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OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

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Could certainly be just professionalism.... but Jesus Christ, if this is where he's at, just keep him and extend him for 3 seasons to be a veteran who anchors the staff. His style of pitching, even if he regresses back from this year, should still play pretty well in PNC Park and the NL Central, which is going to be a valuable quantity of innings no matter how you slice it.

The other thing that is lingering for me is that I don't really think what happens with Quintana has any bearing on whether we will add otherwise in free agency. Quintana's pitched his way into being closer to what I'd call a "mid-level FA", i.e., someone who will be modestly paid for a few years. We are deluding ourselves if we think Nutting is going to let BC go out and sign Joe Musgrove, or even someone like Mike Clevinger on a cheaper deal or a more riskier longer deal.

And if somehow that was going to happen, whether or not we have Quintana in the fold is not going to change it. I bet a multi-year deal for him doesn't really push beyond 3/24, and even that is just taking Anderson's deal and spreading it over three seasons. A three year deal covers his age 34, 35, and 36 seasons, which is no spring chicken but hardly old by veteran SP standards. I don't really see anything in his overall numbers that's out of whack with regard to his career standards, with the exception of his HRs being down, and I think PNC Park plays in there.

I've long sounded the horn that he won't fetch a ton in a trade because his value to a team is more about a quantity of pretty good innings than a playoff weapon, but I've softened on that as he's continued to prove himself over the course of the season. Still, I remain skeptical of the possible return, and I think that there's a certain mentality that typical fans (I am not intending anyone here) have towards veteran players on garbage teams, where there is so much desperation to see the team improve via trade that you just jettison the veteran's contributions in the hopes that some desperate playoff team pays a big price.

I'd still eat crow if BC can work a trade for an actual contributing player, and the nature of this deadline in combination with Quintana's performance at least suggests that he should get a decent bit more for him than he did for Anderson, but the price has to be uncomfortably high for a team. I'm talking a backend top-100 guy like Orelvis Martinez from Toronto or a controllable starter/immediate bullpen guy like Falter from Philly+ another player who contributes soon.

Otherwise, and this for me is the kicker, I think keeping Quintana sends the right message that then needs to be followed up by extending him. The team is very bad and frustratingly doesn't necessarily look like it will get better soon. An optimistic take could point at the number of close games we've been involved in and say with a better lineup + bullpen, we convert more wins, but setting that aside, keeping Quintana would be a line in the sand that we're pushing beyond the churn and burn approach and serious about keeping the good players we have this winter while adding more.

I suppose there's a minuscule chance that you get the "best of both worlds", i.e., add value in a rental trade and then renew the relationship with Quintana in the offseason, but I'm more inclined than ever to just say that we should bag the overcomplication and make a commitment now.
 
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Well stated DJ.

My intrigue is where have the talks gone in terms of him coming back, either via extension, or re-signing in the winter. You know those 2 conclusions have been discussed.

Personally, given the financial restrictions, I'll always advocate trading aging veterans for a fair return. Obviously this doesn't mean anyone should expect a top 100 prospect or possibly even 1 in the top 10 of a team's farm system. Rather you look for someone who's in the upper minors or even already in MLB, that can potentially come in and make a difference for us moving forward, sooner, than later.

The dream scenario for me is he's traded for something like a Holderman + a dart throw, and then brought back this winter for a modest 3 year deal.

He's not going to win anything here this year (probably next either to be frank) so going to a contender is probably something that matters to him.

With that being said, it sounds like he really does like it here (I'm sure there is some level of professionalism there) and there could remain the possibility he'd be open to coming back as pitching in PNC, with lower pressures, and whether you're overly pessimistic or not, talent is on the way, so a potential wild card run isn't that far off, IMO, so long as we improve the coaching staff dramatically this winter.

I'd like him back for 2023, be it extension now, or this winter. Prefer a trade now, sign in winter, but I wouldn't be all that upset if he just stayed and re-signed.
 
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Yeah, the more I am thinking about this and looking into Quintana, the more obvious it seems to me. If you basically just write off the pandemic year and fallout last year, he's a guy who had one kinda so-so year where his walks were higher, and he was still above replacement anyways.

Especially relative to the Pirates and what they would reasonably do, I don't know that you're going to find a better opportunity than bringing him into the fold for a few more seasons. You could pay him a guarantee of 3 years, 30 million and even front load it a little bit to mitigate some "risk" for financial flexibility in year 3: something like 12, 10, 8 each year. He might get something along those lines in free agency, but with a player like him, I think certain teams more willing to pay more for a shorter deal, so maybe the comfort level plus third guaranteed year secures it for you.

