OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

[DJ Spinoza]

Doubt it really has much to do with the lower tier guys, but maybe more urgency for pitching now that Rodon is off the market. I also wonder a bit if it will see Yankees more fully pivot to the possibility of trading for Reynolds. It seems like they are in the mood for big statement additions, and adding Reynolds would certainly put a bow on their offseason. My guess is more that they might pivot to Benintendi or Conforto instead. I think they've clearly pivoted to a more aggressive FA position, but I am not sure they'll greenlight trading the farm for Reynolds.


On another note, it hit me today that a target some wanted, Mancini, is still without a contract and likely doesn't have a huge market. The Pirates did obviously address 1B, but Mancini can play some corner OF and also gives another competent RH bat, which would be a big boost to the offense. Getting him on a bargain 2-3 year deal would be a good use of supplementary money and a fairly safe signing.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Jim Bowden was on MLBN Radio and said that the Yankees primary target for LF is Benintendi, but Benintendi wants something around a 5 year, $85 million contract and the Yankees don't want to give him that much. If not Benintendi, Reynolds is their next target.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I wonder if Benintendi might end up becoming squeezed by the way that decisions seem to be trending by those with money. There's an obvious consensus that the way around luxury tax stress and general dollars spent is to lengthen contracts considerably, as some of these stars who signed got contracts which will take them into age-40 seasons. On the other hand, there's been willingness to spend more in the short term and open up a contract for a player to opt out.

Benintendi kinda seems like he'll be caught in the middle here, since in theory he could do some kind of opt-out contract and get a bigger one next offseason or in two years or something, but he kinda is what he is at this point, even if the power comes back to some extent. And what he is really is a nice kind of supplemental player on your roster, someone who can give you consistently good ABs and solid defense. It's not the kind of player that someone puts a one year bet on or wants to be committed to over the long haul, even if there's a pretty good chance he returns ok value on a 5/85M contract in terms of being a 2 WAR type player as a baseline.

5/85 is obviously too rich for the Pirates blood, as is the more modest 4/64 that MLBTR projected for him. I hate to just repeat ad nauseum, but if we're not going to spend on a Reynolds extension and intend to improve the 2023 team and beyond, Benintendi is a pretty safe bet to be an above average contributor at a position where we are pretty thin. And now ironically, getting him off the market might be the best "leverage" to get the Yankees to meet a higher price for Reynolds.

Even setting aside Volpe, adding Benintendi and then getting something like Peraza and/or Cabrera on top of Dominguez and a bit of pitching might be the least bad possible outcome. I don't expect anything other than hanging onto Reynolds and revisiting at the deadline, but I guess at least if Benintendi is off the market (elsewhere), the Yankees will feel some pressure to win the bidding for Reynolds.

 

[Rave7215]

There goes Benintendi. 5/$75

 

[Empoleon8771]

There goes Benintendi. 5/$75

To the White Sox, which is about as good of a scenario as possible to get the Yankees to pony up for Reynolds.

Judge wanted to see the Yankees go all-in when he signed, which was said when the Yankees signed Rodon. Do you really think just signing Conforto to a reclamation project deal will really be enough? I doubt it.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Gallo got 11 million and benintendi got 15 million aav 5-55. Wonder what comforto gets he would look good in Lf

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

To the White Sox, which is about as good of a scenario as possible to get the Yankees to pony up for Reynolds.

Judge wanted to see the Yankees go all-in when he signed, which was said when the Yankees signed Rodon. Do you really think just signing Conforto to a reclamation project deal will really be enough? I doubt it.

Gallo in Minny opens up Kepler to NYY. I saw somewhere he was a backup plan if Benintendi went elsewhere.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Gallo in Minny opens up Kepler to NYY. I saw somewhere he was a backup plan if Benintendi went elsewhere.

Yeah but Kepler isn't exactly anything special. That's a "oh shit, we missed out on all of our actual targets" FA target.

He's about a league average hitter with good defense in RF, he's certainly not bad but you'd think the Yankees would be aiming higher as a win-now team.

