Empoleon8771
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I saw "including Noelvi Marte" and thought they got Soto for a second
That's an insane price to pay for Castillo, though. How many years of control does he have left?
OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win
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I saw "including Noelvi Marte" and thought they got Soto for a second
That's an insane price to pay for Castillo, though. How many years of control does he have left?
ImporterExporter
"You're a boring old man"
What a haul for the Reds!
Edit, that's a huge haul for Cincy. Boy, I know Castillo is younger and has another year of control but you figure even Q at half that return is niiiiice.
Edit, that's a huge haul for Cincy. Boy, I know Castillo is younger and has another year of control but you figure even Q at half that return is niiiiice.
ChaosAgent
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Sell it all. Bednar and Reynolds.
Do these hitters ever miss an opportunity to start an AB 0-2?
Do these hitters ever miss an opportunity to start an AB 0-2?
MrBrightside
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Pirates are going to f' up trading Quintana. You can just feel it after what the Reds got for Castillo, hopefully they don't wait until they have to take anything for him
ImporterExporter
"You're a boring old man"
The prices are going to be insane. It's a sellers market, absolutely. You can see it building.
I'm NOT in on the selling Reynolds angle unless it's for said insane package (it'd have to be at least as good as what Cincy got and that's my bluff floor. I'd want a touch more given all the factors).
Bednar, as volitile as relievers go, yeah, if you get a great offer, it's probably worth a consideration. DL Santos has real upside, we might have something w/the Holderman kid. A few other internal options coming along.
I'm NOT in on the selling Reynolds angle unless it's for said insane package (it'd have to be at least as good as what Cincy got and that's my bluff floor. I'd want a touch more given all the factors).
Bednar, as volitile as relievers go, yeah, if you get a great offer, it's probably worth a consideration. DL Santos has real upside, we might have something w/the Holderman kid. A few other internal options coming along.
ChaosAgent
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Reynolds would go for way more than Castillo. Easily.
Burn this garbage all down. Give Ben a whack at building for 2026+.
Rhys Hoskins was a passenger in a friend's Uber today, said he was a really solid individual, and told him he liked PNC a lot, and the Pirates have some good young players, but the rest is up to management, also said a career in baseball is unbelievably difficult. Building entirely through the draft is also tough just on the amount of guys that never see an inning of baseball at the major level.
The Padres city uniforms are an affront to humanity, and Blake Snell rockin' two different colored spikes
ChaosAgent
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I'm whatever about everything but we should trade for Blake Snell.
Who cares, roll the tape of the 81st ranked 17 year old in next year's draft. Forever tank baybe.
DJ Spinoza
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I saw Feinsand saying earlier that teams were basically in a holding pattern where sellers were hoping that buyers would cave to big demands given the market. Looks like the Reds really cashed in with a great haul, although Castillo is truly the main impact starter out there, and well, it's DiPoto.
If BC is going to do it, and he obviously is, then he needs to go to the mat on the return. Quintana has surely solidified his value with the consistency he's shown. The team that buys him is getting a guy who will give your playoff team a very good chance to win 12 games heading into the playoffs, and while he's probably not the first or second SP you want for the playoffs, you could do worse than this current clip in terms of a third starter to send in a series.
If BC is going to do it, and he obviously is, then he needs to go to the mat on the return. Quintana has surely solidified his value with the consistency he's shown. The team that buys him is getting a guy who will give your playoff team a very good chance to win 12 games heading into the playoffs, and while he's probably not the first or second SP you want for the playoffs, you could do worse than this current clip in terms of a third starter to send in a series.
sovietsanta87
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Did I miss something where we were supposed to be good this year? Burn what down? half the core isn’t even in the majors yet
ChaosAgent
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They weren't supposed to be good, but they were supposed to be better. Instead the whole thing's gone sideways.
Burn any pretense of having a window in the next couple years. It was based on upper minors dudes that we were oversold or maybe deluded about. They all kinda suck. Cruz has done as expected but we have no other steady contributors still here and we're nearing August. This year has been a failure.
If the real window was Solometo, Chandler, and the tank bois...omg we get another tank boi next year...here's no reason to have Reynolds and Bednar. Let's build our character through tanking and prospect-to-prospect text chains. No reason to keep Reynolds when we won't build a decent team until he's 30-31. Cutch fell off a cliff at 30.
