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OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

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Seems like a really nice haul for Vogelbach. Holderman is a legit arm in the bullpen it seems and it has a ton of years of control left.



Holderman is a 40+ FV prospect according to Fangraphs, he's rated 10th in the Mets system (but the Mets system is horrendous). Here's his write-up:

Holderman began his college career at Southern Illinois, then transferred to Heartland and was about to kick back to Mississippi State when the Mets attracted him to pro ball with a $400,000 bonus. Here we have a case of nominative determinism, as Holderman has the stuff to pitch high-leverage innings. He experienced a four-and-a-half tick bump to his fastball velocity between 2019 and ’21, moving from the 90-92 mph range to 94-96, and that trend has continued into 2022, as he’s added another tick. Though he’s worked with four pitches in the past (he was throwing more changeups and what looked like a curveball as recently as the 2021 Fall League), Holderman’s sinker/slider combination carries him. Per Synergy, his fastball is generating a 68% groundball rate at Triple-A, and its sink and tail sets up hitters to swing inside his slider. He projects as the third banana in a contending team’s bullpen.
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That last part says to me he projects to be a 7th inning guy on a great team or a setup guy/closer on a lesser team, which seems like a great piece. Holderman as the setup guy and Bednar as the closer seems like a great setup to have, assuming they don't trade Bednar.
 
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The Pirates also announced that they've officially signed Harrington, Barco and Brannigan in the last hour.

ImporterExporter said:
We need bullpen help no doubt. I like it wasn't some A ball long shot. This cat seems like he might be very helpful in the last few innings of games.
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Him and Bednar as a setup/closer duo for the next 5 years looks awesome to me, but I'm concerned that they're going to trade Bednar.

The idea of trading Bednar is extremely complicated for me. On one hand, he'd have downright enormous value as an all-star closer who is under team control until 2027. On the other hand, him being under team control until 2027 is exactly why the Pirates shouldn't trade him and I think the team would face some extreme backlash from fans if they traded him.
 
The one aspect I've not seemed mentioned about the Vogel trade is it seems to indicate Cherington won't be waiting until the last moment to move guys. More guys are getting moved over the next few days I think.
 
Caught the Phillies game in person tonight, so just catching up. I was against moving Vogey, but pleasantly surprised it's for immediate contribution at a position of need. Hard to argue with it in that sense, and definitely more appealing than a low minors dart throw.

I expect pretty much anyone who can be traded will be traded. The question is probably whether or not Cherington would bite the bullet and move Bednar if he got the right offer.
 
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I like the Vogey trade the more I've sat with it. It helps that Mets fans seem to be pretty miffed that they moved Holderman, and that he can pretty perfectly slide into a higher leverage role here to gain some experience for future years. I think he's pre-arb through 2025, so that's a pretty good value for a leverage guy.

The one wrinkle that I'm still less sure about is that it has to be the first shoe to drop in a number of deals, and so we'll see what happens with those. Obviously, I think for basically any veteran except maybe Quintana, you just take whatever is on offer (I exclude Quintana because the watchability of losing him vs. losing Marisnik, Gamel, or Newman is significantly different, but now that Vogey has been moved, I think it's a certainty Quintana actually will as well).

I was warming to the idea of a Bednar trade and still might not be totally against it, even though it would be unpopular. This trade makes it seem more like we could cut an extension with the hometown closer, thereby stabilizing the pen for the next few years at least. When you look at the pen now, you at least see some upside with Yerry as a fireman and Crowe, Holderman, and Bednar as leverage options. You can easily extend Bednar and if you have good health, you bullpen has a much better shot of consistently converting most leads into wins, which I think is still one of the best ways for a middling team to punch above its weight.

It also might be feasible to ultimately move a guy like Crowe or Beede for the right return next season, or something like that. I'm of two minds about the possibility of extending Bednar. On the one hand, even at a decent discount, it's still a fairly risky move because RPs flame out and get hurt. On the other hand, it would be an even firmer sense of a commitment to 2023, and so in that sense I think it might be better not to laser focus on the "risks" of paying relievers. If there were other moves around it, I'd certainly welcome it, but I won't hold my breath.