 

[Empoleon8771]

This isn't really Pirates related, but I was looking at Kepler's stats and I'm not sure how his WAR totals are so nice for his level of production. Just to compare Gamel and Kepler:

Gamel 2022: 115 games, .232/.324/.369 slash line, 96 OPS+, 0.8 oWAR
Kepler 2022: 115 games, .227/.318/.348 slash line, 93 OPS+, 1.3 oWAR

I'm not sure I understand how those oWAR totals are so different for seemingly 2 very similar offensive players. Kepler averages 3.3 WAR per 162 games with a career OPS+ of 101. While he's good defensively, it's his offense that's mostly driving that WAR. Not really trying to stir up a debate or anything, I'm just confused for why his WAR was seemingly so high.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Benintendi is a kind of interesting case because he doesn't really have any stand out talent but as long as his game stays like it is, he will be a positive value contributor and "worth" that contract. I think so much of the public analysis is tied up in perceived value from the perspective of a team a big return or continued star power, but purely in terms of how much wins are "worth" on the open market and how consistent Benintendi is plus his age, he's a good bet to perform relative to his contract.

I see why some teams shied away from that kind of term for him, but in a slightly healthier league, more mid-tier teams should be paying free agents like that. Instead, a team like the Yankees will want to go bigger for Reynolds or use less assets and have more flexibility with either Conforto or a trade for Kepler.


I do agree that there might be a mandate on the Yankees for more, since although they've stepped it up in free agency this winter, they still haven't done a lot to address the way their offense can flatline sometimes. For that reason I was kind of thinking that they would end up with Benintendi in the end, since although people are reacting to this deal as though it's some travesty because Benintendi hits singles and plays good defense... that's kind of the thing the Yankees offense needs.

I've come off having a strong opinion about what to do over Reynolds because the whole situation is too predictable and frustrating. It is either the case that Cherington has a budget and didn't utilize his flexibility very well, or more likely, Nutting is again not committed to putting his money where the organization's mouth is. Rolling out the same payroll in 2023 is unexcusable, and it's currently even less than it was last year. Meanwhile, there are upgrades which would have cost something like 12M or 15M per season, and not for multiple seasons either, which for whatever reason seems like it's what Cherington wants.

Considering we will probably spin our wheels and then be in the same situation again next winter, only perhaps with some better young MLB talent to rest on if 2023 goes well in that department, then I don't see how the conclusion isn't that we should move Reynolds ASAP in order to get the maximum value for him.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

This isn't really Pirates related, but I was looking at Kepler's stats and I'm not sure how his WAR totals are so nice for his level of production. Just to compare Gamel and Kepler:

Gamel 2022: 115 games, .232/.324/.369 slash line, 96 OPS+, 0.8 oWAR
Kepler 2022: 115 games, .227/.318/.348 slash line, 93 OPS+, 1.3 oWAR

I'm not sure I understand how those oWAR totals are so different for seemingly 2 very similar offensive players. Kepler averages 3.3 WAR per 162 games with a career OPS+ of 101. While he's good defensively, it's his offense that's mostly driving that WAR. Not really trying to stir up a debate or anything, I'm just confused for why his WAR was seemingly so high.

Not sure what site you using but Gamel has a higher oWAR on fangraphs but Kepler killed him in dWAR

 

[Empoleon8771]

Not sure what site you using but Gamel has a higher oWAR on fangraphs but Kepler killed him in dWAR

I was using Baseball reference, which also includes position adjustment for oWAR. Which I feel like makes it kinda useless, but whatever

But yeah, Kepler is essentially a league average hitter with good defense and a cannon arm in RF. He's not bad, but I'd expect the Yankees wanting to aim higher than that.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

One roadblock for the Yankees and Kepler might be that Minnesota is still in win-now mode, and so while they do have some depth to deal from and could stand to get an ok return on someone who might go to free agency anyways, there's also a question of how much it's worth it for them in their current circumstances. They could easily just see it as something to punt on and decide at the deadline relative to their injury situation and where they stand in WC/division races.