DJ Spinoza
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Imagine having a dude who is going to hit 60 HRs and Gerrit Cole and clinging onto prospects this intensely. Montas is probably the next domino to fall, but if there were really 12 teams on Castillo, then BC should be able to pull something with real upside in a deal. I'm still preparing to be disappointed.
ChaosAgent
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I'd save my top prospect ammunition for Soto. Castillo is a very good pitcher but an ordinary very-good-pitcher. I don't see him dominating in a playoff series against great offensive talent.
People have lost their minds about him IMO and this trade could be Archer-the-sequel to the Reds benefit.
DJ Spinoza
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I don't think I'd go that far -- Castillo hasn't been able to prove anything in the playoffs yet, but he's put up a bunch of good seasons and now moves into a much friendlier pitcher's park. It's a haul for the Reds, but I think prospects need to be looked at with a whole lot more indifference than the typical view these days. Especially when you have a team that's firing on a lot of cylinders in the regular season, getting impact talent should be a priority, not hoarding prospect talent.
We'll see what happens with Q. I think the standard impression is still that he's not an impact guy, which is pretty obvious, but at this point it's hard to deny that he's more than proving he's back this year. I don't take back anything I said about just keeping him with the intent of pursuing a reunion, but the team who acquires him gets basically an ideal consistent arm heading down the stretch, and he also has experience coming out of the bullpen if you want to think ahead to how he might be used in the playoffs.
If I am Cherington, I ask Toronto for Orelvis Martinez. His stock is sliding a little bit as he's K'ing at a high clip and really aggressive, but he's also very young and in AA. If you can get him to figure it out, it's a real boom or bust profile, and the bat translates more than fine in a corner OF spot or 1B/DH. With the Yankees, as nice as pitching would be in general, I don't see them giving up the guys we'd want. The name I'm looking at is Everson Pereira, a power/speed OF with some similar K risk.
Those are guys that are pretty premium centerpieces in a return, but also not quite at the level of prospects you don't see moved. They are aiming way high, but I don't see a lot of viable options on the trade market. They are the kind of talents who could take off and become solid everyday contributors or they could see their stock go down now that they are getting their taste of the upper minors.
We'll see what happens with Q. I think the standard impression is still that he's not an impact guy, which is pretty obvious, but at this point it's hard to deny that he's more than proving he's back this year. I don't take back anything I said about just keeping him with the intent of pursuing a reunion, but the team who acquires him gets basically an ideal consistent arm heading down the stretch, and he also has experience coming out of the bullpen if you want to think ahead to how he might be used in the playoffs.
If I am Cherington, I ask Toronto for Orelvis Martinez. His stock is sliding a little bit as he's K'ing at a high clip and really aggressive, but he's also very young and in AA. If you can get him to figure it out, it's a real boom or bust profile, and the bat translates more than fine in a corner OF spot or 1B/DH. With the Yankees, as nice as pitching would be in general, I don't see them giving up the guys we'd want. The name I'm looking at is Everson Pereira, a power/speed OF with some similar K risk.
Those are guys that are pretty premium centerpieces in a return, but also not quite at the level of prospects you don't see moved. They are aiming way high, but I don't see a lot of viable options on the trade market. They are the kind of talents who could take off and become solid everyday contributors or they could see their stock go down now that they are getting their taste of the upper minors.
MrBrightside
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I really hope that I'm wrong but it feels like people are setting themselves up to be disappointed by what Quintana brings in trade. He's way more Tyler Anderson 2021 than he is Luis Castillo 2022 and I suspect the return will be closer to the former than the latter. Having said that, I do wonder if the change in postseason format will make more teams willing to go for it - it always seemed to me that it was a really risky gambit to trade any significant prospects to then have to play in a one-and-done WC game, so not only are there more playoff teams, but you have more of an opportunity if you do get in as a WC such that pitching depth will matter more.
sovietsanta87
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I agree on Reynolds for that same reason. I also wouldn’t be against dealing Bednar because relievers are highly sought after by contenders and you never know when that next pitch could be it. We traded Joel hanrahan and got mark melancon. Then hanrahan’s arm exploded.
