OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

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I think what I'm about to spin out is too charitable to BC / Nutting than I really mean it, but besides looking at the situation and seeing the only obvious plan as "wait for prospects to become good", it does seem like there is a bit of a logic to everything that they've done. He's shoring up major black holes and trying to maximize the MLB product in 2023 without really being entangled in payroll or depth chart/flexibility concerns beyond that.

If you squint way too hard, you could conclude that at least in theory, a team with Cruz and a couple more young players that has just come off a 75ish win season is a more appealing sell in free agency than the trainwreck that the team was in 2022. The reason not to take this route is pretty obvious, namely that it's a Lucy/Charlie Brown situation where the can is kicked yet again, not to mention the assumption that 2023 will automatically work out great. It certainly could -- if all or most of Cruz stepping forward, Hayes' offense inching forward, Endy progressing, Contreras staying healthy for 160 IP, Ortiz being for real, etc. happens, then things could work out well if the supplemental players all perform.
In addition to Reynolds' existence or lack thereof in the team, the highest variance players on the team IMO are:

1) Cruz, duh
2) Hayes. Can he be offensively remade, or will trying to tinker with his approach and mechanics totally get rid of what he does well - plate discipline and hitting hard liners to right? I'm not ruling out that as flawed and maddening as he currently is with the bat, teaching him not to lunge and to get ahead of the ball may actually ruin him. It is risky.
3) Keller
4) Bae. I could see him being a sneaky good 3-4 WAR CF and leadoff guy. I could also see a perpetual inability to make hard contact and him hitting an empty .230.
5) Endy's arrival. He could be awesome. He may also not even make it up here!
6) Ortiz as you mentioned. The FB/Slider combo is awesome but he has still gotten lit up most of his career. We don't know if he's just a thrower or a pitcher, to use a cliche.
 
Like I said a few days ago, I think the Pirates will ultimately have to show some sort of promise before they can get any UFAs to sign here. The Pirates could just overpay to get these guys in theory, but you know this ownership won't approve of that. The only notable money guys they'll pull off are guys who want to be there or reclamation projects. Until they're a legitimate contender or at least a team showing promise, I don't think that will really change.

I think Cherington did ultimately want to add a starting pitcher on a multi-year deal this off-season, but the sales pitch of "we were a 100 loss team and we won't overpay you to have you come here" isn't going to have many suitors.
 
Like I said a few days ago, I think the Pirates will ultimately have to show some sort of promise before they can get any UFAs to sign here. The Pirates could just overpay to get these guys in theory, but you know this ownership won't approve of that. The only notable money guys they'll pull off are guys who want to be there or reclamation projects. Until they're a legitimate contender or at least a team showing promise, I don't think that will really change.

I continue to think an inability to "recruit" being a driver is overblown. The only guy they were even connected to was Gibson.

If you're a mid-tier FA you're looking for an opportunity to play and you're looking for the most money. We just aren't the team that's willing to offer it.

For pitchers I could also see "organizational philosophy" coming into it. But we just had Anderson and then Quintana in successive seasons come here and then bounce back in their careers. I certainly wouldn't steer people away from here. If you're good you probably get traded to a contender anyway, if that's what matters to you.
 
I'm of two minds about it. I do think there's something to the team not being any kind of destination for someone who has several options, but for most players I still think money talks in the end. For mid-tier players, there's a pretty thin line between cashing in and having a poor season that requires you to take a very cheap deal or worse, so it can't be too wise to leave guaranteed money on the table.

The bit about not pursuing multi-year free agents in the end is actually coming from reporting. I haven't seen Mackey say much about it, but Alex Stumpf certainly presented it that was when interviewed by the NS9 podcast guys the other day. Something to the effect of the Pirates backing off whenever negotiations got into a second year. Whether it would be the best move or not, I think you can look at someone like Wacha being available as a further indication of this. He's someone you could easily bet on over a two-year deal at a modest price of 10-11AAV and likely return value.

I do think some of it is also about how the overall market is reacting, which is also where I see the Pirates getting priced out. For example, Syndergaard only looks so so as a starter nowadays, but he got 8M from the Dodgers and I am sure he will be deployed very effectively as a 4-5IP starter type, and maybe they'll find a way for him to get beyond that. That's probably "too expensive" for what the Pirates are looking to do, but the fact of the matter is that for MLB teams, one year contracts are never bad ones and at least given where the Pirates payroll looks to be, that should still hold true for them.

