OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

[Gallatin]

That was a good set of opinions and takes. But everything can be spun. None of them spoke on the record. And if you don't recognize that A) an equivalent website of Pirates Prospects could exist for most franchises and B) that you, as a lover of all things process, would similarly fall all over a Royalsprospects or Oriolesprospects or giantsprospects or whatever, you have an inflated opinion of yourself.

I hope you recognize that process is wonderful that all the things on process don't mean anything at the end of the day if they don't produce results. And at every level that has been lacking.

BC inherited a much better state of things than his predecessor too. Literally a farm system with 3 prospects in Cutch, Walker and Steve Pearce

OK. Clearly we can't agree to disagree. Your insistence on assigning origins to my opinions in such a way that you can now denigrate them, and call me a useless loser, is quite clear.

I'm ending this conversation. And I'm putting you on ignore for a while, I suggest you do the same for me.

Such childish behavior is beneath you.

 

[ChaosAgent]

OK. Clearly we can't agree to disagree. Your insistence on assigning origins to my opinions in such a way that you can now denigrate them, and call me a useless loser, is quite clear.

I'm ending this conversation. And I'm putting you on ignore for a while, I suggest you do the same for me.

Such childish behavior is beneath you. Go feel embarrassed alone.

Calling me impatient and whining about millennial opinions and such is just as personal, but with a smiling veneer.

You're not a useless loser. You are clearly successful. But you are missing the forest through the trees. That is that like 10 teams are tanking just like we are, and in the same timeline. And the big market teams will always be there as well. We arent special and our process isn't special. Or if it at some point it needs to bear fruit, at any level. And no disgruntled former coach/exec or Tim Williams (laughable as he stanned hard for the last regime too, but I guess he "changed his ways") loling about how things are SO MUCH BETTER NOW is going to change my mind until I see more success anywhere.

I wasn't planning on writing off all the upper minors talent in order to give BC an extra 3 year grace period either.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Good start to the Altoona game for Priester. Getting chases and overall throwing strikes.

Curious to see how Burrows does in the futures game, but going to rely on clips since MLB has it locked on Peacock for whatever reason.

Priester has been a bright spot. Maybe I was too harsh on him. Keller has turned it around after all - from a standpoint of the stuff's projectability - and QP is his own man/player and has his own disposition. I could totally see him being a rotation mainstay in the next year or two.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Listened to a couple more interviews/podcasts throughout the day on the draft. I'm convinced enough that the Orioles won't take Jones that I'll be surprised if they do. There are too many indicators, from ever so slight questions about Jones' eventual hit tool to the Orioles past decisions to how absurdly deep the draft is to how many potential viable options are also there which should lead to a healthy shave. for them.

The surest path to things getting really crazy is if Jones somehow doesn't go in the top two. If that happens, I think all bets are probably off, and one of the prep guys might end up not getting picked until way late and going to college. Extremely unlikely scenario.

My strong gut feeling is that the Orioles will take Johnson, who is now clear cut the guy I want for us, with the obvious caveat that this opinion carries very little weight. I think he reads as the best of all worlds for Elias, but it's worth emphasizing how all over the place the mocks are and how unconventional Elias is probably willing to get. For me, the x-factor to getting Johnson to our pick besides them just taking Jones is if they take Lee. Honestly, having them take Jones might be even better for our chances of getting Johnson, because Lee seems like more of an option right after our pick, and that could mean Johnson and Collier face a murky situation of being between us and the Cubs, with the possibility of a further fall after that.

I don't necessarily think it has to be just those players, but I think there's some reasonable likelihood that one of these top 7 guys ends up sliding all the way into the Mets lap. Speaking of the Mets, I have seen people say that Rocker didn't send imaging of the shoulder to teams, which I assume puts him on a do not draft list for several. I'm fairly close to the position of not wanting him, even in the event that he is there at 36, which I think is a coin flip, almost total unknown. I could see him going off the board at 10 to the Rockies, and I think there are landing spots throughout the teens and twenties, but also that he's a good bet to fall. It might end up being the case that he's a little like Fabian was last year, or one of those guys who everyone knows and counted on going continuing to be available, and then goes later on with a 2-3M price tag. Maybe we can do a repeat of how we got Chandler, but I'd be shocked if we go anywhere near him given all the alternatives.

