OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

[DJ Spinoza]

As I see it, the core issue remains the lack of an apparent plan. The clearest indication we'll have in that regard is whether or not we make a serious offer to Reynolds in the winter. Extending Reynolds and thereby not putting yourself in the position to likely deal him in the winter meetings or next year, or perhaps one more cycle beyond that, will at least give some coherence to the last 12 months or so.

The front office chose to punt on 2022 and in the late season we are again seeing the consequences of continued dumpster diving culminating in a lot of 40-man roster spots and starting 26-man roster spots. It's ugly baseball, and it's worsened by a combination of prospect injuries and lack of converting upper level minors prospects overall.

I do think that development is non-linear, but outside of maybe Marcano turning a corner this year, there are legitimate questions about the short- and long-term impact under Baker.

It's being pretty clearly telegraphed that the post-deadline scenario will be about playing the kids, but I think that's still just a half-measure. At this point, the GM really needs to be looking at what he has and what he has coming in isolation, in order to make some real attempts at supplementing it. There is at least a spot or two of open playing time that wouldn't really interfere with the playing time to go around for internal players who should get it.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I'll be accepting apologies form the impatient crowd in 2 years.

That's your guys problems. The instant gratification generations of today have no chill or idea about how a complete rebuild unfolds, especially w/an owner who will not spend any real money on outside players.

This was always going to take until at least 2023. Without significant FA money spent, acting like this team should already be winning 75-80 games is an absurd take.

Like I said, if you came here to bitch and moan and tell me to give my son pot (real mature), then you're going on ignore and that's that. You can bitch to your heart's content.

I choose to look at the positives that are happening within the org, and there are many.

Have a nice night kids.

 

[since70]

I don't care about publications. The only thing that matters is on field results. I'm hoping these prospects progress enough to make the major league team interesting to watch. I'd like to be able to go back to PNC to watch baseball again.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I do think that development is non-linear, but outside of maybe Marcano turning a corner this year, there are legitimate questions about the short- and long-term impact under Baker.

Each individual's prospect development is non-linear, but if you look at it from a Bayesian perspective of conditional probability going 0/10 at turning prospects into major leaguers 4 months into this season probably means that the group isn't very good holistically and/or the idea that that this FO has some special sauce to "backfields development" looks way less likely. And seeing the hitting development at the major league level should make everyone skeptical of the unverifiable claims about how wonderful things are with the teenagers in the lower levels.

I'll be accepting apologies form the impatient crowd in 2 years.

That's your guys problems. The instant gratification generations of today have no chill or idea about how a complete rebuild unfolds, especially w/an owner who will not spend any real money on outside players.

This was always going to take until at least 2023. Without significant FA money spent, acting like this team should already be winning 75-80 games is an absurd take.

Like I said, if you came here to bitch and moan and tell me to give my son pot (real mature), then you're going on ignore and that's that. You can bitch to your heart's content.

I choose to look at the positives that are happening within the org, and there are many.

Have a nice night kids.

They could have been a .350 team in the 1st half and a .425 team in the second half. Instead it's going to be .400 and .350.

Patient, not patient, whatever. The trend line is terrible.

 

[TotesTorts]

The team will not compete until Bubba Chandler's second or third season in the majors. That's right, 2025 or 2026 at the earliest. It takes a really, really long time to not only build a talent base from near scratch, but have it coalesce at the major league level with the necessary pitching, fielding, and hitting. The added financial strain of small market baseball leaves little opportunity to push the timeline forward.

Sadly, Bryan Reynolds will have precious few seasons here on a competitive team.

 

[ChaosAgent]

The team will not compete until Bubba Chandler's second or third season in the majors. That's right, 2025 or 2026 at the earliest. It takes a really, really long time to not only build a talent base from near scratch, but have it coalesce at the major league level with the necessary pitching, fielding, and hitting. The added financial strain of small market baseball leaves little opportunity to push the timeline forward.

Sadly, Bryan Reynolds will have precious few seasons here on a competitive team.

This is maybe the reality. Not that I think Bubba is really the line of demarcation but there may not be any window with Reynolds in it. We should probably just deal him. He is pretty close to FA.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Like I said, this team will be pushing hard for a playoff berth in 2024 and making it by 2025. That's where I'm at when you look at the sheer volume of talent coming up now. A good bit of which is either already here or close.

The key is spending on a real coaching staff. Say what you want about Hurdle, when he arrived, there was at least some track record of success.

Our P is going to be a lot better once Contreras is here full time, Burrows and Priester start contributing. And if Keller can hone in on what he's doing now, you've got at least 4 guys who all have #3 or better upside for the long haul.

