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OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

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Wow, great, great return for Oakland.



Montas is a pure rental. Yeah, he's younger than Quintana but they have very similar numbers on the year and Q is a lefty.

Obviously Trivino was also included but even if you only get half of that return for Q, it'll be a couple of solid prospects at least.
 
I think Montas has one more year of control. A lot hinges on what you think about Waldichuk. If he makes it as a #2/3 type, it's a pretty nice headliner, but it reads a little more quantity over quality to me. If I were Oakland, I would have wanted to try and get Peraza.

Honestly I do not think things bode well for the Quintana return. It should be better than Anderson, but that's not difficult to do. Minnesota and Toronto have some interesting names, but I am preparing to be underwhelmed.
 
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Yanks gave up their 4-6 (that's where Chuk is pretty much ranked everywhere), borderline top 10 prospect (Medina) and borderline top 20 (Sears) + Bowman.

That's a nice return for a guy who's a #3 starter for the next 1.5 years.

The Pirates should absolutely be getting a headliner that includes someone in the top 10 of an org based on what's out there as comps.

My hope is Toronto, Philly, or Seattle.
 
sovietsanta87 said:
Too early to tell on 2020 draft. You’re talking two years since the players were drafted and they had zero development until 2021. Obviously the arrow is pointed down but let’s give it some more time before we make any definitive claims of success/failure
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But 2021's draft is great?

So when things aren't looking good it's too early to tell, but when things are going well we should crown it.

Double-standards galore.

Look man, I'm giving him a C+ and 2 more years either way. Just don't ask me to fall over myself for tanking.
 
ImporterExporter said:
Yanks gave up their 4-6 (that's where Chuk is pretty much ranked everywhere), borderline top 10 prospect (Medina) and borderline top 20 (Sears) + Bowman.

That's a nice return for a guy who's a #3 starter for the next 1.5 years.

The Pirates should absolutely be getting a headliner that includes someone in the top 10 of an org based on what's out there as comps.

My hope is Toronto, Philly, or Seattle.
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Yeah, I don't think it's awful, but if I were Oakland I would really have preferred a different second player than Medina. The dude has no idea where the ball is going. Maybe makes sense as a third player or even for a pure rental, as a lotto ticket, but I would have wanted something a little more for Montas.

I agree about the possible landing spots, and the market might be scarce enough to get that overpay. Honestly, trusting in Dombo, I am hoping that Quintana plus a second player for Falter. It just feels like a lower profile move that he'd definitely make. Maybe they like a bullpen guy like Peters or Underwood for a specific kind of purpose and it makes sense for them. I think Falter straight up for Quintana is too much for their blood, but it's not so far out of control depending on how they view him.
 
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DocEmrickSkitters said:
But 2021's draft is great?

So when things aren't looking good it's too early to tell, but when things are going well we should crown it.

Double-standards galore.

Look man, I'm giving him a C+ and 2 more years either way. Just don't ask me to fall over myself for tanking.
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The 2021 draft was excellent on paper because we got 4 top 35 prospects. But the success of that draft can’t be known until a couple years down the road
 
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Braves fans seem to love this but this seems insane considering what Hayes got. Even if you just look at the last 2 years, Hayes is about a 4.5 WAR player per 162 games while Riley is a 6.5 WAR player per 162 games. Is that 2 WAR difference enough to justify the 2.5x cost? I'm just not sure.
 
sovietsanta87 said:
Would love to trade Quintana for a solid prospect. If the padres are desperate and want to unload their whole system for Reynolds, so be it.
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With so many playoff teams needed a CF Reynolds would fetch a huge prospect hull but I think BC wants to extend him and have him be the next face like Cutch with this down season he should be cheaper
 
MrBrightside said:
If you ever find anything you like 1% as much as Empoleon likes WAR, marry it.
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WAR is fine in of itself, but Hayes is pushing the boundaries of its explanatory power.

I just flat out refuse to believe a 3B can be worth 5-6 wins with a glove alone. It strains credulity.
Or it's something I regress to 2.5-3 wins even with gold glove defense. The 5-6 wins must be a sample size anomaly or some other weird calc stuff.

Starling Marte played gold glove defense at LF and was a much better hitter than Hayes currently, and was a 4-5 win player. That is Hayes' ceiling at this juncture.
 
DocEmrickSkitters said:
WAR is fine in of itself, but Hayes is pushing the boundaries of its explanatory power.

I just flat out refuse to believe a 3B can be worth 5-6 wins with a glove alone. It strains credulity.
Or it's something I regress to 2.5-3 wins even with gold glove defense. The 5-6 wins must be a sample size anomaly or some other weird calc stuff.

Starling Marte played gold glove defense at LF and was a much better hitter than Hayes currently, and was a 4-5 win player. That is Hayes' ceiling at this juncture.
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Or maybe you're just wrong about how WAR is calculated and you don't want to believe it because you don't think Hayes should be rated that highly :dunno:

Hayes' defensive runs saved above average this year is +15. What would that correspond to for a +15 runs scored above average as a hitter at this point in the year? I imagine it would be pretty damn good.
 
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DocEmrickSkitters said:
If our lineup was 8 Hayes-esque players and a DH wed win 110 games?
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I mean yeah, probably. Especially if you had a pitching staff well built for that kind of all-defense team.

Hayes as a 3rd baseman this year has saved 15 runs above average on the year from his defensive play. If you had a defense of only that kind of guy, the only kind of runs you'd be giving up are homeruns.
 
Empoleon8771 said:
I mean yeah, probably. Especially if you had a pitching staff well built for that kind of all-defense team.

Hayes as a 3rd baseman this year has saved 15 runs above average on the year from his defensive play. If you had a defense of only that kind of guy, the only kind of runs you'd be giving up are homeruns.
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I'm at the gym - what was Arenado at (of course knowing he could actually hit?)

And what was Andrealton Simmons at...why is t he getting paid now?
 
DocEmrickSkitters said:
I'm at the gym - what was Arenado at (of course knowing he could actually hit?)

And what was Andrealton Simmons at...why is t he getting paid now?
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Arenado is the exact as Hayes, he's also at a 15 DRS.

I'm going to try to do a calculation later of what a team full of Hayes could do using the pythagorean winning percentage. It shouldn't be too hard on paper. You should in theory be able to see the predicted record for a team of below average hitters with that defense should do.
 
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Empoleon8771 said:
Arenado is the exact as Hayes, he's also at a 15 DRS.

I'm going to try to do a calculation later of what a team full of Hayes could do using the pythagorean winning percentage. It shouldn't be too hard on paper. You should in theory be able to see the predicted record for a team of below average hitters with that defense should do.
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Teams don't take it as seriously though. Your original question, a team would take an ascending offensive force like Riley many times over a nifty glovesman who sometimes flashes being able to hit like Hayes. And frankly the team thinks it is more sustainable. Riley and Hayes aren't even in the same category. Simmons is a much better comp for Hayes.
 
Also IMO, and I certainly can't quantify this, but the shifting has resulted in higher defensive value on 3Bs. When the shift is banned I expect the ceiling on the value of 3b defense to go down.

BBref also has Hayes at 1.4 offensive WAR this season, which...okay.
 
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