I don’t think the window was waiting on solomento/chandler. It was about bridging to 2023-24 when we started graduating guys like Burrows, Preister, Gonzales and Davis. Unfortunately the latter two got hurt.
You can make a case that despite the awful hitting, we’re a middle of the road bullpen away from being 5-10 games under 500 instead of 20 which would qualify as an improvement.
It sucks we haven’t seen big jumps in development from the younger guys the way we did in 2011-12 but I don’t think we’re quite ready to completely demolish the plan. If anything we’ve built up quite a large base of assets to acquire major league ready guys.
DJ Spinoza
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I think that's a fair point and the names I am throwing out are definitely high end, to the point where on paper if you give them 50 FV grades, the surplus value does not match up at all.
It seems to me that Quintana has much more of a track record than Anderson did, and also that he's put together a better campaign overall this year to back it up. Anderson had a strong April but then tapered off a fair bit, and also was pretty homer prone.
That said, Quintana is not the impact player who you want to go out there and start the WC game. He's probably either a guy who you could use for multiple innings from the bullpen, or depending on the context of the series, someone to start Game 3 or something. It's hard to know how he'll be valued, because I do think he's showing that he's not just an up and down guy who can eat some innings, but instead someone who could start 11-12 more games and pretty much give you a very good shot to win them.
It's almost a shame that the Giants are collapsing and may look into selling, because he's the kind of minor pickup that could be a boost for a team like that. Regardless of how it shakes out, I think BC has to look at these guys somewhere in between, who have fairly decent upside even if it comes with some questions. Organizational depth type prospects really don't move the needle at all, to the extent that if that's the highest offer out there, then I hope we keep him unless Quintana has asked behind the scenes for a shot at the playoffs.
Even if we can't get that kind of upside prospect, then the pivot should be to immediately ready competent player, along the lines of Holderman. That's why I was kicking around Falter's name the other day -- he's a guy who obviously has a great fastball, but you could see against us that the other pieces aren't all there yet. He's depth on the Phillies, but we could see if he can take some steps forward as a LHP starter and if not, have a good LHP for the bullpen.
It seems to me that Quintana has much more of a track record than Anderson did, and also that he's put together a better campaign overall this year to back it up. Anderson had a strong April but then tapered off a fair bit, and also was pretty homer prone.
That said, Quintana is not the impact player who you want to go out there and start the WC game. He's probably either a guy who you could use for multiple innings from the bullpen, or depending on the context of the series, someone to start Game 3 or something. It's hard to know how he'll be valued, because I do think he's showing that he's not just an up and down guy who can eat some innings, but instead someone who could start 11-12 more games and pretty much give you a very good shot to win them.
It's almost a shame that the Giants are collapsing and may look into selling, because he's the kind of minor pickup that could be a boost for a team like that. Regardless of how it shakes out, I think BC has to look at these guys somewhere in between, who have fairly decent upside even if it comes with some questions. Organizational depth type prospects really don't move the needle at all, to the extent that if that's the highest offer out there, then I hope we keep him unless Quintana has asked behind the scenes for a shot at the playoffs.
Even if we can't get that kind of upside prospect, then the pivot should be to immediately ready competent player, along the lines of Holderman. That's why I was kicking around Falter's name the other day -- he's a guy who obviously has a great fastball, but you could see against us that the other pieces aren't all there yet. He's depth on the Phillies, but we could see if he can take some steps forward as a LHP starter and if not, have a good LHP for the bullpen.
Gallatin
A Banksy of Goonism
Have you peeked at quintana's splits? He does all his damage at PNC, which is a very friendly ball park for Lefties. His road numbers stink. One of the reasons I don't expect a huge haul here.
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ChaosAgent
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Do you really have confidence that the 4 guys you mentioned will be immediate impact players up here?
Look at Keller. People are high-fiving each other over his recent improvement. That's great. It took 2 years of basically unusable MLB results to get here. Say Priester comes up and does something similar. Then he won't be "good" for 3 full years from now. 2025. Reynolds will be 30.
Gonzales at this point is 50/50 to outright bust. Peguero's OPS in Altoona is inching towards .700.