I think for shits and giggles, I'll try and synthesize some of the names I am hoping for at 36 and 43 tomorrow as the game wraps up, as well as throw some darts at the wall for general guesses at what could happen. I'd really like to see the draft get crazy and entertaining, though I think I am at the point where I'm pretty out on the college players other than Parada, who seems to firmly not be in the picture for us. So all shuffling aside, I'm firmly in the Johnson, Collier, Green camp. One final wrinkle that I could see unfolding is Holliday falling a little bit, and he reportedly has a high price tag, so that could also cause some chaos. I think if the O's go Jones, then DBacks could still pull a surprise with Green or someone else, and the Rangers seem more on a college guy. Haven't seen basically any scenarios where Holliday falls outside of the top but the draft never unfolds in the same way as everyone's board.

 

[ImporterExporter]

One of the plugged in guys said a few days back that there were rumblings about one of the top HS guys pricing himself into college....I"ll try and find the tweet.

If Jones doesn't go in the top 2, you have to start wondering what his ask is. Still, it would be insanely risky to go to school when you're already mocked as the #1 overall in most cases and even when you aren't you're going 2 to Arizona, so going to college doesn't really benefit you much financially.

Personally reading as much as I have (too much), I'm of the strong opinion, that most of these guys have no clue. Teams are really, really tight lipped about this stuff, and even when real news does break, it's often misdirection from a team, obviously to throw off the comp or influence negotiations.

I'll take Jones in a heartbeat if he somehow fell to 4, but I'm more than certain at that point, he's going to ask for over slot and that doesn't fit our MO at all. Even if he's the Bucs #1 ranked prospect in the draft.

I'm sticking with Collier as what will happen. He's the son of a former Buc, which gives you extra PR song and dance crap. He'd likely sign for say a mil under slot, possibly more. Heavily scouted by us. Brought to PNC for a game not long ago. And there have been plenty of rumors, though that could just be smoke.

With that being said, I'm pulling for Jones (pipe dream) or Johnson as the primary wants. Green/Collier next up, though reading more on Holiday puts him into that camp as well. Would be ironic to see Holliday's kid in a Bucs uniform.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

It was Joe Doyle from ProspectsLive - I should have mentioned it. I listened to him on some random prospect blog I found on Spotify where he was going into a little bit more detail, but not much.

I think you are right, and I've heard Jones may have the full slot at 1 plus some. It could be a game of chicken to some extent, since everybody sees him as the top prospect and he's the son of a former MLB star. If you take him at 1-2 and he wants 10, I don't know that he's actually going to turn down 8.75 or 9 etc.

That said, I do think it would be surprising if Baltimore strays from their approach and takes him. They already have a franchise cornerstone in Adley, and there's just so much depth this year that they can add as an influx to their system. If they get the right deal and the board breaks the right way, then I think that on paper, they can top what we did last year.

I'm expecting Collier for us with the idea that he may take the biggest shave. He had all that buzz which then seemed to die off slightly in the past few days, so just guessing, but I think he's cheaper than Johnson or Lee. I do think there's an outside chance we go off the board for Neto if the Orioles take Jones, because that would vault us into the top of the slot pool.

Maybe it's just the summer blues talking, but from my perspective we need ceiling and not floor with this pick, and so that's why I really hesitate around Lee or Neto. Even Parada, while it would be strange right after Davis, at least you see him crushing tanks and able to move off the position/make full use of the DH eventually. The other two seem like Kevin Newman, who is maybe ok later in the first round, but not when there is bigger upside to chase. That said, you never know if one of the college guys pops further, so I'm trying to not walk too hard of a line based on reading a few thousand words.

Johnson and Collier both have a lot to like about their game, upside, and makeup. Collier's taking on challenge after challenge and Johnson, while seeming a little reserved in a few interviews I've seen, also clearly has that drive for greatness that you try to see in players. I think that's part of it with Baltimore -- he wants to be the first pick, and that will ultimately seal a good underslot deal for them. But I'd love a scenario where that doesn't happen and then he's down a few more picks and comes to us (at whatever slot, I like him enough that I do not care if we save much/any) with a little bit of a chip on his shoulder. I think he can end up being a faster moving HS bat who contends for batting titles year after year and can also still hit 25-30 HR in PNC Park. Collier seems great too, but he's a little bit more projection to me and the position might be a little murky, since Hayes isn't going to move off 3rd base and a corner OF is fine, but I'm not sure much different than a 2B (and Johnson could also move to a corner OF spot).

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Mock draft: MLB Pipeline's final predictions

This is it, folks, our last official mock drafts before we finally get to hear who the Orioles take No. 1 overall Sunday. Throughout the Draft season, we’ve been alternating weeks with our first-round projections. Now we’re putting them together for all of you to compare side by side. There

www.mlb.com

The final Pipeline mock is out, and both Callis and Mayo have us getting Johnson, with Mayo saying that as of late last night, his sources felt this is "as close as a lock as you can get."

