OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

[WheresRamziAbid]

My MLB Development coach buddy would disagree with you on the Griffey comp. He also doesn't see it with the Wade Boggs and Vladimir guerrera Jr comparisons. Says only a handful of scouts are talking about him like that, but does see a 70 grade bat with 60 grade power and a high floor. Likes the pick, preferred the higher risk in Green though @#4.

I dont understand why anyone would purposely want to add risk to a 70/60 hitting profile. Thats star territory.

If that has a high floor why the hell would you add risk for marginal upside

 

[MrBrightside]

I actually like Pirates Prospects in the proper context.

I think Gally misrepresented the position of the site as being unabashedly pro-Cherington since they are the most knowledgeable. Specifically that Tim Williams, the owner, thinks the BC administration is worlds better than the NH administration. Which is funny because Tim was as bullish is at comes about the NH administration. Gally reconciled that by saying that Tim spoke at length about the "error in his ways" when it came to uncritical analysis.

Doesn't add up. Thankfully it doesn't really have to. Individual development of baseball players may be subjective and unquantifiable but holistically you can look at the actual results to see if things are moving in the right direction. Baseball is a game of stats.

I'd definitely trust Tim Williams to inform me of what's going on with Fabricio Macias. But I wouldn't trust his judgment over anyone else's on a holistic assumption of the organization.

Pirates Prospects is a source that can have good information, but its usefulness as a source of good info was always limited to me in that Tim clearly decided to present things through rose-colored lenses, whether because he thought that that's what his readers wanted or because of access or whatever. When I read about prospects I want a real, objective, and reasoned assessment, not just positive spin (and I'm really not sure why people don't want to get the real scoop - Yohe gets pummeled on the hockey board because he's so unwilling to be objective as to certain players).

And yes, Tim and his ilk defended Huntington vociferously until the end, and now he's used as an excuse for Cherington. It's a bit maddening.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I know the return on Q will be meh in all likelihood, but it certainly seems like sellers are going to be the big winners.

Bednar would obviously bring back more. But I'd like to hold onto him. Plenty of years left and no rush to get rid of a high end bullpen guy. You can always revisit a trade down the line.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I actually think you need to do a bit more this off-season than just cut the fat and let the young guys play. I think you need to go outside of the organization to address at least 2 of the C, DH and 1B position. Like I posted a few days ago, my ideal off-season for this year (speaking realistically) would have the Pirates signing:

1. Quintana or another fringe #3/4 starter to a multi-year deal in free agency.
2. A lefty platoon for Chavis in either the DH or 1B spot.
3. A righty DH or 1B that can hit both lefties and righties.
4. A starting C

I would honestly even be fine with giving Perez another shot at #4, I thought he was great before he got hurt. Re-signing Quintana and Perez and adding someone like Flores (#3) and Naquin (#2) in free agency would make the batting lineup look pretty decent IMO:

1. Hayes (3B)
2. Cruz (SS)
3. Reynolds (CF)
4. Suwinski (RF)
5. Flores (1B)
6. Chavis/Naquin platoon (DH)
7. Newman (2B)
8. Marcano/Mitchell/Madris (LF)
9. Perez (C)

You'll let the young guys battle it out for the LF spot and just let the hot hand play.

 

[MrBrightside]

I actually think you need to do a bit more this off-season than just cut the fat and let the young guys play. I think you need to go outside of the organization to address at least 2 of the C, DH and 1B position. Like I posted a few days ago, my ideal off-season for this year (speaking realistically) would have the Pirates signing:

1. Quintana or another fringe #3/4 starter to a multi-year deal in free agency.
2. A lefty platoon for Chavis in either the DH or 1B spot.
3. A righty DH or 1B that can hit both lefties and righties.
4. A starting C

I would honestly even be fine with giving Perez another shot at #4, I thought he was great before he got hurt. Re-signing Quintana and Perez and adding someone like Flores (#3) and Naquin (#2) in free agency would make the batting lineup look pretty decent IMO:

1. Hayes (3B)
2. Cruz (SS)
3. Reynolds (CF)
4. Suwinski (RF)
5. Flores (1B)
6. Chavis/Naquin platoon (DH)
7. Newman (2B)
8. Marcano/Mitchell/Madris (LF)
9. Perez (C)

You'll let the young guys battle it out for the LF spot and just let the hot hand play.

That lineup would be pretty awful.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Pirates Prospects is a source that can have good information, but its usefulness as a source of good info was always limited to me in that Tim clearly decided to present things through rose-colored lenses, whether because he thought that that's what his readers wanted or because of access or whatever. When I read about prospects I want a real, objective, and reasoned assessment, not just positive spin (and I'm really not sure why people don't want to get the real scoop - Yohe gets pummeled on the hockey board because he's so unwilling to be objective as to certain players).

And yes, Tim and his ilk defended Huntington vociferously until the end, and now he's used as an excuse for Cherington. It's a bit maddening.

