OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

[Gallatin]

The good news from the FCL just kept flowing this week. Owen Killington crushed it in his 1st extended outing, Lonnie White homers in his 1st game, and 6'4" (at least) SS Javier Rivas had 8 straight hits, and showed some real opposite field power.

Wilbur Miller
"Kellington: Command was surprisingly good. Spotted the FB, which had enough velocity to miss bats. Took him until his second inning to start getting the curve over. It’s tight with late break. Froze at least one guy with a change. Was ahead nearly all the time. Went 3-0 once and got a popup anyway."

Wilbur Miller
"Rivas: which is why I mentioned the glove, which is outstanding. I also don’t think the hitting is just a hot streak. The guy is 6’4″, extremely athletic, with a good arm, a lot of projection, good bat speed and so far at least pretty decent plate discipline. You have to see the defense, too. Really good."

Prospect Watch: Lonnie White Makes Season Debut, Owen Kellington Returns - Pirates Prospects

The two DSL teams are off today; they won't play again until Monday. The FCL Pirates had a 10:00am start and everybody else goes in the evening. It's an interesting lineup of pitchers, which isn't to say everything will necessarily go well: Miguel Yajure, Kyle Nicolas, Jared Jones and Joelvis...

piratesprospects.com

Pirates DVR: Lonnie White Home Run, Mason Martin Walk-Off, Liover Peguero Diving Stop - Pirates Prospects

Welcome to the Pirates Prospects daily video rundown, where we pull some of the top videos of the Pittsburgh Pirates across the internet. Daily Video Rundown Lonnie White One of the prep players the Pirates signed to over slot deals in 2021, Lonnie White got in his first bit of game action this...

piratesprospects.com

Hard to see a lot of real meaningful progress. A lot of guys that matter for the future - Hayes, Cruz, Swaggerty, Gonzales, Davis, Marcano - have either had injuries or regressed or both (or simply have disappointed). Winning 67 games instead did 61 on the backs of guys who aren’t going to be around long term isn’t real progress.

Development is non-linear. That very basic fact helps me stay even keeled in the downturns. Especially during a season like this - when so so much good news is coming out of the DSL, FCL, & Low A. IMO - they got to be doing something right in early development for so so many guys to be flashing like this. I've never seen the low minors this packed.

 

[Gallatin]

I'm still holding the line that Quintana will have value of not burning through pitcher after pitcher (including the bullpen guys), and then hopefully you can come to a mutually beneficial reunion in the offseason.

I fully expect him to be traded, and I think there's a small chance that a bidding war gets you something more than random minor leaguers or organizational depth, but this isn't really about that. We're yanking Contreras around and he's on an innings cap. Brubaker and Keller will probably surpass their career totals and have had injuries in the past.

There's a less easy to quantify value that Quintana gets for taking the ball every 5th day for 6 innings, even if the quality isn't fully there the rest of the year. I've softened just slightly but I'm going to stick with the skeptical position about the return and hope we surprise and keep him.

I wouldn't hate holding on to Quintana and resigning him, not at all. Unless a deal like Importer mentioned is out there for a couple of high-ceiling almost ready relief pitching prospects. Especially if the rosters get expanded permanently.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think the main question with Quintana might actually be what he wants to do. Given how well he seems to have been received by the pitching staff, not to mention how likely it is that we'll need his 180IP next year (even if he regresses a fair bit), I hope we have approached him about the possibility of staying here for a few more years.

But he may also have no real interest in that, and he may have interest in being moved to a team that has some chance to win a World Series this year.

Seeing some likely BS reports that the Guardians might be open to trading Plesac, although it fits with their general MO of avoiding arbitration where they can. He could be a good buy for a mid-rotation controllable starter if Cleveland would be interested in one of the OF prospects and a flier. Whether or not it's this, I think BC needs to be more active than just fielding offers and dealing whatever veterans he can. We need a proactive approach and I also hope we're in on change of scenery guys like Andujar and Dom Smith. Andujar in particular would fit pretty well as a power RH corner/DH guy.