My sense is that the Yankees are still hunting for a big move, but Volpe will be a big sticking point in a deal. I'm only repeating myself with respect to their possible returns, but I am not quite sold on Dominguez as a headliner in the same was as Volpe or Moreno (and I don't think it matters that Volpe is a shortstop, since he or Cruz has the athleticism to move to another position easily). A lot hinges on Dominguez's 2023 -- if his bat really accelerates, then he could jump towards that top-20 echelon, but he isn't there yet and there's risk in his game.

I could see see a quasi- quantity/quality package still working out. I don't know if it's valid or not, but I saw something saying Volpe, Peraza +, and so if that package shifted to Peraza, Cabrera, and then Dominguez and another prospect, then that gives you two pretty good immediate impact guys along with some other prospects. I don't see the Yankees as the ideal option in every sense, but there are ways it could make sense. It also gets messy if you add in potential salary considerations. For example, if they wanted to clear Torres' salary, that could make sense as a stopgap type move for us, but obviously there's no reason to have him in a deal for Reynolds over a younger player or prospect.

 

[cookthebooks]

sorry to gripe but this feels like the first offseason where it really truly feels pointless

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I don't see any other conclusion when you contrast the big talk/ change in tone from BC vs. the reality of what's happening. It's pathetic that the only big action is whether and to what extent the Yankees might pony up to trade for our best player.

The offseason is still early enough and there are some potential lower cost / cheap it out possibilities out there, but I don't think it's too rash to conclude that we are however many years into the BC tenure and there's no noticeable plan besides "wait for prospects to become good." What's the best case scenario at this point? Wacha for 1-2 years and AJ Pollock or something? All the while trade rumors will loom over Reynolds until he's gone.

Basically the only thing that can salvage things at this point is a surprise bomb that Nutting stepped up and gave Reynolds 7 years at what he wants. And even if that did somehow happen, the investment in improving the team in 2023 is sorely lacking. I'm practically ready to prepare myself for not taking the perfect fit of Dylan Crews in order to execute some BS draft strategy.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Slightly surprised but maybe Perez is not going to be healthy. I think Hedges is the way to go if you are just looking for maximum defense. There are maybe some small offensive upsides with guys like Alfaro and to a lesser extent Barnhart, but with Hedges you know you get supreme defense and terrible offense. I don't mind that trade given that you probably don't get good offense from any of the FAs.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Hedges is a solid addition with knowing what he is. He's an extreme example, but most pure defensive catchers are horrible offensively anyway. Guys like Perez and Barnhart have around a 75 OPS+ and have seasons on par with Hedges' 50ish OPS+ fairly often.

Not exactly a glowing endorsement of Hedges, but he's terrific defensively, is a great locker room guy and pitchers love pitching to him. The best thing he can do is help Endy become a strong defensive catcher and a locker room leader and then leave when Endy is ready to take over.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, given the total lack of commitment to a mid-tier FA, I can see why people see 5M and think that it would be better put to use elsewhere. As an isolated move, catchers make what they make when they are established and proven good defenders, so that's more of a roster construction and overall commitment problem than a problem with this specific move.

 

[ChaosAgent]

This is lame but I don't dislike it. Joe has hit lefties well since coming up and we need more hitters with basic competence against lefties. Not counting Reynolds, now we have Santana, Castro, Hayes and Joe.

Apparently he spent most of last season in the outfield so that's good. We probably sign Wade Miley, see if anyone ponies up for Reynolds and call it an offseason.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Tbh, I'm surprised they got Joe for that cheap. He's not a bad player and he still has 2 years of pre-arb left. He was at a 97 OPS+ with the Rockies in the last 2 years while playing mostly decent defense, that's not anything amazing but it is a decent player.

This just makes it less likely that you'll see some of the dogshit players the Pirates threw out last year IMO.