The offseason has started to go in a predictable direction for us, but at least in terms of the goal to be decent enough to flirt with .500 for a while and finish with 70-75 wins instead of truly bottoming out, I think a veteran SP still goes a long way. We should be able to pay top dollar for one year to get those dependable innings from one of the remaining guys like Wacha, Cueto, or Kluber.

For my money, there are two primary and related criticisms of the front office/ownership right now:
1) The payroll remains arbitrarily low and the owner isn't putting his money where his mouth is regarding an increased payroll when the time is right. All MLB teams just got 30M checks for doing nothing at all, but even with some additions, the Pirates payroll is on track to creep up maybe 5-10M next year and all we really have to show for this offseason is an embarrassing public request for a trade from our best player. A move like adding Connor Joe might turn out to be a savvy, no risk way to boost the current roster a little bit, but both that and starting pitcher are areas where more money could have been spent on short term solutions.
2) If we set aside the arbitrarily low payroll for a minute, there are also questions about how Cherington allocated what little budget that he had this offseason. The early moves read like scrambling to fix an area that's been a disaster offensively, as we claimed Diaz, traded for Choi, and then signed Santana. Maybe Santana was the main target going into the offseason and we felt (rightly) like the other opportunities made too much sense to pass up, but once we had Choi, it stands to reason that if the budget was very thin, maybe we don't throw most of it at Santana.

I like Santana and the veteran leadership angle, but if the budget is really such an issue, then I think it's fair to wonder whether or not it would have made sense to take his money or Choi's money and put it together with Velasquez's or something and then you'd have enough for Manaea. This second line of criticism is lessened for me somewhat if we pony up for Wacha or Kluber, but I don't expect that to happen.

From the outside, I think you can actually look at the moves overall and conclude that they make a certain kind of sense given where things are realistically at right now. It's addressing the major problems with actual competent MLB players and trying to get a real step forward from 100-loss hell. The obvious problem is that no team should really be allowed to linger with the kind of extended tear-down and tank job that we did while rolling out churned waiver player after churned waiver player for multiple important roster spots. In other words, the bar is only as low as it is due to this obvious tanking and poor job in earlier seasons. I'll be glad to watch a more mediocre team that might have Connor Joe, Santana, Choi, and Andujar helping out, and that's better than VanMeter, Tom, etc etc., but that's also not saying much.
 


I'm sure this is really nothing, but I'm all for signing Cutch. It would make the Joe trade a little bit more random/redundant, but I think there'd still be room. It wouldn't be the most ringing endorsement of the already seemingly not great young OF options, but realistically I think you can say that a lot of these options (Marcano, CSN, Mitchell) are more the type of guys who should have to earn a spot rather than worry about blocking them.

Besides the obvious homecoming and fan favorite etc. angle, Cutch also rounds out a way for the team to not just be carved up by any LHP we happen to face. And he would further cement the obvious common element that the additions of Choi, Santana, and Joe have all brought, which is very good BB rates and for most of them also good K rates (Choi Ks a lot, but he and the rest are all pretty much 10+ BB%).

Cutch got 1/8.5M last year but is coming off a down year still, and so I'd expect that to decrease just a bit. I would think that like someone like Kluber, his best play might be to see how the dust settles for various contenders and then sign onto a respectable veteran bench deal and look to win. Obviously, similar could also happen in terms of signing here and being traded, and the big advantage with Cutch is still that he lives in Pittsburgh.

I wonder if a good option for him might be a 1 year + option year quasi-retirement type contract here. Get some guaranteed money and the option to re-emerge as a veteran leader of the team that drafted him as a new wave of talent emerges, and if things go well to stay around for a possible final year when the team has a more legitimate shot at a wild card or divisional run. If he remains a well-disciplined veteran hitter who can flirt with 10 SB and 20 HRs, that's still very useful. Honestly, it wouldn't be the worst gamble in the world to pay him a little more for 2023 with a more team friendly 2024 option. Something like 8M now, option for 5M could work out pretty well if he's a bit more productive than his 2022 season for however many he has left.
 
I actually think McCutchen would make sense with a corresponding Andujar DFA. That would give you Suwinski in LF, Reynolds in CF and McCutchen in RF with Joe as the 4th OF. I think everything Andujar brings would be replaced fully between Joe and McCutchen. You get the righty bat with McCutchen and the OF/1B position flexibility with Joe.

DFAing Andujar and signing McCutchen would leave the Pirates with:

C: Hedges
1B: Choi
2B: Castro
3B: Hayes
SS: Cruz
LF: Suwinski
CF: Reynolds
RF: McCutchen
DH: Santana
Bench: Castillo, Joe and Heineman
 
Like I said a few days ago, I think the Pirates will ultimately have to show some sort of promise before they can get any UFAs to sign here. The Pirates could just overpay to get these guys in theory, but you know this ownership won't approve of that. The only notable money guys they'll pull off are guys who want to be there or reclamation projects. Until they're a legitimate contender or at least a team showing promise, I don't think that will really change.