I'm still slightly wary that we go off the board for Neto (though there is late top-10 buzz and some places are really high on him, such as FG), but the tidbit that Lee and Parada are more expensive college bats probably bodes well for what all of us are seemingly rooting for. Going college bat and then not having extra slot to play around with would really be the most disappointing outcome here.

Johnson just seems like the perfect kind of prep bat because of the hit tool. There's a lot less risk there, and my sense is actually that he's become a little bit underrated throughout the whole process. If the offensive game is truly there, then it's hard not to see Jones being a hugely impactful superstar, but just based on the different profiles and what it will take to click, I think in 5 years, there's a very strong chance that Termarr Johnson is the best of the whole group. I want him on the Pirates.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

2022 MLB Mock Draft

With the draft set to kick off this evening, Eric presents his mock draft.

blogs.fangraphs.com

And finally for good measure, Eric/FG weighs in...

I am not surprised that he has us going Neto, as there is late buzz that he's a top-10 pick and we're as good of a call as any for that. I plan to read up and watch some videos on him while I inevitably have Austin Gomber's CGSO vs. us on mute later this afternoon, but I don't really like the sound of it, though depending on how big of a shave and who the next picks are, there's reason to have an open mind.

I think his mock shows how much variation could possibly happen, as he has us with another college SS at 36, even though the standard assumption of everyone has been that we'd want some HS pitcher. It's necessary to keep a lot of possibilities in play, as it's never clear what value we think we're getting etc., and it's a good rule of thumb that nobody really knows much until immediately before things start happening.

No one seems to have the faintest idea what Elias is going to do, and everything else follows from that. One thing I do think is pretty perceptive here is that the connection that seemed to exist between us and Collier might be misdirection. At the same time, there are scenarios where Collier gets out to picks 9-12 or so, which could in the end mean that he is the pick at the biggest shave. It's going to be a wild ride, but I'm really firm on wanting us to walk away with Johnson (and I also think the Orioles are going to draft him 1.1).

 

[ImporterExporter]

Mock draft: MLB Pipeline's final predictions

This is it, folks, our last official mock drafts before we finally get to hear who the Orioles take No. 1 overall Sunday. Throughout the Draft season, we’ve been alternating weeks with our first-round projections. Now we’re putting them together for all of you to compare side by side. There

www.mlb.com

The final Pipeline mock is out, and both Callis and Mayo have us getting Johnson, with Mayo saying that as of late last night, his sources felt this is "as close as a lock as you can get."

I'm still slightly wary that we go off the board for Neto (though there is late top-10 buzz and some places are really high on him, such as FG), but the tidbit that Lee and Parada are more expensive college bats probably bodes well for what all of us are seemingly rooting for. Going college bat and then not having extra slot to play around with would really be the most disappointing outcome here.

Johnson just seems like the perfect kind of prep bat because of the hit tool. There's a lot less risk there, and my sense is actually that he's become a little bit underrated throughout the whole process. If the offensive game is truly there, then it's hard not to see Jones being a hugely impactful superstar, but just based on the different profiles and what it will take to click, I think in 5 years, there's a very strong chance that Termarr Johnson is the best of the whole group. I want him on the Pirates.

"cooling on Collier" seems like a negotiation ploy haha.

Either way, I'm on the Johnson wagon as who I want but it certainly seems like the O's are looking hard at him and Lee as big savers which would give them and even juicier path to talent than we had last year after taking Davis.

 

[Gallatin]

2022 MLB Mock Draft

With the draft set to kick off this evening, Eric presents his mock draft.

blogs.fangraphs.com

And finally for good measure, Eric/FG weighs in...

I am not surprised that he has us going Neto, as there is late buzz that he's a top-10 pick and we're as good of a call as any for that. I plan to read up and watch some videos on him while I inevitably have Austin Gomber's CGSO vs. us on mute later this afternoon, but I don't really like the sound of it, though depending on how big of a shave and who the next picks are, there's reason to have an open mind.

I think his mock shows how much variation could possibly happen, as he has us with another college SS at 36, even though the standard assumption of everyone has been that we'd want some HS pitcher. It's necessary to keep a lot of possibilities in play, as it's never clear what value we think we're getting etc., and it's a good rule of thumb that nobody really knows much until immediately before things start happening.

No one seems to have the faintest idea what Elias is going to do, and everything else follows from that. One thing I do think is pretty perceptive here is that the connection that seemed to exist between us and Collier might be misdirection. At the same time, there are scenarios where Collier gets out to picks 9-12 or so, which could in the end mean that he is the pick at the biggest shave. It's going to be a wild ride, but I'm really firm on wanting us to walk away with Johnson (and I also think the Orioles are going to draft him 1.1).