He's got the perfect approach for PNC Park and even more importantly, this kind of commitment to him would demonstrate something less tangible in terms of us not just having yearly veterans who we throw at the wall to see who sticks. Giving him a prove it contract was a very smart decision, and now he's proving it and it's time to return serve. I didn't expect to shift this decisively on the question, but faced with the possibility of his final start (and I agree with what was being said yesterday, I would be surprised if we let him pitch, on the assumption we are deep in negotiations with teams), it's a lot clearer to me now.


Edit: my double post crossed paths with you @ImporterExporter but we are in lockstep on this one. I'm not against something like a trade and then re-sign this winter on principled reasons, as of course if you could broach that possibility with Quintana and he indicated that he's positive towards it, then it's definitely the best use of what's happened.

I just think it rarely happens, though also I suppose it's worth mentioning that we can still have the will to sign him in the winter no matter what. If you look back at his earlier years, he was a staple for consistency, including something that nobody really does anymore, which is regularly pitch close to 200 innings or beyond. That combined with his performance this year should have people pretty interested in him, given how scarce pitching has been, but I think if you are willing to go three guaranteed years at a pretty competitive price, you're going to have a very appealing offer. Even assuming he is a 2-3 WAR pitcher for the duration of a 3 year deal, I don't think a team risks a higher AAV than 12M or so. It's doable for us no matter how you slice it.

I will just finally add that I am fully expecting us to trade him.
 
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nypost.com

Astros interested in Nationals’ Josh Bell amid Yuli Gurriel’s struggles

Names have been exchanged, but the ask was said to be high.
nypost.com nypost.com

Heyman says in here that Quintana is "high on the Yankees list", though Castillo is their main target.

He also mentions, unrelatedly, that they are willing to move Andujar to give him an opportunity, even though they are fine to keep him for insurance. Honestly, I think Andujar would have been a guy who I'd consider an ok acquisition for Quintana a few days ago, since he can immediately step in and have an impact, especially as a RH power bat who can slot in at 1B, DH, and corner OF. But now I am less sure about that as the right kind of fit. He does have value and I think he could take off after being traded, but the Yankees clearly don't value him as much more than emergency depth, as they've just shuttled him back and forth to AAA for years rather than giving him any run at all, really.

He would be the perfect kind of return for Newman, because he lets you get Marcano and Castillo into the middle infield mix. I think best case scenario for us might be that they spend the prospect capital to get Castillo and then we align on that kind of deal which lets them move Andujar off their 40-man and gives them a possible upgrade over IKF who also balances the lineup well. Being able to dot in Benintendi plus a Newman who is dialed in would make that lineup a lot more annoying to face.
 
DJ Spinoza said:
nypost.com

Astros interested in Nationals’ Josh Bell amid Yuli Gurriel’s struggles

Names have been exchanged, but the ask was said to be high.
nypost.com nypost.com

Heyman says in here that Quintana is "high on the Yankees list", though Castillo is their main target.

He also mentions, unrelatedly, that they are willing to move Andujar to give him an opportunity, even though they are fine to keep him for insurance. Honestly, I think Andujar would have been a guy who I'd consider an ok acquisition for Quintana a few days ago, since he can immediately step in and have an impact, especially as a RH power bat who can slot in at 1B, DH, and corner OF. But now I am less sure about that as the right kind of fit. He does have value and I think he could take off after being traded, but the Yankees clearly don't value him as much more than emergency depth, as they've just shuttled him back and forth to AAA for years rather than giving him any run at all, really.

He would be the perfect kind of return for Newman, because he lets you get Marcano and Castillo into the middle infield mix. I think best case scenario for us might be that they spend the prospect capital to get Castillo and then we align on that kind of deal which lets them move Andujar off their 40-man and gives them a possible upgrade over IKF who also balances the lineup well. Being able to dot in Benintendi plus a Newman who is dialed in would make that lineup a lot more annoying to face.
Click to expand...

This is where I think sending out someone like Peguero w/Quintana might be explored to get you to Waldichuk but if not, JP Sears is exactly the type of arm you look at as a pro ready contributor. Lefty as well.
 
Definitely wouldn't be opposed to that, although I think with the Yankees, so much of it is a 40-man roster game, so Peguero doesn't necessarily help them there.

Newman for Andujar could make sense if the Yankees are actually interested in Newman, which is of course a huge if. I think it's way too much wishful thinking, but we should have the right kind of depth prospect that we can dangle to take the upgrade with Andujar. Maybe at a stretch, the Yankees would take the chance on Stratton and his underlying metrics in a deal, immediately bolstering their pen.

The other guy who I am really interested in is Dom Smith. I believe in the bat and the defense at 1B is plus. Even though he's another lefty, I'd try to see what the Mets want and get him here. I've seen rumors that the Cubs really like him, and I could see him turning it around and being a pretty productive player right away if he's given a chance to play a lot in a less stressful scenario. (Cue jokes about the stressful competition between us and the Cubs for a better chance at Dylan Crews).
 