I think Cherington did ultimately want to add a starting pitcher on a multi-year deal this off-season, but the sales pitch of "we were a 100 loss team and we won't overpay you to have you come here" isn't going to have many suitors.
Lol… showing improvement isn’t going to get UFA’s here…. Because they still won’t sign any good ones even if they do improve
 
I'm a bit skeptical that we'd DFA Andujar prior to at least spring training or a few months into the season, since we went out to get him last year and then settled prior to arbitration to keep him. It's hard to say for sure because this front office has certainly taken an approach to roster construction that is more churn and burn than establish key positions and keep everyone locked in, but I think it would be a little bit of a stretch.

I look at the roster like this right now:
3B Hayes
SS Cruz
CF/LF Reynolds
C Hedges
Bench Backup C like Heineman

That's 5 iron clad spots, leaving 8 spots left to cover starters at 1B, DH, LF, RF, 2B and three bench spots. I think the Pirates tend to see these 5 spots as to some extent interchangeable, probably with the exception that you want a real infielder for 2B and at least a decent defender for LF rather than an infielder playing in the OF (this has been a major issue for ages). I do think Castro should be penciled in at 2B for now, and this is how I'd rank the remaining 8 players in order of likelihood to have a spot nailed down, hypothetically assuming Cutch is signed:

Veteran tier:
Santana
McCutchen
Choi (any order for all three; there's money tied up with them and you aren't ditching a veteran)

Young player, currently more likely to start tier:
Castro
Bae
Suwinski

Bench/rotation:
Joe
Andujar

That pretty much covers it and means that Mitchell, CSN, Marcano, and Castillo would all be starting in AAA. That's a reasonable enough assumption in terms of depth chart and performance. Nobody has fully earned a spot heading into spring training, and I think you could probably make the case that any of the last five players I listed could be bested for a spot by one of these four or someone else.

The main domino might be what happens with 2B and how the OF shapes up. My assumption has been Castro at 2B with Bae potentially pushing for starting time in the OF (and perhaps having Reynolds move over to LF, which might cause some drama re: his trade value or extension leverage) and Suwinski being a platoon option with Joe and/or Andujar. In the scenario I chart out, Bae would also be the backup SS. Castillo is possibly capable in that role and perhaps a strong winter + spring training gives him some edge over Castro.

In any case, I don't think there's any need to go way into the weeds. Laying it out like this makes it clear that Cutch would be side by side with Andujar, but I think it's too far to assume we'd DFA Andujar to make the move.

My take is that you could make the signing and go with something like the above to start the year, and then go performance-based with the bottom 5 players. If we signed Cutch, he's in the mix permanently, and so maybe that doesn't give them the flexibility that they'd want. But I think with this depth chart, you have some ok options in the event of injury, and you can easily DFA Joe or Andujar if they aren't performing sometime in May, with the possibility of promoting and optioning the young players depending on performance.

This would also give you a legitimate lineup vs. LHP and (maybe to our misfortune) give Shelton a bunch of options to make adjustments mid-game. I think it works pretty well since even assuming Endy pushes for a promotion early than the Super Two cutoff in June, that swap is easy with the backup catcher, and likely by the time Davis would push for a promotion, there will either be injury or you might trade a Santana or Choi, etc. Those are the main two young players I see pushing for a promotion, and if anyone else in the system is actually pushing for one, it's not like that's a bad problem to have on your hands.
 
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I actually think McCutchen would make sense with a corresponding Andujar DFA. That would give you Suwinski in LF, Reynolds in CF and McCutchen in RF with Joe as the 4th OF. I think everything Andujar brings would be replaced fully between Joe and McCutchen. You get the righty bat with McCutchen and the OF/1B position flexibility with Joe.

DFAing Andujar and signing McCutchen would leave the Pirates with:

C: Hedges
1B: Choi
2B: Castro
3B: Hayes
SS: Cruz
LF: Suwinski
CF: Reynolds
RF: McCutchen
DH: Santana
Bench: Castillo, Joe and Heineman
Just let the Cutch thing go PLEASE
 
Well let's be clear, I'm not expecting the Pirates to actually bring in McCutchen, I just think DFAing Andujar is the easiest way to make McCutchen work. The issue with keeping Andujar while also signing McCutchen is that you suddenly do not have a lot of infield position flexibility, namely guys who can play the middle infield in case Castro or Cruz needs a day off. That's actually why I think Castillo is a fairly safe bet to make the MLB team, they need one of those infield super utility guys on the bench.

