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OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

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ImporterExporter said:
Yanks gave up their 4-6 (that's where Chuk is pretty much ranked everywhere), borderline top 10 prospect (Medina) and borderline top 20 (Sears) + Bowman.

That's a nice return for a guy who's a #3 starter for the next 1.5 years.

The Pirates should absolutely be getting a headliner that includes someone in the top 10 of an org based on what's out there as comps.

My hope is Toronto, Philly, or Seattle.
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I would be over the moon if we got that kind of return. It seems we always have to settle for less
 
sovietsanta87 said:
I would be over the moon if we got that kind of return. It seems we always have to settle for less
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Oh, I'm not saying we should expect that. I'd take guy in the 7-10 range + a Holderman type. I think that would be more than fair given what other fairly similar arms have brought back. But it very well could basically be Tyler Anderson type return. DJ is not off base in taking that position as a real possibility.

The fact there still has been nothing worthwhile on Q is not yet worrisome. He was always going to be in this 3rd tier. Now that Montas is off the board, I'd expect something to break loose either later this evening or pretty darn early tomorrow.

If you get into late morning and nothing has been talked about on that front, we may just hang onto him. The only reason you keep him is an extension has been agreed upon or at least the intention of returning. You cannot keep him and then let him walk in the winter.
 
DocEmrickSkitters said:
Teams don't take it as seriously though. Your original question, a team would take an ascending offensive force like Riley many times over a nifty glovesman who sometimes flashes being able to hit like Hayes. And frankly the team thinks it is more sustainable. Riley and Hayes aren't even in the same category. Simmons is a much better comp for Hayes.
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I wasn't saying that they should take Hayes over Riley, they should take Riley because he's just an obviously better player. I just don't think the difference is the $11.5 million a year or so difference between the two.
 
Empoleon8771 said:
I wasn't saying that they should take Hayes over Riley, they should take Riley because he's just an obviously better player. I just don't think the difference is the $11.5 million a year or so difference between the two.
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Setting aside the limitations of such an obsessive reliance upon WAR, it's about projection and not past performance anyway. Riley's trendline is that of a future star. Hayes' trendline is that of a below-average offensive corner IF.

blogs.fangraphs.com

Braves Lock Up Another Core Bat With 10-Year Extension for Austin Riley

Baseball’s hottest hitter scores a monster pre-arbitration deal.
blogs.fangraphs.com blogs.fangraphs.com

ZiPS projects that if Riley hit free agency this winter, he’d merit a 10-year, $258 million contract, though he wasn’t going to get quite that much as a consequence of not making it to the open market until after the 2025 season. The computer projects arbitration year salaries of $9.2 million, $15.5 million, and $21.3 million, giving an overall estimate of $202 million over 10 years. In other words, my projections consider this a very reasonable contract, one in which Riley is selling his free agent years to Atlanta at a fair price.
 
I'm actually really curious for what the Pythagorean win percentage will say for this, so I'm going to run a hypothetical. For this assumption, I'm going to do the following:

1. To figure out a rough idea of how many runs a team full of Hayes would produce, I'm going to try to take an average of a few teams who are similar in OPS and average out to equal Hayes' OPS+ of 91. Coincidentally, if you average the total OPS+ of the Diamondbacks, Orioles, Royals, Angels, Marlins, Reds and Pirates, you get exactly a 91 OPS+. Those 7 teams have an average runs/game of 4.01, which is well below league average of 4.33. That would have a Hayes only offense be 24th in the MLB in runs/game and 27th in OPS+. Is this the most scientific way? No, but I don't know of a much better way to try and correlate an OPS+ to a runs/game
2. For defense, I'm going to go through the 2021-2022 seasons and take the best defensive player at every position and sum up their DRS, then average it out for the equivalent of 162 games (1458 innings). I don't think you can literally assign Hayes DRS to every position, I think a better analogy would be a team full of guys like Hayes, Simmons, Edman, Stallings and such than to just apply Hayes' DRS to all positions. I think using the "best" is also fair because Hayes and Arenado are clearly the two best defensive 3rd basemen. That gives you:

C: Trevino: 23 DRS in 1222 innings, adjusted to 27 DRS in 162 games
1B: Walker: 18 DRS in 1658 innings, adjusted to 16 DRS in 162 games
2B: Edman: 18 DRS in 1454 innings, adjusted to 18 DRS in 162 games
SS: Simmons: 19 DRS in 1195 innings, adjusted to 23 DRS in 162 games
3B: Hayes: 31 DRS in 1554 innings, adjusted to 29 DRS in 162 games
LF: O'Neill: 12 DRS in 1557 innings, adjusted to 11 DRS in 162 games
CF: Taylor: 27 DRS in 1796 innings, adjusted to 22 DRS in 162 games
RF: Tucker: 24 DRS in 1936 innings, adjusted to 18 DRS in 162 games