Lot of quality bullpen arms on the way as well. Most in AAA/AA now.

 

[sovietsanta87]

The royals had 2 good seasons since 1985 and have only been in the playoffs 2 times since 1985.
The Indians play in a crappy division and haven’t won a playoff series since 2016
Rays have the same playoff wins as the pirates

And yet the royals went to the WS both times and won it once.

Crappy division or not they went to the World Series and won three division titles. The small market brewers are currently leading the NL central and have claimed two division titles since 2018. That’s two more than the pirates since 1992.

The rays have won more playoff games than the pirates in recent memory. I only know this because they beat the Yankees and astros to get to the World Series in 2020.

Baseball’s economic system is broken. No one is arguing that. But it’s not impossible to build a winning team. Just need to spend a little money to get the right players and the right resources. Bob Nutting would rather collect a check.

 

[TotesTorts]

I say Bubba not because he's a great talent (he is) but because at that point, you would have Roansy and Priester reaching the necessary veteran stage at the top of the rotation, the infield of Hayes, Peguero, Gonzales, Davis, Endy, etc. will be well tuned, and the OF, assuming everything goes well, should be solid enough. I assume at some point the Pirates move Cruz in a mega deal for some needed help in whatever form they need.

 

[MrBrightside]

Regardless of how one views this near future, there's absolutely no reason not to be giving Marcano and Mitchell and Contreras and Suwinski and Holderman real looks the next 2 months. That's really the only thing of any interest the rest of the way - see what you have with these kids and stop dicking around with Yoshi and Gamel and VanMeter and the rest of the lot that will be somewhere else when they are actually competitive.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I say Bubba not because he's a great talent (he is) but because at that point, you would have Roansy and Priester reaching the necessary veteran stage at the top of the rotation, the infield of Hayes, Peguero, Gonzales, Davis, Endy, etc. will be well tuned, and the OF, assuming everything goes well, should be solid enough. I assume at some point the Pirates move Cruz in a mega deal for some needed help in whatever form they need.

I like these vibes but the results from all of Hayes, Peguero and Gonzales should make you nervous that they know how to develop good ML hitters.

Roansy, Priester and Burrows is a pretty good core of prospect RHPs but by no means exceptional.

I think Termarr is the guy I'm the most bullish on...easily the top ranked prospect in the system and reaches much quicker than Bubba IMO.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I'm so looking forward to buying IE a drink when they win 80 games in 2024, like it's some kind of achievement after playing .400 baseball for the 5 years in between.

Whatever. As much as I hate the Cherington slobberation we have to keep him on board. It's not like we have anything better out there and at this point may as well lean on his rep as a great identifier of lower-minors talent.
But he's not in the category of "great." He's in the category of "I don't feel like firing you and I'll give you more time."

 

[TotesTorts]

Right, in those years I think the team reaches the crescendo of the long-term build; a balanced mix of veterans, near-veterans, and young up-and-comers. All with a lot of talent.

Assuming, of course, development goes to plan. Time will tell.

 

[sovietsanta87]

The ownership group that broke the playoff drought that had payroll as high as 17 in the league and the stadium didn’t sellout enough and the brewers who were rebuilding had better attendance.
It’s amazing how the cap and floor helped save the penguins and kept Crosby Malkin Letang here there entire career but in baseball guys will make 400 billion and never win.
Baseball needs true tv revenue sharing like the nfl the dodgers 350 billion dollar tv deal makes it an unfair advantage.

So many contradictions.

It’s the fans fault for not going to enough games but the dodgers are evil because of tv revenue that allows them to have a massive payroll but the angels have a massive payroll and they suck.

By the way we tied the Yankees for 10th in % of capacity 80% in 2015 and our big offseason was to sign ryan vogelsong, trade Neil walker for Jon Neise and dump Charlie Morton for a bag of balls

 

[ImporterExporter]

I'm so looking forward to buying IE a drink when they win 80 games in 2024, like it's some kind of achievement after playing .400 baseball for the 5 years in between.

Whatever. As much as I hate the Cherington slobberation we have to keep him on board. It's not like we have anything better out there and at this point may as well lean on his rep as a great identifier of lower-minors talent.
But he's not in the category of "great." He's in the category of "I don't feel like firing you and I'll give you more time."

What did Huntington do in year 5-6 bud?

Like I said, it's year 3 of a complete teardown, w/an inept manager. Huntington's Pirates need more than half a decade to become good.

You lack any modicum of patience.