I think it's like, what are you going to say as far as prospect development goes?

The numbers are what they are and then if Tim is doing his job he'll interview the coaches and the player. The coaches/player aren't going to say "yeah it's hopeless," they are going to call out what they are working on. Here's what we have, here's what we want to improve, etc.

Take it all and put it all in its proper context. We don't know which prospects will succeed and which won't. It's a numbers game.

I also think, now that I've started looking at what Tim has been posting again, that Gallatin basically projected his own thoughts onto Tim. Tim himself ain't happy with things. That's clear from his writing.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Wow now THIS is a blockbuster:

 

[TotesTorts]

I actually think you need to do a bit more this off-season than just cut the fat and let the young guys play. I think you need to go outside of the organization to address at least 2 of the C, DH and 1B position. Like I posted a few days ago, my ideal off-season for this year (speaking realistically) would have the Pirates signing:

1. Quintana or another fringe #3/4 starter to a multi-year deal in free agency.
2. A lefty platoon for Chavis in either the DH or 1B spot.
3. A righty DH or 1B that can hit both lefties and righties.
4. A starting C

I would honestly even be fine with giving Perez another shot at #4, I thought he was great before he got hurt. Re-signing Quintana and Perez and adding someone like Flores (#3) and Naquin (#2) in free agency would make the batting lineup look pretty decent IMO:

1. Hayes (3B)
2. Cruz (SS)
3. Reynolds (CF)
4. Suwinski (RF)
5. Flores (1B)
6. Chavis/Naquin platoon (DH)
7. Newman (2B)
8. Marcano/Mitchell/Madris (LF)
9. Perez (C)

You'll let the young guys battle it out for the LF spot and just let the hot hand play.

I would prefer to go with someone like Trey Mancini to kill three birds with one stone (DH + 1B and OF depth).

Suwinski in LF. Mitchell RF. Marcano in 2B. Newman with another team.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Wow now THIS is a blockbuster:

My god is it a sellers market.

Oh, by the way. Another pro Cherington angle is the fact he has refused to move Reynolds and it doesn't sound like it's even a remote possibility.

You want commitment? Extended Hayes and seemingly is trying to retain BR. Two things that people went on and on about this past off season.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I would prefer to go with someone like Trey Mancini to kill three birds with one stone (DH + 1B and OF depth).

Suwinski in LF. Mitchell RF. Marcano in 2B. Newman with another team.

Mancini would be a decent option as well, but he's pretty bad defensively so I wouldn't want to acquire him as an OFer. Mancini would probably fall into #3 there, DH/1B who can hit both guys well.



So 2 relievers, a 40 FV and a 35+ FV guy for Hader. I thought Rogers was really good but he's struggled this year with the Padres.

 

[TotesTorts]

Mancini would be a decent option as well, but he's pretty bad defensively so I wouldn't want to acquire him as an OFer. Mancini would probably fall into #3 there, DH/1B who can hit both guys well.



So 2 relievers, a 40 FV and a 35+ FV guy for Hader. I thought Rogers was really good but he's struggled this year with the Padres.

.990 fielding% in RF seems good enough for depth, IMO.

 

[ImporterExporter]

The lid on the hot stove league is being completely blown off.

Cherington waiting for someone to get really desperate.

 

[xlm34]

If you can get a haul for Bednar, I’d have no problem with Cherington trading him.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I agree that moving Bednar is the right move if there is value to be had, but I also worry that he may not be a primary target for teams. The Efross trade is kind of unique, sort of like a prospect for essentially a prospect, but someone who has proven he can get MLB hitters out regularly and likely slide into important bullpen innings.

Honestly, the team that could really use Bednar is probably the Phillies...

 

[ImporterExporter]

If you can get a haul for Bednar, I’d have no problem with Cherington trading him.

Yeah, it would have to be a legit haul and be comprised of mainly AA/AAA/ML ready guys. Don't really want him moved but for a big enough return, it's a position we've had a lot of success with finding replacements for.

The internet fans will melt down though if he's dealt. I promise you that much.

 

[Gallatin]

I dont understand why anyone would purposely want to add risk to a 70/60 hitting profile. Thats star territory.

If that has a high floor why the hell would you add risk for marginal upside

Green has a shot at being a 5-tool player with 80 grade power. Some prefer the potentially higher upside, even though hos floor is pretty low.

Pirates Prospects is a source that can have good information, but its usefulness as a source of good info was always limited to me in that Tim clearly decided to present things through rose-colored lenses, whether because he thought that that's what his readers wanted or because of access or whatever. When I read about prospects I want a real, objective, and reasoned assessment, not just positive spin (and I'm really not sure why people don't want to get the real scoop - Yohe gets pummeled on the hockey board because he's so unwilling to be objective as to certain players).

And yes, Tim and his ilk defended Huntington vociferously until the end, and now he's used as an excuse for Cherington. It's a bit maddening.