On Andujar in general, I don't think they'll DFA him so quickly but I don't know what he provides at this point. I think any sort of position flexibility he may offer (which is debatable for him in the OF IMO) was fully replaced by Joe, who is definitely viable at 1B and in both corner OF spots. Joe is also a righty bat, although he's not much of a hitter overall. Even without McCutchen, he's already teetering on DFA range for me so I can keep up a more versatile defensive player.

Without any more additions, I think my goal lineup to start next year would be:

C: Hedges
1B: Choi
2B: Castro
3B: Hayes
SS: Cruz
LF: Reynolds
CF: Bae
RF: Suwinski
DH: Santana
Bench: Joe (platoon with Choi and 4th OF), Castillo (backup 2B/3B/SS) and Heineman

You can also switch Reynolds and Bae if you want, I don't think it makes a huge difference with how cavernous PNC Park's LF is.
 
Cutch would sell some tickets. Probably be the reason to bring him in. And maybe he can help mentor a bit.

Love the guy, wouldn’t mind it at all.
 
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Well let's be clear, I'm not expecting the Pirates to actually bring in McCutchen, I just think DFAing Andujar is the easiest way to make McCutchen work. The issue with keeping Andujar while also signing McCutchen is that you suddenly do not have a lot of infield position flexibility, namely guys who can play the middle infield in case Castro or Cruz needs a day off. That's actually why I think Castillo is a fairly safe bet to make the MLB team, they need one of those infield super utility guys on the bench.

On Andujar in general, I don't think they'll DFA him so quickly but I don't know what he provides at this point. I think any sort of position flexibility he may offer (which is debatable for him in the OF IMO) was fully replaced by Joe, who is definitely viable at 1B and in both corner OF spots. Joe is also a righty bat, although he's not much of a hitter overall. Even without McCutchen, he's already teetering on DFA range for me so I can keep up a more versatile defensive player.

Without any more additions, I think my goal lineup to start next year would be:

C: Hedges
1B: Choi
2B: Castro
3B: Hayes
SS: Cruz
LF: Reynolds
CF: Bae
RF: Suwinski
DH: Santana
Bench: Joe (platoon with Choi and 4th OF), Castillo (backup 2B/3B/SS) and Heineman

You can also switch Reynolds and Bae if you want, I don't think it makes a huge difference with how cavernous PNC Park's LF is.
Yeah, I think that's a good point about IF depth. Joe already somewhat makes Andujar redundant, but with the depth chart I unfurled, there isn't a lot of room for error. In theory, Bae can back up at 2B/SS and Castro can spell Hayes at 3B, so it's a possibility, but I think Castillo has a decent likelihood to get a shot.

I do basically think that both Joe and Andujar make sense as RH guys to give some run to in part time roles and see if anyone seizes the bull by the horns. There's no reason to rush to DFA them, but that's always an option if they struggle and there's a replacement or 40-man crunch.

The 40-man is another question in terms of making another bat addition or another pitching addition, but there are still a few guys who can and will be shaved off at some point. I think the roster and depth decisions have a way of working themselves out, at least until things change and there are some more spots that are really locked down by one player.

At the end of the day, I think Cutch would make the flexibility a bit too restrained, but I don't exactly think that he crowds out young players. Bae and Suwinski are fairly decent bets to break spring training with the team, but at least those two spots plus the spots of Joe and Andujar could be claimed by someone performing too well in AAA to go unnoticed. Cutch adding 18-20 HRs and good plate discipline to lengthen the lineup would be a general upgrade, but I'd be surprised if it happened. The bigger remaining need is still a veteran pitcher IMO, and we should be willing to go up to 10-12M to get one and cover some innings, as that's been a huge achilles heel on all of these terrible teams.
 


Figures... and also kind of goes without saying, but the Cubs are essentially managing to go through a tear down/rebuild that never sinked to the level of the recent Pirates and already seems to have a pretty big leg up. A couple of decent signings and the Cubs are more of a team that can hang around third place easier. I don't think an optimistic view of the Pirates places them horribly behind, and both the Brewers and Cardinals have some obvious warts, but it's still likely the 4th best team on paper.