If you would have asked me who would be on this "all defense" team, I would have guessed Hayes, Taylor, Simmons and Edman for sure. Stallings was 2nd and would have been 1st had we not included this year, he was at 21 DRS in 892 innings but has been a huge negative this year (-5 DRS in 608 innings). If you sum up the DRS, you get a total DRS of 164 runs saved above average. My thought was to subtract those runs saved off of the average runs per game, so you're basically at -1 run against per game compared to the average because of that defense. In total, this leaves you:

Offensive: 4.01 runs/game
Defensive: 3.32 runs against/game

This team would be giving up runs like the Yankees and Dodgers, while only scoring them like the Mariners and Marlins. The closest real-life team I can find to these numbers (2nd best runs against but 24th runs for) was the 2016 Mets, who were 3rd in runs against but 26th in runs for. They went 87-75 and lost in the Wildcard. In terms of the Pythagorean Winning%, a team with that production would have 650 runs for and 538 runs against, which results in a .593 winning%. That's a record of 96-66.

TL,DR: With an average pitching staff, a team full of Hayes type of players would be expected to go 96-66 over a full season according to this.
 
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It's going to be very meh. Worst case scenario IMO. The Cards aren't going to help us out any.

Edit, pleasently surprised if that guy is correct...
 
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DJ Spinoza said:


If true, at a glance this doesn't seem that bad. Better than I thought it would be.
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Borderline top 10 org. prospect + Holderman arm. We'll see, but can't be terribly upset w/that. Nunez has some real pop.

With the additions of Oviedo and Holderman, + the emergence of DL Santos, one definitely has to wonder if Bednar will be moved. Has to be at least 50/50 now.
 
ImporterExporter said:
Borderline top 10 org. prospect + Holderman arm. We'll see, but can't be terribly upset w/that. Nunez has some real pop.

With the additions of Oviedo and Holderman, + the emergence of DL Santos, one definitely has to wonder if Bednar will be moved. Has to be at least 50/50 now.
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I don't think adding a guy with a 5.58 ERA at AAA will be the tipping point in whether to trade Bednar or not.
 
Oveido is interesting because he was used as a starter up until this year. 93 of his 97 appearances in the minors were as a starter. I imagine they give him a shot at Quintana's role in the starting rotation, but then move him to the bullpen if he can't work there. But then again, he's mostly been bad as a starter and is now showing promise as a bullpen arm, so moving him back into the rotation may not be the best idea.

Nunez is a nice get, gives me a bit of Suwinski vibes at the plate from looking at him. He's a 40 FV prospect and listed as a DH according to Fangraphs. His hitting tools are fairly well rounded, but yeah, he's sure as hell not playing the field or doing much running. Which is bizarre because he's only 5'11" and 205 lbs.

Overall meh.
 
One more thing on Nunez: despite him having what seems like a terrible future as a defensive player, the Carsinals have only played him 8 games at DH. He has 68 games at 1st and only has 3 errors in 496 chances. Hard to complain about him defensively if he's doing that.
 
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ImporterExporter said:
We have a pretty gaping hole at 1B. Seems like he'll profile as a 3B/1B/DH. Only 21 and has a ton of pop and looks like he really knows how to take a walk.

Interesting addition if it's true.
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Yeah. 5’11 first baseman isn’t ideal. BA doesn’t give scouting grades for him but it doesn’t sound like he could move to RF Due to his speed.

Oviedo is a big boy That throws hard. The only video I could find was against the brewers. His slider looked flat and inconsistent but he’s still young so we’ll see.
 
Empoleon8771 said:
Oveido is interesting because he was used as a starter up until this year. 93 of his 97 appearances in the minors were as a starter. I imagine they give him a shot at Quintana's role in the starting rotation, but then move him to the bullpen if he can't work there. But then again, he's mostly been bad as a starter and is now showing promise as a bullpen arm, so moving him back into the rotation may not be the best idea.

Nunez is a nice get, gives me a bit of Suwinski vibes at the plate from looking at him. He's a 40 FV prospect and listed as a DH according to Fangraphs. His hitting tools are fairly well rounded, but yeah, he's sure as hell not playing the field or doing much running. Which is bizarre because he's only 5'11" and 205 lbs.

Overall meh.
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He’s been in relief all season so I doubt they move Him into the rotation. I’d imagine they view him as a setup guy if everything works out in the future.

Not a bad return for a guy that was on his last MLB team before being forgotten.
 
Also to note, if true, this again highlights that we're pivoting away from low A dart throws and focusing on upper minor players who can help add depth to areas of need (in this case 1B and RP).
 
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