The best way to sum it up: they basically replaced Gamel with Joe, but Joe is actually fine defensively so it's a net improvement for the team.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Tbh, I'm surprised they got Joe for that cheap. He's not a bad player and he still has 2 years of pre-arb left. He was at a 97 OPS+ with the Rockies in the last 2 years while playing mostly decent defense, that's not anything amazing but it is a decent player.

This just makes it less likely that you'll see some of the dogshit players the Pirates threw out last year IMO.

Clearly there has been an emphasis with both Choi and Joe of trading for cost-controlled decent players who were out of favor with their previous clubs, using the surplus of 40-45 FV prospects to do so. I wish we weren't so perpetually cheap about it, but at the same time it's doubtful that either Hartman or Garcia amount to much.

As underwhelming as this whole thing is, if they don't trade Reynolds I could see them getting to 70 wins. Assuming they get Miley or the equivalent for the rotation.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Clearly there has been an emphasis with both Choi and Joe of trading for cost-controlled decent players who were out of favor with their previous clubs, using the surplus of 40-45 FV prospects to do so. I wish we weren't so perpetually cheap about it, but at the same time it's doubtful that either Hartman or Garcia amount to much.

As underwhelming as this whole thing is, if they don't trade Reynolds I could see them getting to 70 wins. Assuming they get Miley or the equivalent for the rotation.

Yeah Joe basically is just another Gamel caliber bat, but Joe isn't an absolute train wreck defensively like Gamel is. Gamel's bad defense ended up hurting the team more than his league average offense. Joe is fine defensively at both 1st and OF.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I agree with the reaction -- for me, in isolation it's a pretty solid move. Average MLB player who immediately bolsters the depth in a needed role vs. extreme long shot prospect... give me the former every time. Doesn't move the needle and I think you could say "why not chase more upside and sign Drury for two years?", but on its own, a fine move.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Doesn't move the needle and I think you could say "why not chase more upside and sign Drury for two years?", but on its own, a fine move.

Clearly they don't have the budget for a Drury. Sadly.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, I don't think there will be much more in the way of additions to payroll. Maybe we'll see another cheap pitcher, and maybe there will be another kind of minor trade like this one, but that seems like the most that would happen absent things changing with the Reynolds situation.

I think what I'm about to spin out is too charitable to BC / Nutting than I really mean it, but besides looking at the situation and seeing the only obvious plan as "wait for prospects to become good", it does seem like there is a bit of a logic to everything that they've done. He's shoring up major black holes and trying to maximize the MLB product in 2023 without really being entangled in payroll or depth chart/flexibility concerns beyond that.

If you squint way too hard, you could conclude that at least in theory, a team with Cruz and a couple more young players that has just come off a 75ish win season is a more appealing sell in free agency than the trainwreck that the team was in 2022. The reason not to take this route is pretty obvious, namely that it's a Lucy/Charlie Brown situation where the can is kicked yet again, not to mention the assumption that 2023 will automatically work out great. It certainly could -- if all or most of Cruz stepping forward, Hayes' offense inching forward, Endy progressing, Contreras staying healthy for 160 IP, Ortiz being for real, etc. happens, then things could work out well if the supplemental players all perform.

At the end of the day, I still think money talks for mid-tier FAs, and that it isn't really much of an excuse to say that most players are only going to come here if they don't have other options. We'll see how anything else unfolds, but as far as the MLB team and fixing the worst problems, I still don't think enough has been done to cover innings. The bullpen has slightly ticked up, but a handshake agreement with Velasquez is really a head scratcher and a veteran presence would really go a long way.

There's really nothing left that will make me think any more than the bare minimum was done, but at least getting somebody like Cueto or Kluber to shoulder innings would have a positive ripple effect on what you are asking out of everyone else. Kluber got 1/8M last year and really delivered, so I can see that number being at least the same and probably going up, either of which means we're out if you base things on any kind of straightforward assessment of how we've behaved. But adding a veteran who will definitely be penciled in for 160+ innings would go a long way to cementing the goal of "at least be decent" which seems to be the target.