Love the idea of Collier at a fat discount. Termarr at a discount would be good as well. Green at slot could be even better. Oh my.

I'm quite satisfied with our options @ #4.

 

[TimmyD]

I know it won’t happen but the Pirates should go get Soto

 

[ImporterExporter]

I know it won’t happen but the Pirates should go get Soto

We have the system to do it, theoretically, but obviously Nutting would never pay 30M+ for a player. And that's obviously what Soto wants (plus maybe he just doesn't like Washington).

Just as the league is destined to do, he'll end up in NY or LA.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Listened to a brief interview with Kiley on Nick Pollack and Alex Fast's podcast and he made an interesting point with the Orioles. They already have such a big bonus pool that they can likely play the bully with most players they would want at their second and third picks, so if they did do a shave, it might be because they already have a certain player targeted who would be a 4M guy.

One player who could fit that mold is Cade Horton, who can go back to school and already has late helium because of his CWS performance. I think a similar logic could also be in play if we go well under slot, i.e., if we take Neto. I can see a process where we might have ended up liking Johnson the most, but he goes #1, and aren't going to go for Lee, Parada, or Green. Then you have Collier sitting there, but it could be a similar logic as what the Orioles are presumably looking at with Jones, Holliday, and Johnson (or others). Do you like the first player in that group more than the others? If so, by how much? What if one of the others comes for 2M cheaper? Etc.

Still want to look into Neto, but he strikes me as the exact kind of pick who would be unpopular because he hasn't really been mentioned until very late or ranked super highly most of the year. My take is just that there's so many moving parts that it's hard to pin anything down for sure. I think it's similar with whatever we do with the next picks. Everybody wants to see us load up on pitching, but maybe the board gives you a certain college hitter who you have ranked 13th on your board or something. It's always impossible to form solid opinions based just on reading some reports and picking out a few names (having said that, I plan to do exactly that in here just before the draft starts, lol).

 

[ImporterExporter]

I'm not excited about using the 4th overall on a kid from Campbell.

To me, even if he saved you something ridiculous like 2-2.5, is it really worth gambling on a definitely lesser prospect than a guy with a hit tool like Johnson? Or the ceiling of Green?

Last year the shave worked because there really was no consensus #1. Nothing even close to it actually. Davis was the best college bat, a middle of the order masher, who just happened to play a position we were very thin on, organizationally. So going under slot as the #1 overall, made a ton of sense, as we saw how things unfolded.

This year, you have a handful of guys, who should have no business going behind a guy like Neto. And look, maybe Neto ends up being the best player in the whole draft. I have no idea. But the 2 years worth of scouting material says you have 4 really, really, great HS bats (Jones, Johnson, Green, Holiday). Collier is just outside those 4 IMO, and technically a college bat.

So one of those 4 HS kids I mentioned will be on the board for us. I will be quite disappointed if we go for a guy who most people don't rank in the top 10, prospect wise. I'd rather see us just pay slot value for the upside at 4.

 

[TimmyD]

We have the system to do it, theoretically, but obviously Nutting would never pay 30M+ for a player. And that's obviously what Soto wants (plus maybe he just doesn't like Washington).

Just as the league is destined to do, he'll end up in NY or LA.

They definitely have the system to pull it off, but yeah Nutting would never spend the money needed to sign him long term. Which is a damn shame because that is the kind of bonafide star this team could use. Reynolds and Soto as 2/3rds of your outfield is pretty good

 

[sovietsanta87]

FWIW baseball America released their latest mock this afternoon. Holliday, Jones, Parada, and we get Temarr Johnson.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I'm not excited about using the 4th overall on a kid from Campbell.

To me, even if he saved you something ridiculous like 2-2.5, is it really worth gambling on a definitely lesser prospect than a guy with a hit tool like Johnson? Or the ceiling of Green?

Last year the shave worked because there really was no consensus #1. Nothing even close to it actually. Davis was the best college bat, a middle of the order masher, who just happened to play a position we were very thin on, organizationally. So going under slot as the #1 overall, made a ton of sense, as we saw how things unfolded.

This year, you have a handful of guys, who should have no business going behind a guy like Neto. And look, maybe Neto ends up being the best player in the whole draft. I have no idea. But the 2 years worth of scouting material says you have 4 really, really, great HS bats (Jones, Johnson, Green, Holiday). Collier is just outside those 4 IMO, and technically a college bat.