 

[ChaosAgent]

What did Huntington do in year 5-6 bud?

Like I said, it's year 3 of a complete teardown, w/an inept manager. Huntington's Pirates need more than half a decade to become good.

You lack any modicum of patience.

Huntington inherited a far worse situation.

The farm system had 3 prospects: Cutch, Walker and Steve Pearce.

That org needed a full scale tear down. This one probably did but the results should be better.

You just like to self-aggrandize about others needing patience. Small scale sociopathy.

 

[ChaosAgent]

So many contradictions.

It’s the fans fault for not going to enough games but the dodgers are evil because of tv revenue that allows them to have a massive payroll but the angels have a massive payroll and they suck.

By the way we tied the Yankees for 10th in % of capacity 80% in 2015 and our big offseason was to sign ryan vogelsong, trade Neil walker for Jon Neise and dump Charlie Morton for a bag of balls

Shows how tenuous it is to rely on prospects to be honest.

The 2016 team was supposed to tread water until Glasnow and Taillon saved the day...after 2 months with service time manipulation. Too bad Cole regressed, Cutch and Liriano fell off a cliff and Glasnow was absolutely terrible.

Dumping Morton and Pedro Alvarez turned out to be really stupid though.

 

[sovietsanta87]

For the record I don’t want the pirates blowing a ton of money on free agents in the middle of the rebuild.

I’m just simply saying if you don’t have a single right fielder or first baseman that is anywhere near major league ready, why not get a major league right fielder or first baseman? Or even a half decent bullpen arm.

We’ve blown so many games this year because of our bullpen. And we’ve stranded a small country worth of base runners. You’re telling me 50 mil payroll instead of 40 is really that big of a hardship? If we were 5-10 games under instead of 21 you wouldn’t see that as progress?

 

[TotesTorts]

Huntington lucked into Liriano and Burnett. Striking lightning in a bottle on two vets like that is unheard of and I don't believe has happened anywhere since. Without that, boost, his timeline would have looked dramatically different.

 

[sovietsanta87]

Shows how tenuous it is to rely on prospects to be honest.

The 2016 team was supposed to tread water until Glasnow and Taillon saved the day...after 2 months with service time manipulation. Too bad Cole regressed, Cutch and Liriano fell off a cliff and Glasnow was absolutely terrible.

Dumping Morton and Pedro Alvarez turned out to be really stupid though.

Our pitching philosophy helped get us 2013-15 but it shouldn’t have been a one size fits all approach. We completely screwed up Cole’s development. We helped develop morton but he was clearly maximized in Houston.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Huntington lucked into Liriano and Burnett. Striking lightning in a bottle on two vets like that is unheard of and I don't believe has happened anywhere since. Without that, boost, his timeline would have looked dramatically different.

Then lucked into Volquez, Worley and Nova.

He also lucked into Russell Martin and Francisco Cervelli.

But Kevin Kramer said his lower staff were meanies and the vibez are better in Pirate City now, therefore success.

 

[sovietsanta87]

Like I said, this team will be pushing hard for a playoff berth in 2024 and making it by 2025. That's where I'm at when you look at the sheer volume of talent coming up now. A good bit of which is either already here or close.

The key is spending on a real coaching staff. Say what you want about Hurdle, when he arrived, there was at least some track record of success.

Our P is going to be a lot better once Contreras is here full time, Burrows and Priester start contributing. And if Keller can hone in on what he's doing now, you've got at least 4 guys who all have #3 or better upside for the long haul.

Lot of quality bullpen arms on the way as well. Most in AAA/AA now.

And this is exactly what I want us to invest in. From top to bottom. The hitting coach is actively screwing up the development of key pieces. If you want to be super cheap and rebuild from time to time you have to have elite level development

 

[TotesTorts]

Martin was a three time all-star before coming to the Pirates. Not exactly "luck" in "spotting" his talent.

Volquez, Worley and Nova were one season wonders.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Martin was a three time all-star before coming to the Pirates. Not exactly "luck" in "spotting" his talent.

The Huntington scout room most certainly had an elite eye for late-game relievers. There was no luck finding guys they did from Hanrahan to Volquez... but this is all beside the point.

Worley and Nova were one season wonders.

I'm giving Cherington two more seasons. Given his obvious talent, proclivity for drafting 1st overall and ability to instill a culture from top to bottom, he should easily be able to acquire such players as Martin, Liriano and Burnett circa 2013 for $20M combined.

But seriously. He gets two more years even if this year has been hot garbage.

 

[sovietsanta87]

You guys should read Big Data Baseball to get an idea on what the pirates did you build those teams