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OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

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Agreed. It seems like they're drafting really high character people. Johnson comes off like someone you'd absolutely want in your life as a friend.

Need to keep Davis and Gonzo healthy once they get back on the field. We can't afford to have both of them bust out, not that I'm of that mindset at all. But the injuries are definitely a concern at present.
 
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With Day 2 in the books, we have a pretty clear idea that things really center around Johnson. I don't have anything to base this on other than speculation, but something I haven't seen get talked about too much is that we may have had to play our own game of leverage with the slot pool in order to get the player we liked. We'll never know if the Orioles were on Holliday all the way, but it certainly seemed like they didn't even know who they were going with until immediately before the pick, so I wonder if some of our strategy involved waiting until the end in order to make sure we had the right number to get Johnson to fall to us.

What I had kept seeing was that Elias really liked Jones and Johnson, but maybe he didn't like the latter quite as much if there wasn't much more than a 1M shave possible with him. If you are the Pirates, you know that you won't get Jones or Holliday, but maybe your board had Johnson as the clear #3. A late guarantee that he'd get full slot would make sure the Orioles didn't take him.

Setting that speculation aside, it seems like an ok draft class so far. Loads of college pitching and two prep pitchers, along with a couple OFs and the intriguing two-way guy. I like Harrington, and the other prep LHP Kennedy also seems like a good snag. The college guys seem like a lot of dart throws with some reliever projection built in, which is never too exciting but obviously we need it. I like leaning college and now the question is if we can convert a couple of them into viable options.

Having Brennigan be announced as a two-way player is definitely exciting, and I wonder how we'll navigate that in terms of his level placement. In the end, I think if we can grab a toolsy prep guy for an overslot in the 11th round, that might round out the class a little more. From a quick glance, there are a number of options, so we'll see. I don't really love the Barco pick over Prielipp, but I'm happy enough with Johnson to just sit back and wait and see.
 
ImporterExporter said:
Agreed. It seems like they're drafting really high character people. Johnson comes off like someone you'd absolutely want in your life as a friend.

Need to keep Davis and Gonzo healthy once they get back on the field. We can't afford to have both of them bust out, not that I'm of that mindset at all. But the injuries are definitely a concern at present.
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Injuries sure have gotten scary with these ones. Hank needs to move to 1st IMO, and Nick needs to figure out how to identify sliders. Either way, we're now looking at 24 instead of 23 with these two IMO.
 
If you glance at the Day 3 lists, there are a decent number of high school guys out there, and it seems like these picks often can come down to how much the player wants to turn pro. The slot value is either 100-125K for these rounds, which means anything more than that has to come out of the bonus pool.

It still sort of feels like we have some flexibility, so my expectation is that we're going to at least try for one of the names you can see floating around out there. There is also the Miami closer, who has a great fastball and no breaking ball, and a 6'7" Juco development project pitcher.

There's another Clemson QB commit out there, who Pipeline says is more athletic than Chandler but less explosive stuff and stronger football commitment. Would be nice to snipe them again, but the one guy who stands out a little bit to me is OF Gavin Turley, who has lots of tools but swing and miss concerns. He doesn't sound too dissimilar to Braylon Bishop, our 11th round pick last year, and early rumblings about him sound good.

Hard to believe that we're just 2 weeks away from the trade deadline.
 
DJ Spinoza said:
Hard to believe that we're just 2 weeks away from the trade deadline.
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Excitement or dread, I'm not sure.

I increasingly believe that Reynolds and Bednar SHOULD be traded since the timeline has now apparently pushed out 1-2 years as the upper minors hitters have disappointed the organization.
Don't really see any path to a playoff team in 2023.

But I think we hang onto both. Bednar in large part because he's from here.

If we're 3 years away, Quintana should definitely go. Vogelbach will go as will Gamel. I have mixed feelings on Newman as he's hit better this year. I lean towards keeping him. Just dump JVM and Yoshi already.

Chavis will attract interest due to his defense and ability to hit lefties. I've really liked him this year but I probably let him go as well.
 
I'm still fully on board with the idea that if we get any kind of decent offer for Bednar, you pull the trigger and take the PR hit.

Reynolds is more complicated and would be a far more significant blow. With the oblique injury, and now Soto probably on the market, I have to think we'll just hold off. I wouldn't expect us to bite the bullet on Bednar, but in some sense it might be a test of how committed to his own process BC is.

