, but I think they'd go Barnhart over Perez because Perez got hurt last year. The catching position went to absolute crap after Perez got hurt and I think that makes the Pirates hesitate to bring Perez back. It's like a "you burned us once" type of thing, even though it wasn't his fault.

I'm curious to see what they do with the backup catcher position. I wouldn't have waived Sanchez, I thought he looked decently intriguing as a backup catcher option for next year due to his age and defense.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Another thought: the bar is probably so low that if they worked out a team-friendly extension with Endy and then said "we expect him to battle for a job in the spring and make his debut at some point in the 2023 season", it would be seen as progress... it's kind of like how I felt right before the draft lotto last night. Faced with the possibility of dropping to 6-9, I would have just taken the ability to stay 3rd.

I think the bar remains, in Cherington's own words, a pitcher on a multi-year deal. Wacha or someone would perhaps be a little less than what some may have expected, but I'm willing to be liberal enough to count that. And if that doesn't happen, then Benintendi (which would probably be better than pretty much what's left, unless they do a real shocker and sign Bassitt or something). I am expecting none of this, to be clear.

I think even Manaea on a one-year deal would be something, even if it would just be 2023 and thus give no horizon beyond it.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Even with Manaea's bad season last year, I wouldn't have an issue with giving him a multi-year deal right now. Get him for 3x12, maybe with some options to make it a bit less risky for the Pirates, and I wouldn't have any concerns with that.

He struggled last year but was a consistently solid/good starter for most of his career before that. I'd easily take a gamble on him and give him extra years based on his age. He's only going to be 31 next year and he's a lefty, which is a big need for the team.

I'd feel more comfortable with giving that deal to Manaea with assuming that last year was a fluke over paying a high price for someone who had a great year last year but has historically struggled. Wacha seems like a risky, buy high move to me.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

I wouldn’t mind them bringing in both C. Perez at 5 million and Tucker at 2-12

 

[MrBrightside]

Not really sure what trade capital they have. After the trade deadline last year their farm system is pretty barren (and the only two Top 100 prospects they have are a SS and C, so...). But Mackey gonna Mackey.

 

[Gallatin]

The idea that the Pirates were actually going to add a real starting pitcher was always cute. That ship has sailed.

That seems like a good deal for Quintana. Very affordable.

Given that real rotation upgrades are gone. I'd really be fine with them starting the year giving Oviedo and Ortiz a real chance to make the rotation. Guessing they'll both be in AAA for "seasoning" or some such until June, but I'd rather see those guys than watch Velazquez or whatever other free agent they scrape off the bottom of the dumpster.

A top candidate for our cheap classless friends from WV.

This is a player that can really help them IMO. still cool with Perez for 2-3mill, but what are the chances he stays healthy? I'll take em' both.

 

[Gallatin]

I wouldn’t mind them bringing in both C. Perez at 5 million and Tucker at 2-12

Why would anyone pay 5mil a year for a broke down catcher in his mid-30's that's always hurt? Probably get him for half that.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Why would anyone pay 5mil a year for a broke down catcher in his mid-30's that's always hurt? Probably get him for half that.

I just looked up what we paid him last year figured they pay him the same. That way you can hopefully keep both guys fresh and help them avoid injury

 

[DJ Spinoza]

SD definitely likes to make a splash but like MrB said, doesn't have the trade capital. Mackey followed that up by bringing up both Merrill and Lesko, but even if both were offered plus some ML ready pieces, just wait until the deadline at that point.

I think anything with Reynolds has to wait until Nimmo shakes out now. My assumption is that the Yankees still want a second OF, and a lot might depend on whether they sign Nimmo or sign Rodon or sign one of the remaining short stops. Best case scenario for a trade with them is probably the latter, but I doubt Volpe is on the table in any scenario.

I think we should still be aggressive in seeing what the best actual offers are for Reynolds, but there's also a big part of me that assumes he'll be kept until at least the deadline now. There's been all this talk about trying to improve, and trading your best player is a way to easily undo the small additions that have been made. This isn't how anyone should think, but there's probably a path to the mediocre 75-win range or so in which Reynolds is dealt at the deadline.


I think Manaea would make for an interesting gamble on a multi-year deal. He's not too far removed from being a sought after trade acquisition and I would assume he plays up some in PNC Park. I've been under the assumption that he's a one year bounce back type, since if I am not mistaken his velo was also down for some periods, but I wonder if he might be possible for some kind of more complex contract, like a deal with some escalators that also has a team option or something along those lines.