Finally, this is a prep guy who I really liked and would have liked to see over Barco, especially with him not getting that high of a bonus. Way too early to do more than express the vaguest caution like this -- I'll be glad to eat my words if Barco gets healthy and moves pretty quickly as a #3/4 LHP which would play up in PNC, but I still look at him and say he'll become a reliever (still not a bad outcome, as the SL looks pretty devastating, but I would have liked to take another SP shot in this deep draft, so that would be a disappointing outcome).

 

[MrBrightside]

The good news from the FCL just kept flowing this week. Owen Killington crushed it in his 1st extended outing, Lonnie White homers in his 1st game, and 6'4" (at least) SS Javier Rivas had 8 straight hits, and showed some real opposite field power.

Wilbur Miller
"Kellington: Command was surprisingly good. Spotted the FB, which had enough velocity to miss bats. Took him until his second inning to start getting the curve over. It’s tight with late break. Froze at least one guy with a change. Was ahead nearly all the time. Went 3-0 once and got a popup anyway."

Wilbur Miller
"Rivas: which is why I mentioned the glove, which is outstanding. I also don’t think the hitting is just a hot streak. The guy is 6’4″, extremely athletic, with a good arm, a lot of projection, good bat speed and so far at least pretty decent plate discipline. You have to see the defense, too. Really good."

Prospect Watch: Lonnie White Makes Season Debut, Owen Kellington Returns - Pirates Prospects

The two DSL teams are off today; they won't play again until Monday. The FCL Pirates had a 10:00am start and everybody else goes in the evening. It's an interesting lineup of pitchers, which isn't to say everything will necessarily go well: Miguel Yajure, Kyle Nicolas, Jared Jones and Joelvis...

piratesprospects.com

Pirates DVR: Lonnie White Home Run, Mason Martin Walk-Off, Liover Peguero Diving Stop - Pirates Prospects

Welcome to the Pirates Prospects daily video rundown, where we pull some of the top videos of the Pittsburgh Pirates across the internet. Daily Video Rundown Lonnie White One of the prep players the Pirates signed to over slot deals in 2021, Lonnie White got in his first bit of game action this...

piratesprospects.com

Development is non-linear. That very basic fact helps me stay even keeled in the downturns. Especially during a season like this - when so so much good news is coming out of the DSL, FCL, & Low A. IMO - they got to be doing something right in early development for so so many guys to be flashing like this. I've never seen the low minors this packed.

If you want to project to 2026 and 2027, I agree with you. The low minors look exceptional and the distant future is bright. I'm just saying that it's very hard to project this team being competitive the next 2-3 years given the current roster, the upper minors, and the lack of willingness to invest in the organization. We absolutely do not give up on guys like Cruz or Mitchell or Marcano or Swaggerty or Gonzales, but with the possible exception of Cruz, none of these guys really have star potential (and I still think Cruz's ceiling is more likely Starling Marte than a true elite player), and with Hayes pretty conclusively demonstrating that he's more Joe Randa or Jordy Mercer than he is a star, it's really hard to see elite talent at the upper levels of the system, at least to an extent that they can be competitive with a low payroll.

Really, I think they are kind of straddling the middle (or low middle) with the current trajectory - they want to show improvement and be more competitive so people will say "hey they won 67 games - that's 6 more than last year!!!!" but they aren't willing to really invest in the short term and this "improvement" is on the backs of mostly guys who aren't going to be on the next competitive team. It's not really popular, but if this organization is unwilling to go out and invest in 2-3 real pieces this offseason (a SP or two, a 1B and an OF), they'd be better served by maxing out what they can get for Reynolds and Bednar and anyone else. I'd prefer the former course, but we all know that's not going to happen, so I really think they'd be better served focusing on the latter window rather than trying to win 67 games in 2022 and 74 games in 2023 and then having to trade Reynolds and Bednar right when things MIGHT start get interesting.

 

[sovietsanta87]

I think the main question with Quintana might actually be what he wants to do. Given how well he seems to have been received by the pitching staff, not to mention how likely it is that we'll need his 180IP next year (even if he regresses a fair bit), I hope we have approached him about the possibility of staying here for a few more years.

But he may also have no real interest in that, and he may have interest in being moved to a team that has some chance to win a World Series this year.