Then you look at the results of the following prospects where the org, rightly, was hoping to have 2-3 breakouts at the ML Level. I'll go alphabetically.
Bae: Good results but the team would rather run out VanMeter
Castillo: The org was REALLY hoping he would pop which is why he came north. He has some good attributes but the results holistically are terrible.
Castro: I had high hopes but he looks AAAA. Having a nice July tho. Looks like he hits better from the right side which is nice.
Matt Fraizer: who cares at this point. Non prospect.
Madris: Utility Player at best
Marcano: Seems like a player, maybe, but his hard hit rates aren't good at all. Still young for level but probably Adam Frazier is his ceiling.
Martin: I had faith that he'd at least put up the current Cruz results at the ML level. I was wrong. Bust.
Mitchell: Looks bad up here, 4th OF at best. Sweet swing tho. Can't hit lefties.
Smith-Njigba: Not good and injury-prone. Can't hit lefties.
Swaggerty: I know some people here like him. IMO if he wasn't a 1st rounder no one would care. Currently an average hitter in AAA. Was absolutely terrible/overmatched up here. Looks like he can't hit ML lefties.
Suwinski: Great start then fell on face. Currently striking out every other AB in Indianapolis. Can't hit lefties.
That's before even accounting for the likes of Yajure and Omar Cruz on the pitching side. Or Mlod, another Cherington guy, plodding along with his 4.70 ERA or whatever in Altoona.
DJ Spinoza
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Yeah, his performance in PNC Park is one more reason why I think we should see the contract through and do whatever we can to convince him to sign for three years. His road starts aren't great, but the worst one is in Coors and he still tends to do things like suppress HRs this year, which combined with BBs is the biggest thing with him going forward I think.
Ultimately, he doesn't profile as an impact starter, but there are basically not that many starters out there, so it's still a question of leverage and BC's negotiating ability. The Astros might complicate matters a little bit by floating a controllable pitcher, but BC should still be able to pull down something that's a clear step above a complex league pitcher and dice throw catcher.
The thing I am looking for -- and most expecting to be disappointed in -- is aggression towards next year. Acquiring Holderman is a good start, but there should be opportunities out there with guys like Smith and to a lesser extent Andujar. I think those guys will probably go, with someone like Plesac being more of a coin flip, which could further interfere with the rental market or on the other hand be an opportunity in the winter meetings.
The frustrating thing is that even with BC's comments in mind, what we probably have to look forward to is shuffling Quintana and Gamel off for mediocre returns and then the return of some guys we've already seen. Bae now has an oblique issue, so who knows when he'll be healthy. Might finally be free of Newman just when he's one of the few watchable hitters right now (I'll probably celebrate any deal on principle and I am holding out some hope that it fits well to flip him straight up for Andujar).
Ultimately, he doesn't profile as an impact starter, but there are basically not that many starters out there, so it's still a question of leverage and BC's negotiating ability. The Astros might complicate matters a little bit by floating a controllable pitcher, but BC should still be able to pull down something that's a clear step above a complex league pitcher and dice throw catcher.
The thing I am looking for -- and most expecting to be disappointed in -- is aggression towards next year. Acquiring Holderman is a good start, but there should be opportunities out there with guys like Smith and to a lesser extent Andujar. I think those guys will probably go, with someone like Plesac being more of a coin flip, which could further interfere with the rental market or on the other hand be an opportunity in the winter meetings.
The frustrating thing is that even with BC's comments in mind, what we probably have to look forward to is shuffling Quintana and Gamel off for mediocre returns and then the return of some guys we've already seen. Bae now has an oblique issue, so who knows when he'll be healthy. Might finally be free of Newman just when he's one of the few watchable hitters right now (I'll probably celebrate any deal on principle and I am holding out some hope that it fits well to flip him straight up for Andujar).
sovietsanta87
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A lot of knee jerk in this analysis IMO. You’re judging a lot of these players off of roughly 100 at bats. Judging preister based on Keller. I’m sorry but it takes time. To your point not everyone pans out, in fact most don’t. But I’m not ready to start over yet. Especially when we’re less than two seasons removed from being the worst team in MLB with the 24th ranked farm system.
ImporterExporter
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