Ultimately, I still think the cold approach of cashing in might be the best route here. If you can turn him into an everyday player with some upside, a good prospect, and a third prospect or player, I think you might have to pull the trigger, but we'll see what ends up being out there.
 
IMO Holderman's acquisition makes it more palatable to move Bednar. Which the more I think about it, given that the timeline keeps getting pushed out and the inherent volatility of relievers...is probably the right move.
 
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Holderman being sent to AAA is odd.

This acquisition should mean nothing one way or the other as to Bednar. Anyone who looks at a RP who was a NRI this spring and has pitched 17 MLB innings and makes any decisions about the roster based upon adding him is grossly optimistic.
 
I don't think him being a NRI to spring training is that relevant to anything about him, but of course, what to do or not do with Bednar is a separate question.

I tend to think that with Bednar it's a question of how much a team would pony up. There have been hauls for relievers before, but teams are increasingly protective of their prospects and though Bednar's pitches grade out very well, he doesn't have a huge track record. It might be a case where no team would headline the deal with the kind of prospect who would project to fill an everyday role. If that's the case, then I think you just pack it in and either extend him on a team friendly deal, or at least keep playing it out through his control years further. It's cliche, but he'll still have similar value next summer.

Holderman going to AAA is probably because we don't want to option someone from the bullpen and then not be able to get them back after the deadline for a little while (that said, if they were optioned today, it would only be a week or so after the deadline to get them back). Likely it's just as a placeholder type thing before Stratton or others are moved, but who knows. A very quick glance at his game log suggests that he could miss the super two cutoff if he's not on the MLB roster for another couple of weeks (which = pre-arb salary for longer).
 
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The relevance of him being an NRI is that he’s 26 and as recently as this winter wasn’t even placed on the 40-man roster by the Mets. He’s thrown 17 quality innings this season and I like the trade fine and hope he turns into Mariano Rivera…but the reality is that you don’t make decisions about your most valuable trade piece (outside Reynolds) based upon the acquisition of a guy who has thrown 17 good innings but wasn’t deemed worthy of a spot on a 40-man roster as recently as March. I’m fine with trading Bednar. Relievers are generally volatile and fungible and if someone will overpay, I have no issue with a trade. But Holderman has no bearing on it one way or the other.

And sorry, he should be here now. There is so much dead weight on this roster that he’s not the one who should be going to AAA.
 
MrBrightside said:
Holderman being sent to AAA is odd.

This acquisition should mean nothing one way or the other as to Bednar. Anyone who looks at a RP who was a NRI this spring and has pitched 17 MLB innings and makes any decisions about the roster based upon adding him is grossly optimistic.
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I mean that the FO will be able to bring him up to close games, call him a shiny new toy and maybe sell that to the fans who will be POd about Bednar.

Substantively, yes. There's no reason you can't have both Holderman and Bednar.
 
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I think they are separate issues, but Holderman being a NRI is trivia. The relevant points about relievers are the quality of their pitches, their command, and their health, which can fluctuate significantly between seasons. Holderman obviously has plus pitches and can help out the current team as much as or more than any non-Bednar reliever.

Hopefully he's just in AAA because we anticipate making room for him in the next few days by way of a Stratton trade. It'd be pretty pathetic if we're also gaming his super two status in the way that we are for Roansy (especially because he's a 26 year old reliever), but I wouldn't put it past us.

I think the reason to trade Bednar starts and ends with some team being willing to give up a more or less MLB ready talent who will fill an everyday position. That would be more important than a closer, but any other kind of quantity over quality move would be a step back for 2023. Honestly, I'd be surprised if he was dealt.
 
I think my major issue with trading Bednar is that I don't see a big enough roster issue on the team to justify trading him outside of starting pitching, but you're probably not getting a good starter option for him.

You could get a really nice young MLBer for him, like when the Cubs got Madrigal for Kimbrel. But I just don't see any position as being a big enough need to justify doing Bednar for a player like that unless it's a starter. They should have most of their roster positions for the near future sorted out. The only roster holes I see are with 1B and C, but C is only a hole until Davis comes up and 1B isn't an important enough position to trade someone like Bednar for.
 
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