I do not expect any multi-year commitments to be made, but BC does continue to talk as if that's still the plan. IMO the best case scenario would be Benintendi, but that ship will probably sail once the top of the market clears and multiple contenders are still sitting there with money to spend and OF spots to fill. At some general level, my attitude is that if the Reynolds' thing has reached an absolute and total impasse, then it should not be unreasonable to think that the Pirates could pull a complete stunner (for them) and go for Benintendi as 4/60 or something like that. There's really not much point in even typing sentences like this, but if he was making 15M/year, then already next year, his salary is covered with Santana, Choi, and Reynolds subtracted. If there really is the "flexibility" to go up from 55-60M to 80M, that kind of 15M salary to solidify another weak spot for 4 seasons is hardly anything.

 

[Empoleon8771]

The big issue I have with getting Merrill and Lesko is that both are young prospects and the Pirates shouldn't be targetting 19 year old prospects with ETAs not until 2026 or 2027. Merrill is a legit prospect, he's a 55 FV and ranked 22nd in the MLB. He'd be a legit centerpiece for Reynolds, I just don't want the main piece for Reynolds to be a 20 year old SS. They need something sooner than Merrill's ETA and they especially don't need another middle infielder.

The Padres are desperate, but I don't think they have the assets that I'd want to trade Reynolds there. The absolute best I could see is Campusano, Merrill and some lesser prospects, but even that doesn't get me excited.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

The Rule 5 Draft is about to start. I assume we'll try and snatch someone up, but Rule 5 picks so rarely latch on that it's not worth worrying about. The big question is whether anyone takes Nunez, which you have to admit would be pretty funny on the day Quintana did not re-sign here. For the record, I am fully fine with not protecting him, as I don't think he could stick on an MLB roster right now, and I'll be mildly surprised if he's taken. He's someone who did rake, but he's basically a DH who hasn't played above AA, so it's the "right move" to not protect him.

The main guy who I think we could lose and have it turn into something is Tahnaj Thomas. There's enough there that a team with a good pitching program could turn him into a useful MLB reliever. I think he's the likeliest to be taken.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Pirates took Jose Fernandez, LHP from the Dodgers. Looks like the kind of typical LHP profile.

The Reds took Blake Sabol, which is pretty funny given that we currently only have Endy on the 40-man as far as catchers go.

 

[Empoleon8771]

From Fangraphs

"Hernandez sat 94-96 mph during spring viewings and his fastball has backspin and tough-to-hit angle that make it a weapon at the top of the strike zone. His mid-80s changeup has enough bottom-out action to miss the occasional bat, while his breaking ball has added significant power, averaging 80 mph in 2021 but bending in in the 83-86 mph range this spring. Though projecting solely in relief, Hernandez is a lefty in the mid-90s with potential for three average or better pitches."

Not anything special, seems like more of a bullpen arm. Pirates passed in the 2nd round so it looks like they'll be adding catchers via free agency, not the rule 5 draft.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Looking at the deals and money thrown around by these clubs for single players is insane. I don’t know how anyone could ever realistically see the pirates competing. It basically has to be a perfect storm of every young, cheap player exploding at the same time.

13-16 was fun, but how close are we to even being in that discussion? The pitching was way better back then, IMO.

I want to push back on this and all the other "it's so expensive" posts.

With the new CBA, in which the players failed to fundamentally change the "exploit for 7 years then you hit paydirt" baseball is very easy to budget.
Your team is going to be 30-40% rookie scale deals. Those average $600-$800K. That is eating rice/beans at home.
20-30% of your team is going to be arbitration guys. They will be on average $3-4M. That is fast food to fast casual.

Put that together and 15-18 guys on your payroll average to...$2M apiece. $30-$40M
Those remaining 8-10 meals you need in your week...bear in mind, not every one of these guys is a luxury. Some are a middle reliever. A backup catcher. Etc.
Some teams get to be Instagram influencers at Michelin star restaurants. Some teams go to Ruth's Chris Steak House or some other generic nice restaurant. Fogo de Chao.
Our team cries poor to not even do the latter.

I guess this long-winded, strained metaphor is a way of saying - the difference between us and the Yankees is 2-4 $25M+ players. Which sounds like a crazy difference except that it's 2-4 out of a roster of 25. The Yankees are at the 3 Michelin star restaurant but we pocket the money instead of going to a $50 steakhouse. I still remember something @DJ Spinoza wrote last year - a 2 year/$20 contract for a starting pitcher is a "lark" in the modern MLB. It shouldn't even be hard or controversial or monumental in any way. JFDI.

 

[sovietsanta87]

Looking at the deals and money thrown around by these clubs for single players is insane. I don’t know how anyone could ever realistically see the pirates competing. It basically has to be a perfect storm of every young, cheap player exploding at the same time.

13-16 was fun, but how close are we to even being in that discussion? The pitching was way better back then, IMO.

Yet most teams do it.