Seeing some likely BS reports that the Guardians might be open to trading Plesac, although it fits with their general MO of avoiding arbitration where they can. He could be a good buy for a mid-rotation controllable starter if Cleveland would be interested in one of the OF prospects and a flier. Whether or not it's this, I think BC needs to be more active than just fielding offers and dealing whatever veterans he can. We need a proactive approach and I also hope we're in on change of scenery guys like Andujar and Dom Smith. Andujar in particular would fit pretty well as a power RH corner/DH guy.



Finally, this is a prep guy who I really liked and would have liked to see over Barco, especially with him not getting that high of a bonus. Way too early to do more than express the vaguest caution like this -- I'll be glad to eat my words if Barco gets healthy and moves pretty quickly as a #3/4 LHP which would play up in PNC, but I still look at him and say he'll become a reliever (still not a bad outcome, as the SL looks pretty devastating, but I would have liked to take another SP shot in this deep draft, so that would be a disappointing outcome).

This was 100% the guy I wanted us to take in the second round. I think he’s going to be a stud

 

[Gallatin]

If you want to project to 2026 and 2027, I agree with you. The low minors look exceptional and the distant future is bright. I'm just saying that it's very hard to project this team being competitive the next 2-3 years given the current roster, the upper minors, and the lack of willingness to invest in the organization. We absolutely do not give up on guys like Cruz or Mitchell or Marcano or Swaggerty or Gonzales, but with the possible exception of Cruz, none of these guys really have star potential (and I still think Cruz's ceiling is more likely Starling Marte than a true elite player), and with Hayes pretty conclusively demonstrating that he's more Joe Randa or Jordy Mercer than he is a star, it's really hard to see elite talent at the upper levels of the system, at least to an extent that they can be competitive with a low payroll.

Really, I think they are kind of straddling the middle (or low middle) with the current trajectory - they want to show improvement and be more competitive so people will say "hey they won 67 games - that's 6 more than last year!!!!" but they aren't willing to really invest in the short term and this "improvement" is on the backs of mostly guys who aren't going to be on the next competitive team. It's not really popular, but if this organization is unwilling to go out and invest in 2-3 real pieces this offseason (a SP or two, a 1B and an OF), they'd be better served by maxing out what they can get for Reynolds and Bednar and anyone else. I'd prefer the former course, but we all know that's not going to happen, so I really think they'd be better served focusing on the latter window rather than trying to win 67 games in 2022 and 74 games in 2023 and then having to trade Reynolds and Bednar right when things MIGHT start get interesting.

I'm the Patience Guy.

When things come together, it will happen quick IMO. Probably 2024.

 

[sovietsanta87]

I would certainly prefer good news vs bad news in the lower levels but it’s important to keep in mind that those guys are concentrating on key aspects of their game. For example Killington having poor command of his curveball may mean he goes out there next time and is told to throw 2 curveballs for every fastball regardless of game situation.

 

[MrBrightside]

I'm the Patience Guy.

When things come together, it will happen quick IMO. Probably 2024.

I certainly hope you're right, but unless 3-5 prospects take huge steps forward and/or unless they go out and add real actual major leaguers for the rotation and corner OF/1B spots, it's hard for me to see it happening...the most likely rotation in 2024 is something like Keller, Contreras, Brubaker, one of Burrows/Bolton/Priester and some jobber reclamation SP...hard to see winning much with that. Hope I'm just beaten down and that you're right.

 

[sovietsanta87]

If you want to project to 2026 and 2027, I agree with you. The low minors look exceptional and the distant future is bright. I'm just saying that it's very hard to project this team being competitive the next 2-3 years given the current roster, the upper minors, and the lack of willingness to invest in the organization. We absolutely do not give up on guys like Cruz or Mitchell or Marcano or Swaggerty or Gonzales, but with the possible exception of Cruz, none of these guys really have star potential (and I still think Cruz's ceiling is more likely Starling Marte than a true elite player), and with Hayes pretty conclusively demonstrating that he's more Joe Randa or Jordy Mercer than he is a star, it's really hard to see elite talent at the upper levels of the system, at least to an extent that they can be competitive with a low payroll.