I would also assume that Bednar's recent blip might make some teams worried about the arm, but I guess he's also not lost any velocity or other red flags like that.
 
DJ Spinoza said:
I'm still fully on board with the idea that if we get any kind of decent offer for Bednar, you pull the trigger and take the PR hit.

Reynolds is more complicated and would be a far more significant blow. With the oblique injury, and now Soto probably on the market, I have to think we'll just hold off. I wouldn't expect us to bite the bullet on Bednar, but in some sense it might be a test of how committed to his own process BC is.

I would also assume that Bednar's recent blip might make some teams worried about the arm, but I guess he's also not lost any velocity or other red flags like that.
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I get weirdly into the idea that Reynolds may be a nice consolation prize for Soto.

Like for the Yankees, if you have already offered Volpe as part of a package for Soto...you have in some way parted ways with him mentally already.

Just food for thought. It's all moot if Reynolds' oblique doesn't heal.
 
DJ Spinoza said:
I'm still fully on board with the idea that if we get any kind of decent offer for Bednar, you pull the trigger and take the PR hit.

Reynolds is more complicated and would be a far more significant blow. With the oblique injury, and now Soto probably on the market, I have to think we'll just hold off. I wouldn't expect us to bite the bullet on Bednar, but in some sense it might be a test of how committed to his own process BC is.

I would also assume that Bednar's recent blip might make some teams worried about the arm, but I guess he's also not lost any velocity or other red flags like that.
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No one is trading for Soto until the winter since it will blow up there farm system. Teams didn’t want pay ask for Reynolds to begin the season they aren’t going to pay it now.

DocEmrickSkitters said:
I get weirdly into the idea that Reynolds may be a nice consolation prize for Soto.

Like for the Yankees, if you have already offered Volpe as part of a package for Soto...you have in some way parted ways with him mentally already.

Just food for thought. It's all moot if Reynolds' oblique doesn't heal.
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The Yankees will see if they are going to sign Judge before they get into the Soto sweepstakes
 
The current best hitter in baseball likes what he sees from Cruz, fwiw:

That’s where the Judge comp is worth considering. Judge, 30, made his MLB debut in 2016 and produced worse numbers: a .179 average, .608 OPS and 42 strikeouts in his first 95 plate appearances spread over 27 games that year. Judge was 24 and really didn’t become the guy we see now until 2017, when he hit a career-high 52 homers and finished second in AL MVP balloting.
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Empoleon8771 said:
I don't think the Judge comparison really works without including the context of the Yankees completely reworking his swing after his dreadful start in the majors.
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Did you read the article? The comp is more or less that both are tall yet athletic sluggers who play defense far better than is expected out of a tall power hitter.

And for that matter, Cruz's swing isn't a problem when his mechanics are sound, as he produces the exit velos and launch angle that you want when he hits the ball square.
 
Empoleon8771 said:
I don't think the Judge comparison really works without including the context of the Yankees completely reworking his swing after his dreadful start in the majors.
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Judge's swing is perfect. Like his spine angle never deviates. It's just a matter on if he knows where the pitch is going, because there is going to be no variation on where his bat is vs. where he expects it.

bigdaddyk88 said:
No one is trading for Soto until the winter since it will blow up there farm system. Teams didn’t want pay ask for Reynolds to begin the season they aren’t going to pay it now.
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I think if a team takes on the Corbin contract it would cut the acquisition cost in half.
 
What worries me about any Reynolds trade is how significantly it will undercut the chance of the MLB team improving in the near future. I think you can make a rose colored glasses argument that there are still signs pointing up in the near future with Reynolds -- i.e., a significant leap next year with the right investments and good luck, and true promise for 2024, but if Reynolds is traded, I think that timeline possibly jumps two years further, which might be BC's plan in any case.

I just think it's difficult to overstate how much worse we are without him in the lineup. There's still a path to a decent lineup by 2024 without him, but it involves a huge amount of what if.

If we're not going to try and extend him, I think the better call might be to just ride out his team control years and offer him a qualifying offer if that somehow gets put back in, or just take the hit/shop as a rental if not. I don't see a team ponying up what it would take and even then, if he's having a great year during his final team control season, he might be worth quite a bit for a rental. My sense is that total team control years are more important for a pitcher than a batter in a trade.
 
