OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

[ChaosAgent]

In the early going it looks like the Cherington rebuild is going to top out at 85ish wins barring substantial outside acquisitions and a lights-out bullpen helping them outperform projections.

The upper levels of the minors is already here and while individual players are promising in the lower minors, holistically I don't see Bradenton and Greensboro as having a richer talent pool than the average A-ball levels of other organizations.
Then you have the low level promising pitchers that fade into obscurity or move up a level and get shelled: Taj Thomas, Yean, Florez, Mlod, Brennan Malone.

I guess if we like Cherington enough we give him another 2 years to get us back on the correct trajectory, which to me almost certainly means trading Reynolds and Bednar is the right move.
The system is thin, thin, thin on talent considering we only really have 4 top assets at the ML level right now - or whatever service time hole Roansy is in.

What accelerated the previous rebuild was outstanding acquisitions of Burnett, Liriano and Martin. We'll need something similar for this go-round to work.

 

[Gallatin]

BTW, here are Solometo's KS from today.

Missed this game, Thanx.

One of the things this season that's caught my interest with Solo is that outside fastball against right-handers. They don't seem to pick it up so well, and they're constantly swinging at it outside the zone. Hoping that continues as he climbs the Minor Leagues.

 

[Gallatin]

Cruz rolling so many balls over is not a good sign when you attach it to the K rate.

Thought tonight would be a possible breakout game given Marquez has gotten hammered w/loft against.

Oh well...

If Oneil Cruz can't hit .200 I'm all for sending him back down to figure out more strategy and patience at the plate. I don't believe he can be successful with his current approach.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

For those following draft stuff, the FanGraphs draft board has finally been overhauled after not having been for much of the summer (understandably so, given all the departures): 2022 Draft Prospects | THE BOARD | FanGraphs

He seems really in on Brooks Lee, which is an encouraging sign for that possibility, but I still can't totally get there. He threw a 60 on Jones and has him ballparked at 10 overall on an MLB prospect list, which if I were an Orioles fan, would cement me wanting to just not mess around and take him.

I'm seeing a bit of chatter that wants to see Jones fall to us, and while I get that sentiment, it's really wishful thinking. I'm all-in on the idea that he'll go to Arizona with Baltimore cutting a deal with someone at #1. Arizona has a bigger pool than us, which just means it's not happening and better not to think about. If Baltimore took Johnson/Lee, Arizona would have to be infatuated with Holliday or Green to make it happen, because even with a high price tag, they will still be able to haul in players later.

Also of note, he's extremely high on Zach Neto, who I've seen floated a handful of times recently as a big under slot possibility for us. He's surprisingly pretty in on Jacob Berry, who he puts a 50 on and has slightly above Collier and Green, who he is a little lower than the field on.

Lots more to dig in on, and at a quick glance the list seems to validate the quality of depth for our later picks. If you just go by the straight up listing, his 40 tier extends almost to our 4th round pick, so there's some potential for 2-3 really good upside guys in addition to #4, along with another solid option or two.

When all is said and done, I'm settling into the camp of rooting for Termarr Johnson to get to us and be the pick, moreso than where I've been at with Green. Green's upside is still so intriguing, and I prefer it to others, but I think Johnson has that sweet spot of comfort with the most important tool and willingness to cut a little deal that allows for a huge swing at #36 or #44 (I would really like to see us grab LHP Noah Schultz for the upside, or in what I think would be more of a surprise, LHP Cooper Hjerpe for the timeline/floor and also skillset that probably plays up in PNC).

There is no consensus at all as we head into draft day tomorrow with the mocks. I think Longenhagen's is always pretty interesting because he has a ton of sources and tends to be the MLB version of Woj in his chats on draft day, but even then for example, he had us on Mayer the morning of the draft last year. My sense is that Baltimore will likely take Johnson, but mocks are all over the place with them. Them deciding that Green is too good to pass on is likely the best chain of events for us, since if they take Johnson or someone else, then that's less options available for a deal at #4, not to mention that Baltimore's slot budget will be hit.

My meaningless predictions: If BAL takes Jones, we'll get a serious underslot at #4 with Neto and become the team with the biggest slot muscle for our next two picks. If BAL takes Johnson, Lee, Collier, or the field, then we'll take one of those three at a deal we like and still have muscle to flex, but not quite as much.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Absent-minded thought of optimism: I guess when the MLB bans shifts next year a lot of our guys stand to benefit. Reynolds if he's still here. Suwinski. Cruz.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Good lord, turning down $440M is quite a move.

He must want out of DC, that's the only way it makes any sense.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Good lord, turning down $440M is quite a move.

He must want out of DC, that's the only way it makes any sense.