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I'm not sure they need Gamel, but Gamel and Quintana for Sears and Schmidt is fair according to BTV. Both Sears and Schmidt seem to be rotation options that can settle in the bullpen.
 
Sears is worth a look, but I think with King out for the season, Schmidt figures pretty heavily into their plans in that kind of role. But I would say for Quintana, that's the sort of caliber I'd be shooting for in trade talks. Tell Toronto you want Orelvis Martinez, and tell the Yankees you want Schmidt, and see if either of them ponies up.

I'm still fully in line with thinking that they'll trade him, but I think what happens will be a pretty good test of Cherington. I would go as far as to say that even if he doesn't pull off re-signing him, then not trading him for a middling return would still be the right move. The bare minimum of what I'd be fine with is similar to the Vogelbach return, and really a bit more on top of it since pitching is always harder to get. It's a weird situation where he doesn't exactly have leverage in the sense that everyone expects him to move Quintana, but also he has the leverage of many suitors and not enough pitchers to go around. He should set the price high and see if anyone calls his bluff, and not really be willing to cave for too much less than the ask.
 
One thing I will say is that the Pirates process really leaves a lot to be desired. If the decision has definitively been made to trade Quintana, then there's no chance he should start tonight. Mackey seemed pretty firm in his chat just now that he would be starting no matter what.

The other looming question, which should probably be saved for later, is Reynolds. I do think there's a path where you just play out Reynolds' arbitration years and let him walk, especially now that the compensation pick is back for a qualifying offer, but this offseason it will be time to shit or get off the pot. If he will be traded eventually, then the time to do it was last summer. If we're just going to ride it out with him, then we really need to be a lot more aggressive in building the team this winter, which is also true anyways.

They have hit on some things, but overall I just don't have the impression of a firm plan just yet. It seems like a lot of flexibility, biding their time, wait and see.
 
ImporterExporter said:
I have no idea. The only way I can describe it is, it's like Hayes is intentionally trying to slice a golf ball....He looks awful to me.
Click to expand...
His swing is too long. A lot of moving parts with his arms before contact and if he’s still dealing with shoulder issues from the collision, he’s going to struggle. He’s late on everything. We use to describe that as “swinging in the pool”.
 
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Here's a handy tweet. I think it's that all of the non-playoff teams are actually in the lottery, but the chances are minuscule for teams beyond the bottom 5-6.



Here's a BA writeup: Guide To The New CBA: Draft Lottery, Expanded Playoffs And More

If I'm not misunderstanding, the lotto works by way of teams being selected for each of the top 6 spots based on these odds. So in theory, with really bad luck, you could finish with the worst record and get the 7th pick of the draft.

The other wrinkle is that teams which receive competitive balance money or pay into it cannot be in the top-6 picks for back-to-back years.

I think we have a very strong likelihood to be somewhere in that 3-5 range. I expect Washington to be the worst, and Oakland might be tough to catch, but all bets are pretty off after that. My guess right now is that the highest we'd finish out of these spots is 6th, i.e. 7.5% chance at #1.
 
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I'm actually vacillating wildly in terms of what I said earlier about questioning process and Quintana. While I don't think one start means much one way or another, him being able to step in and have another QS against an ok offensive team is probably fine.

I think there's some extent to which him randomly getting hurt would just be bad luck that you can't anticipate -- the only exception would be in terms of the advanced health metrics that teams track on their pitchers, but there's no way to know that. So I'm thinking it's probably fine, and though I still hope we go in a surprising direction and keep him, with some comments next week about wanting to reunite this winter, I think this is his final audition for as good of a package as BC will be able to find.
 
I'd be totally happy to re-sign Quintana or look to trade him for a young starter (like someone like Schmidt or Sears) and re-sign him in the off-season. I think the rotation with Contreras, Quintana, Keller, Schmidt, Brubaker and Thompson should be at least solid next year, especially if Keller can maintain the 3.50 ERA/FIP level he has had in his last 10 starts.

They need to focus on addressing the bats more than the pitching. The starters aren't amazing, but they are legitimate MLB starters who can give your team a chance to win every night. The bats are putrid at an unacceptable level. The only starter with an above average OPS this year is Reynolds and Newman (after today).

And as I say that, Newman and Allen have back to back doubles and the Pirates are up 1-0.
 
Great stuff Q. If this is your last start here, thank you sir. Hope you'll stay/come back.

This version of Newman is legit good. Someone has to be in on him (nothing special in return certainly) as a bench upgrade or even starter if he's able to maintain this sort of pace.

Good for Allen.
 
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