Why would the Nationals dump Corbin with Soto his contract has 2 years left on it not the 3 price had when he was included in the betts trade. It’s 60 million in sunk cost they already are stuck eating 140 million on Strasbourg deal over the next 4 years with deferred money. Cruz is the only other payroll guy for next year at 16 million since they will trade bell and his 10 million Aav at the deadline. In 24 it’s 35 for Corbin in his final year and 35 for strasburg unless a team is going to help pay max Stephen deferred salary just eat the Corbin deal
 
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I think they will revisit the extension talks with Reynolds this winter and see if they can get him to commit at a price tag they are comfortable with I thought he would have a Springer type of contract for him in free agency but maybe not
 
ImporterExporter said:
We're loading up on left handed P this draft. All dart throws but it's nice to see this GM address org. depth issues.
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Yeah, I like the LHP approach, and pretty clear that we're going the college route with the idea to probably get these guys into the system and see if any can move through in the next two or three years to help the pen from within. Not a bad approach to take given the overall depth of the system, and we dotted a couple of developmental projects, especially Harrington.

Still not sure I'm sold on Barco, but also speaks to how unusual what we were able to do last year was. He has at least some intrigue and even if you convert him to a reliever with a nasty slider, that's not a terrible result. I would have liked to see us take another prep P there instead, but just have to wait and see. Everything after Johnson is still gravy to me.
 
bigdaddyk88 said:
Why would the Nationals dump Corbin with Soto his contract has 2 years left on it not the 3 price had when he was included in the betts trade. It’s 60 million in sunk cost they already are stuck eating 140 million on Strasbourg deal over the next 4 years with deferred money. Cruz is the only other payroll guy for next year at 16 million since they will trade bell and his 10 million Aav at the deadline. In 24 it’s 35 for Corbin in his final year and 35 for strasburg unless a team is going to help pay max Stephen deferred salary just eat the Corbin deal
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Why wouldn't they want to dump Corbin's contract? What owner enjoys paying that? I'm saying realistically, a willingness to take on Strasburg or Corbin's contracts would reduce the acquisition cost for Soto. This shouldn't even be a debate
 
DJ Spinoza said:
What worries me about any Reynolds trade is how significantly it will undercut the chance of the MLB team improving in the near future. I think you can make a rose colored glasses argument that there are still signs pointing up in the near future with Reynolds -- i.e., a significant leap next year with the right investments and good luck, and true promise for 2024, but if Reynolds is traded, I think that timeline possibly jumps two years further, which might be BC's plan in any case.

I just think it's difficult to overstate how much worse we are without him in the lineup. There's still a path to a decent lineup by 2024 without him, but it involves a huge amount of what if.

If we're not going to try and extend him, I think the better call might be to just ride out his team control years and offer him a qualifying offer if that somehow gets put back in, or just take the hit/shop as a rental if not. I don't see a team ponying up what it would take and even then, if he's having a great year during his final team control season, he might be worth quite a bit for a rental. My sense is that total team control years are more important for a pitcher than a batter in a trade.
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I guess you could simply ride him out through his years of control. If we aren't contending until 2025-2026, he will be almost 30 by then. I have no faith in a competitive team next year at this point.
 
DocEmrickSkitters said:
Why wouldn't they want to dump Corbin's contract? What owner enjoys paying that? I'm saying realistically, a willingness to take on Strasburg or Corbin's contracts would reduce the acquisition cost for Soto. This shouldn't even be a debate
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I'm sure they would want to dump it in theory, but Soto is also so valuable that they could quite rightly demand the top 3 or 4 prospects in a good system for him and a team should probably give them up.

The Nats are really in a bad situation and sort of have been since they moved Turner and Scherzer last year. We shouldn't forget that they did manage to win it all, but I don't exactly see a linear path to rebuilding. They should probably just focus on making Soto a National for life, but they still have some real constraints that will make it difficult for them to contend.

I think a Soto trade wouldn't necessarily correlate with typical surplus value calculation just because there's basically no precedent for trading him. If you were an acquiring team in a big market who had the ability to just make him your franchise player for life, you just do it and figure out how to restock your system later IMO.
 
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