No 29 mill isn’t enough he wants the trout money just wait until Otanhi gets to free agency

 

[DJ Spinoza]

BA's newest mock has us taking Johnson too and I'm almost to the point of having my hopes up with him. They point out that a few teams have seen him nearly in every game, which includes us. I think the Orioles end up taking him, but honestly if the Orioles save slot at #1, it might be a better guess that they'd just go with Lee and have him quickly rising to meet their other core players. Unless they are in love with Johnson too, it seems like they probably still get a deal with Lee, so maybe that covers multiple bases for them, as they also have tended to like college bats.

 

[Gallatin]

Mitch Keller off to yet another good start. He's become the reason I tune into a game.

Keller's pitching like a #3 BTW since y'all decided to toss him aside as a failed prospect. And he still has quite a long ways to go to become a finished product. The ceiling's still very high, but he's turned a corner for sure. The dude can spin it.

This is my favorite kind of being right - when you take a stand against negative popular opinion because you see something others don't.

OT: Hot damn HextaBurke finally got busy on this team! Hopefully all these moves work out. We need change around the Core.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Yeah, Cruz has mental gremlins on throwing. They've been kept suppressed but that was hideous.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, I was thinking the run of throws where he took some off was eventually not going to end well. I'm glad to see him drill down and focus on these sinkers from Urena here for the hit, even though I am confident as I type that Yoshi will not come through.

There were times in the minors where you would see Cruz make an error and then give away the next AB. These were mostly last year, so good to see him punch back,

 

[ChaosAgent]

I don't know if I'm more disappointed in Yoshi or Martin.

Maybe management for not keeping Madris up. Yoshi's cooked. Let Madris play 1st.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I can't watch this team. As good as Keller has been the last 2 months, our lineup is a disaster nearly everyone a bum.

Cruz has about another week to get going, otherwise he should go back if we're being consistent based on performance.

 

[Gallatin]

I can't watch this team. As good as Keller has been the last 2 months, our lineup is a disaster nearly everyone a bum.

Cruz has about another week to get going, otherwise he should go back if we're being consistent based on performance.

I've been watching Keller, and passing on our hitters all day. If we score I'll go back, but this Line-up is not watchable unless their actually scoring IMO.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Keller's progress has been a huge deal, given our overall unwillingness to add pitching via free agency. Him trusting his stuff and shouldering a good chunk of innings as a solid #3 type is a great outcome to me, and if he continues to improve as many starters tend to do, then that's even better.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I've been watching Keller, and passing on our hitters all day. If we score I'll go back, but this Line-up is not watchable unless their actually scoring IMO.

Hm. Well hopefully your boy Ben Cherington brings in better external talent with a bigger budget.

He can buy them all copies of motivational books and mindfulness retreats.

Since you love reminding people when you're right.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I feel like our team is about 10 for 500 w/RISP this year. So pathetic. Haines fanclub!!!

 

[DJ Spinoza]

We're definitely ready for a little break from this mess.

Honestly, even though this is little solace for actually watching games, I think the individual performance of Keller is such a plus that it makes some of the rest stomachable. So many of the guys currently out there are not going to be a factor out of spring training next year, and hopefully by August. It can't end soon enough, but it's also whatever at this point... we're on our way to a pick in the 4-9 range (even if the bottom drops out further, I just don't see us "catching" the A's, Nats, or Reds) and a lot of ugly losses. If part of this season is about Mitch Keller emerging as a true rotation anchor with some more ticks up remaining, then that's a pretty big W.

I don't want to play the role of positivity or BC booster, but that's a pretty big takeaway in the right direction. I think otherwise, we have to hope that Reynolds' injury isn't too serious for the sake of watchability. I also think Cruz's progress will need to be tracked in lumps of games and not something like his overall BA, especially in such an offensively suppressed environment as 2022 MLB. He's up to 25 games and it's a mixed bag in a few ways. The Ks need to come down, and more than anything offensively, he needs to get more comfortable at the plate. He's showing it at times, and then other times he's off balance or hesitant when he should be aggressive and vice versa. Defensively, he has been a huge plus, and hard to understate how important that is given the potential value.

I think developmentally, we are not in the most ideal place with him given the commitment to ST manipulation that delayed the start of his MLB ABs. IMO what he needs is definitely to stick in this 5th or 6th spot in the order at the lowest -- he's not getting lineup protection there because of how bad most of the other hitters are, but at least it should keep him getting 4 ABs a game. It's a waste to have him only have 3. If he struggles over the course of multiple more weeks post-ASB, then you might need to figure something out, but the bottom line is that he needs to face MLB pitching and learn and make adjustments. I still have a high degree of confidence in him as long as he doesn't start getting buried in the order or Shelton starts putting Newman at SS over him or something.

Otherwise, I am actually more bullish on Brubaker than I was at any point before, and I think Thompson can shoulder some innings as a backend guy. We need to do the impossible and aggressively go after Musgrove, but I'm not even thinking about it happening really. Maybe we'll surprise and try to stick with Quintana as a veteran, or otherwise find our next reclamation and try for an option year or something.