Really, I think they are kind of straddling the middle (or low middle) with the current trajectory - they want to show improvement and be more competitive so people will say "hey they won 67 games - that's 6 more than last year!!!!" but they aren't willing to really invest in the short term and this "improvement" is on the backs of mostly guys who aren't going to be on the next competitive team. It's not really popular, but if this organization is unwilling to go out and invest in 2-3 real pieces this offseason (a SP or two, a 1B and an OF), they'd be better served by maxing out what they can get for Reynolds and Bednar and anyone else. I'd prefer the former course, but we all know that's not going to happen, so I really think they'd be better served focusing on the latter window rather than trying to win 67 games in 2022 and 74 games in 2023 and then having to trade Reynolds and Bednar right when things MIGHT start get interesting.

Yeah. Maybe. Idk I can see 2024 featuring a decent lineup. We need a table setter which can hopefully be a guy like Gonzalez if he can ever stay healthy.

Gonzalez
Hayes
Reynolds
Cruz
Davis


That’s not a bad start to the lineup.

To your point, it also depends on what teams offer for Reynolds. If we can get an upper level prospect bat and a 2-3 type rotation guy, that can certainly fill the roster faster and move the timeline up.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Bae has the skillset of a traditional table setter, but who knows if we'll see him in August or not.

Having a solid lower minor system also bodes well for possible trade chips. One thing I have heard some positive reports on recently is Priester's stuff ticking back up. Given that we aren't going to go get a pitcher, he's probably one of the more important guys to see finish the year strong and get off to a good start next year, hopefully slotting into the rotation by late summer.

 

[Gallatin]

I would certainly prefer good news vs bad news in the lower levels but it’s important to keep in mind that those guys are concentrating on key aspects of their game. For example Killington having poor command of his curveball may mean he goes out there next time and is told to throw 2 curveballs for every fastball regardless of game situation.

Of course you are right. FCL is the primary development program that lays the foundation, can't tell anything for sure down there from performance.

And yet - many interesting prospects are flashing hard. And some have already moved up to the next level, and are continuing to flash, continuing to show great tools.

 

[Gallatin]

Thought it might continue the conversation to list the potential starters above DSL moving forward:

Mitch Keller
JT Brubaker
Zach Thompson
Roansy Contreras
Michael Burrows
Quinn Priester
Jared Jones
Kyle Nicolas
Carmen Mlodzinski
Luis Ortiz
Cody Bolton
Thomas Harrington
Hunter Barco
Po-Yu Chen
Carlos Jimenez
Anthony Solometo
Bubba Chandler
Owen Kellington

 

[Empoleon8771]

What is the progress really in, though? We thought - I guess speaking for myself but also the general consensus - that we were going to have Cruz and 1-2 other guys step up as position player regulars. IMO that hasn't happened, either on the Cruz or the "other guys" front. Maybe if Suwinski comes back.

Instead where we've actually seen progress is with the pitching staff and improved performances from Brubaker, Keller and Crowe. With generally good results from Thompson.
That's progress I guess, and it is an endorsement for Marin...but are the 4 names I mentioned above really going to lead us to anywhere?

Cruz has an OBP of .241. While the high minors prospects of Castillo, Suwinski, Mitchell, Swaggerty, Marcano, Castro and Madris have all come up here. IMO only Suwinski and Castillo earn a passing grade for their performances up here, and Suwinski was the only one worthy of excitement really. That's why it was a moment of real reflection when he was sent down. What has really been accomplished at the ML level this year?

If we're not going to get 2+ regulars from the list above, IMO there is little path to a playoff team from here until 2025. Individually it's been okay but holistically the results have not been acceptable. 2 guys shoulda popped and stayed that way.

I agree with you on Newman tho. At this point, just keep him.