In other news, it sort of seems like the Yankees are completely out on Conforto. I think we need to see a couple more of the main FAs sign and then by the end of the year/early January, we'll see Reynolds rumors heating up. My sense is that the Yankees are still going to be strongly in on him, and that a trade will get done if BC is willing to take Dominguez+Peraza or something like that as the headliner. I don't see the Yankees moving Volpe, though there are some questions about Volpe's upside at shortstop. I also don't really think Dominguez is absolutely this special prospect right now. It honestly might be the kind of thing where it's a gamble both ways if we head into the season: Reynolds could perform well and raise his value some, or he could get hurt, and similarly, Dominguez is someone who could re-establish a lot of hype with a strong AA showing, or he could be somewhat up and down and look like a more run of the mill everyday OF type of prospect.
 
Do the Pirates have a self imposed annual player salary cap at 7 mil, cause they seem reluctant to go over that figure, or are they trying to stay under the figure where they have everything paid before they make any game revenue?
 

Yes, because their 40 man roster doesn't have a ton of infield position flexibility, while they have a shitload of OFers. I don't understand DFAing Castillo over Mitchell based purely on that.

Castillo isn't good, but they don't really have anyone else who fits the super utility IF role on their 40 man. Unless they sign a 2B and push Castro to that super utility IF role, I don't know how they're going to address that position.
 
Yes, because their 40 man roster doesn't have a ton of infield position flexibility, while they have a shitload of OFers.

I don't understand DFAing Castillo over Mitchell based purely on that.
1. They have guys knocking at the dorr in the middle infield.

2. He was terrible across the board. Poor defensively and hit like a back up catcher.

3. Mitchell at least has a punchers chance of being an mlb bench bat as he at least hit well in AAA and is 2 years younger.
 
1. They have guys knocking at the dorr in the middle infield.

2. He was terrible across the board. Poor defensively and hit like a back up catcher.

3. Mitchell at least has a punchers chance of being an mlb bench bat as he at least hit well in AAA and is 2 years younger.

Mitchell has a pretty swing too.
 
1. They have guys knocking at the dorr in the middle infield.

That's not my point, my point was who's going to be the super utility guy right now. They're not going to call up one of their good prospects to sit as a utility IF on the bench.

2. He was terrible across the board. Poor defensively and hit like a back up catcher. 3. Mitchell at least has a punchers chance of being an mlb bench bat as he at least hit well in AAA and is 2 years younger.

Mitchell was literally just as shitty in the majors last year as Castillo. Mitchell had an OPS+ of 79 and a -0.7 dWAR in 69 games. Castillo had an OPS+ of 76 and a -0.7 dWAR in 96 games.

Neither are good players, both look like AAAA players. The difference is that the Pirates don't have a ton of guys in Castillo's role while they're literally swimming in guys exactly like Mitchell.
 
That's not my point, my point was who's going to be the super utility guy right now. They're not going to call up one of their good prospects to sit as a utility IF on the bench.



Mitchell was literally just as shitty in the majors last year as Castillo. Mitchell had an OPS+ of 79 and a -0.7 dWAR in 69 games. Castillo had an OPS+ of 76 and a -0.7 dWAR in 96 games.

Neither are good players, both look like AAAA players. The difference is that the Pirates don't have a ton of guys in Castillo's role while they're literally swimming in guys exactly like Mitchell.
Adressing #2 first:

Yes they were equally as shotty but 1 is 2 years younger and has a better minor league track record as a hitter. With an outside chance at being a useful bench bat. The other just sucks.

Addressing point 1:

Who cares right now. If you need to bring in an additional utility infielder later on theyre easy to find. And by then someone will be either hurt (60 day) or sucked enough to be dfa’d.

The worst case scenario is you need a guy then dfa Mitchell later. Essentially trading Castillo for “New Guy” which, seriously, who cares.
 
I mean, you can say Castillo sucks and have it be completely valid, but my comment wasn't as much about Castillo as much as it is about IF depth. The Pirates have lost a lot of IF depth from their team last year and they really haven't brought in anyone to replace those guys lost. They've gotten rid of Newman, VanMeter, Castillo and Park from last year's team and they haven't brought in anyone as far as I can tell to replace those innings. Those guys aren't good, but that's not the point. The point is that someone has to play those innings.

Who cares right now. If you need to bring in an additional utility infielder later on theyre easy to find. And by then someone will be either hurt (60 day) or sucked enough to be dfa’d.

The worst case scenario is you need a guy then dfa Mitchell later. Essentially trading Castillo for “New Guy” which, seriously, who cares.

Literally the Pirates should because someone has to play those innings.

They need someone to fill that role now, because they've lost about 85 starts at 2nd base between Newman, VanMeter and Castillo and 65 starts at SS between Newman and Castillo. Who have they brought in to replace them? No one as far as I can tell. You're not going to play Bae 140 games in his first season at 2nd base.
 
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