Hopefully Mitchell can stick for a bit, or at least we get Marcano back soon, along with a promotion of Bae after the ASB. I am not on board with it, but I'm willing to fart around for the next 2 weeks so long as there's an actual commitment to a full-fledged youth movement starting after the deadline. I'd like to see Quintana kept and re-signed unless there's a truly wild offer, and even if for example Newman stays, then you have those two, Vogey, and a bunch of kids. It's one thing to stick with vets and another to stick with guys on expiring deals when you have too many players on the 40-man who you need to get a look at along with more to be added in the offseason.

Finally, I am hoping that Cherington gets a little bit creative with a deal at the deadline. Not exactly sure what, as there's no way we're doing something like trading for a controllable starter or anything, but maybe a low key change of scenery or prospect exchange for a guy you think can pop in the right opportunity. We need a little life beyond just playing out the inevitable and hoping for better luck next year.

 

[Gallatin]

Hm. Well hopefully your boy Ben Cherington brings in better external talent with a bigger budget.

He can buy them all copies of motivational books and mindfulness retreats.

Since you love reminding people when you're right.

I'm definitely more patient than you. And less ornery even. Bailing on Cherington right now is kinda comical IMO. At least for Hardcores like us that is.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I'm definitely more patient than you. And less ornery even. Bailing on Cherington right now is kinda comical IMO...

People are hammering BC, and won't even respond when I point out that in year 3, Huntington's team lost 103 games IIRC. It was 100+ for sure.

This instant gratification society we've created sucks in so many ways.

Talk to me in 2 years. If were still pushing 100 losses, then it's time to fire everyone.

Make no mistake, we f***ing suck right now. And I am dead serious when I say that if Shelton and company are back next year, I will not watch until he is gone.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I'm definitely more patient than you. And less ornery even. Bailing on Cherington right now is kinda comical IMO. At least for Hardcores like us that is.

I'm not bailing on Cherington.

But pointing out that your perspective is highly clouded by availability bias of puff pieces that basically confirm that prospects work on things. Just like in every other organization. If you asked national writers or rankers for extra brownie/bonus points based on "well the Pirates will develop better because they hired a hugger quantity of developmental people at lower levels," they would laugh at you. Or say, yes, hire developmental people at lower levels. Great. But that isn't some durable competitive advantage.

 

[Gallatin]

People are hammering BC, and won't even respond when I point out that in year 3, Huntington's team lost 103 games IIRC. It was 100+ for sure.

This instant gratification society we've created sucks in so many ways.

Talk to me in 2 years. If were still pushing 100 losses, then it's time to fire everyone.

Make no mistake, we f***ing suck right now. And I am dead serious when I say that if Shelton and company are back next year, I will not watch until he is gone.

I boycotted EVERYTHING MLB from 2006-2012, so I get it.

I'm not bailing on Cherington.

But pointing out that your perspective is highly clouded by availability bias of puff pieces that basically confirm that prospects work on things. Just like in every other organization. If you asked national writers or rankers for extra brownie/bonus points based on "well the Pirates will develop better because they hired a hugger quantity of developmental people at lower levels," they would laugh at you. Or say, yes, hire developmental people at lower levels. Great. But that isn't some durable competitive advantage.

You certainly have opinions...

Even after I gave access to some of the Scouts & Coaches I get to discuss the Pirates with....

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think there are reasons not to go totally nuclear, but the 2022 balance sheet for development does not look very great. A lot of the pitching guys have seen their stuff regress, important guys are missing huge chunks of time or stalling out, and it's opaque at best if the front office believes in its upper minors talent.

I think that there is a very close relationship between the front office and coaching staff, even up to the point of lineup calls. Shelton is much more plugged in with the overall approach that Cherington has, which makes me skeptical that he's going to get the can anytime soon. I think he will have until this time of the year next season at the earliest.

I'm hoping that the draft and a break can energize the post-ASB stretch. There have been some flashes of something nice in recent weeks, but really only that, and amidst some pretty low lows. I would be surprised if Gomber doesn't dominate us tomorrow, and I am worried we may not even see much of Reynolds for the rest of the year, depending on how bad the oblique is.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I boycotted EVERYTHING MLB from 2006-2012, so I get it.


You certainly have opinions...

Even after I gave access to some of the Scouts & Coaches I get to discuss the Pirates with....

That was a good set of opinions and takes. But everything can be spun. None of them spoke on the record. And if you don't recognize that A) an equivalent website of Pirates Prospects could exist for most franchises and B) that you, as a lover of all things process, would similarly fall all over a Royalsprospects or Oriolesprospects or giantsprospects or whatever, you have an inflated opinion of yourself.

I hope you recognize that process is wonderful that all the things on process don't mean anything at the end of the day if they don't produce results. And at every level that has been lacking.

BC inherited a much better state of things than his predecessor too. Literally a farm system with 3 prospects in Cutch, Walker and Steve Pearce

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Good start to the Altoona game for Priester. Getting chases and overall throwing strikes.

Curious to see how Burrows does in the futures game, but going to rely on clips since MLB has it locked on Peacock for whatever reason.