I think there's a couple things that are clearly progress from the position players:

1. Suwinski established himself as a starting OFer and should be sitting in RF going forward. He's some BABIP luck (his BABIP right now is only .223) and drawing more walks away from being a great hitting OFer.
2. Cruz's defense in the majors has been phenomenal, to the point where he will definitely be able to stay at SS if he maintains this level of defense. The bat needs to come around, but he's been so good defensively that I'm very happy with what he has done in the majors so far.
3. Say what you want about Hayes' hitting, but he has stayed pretty much entirely healthy this year and is racking up WAR due to his defense. It's disappointing to see how his bat has stagnated, but he's at 3.1 bWAR and 2.3 fWAR (pace of 5.7 bWAR and 4.2 fWAR) has played in 87 of 95 games for the Pirates this year.
4. Castillo hasn't been that amazing with the Pirates this year, but I also think he deserves a shoutout for making the team out of camp and sticking with the team up to this point. His WAR is crummy but he's on pace for 20 HRs on the year while playing primarily as a SS. I'd also throw out that his WAR seems like it would be a lot better if they'd just stick with him as an infielder, his WAR seems to be hurt by him putting up horrendous defense in the OF.

You're right that the pitching staff has had more positives than the position players, but I think we've had some clear positives with the position players as well. You should be sitting well with Reynolds, Hayes, Cruz and Suwinski as your main position players next year, while hopefully adding another strong hitter or two from the Davis, Gonzalez, Marcano, Madris, Peguero and such group.

 

[MrBrightside]

I think there's a couple things that are clearly progress from the position players:

1. Suwinski established himself as a starting OFer and should be sitting in RF going forward. He's some BABIP luck (his BABIP right now is only .223) and drawing more walks away from being a great hitting OFer.
2. Cruz's defense in the majors has been phenomenal, to the point where he will definitely be able to stay at SS if he maintains this level of defense. The bat needs to come around, but he's been so good defensively that I'm very happy with what he has done in the majors so far.
3. Say what you want about Hayes' hitting, but he has stayed pretty much entirely healthy this year and is racking up WAR due to his defense. It's disappointing to see how his bat has stagnated, but he's at 3.1 bWAR and 2.3 fWAR (pace of 5.7 bWAR and 4.2 fWAR) has played in 87 of 95 games for the Pirates this year.
4. Castillo hasn't been that amazing with the Pirates this year, but I also think he deserves a shoutout for making the team out of camp and sticking with the team up to this point. His WAR is crummy but he's on pace for 20 HRs on the year while playing primarily as a SS. I'd also throw out that his WAR seems like it would be a lot better if they'd just stick with him as an infielder, his WAR seems to be hurt by him putting up horrendous defense in the OF.

You're right that the pitching staff has had more positives than the position players, but I think we've had some clear positives with the position players as well. You should be sitting well with Reynolds, Hayes, Cruz and Suwinski as your main position players next year, while hopefully adding another strong hitter or two from the Davis, Gonzalez, Marcano, Madris, Peguero and such group.

Suwinski has absolutely not established himself as an everyday MLB player. And WAR is an evaluative tool, not an end unto itself.

 

[ChaosAgent]

+/- 2.5 hits today?

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Good lord what an AB from Cruz and an absolute tank. Against maybe the best pitcher in baseball.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Cruz just molested that ball, good god

Quintana seems like a really cool guy, I'd be happy to see him retained if he would re-sign.

 

[MrBrightside]

The Marlins’ lineup is trash but Keller is pitching really well.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Keller is getting really respectable up there. Love to see it.

If we somehow win vs. Alcantara it's a bonus, but in no way expected. Guy is 1, 1A with DeGrom for best in baseball...and I'd give it to Sandy as he doesn't have Pandora's Box of health issues.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

 

[ChaosAgent]

Hayes is what he is offensively. Which is fine and all as a glove-first 3B.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Legitimately I thought Gamel hit a homer off the bat and I still don't understand why it wasn't. Even on replay it looked like he caught it perfect. Maybe he reduced his swing speed to make contact.

 

[Gallatin]

I see a lot of similarities between Keller and Priester.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Could be nothing, but Bae got pulled early in the Indy game and it doesn't sound like he's hurt.

Honestly, say what you will about holding out until the deadline for Gamel, Newman, but there's no real reason to give Yoshi any run at this point. He can't hit MLB pitching. We gave him a crack after his injury and he's done nothing, it's time to turn the page.

 

[sovietsanta87]

If Ben gamel isnt interested in hitting just tell the team so they can cut him