Now that we are on the other side of the draft and the ASB, I'd like to revisit this series of posts and what the Pirates should be doing in the second half of the season.
Initially, with regard to Delay, it's absolutely ridiculous to suggest he should be the catcher the rest of this year and next year. His collective minor league OPS in 2021 and 2022 is .532, and 31 not terrible MLB AB's doesn't erase 6 years of ineptitude. Hell, it would be one thing if he was great defensively, but he's throwing out 22% of base stealers and has 2 errors in 12 games. And yeah what was Stallings doing at 27? Oh, he was posting a .789 OPS at AAA with excellent defense. So what was the point of that comparison again?
The bigger issue is that the next 2.5 months have to start being auditions to sort out the prospects and any AB given to Newman or Marisnick or Yoshi or VanMeter is a waste of time. Nothing any of those guys is going to do over the next 12 days is going to make a team decide to throw a real prospect at the Pirates to acquire at the deadline, and the only thing this organization should care about doing for the rest of the season is getting a good look at guys like Marcano and Swaggerty and Suwinski and Bae and Mitchell to see what we have what we don't. At some point they have to make decisions as to who is part of the future and who isn't, and that's a lot more easily accomplished giving the kids a chance than it is watching Josh VanMeter 5x a week.
Who else is going to C over Daley that has shown any legitimate ability? Perez? Career game was great, but he's a horrendous bat, solid defensively. Next. Heineman? Can't hit, solid defensively. Next.
There is nobody else. Maybe you give Carter Bins a look later in the year, I'd be fine w/that. But so far, Daley has hit the ball, very well, and not sucked defensively. Nobody is saying he's the locked in guy into next year (yet) based on 30+ AB's but he's the only guy I've watched this year that looks like he knows what he's doing at the dish. And neither Perez or Heineman are so much better defensively that it makes up for their non existent offense, which if you haven't been paying attention, sucks. So I want a C that can hit. Let Daley continue to hit until he doesn't.
But again, there is nobody else to be the main guy the last 2.5 months. Best player wins. It's a crap shoot until Perez is healthy/back (no guarantee) or Davis shows up, which given his injury woes almost certainly won't be until 2024 now.
Let Newman play until the trade deadline. One, he's performing, which serves 2 purposes. It helps the team, A, and B, it at least gets teams looking and plenty can use a MI, who plays great D, runs well, and this year, is hitting the ball well. One way or another, he's gone or benched in favor of Marcano/Bae in August/September. And if he does stay, and is playing every day over those guys, then f*** Shelton and to a lesser extent, Cherington, as he could push the buttons if needed.
This is why I support trading Quintana and revisiting him in the winter during FA. His value is going to be solid. Obviously less than Musgrove but his price tag and lefty status helps the cause. We're not going to win anything. We all know that. But you took a gamble on a guy for dirt cheap and are now in position to get at least 2-3 dart throws, for a few months of work.
I don't understand why some people don't see/consider this approach. Short of having a much larger payroll there is no way to do it otherwise.
These half baked notions of signing guys to long term extensions are 99% fantasy, Until Nutting proves he's going to A, spend on his own guys (more than one) and two, outside players, we have to operate as if we're pinching pennies and must squeeze every bit of value and potential as possible out of players who can't help us win this year.
Plus, in this case, if Quintana had a good experience, and I'd wager it's been pretty good given the turnaround (plus PNC isn't a bad park to pitch in) he's certainly in play this winter. So, IF, Nutting starts to do what he did about 10-11 years ago, and opens the purse strings a bit, then you can say, Jose, what about 3/45? We want you to be an inning eater veteran on the front end of a winning window. That is, if we're given permission to spend money.
Worst case, he signs for more money elsewhere but we still got value beyond his being here, and the system absolutely needs more P prospects, even post draft.
Obviously the shocker would be spending on someone like Musgrove, but that's a locked in pipe dream IMHO.
Regardless, the players that you should absolutely move given their value being about as high as it would get moving forward:
1. Quintana - Maybe you get someone just inside a team's top 10, but I'd wager it'll be something more like a 12-15 ranked guy and then a pair of 20-30ish types. Given how much the system has been built up the last 2 years, I'd personally rather take 1 top 10 player straight up and gamble on the upside, especially if the prospect is having a strong year vs the much lower ranked dart throws, which do eat up system space.
2. Newman - Given the glut of MI/OF prospects we have, the space is needed. Newman, even if he settles down into a mid 600 OPS guy the rest of the year, still gives contenders a very reliable bench option, who can run, and defend really well. Return won't be much. 2 dart throws outside the top 20.
3. VanMeeter/Marisnick/Yoshi/Gamel - Get whatever you can for them. Even if it's just international bonus money. Otherwise DFA them. Gamel should get you something at least. I'd be shocked if Yoshi brought anything. We need to get Sunwinski back up down the line. You have Mitchell, Bae, Marcano, Castillo. Reynolds could be coming back, we'll see. The OF should be youngster from August onward.
Guys you definitely listen on:
1. Vogel - Dude is mashing righties and given every team has a DH, some contender will need a fat guy who can mash right handed P. Cheap, can be brought back again cheap next year. I would like to see him stay as one of the few vets for reasons DJ mentioned. However, if you get a stronger than expected offer, it's understandable to move him.
2. Bednar - Doubt he's moved, but again if the offer is really good, you have to consider it. I don't want to see him moved. I think he was overworked and really struggling to maintain his form the last few weeks/moth. Give the guy an easy pace out of the break. Let DL Santos get some looks, he's not been used terribly much yet.
I don't move Reynolds and I'll be shocked if he is, especially now that he's hurt and Soto in the mix.
Get what you can for the upper portion of the list and then let the young guns get reps every day moving forward.
I'm not a big fan of bringing in guys from outside the org. who have been struggling heavily and will only get in the way of our existing prospects. Dom Smith makes some sense since we really don't have any 1B prospects, but a guy like Andujar? No thanks. Hasn't done anything since 2018 and that's a loooong time in between good-bad. He'd just get in the way of guys we already have who need looks, and present as much, if not more upside anway, IMO.