Tim Williams has learned a great deal from his mistakes - today's PP is hardly recognizable. He's also a Scout for Baseball America take that for what it's worth.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Honestly, the "suite on the road" and "can purchase the 4 best seats" contract stipulation is not something I would have ever thought about in these negotiations.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Yeah, it would have to be a legit haul and be comprised of mainly AA/AAA/ML ready guys. Don't really want him moved but for a big enough return, it's a position we've had a lot of success with finding replacements for.

The internet fans will melt down though if he's dealt. I promise you that much.

I'd be elated if Bednar is dealt for the right return.

Sell high on RP. He's good but not special.

 

[MrBrightside]

Tim Williams has learned a great deal from his mistakes - today's PP is hardly recognizable. He's also a Scout for Baseball America take that for what it's worth.

He's on the editorial staff at BA as the Pirates' correspondent, not a scout. Hopefully you're correct - additional objectivity would make a better product.

 

[Gallatin]

I actually think you need to do a bit more this off-season than just cut the fat and let the young guys play. I think you need to go outside of the organization to address at least 2 of the C, DH and 1B position. Like I posted a few days ago, my ideal off-season for this year (speaking realistically) would have the Pirates signing:

1. Quintana or another fringe #3/4 starter to a multi-year deal in free agency.
2. A lefty platoon for Chavis in either the DH or 1B spot.
3. A righty DH or 1B that can hit both lefties and righties.
4. A starting C

I would honestly even be fine with giving Perez another shot at #4, I thought he was great before he got hurt. Re-signing Quintana and Perez and adding someone like Flores (#3) and Naquin (#2) in free agency would make the batting lineup look pretty decent IMO:

1. Hayes (3B)
2. Cruz (SS)
3. Reynolds (CF)
4. Suwinski (RF)
5. Flores (1B)
6. Chavis/Naquin platoon (DH)
7. Newman (2B)
8. Marcano/Mitchell/Madris (LF)
9. Perez (C)

You'll let the young guys battle it out for the LF spot and just let the hot hand play.

Pretty much how I see it if the Bucs are to approach .500 next season.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Green has a shot at being a 5-tool player with 80 grade power. Some prefer the potentially higher upside, even though hos floor is pretty low.


Tim Williams has learned a great deal from his mistakes - today's PP is hardly recognizable. He's also a Scout for Baseball America take that for what it's worth.

Sure but that upside is not just risky but highly unlikely even if he succeeds.

If were comparing right tail outcomes isnt the Boggs/Vald right tail pie in the sky outcome PLUS a high floor worth way more than the other when accounting for all the risk factors.

Maybe im just taking crazy pills

 

[DJ Spinoza]

As long as he's vaccinated, the other candidate I could see for Bednar is Toronto. Seeing some people point out that staying in front of the Mariners is strategically important for them because some of the Mariners might not be able to travel to Canada for a wild card game.

Their bullpen is also pretty bad and having a lockdown bullpen can be pretty crucial in a do-or-die game.

Just not sure they are a great match unless things get creative. Their biggest chip to deal is Moreno, as they seem to like both Jansen and Kirk a lot and he's perhaps not yet ready for showtime, much less a playoff race, so he's been back in AAA after getting a brief taste. He's also incredibly highly rated across the board and has a kind of safe, all-around profile that gives a lot of confidence. For that reason, even in an overpay, I don't see it for something like Bednar + Quintana.

 

[Gallatin]

Sure but that upside is not just risky but highly unlikely even if he succeeds.

If were comparing right tail outcomes isnt the Boggs/Vald right tail pie in the sky outcome PLUS a high floor worth way more than the other when accounting for all the risk factors.

Maybe im just taking crazy pills

Hey man, I was just passing on what a recently former Bucs development coach thought. Although I felt the same way - Termarr was my 1-B pick after Green by a slight margin.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

My sense is that some scouts may have a little bit of a bias with Johnson since he doesn't have the prototypical prep projectable frame. I also think some are really wary of high future grades on prep players, especially the hit grade, since various scouts have been burned on that before by a guy like Moniak or perhaps unfairly and still to be turned around, Kelenic.

I'm no scout for sure, but I was really liking the big swing on Green until the last moment. I wasn't confident that Johnson would fall, but I think it worked out ideally in the end. Green would have made a little more sense if the current upper minors talent was looking stronger, or if the rebuild was still in an early stage and not a TBD stage. I still think Johnson's best tool is what should win out side by side, but he has the added bonus of likely moving more quickly through the minors.

I wouldn't be surprised if he can catch up to Bubba net year with them both being in Altoona in 2024. From there, especially given how the organization has made decisions, it's not outrageous to think he could be a July/August 2025 call-up (I have the feeling Chandler will take a little longer, depending on how the two-way thing shakes out and obviously injuries from a pitching standpoint).

 

[MrBrightside]