So one of those 4 HS kids I mentioned will be on the board for us. I will be quite disappointed if we go for a guy who most people don't rank in the top 10, prospect wise. I'd rather see us just pay slot value for the upside at 4.

I agree, without having seen anything just yet. The only place I can kind of squint and see it is if the top goes Johnson, Jones, Holliday. I get the sense that we might be out on Green and also that he could really be the one who starts to slide. I'd rather have Green over Neto to be sure, but if Neto takes a bigger cut than Collier, that might be their angle.

I feel pretty good about our chances to take Johnson if Baltimore doesn't grab him at 1.1. I would definitely not be happy to pass on Johnson for a guy like Neto, even if a place like FG likes him a lot (he has him in the same tier as Johnson, though would have Johnson at 27 and Neto at 54 on a full prospect list). Honestly, Johnson just ticks a lot of boxes for me. Green's upside is still more exciting, but if you can nab a top-30 MLB prospect at #4 who has off the charts makeup and who scouts are out of superlatives for with the hit tool, I don't think you think twice. Hopefully the sourced stuff from Mayo turns out to be true, but I still think Baltimore nabs him.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Cruz climbing towards 40% K rate. Funny how things work. His glove has been a real plus, and the bat a big negative so far.

 

[sovietsanta87]

Cruz climbing towards 40% K rate. Funny how things work. His glove has been a real plus, and the bat a big negative so far.

The whole team can’t hit. Honestly idk if they changed their philosophy as an organization and it’s taking time to implement but if they don’t improve soon you have to level every hitting instructor in the system and bring in someone that knows what the hell theyre doing. Of course that also costs money so….

 

[DJ Spinoza]

What's notable and at least encouraging with Cruz is that he's still producing positive value despite struggling at the plate. He's consistently being pitched like he's a big threat, which isn't a huge surprise. To me, it looks like he is often up there just basically taking pitches, and I think it would be better if he were more aggressive early in counts, which might throw off the pitchers' game plans a little bit, even if it still causes him to be way ahead of breaking stuff.

 

[Gallatin]

Cruz climbing towards 40% K rate. Funny how things work. His glove has been a real plus, and the bat a big negative so far.

It's been my opinion since well before he was recalled that Cruz needed to fail at the MLB level if he's ever to become a great player. So I got no problem with letting this continue.

And there goes another really ugly K....

 

[DJ Spinoza]

It's almost comical how intensely pitchers seem to pitch Cruz, and how little they fail. That dude just threw three perfect pitches to him and then immediately left a fastball in a meaty part of the plate vs. Delay.

I just hope after the break, he's still higher in the order vs. RHP. He's been so bad vs. LHP that you can't totally justify it (and maybe even sit him until he gets going), but he needs the reps, and ideally some modicum of lineup protection. It's an ugly last chunk of games but this was also bound to happen and he has to punch back.

And just like that, he hangs another meaty FB for Newman. It's like it's MLB the Show pitching when Cruz is up there compared to anyone else.

 

[ImporterExporter]

It's almost comical how intensely pitchers seem to pitch Cruz, and how little they fail. That dude just threw three perfect pitches to him and then immediately left a fastball in a meaty part of the plate vs. Delay.

I just hope after the break, he's still higher in the order vs. RHP. He's been so bad vs. LHP that you can't totally justify it (and maybe even sit him until he gets going), but he needs the reps, and ideally some modicum of lineup protection. It's an ugly last chunk of games but this was also bound to happen and he has to punch back.

And just like that, he hangs another meaty FB for Newman. It's like it's MLB the Show pitching when Cruz is up there compared to anyone else.

I mean it seems comical in a small smaller size but over the course of the season this happens to everyone. I'd avoid making defenses of Cruz in this manner.

Cruz is shit at the dish right now. I don't know why, and won't pretend to have the magic solution, but he's nowhere close. Even when he is making contact, it's generally weak, either a rolled over ground ball or sky high pop up.

Can't wait until the draft to get my mind off how infuriating the franchise is. So sick of seeing other teams develop player after player, and almost everyone we bring along either busts or doesn't maximize their ability until the day they leave Pittsburgh.

 

[ImporterExporter]

And furthermore, Cruz has looked god awful today, in a game where the team IS hitting the pitching. 5 runs on 10 hits through 6 is great offense. So it's not like everyone else is struggling this bad. Oh, well Hayes, but his bat has been replacement level for a year now.

Is what it is. Glad we're finally not looking inept but it's mainly guys who won't even be here in a month....

 

[ImporterExporter]

THIS. I've seen it so many times, not only from Cruz but the entire lineup. Middle/middle and we're looking at them, getting behind in counts.