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OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

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I thought Longenhagen's writeup about the Atlanta comp pick trade was worth a read, since it's an unusual one that gives a peek into how teams might value that pick: Atlanta Acquires 35th Overall Draft Pick From Royals for Upper-Level Prospects

He notes a little bit ominously that Atlanta now has weapons in order to block a team from floating a player past them to the comp round or early second round, which is exactly what I think people expect the Orioles and us (at least) to try and do. However, it's also worth noting that he mentions a number of times how much he likes the depth of this class.

My guess is that Atlanta might try and float Lesko to their first round pick. Haven't seen it reported, but he's a local talent and we know they are a pitching factory. Given how much hype he had, it's easy to see why they'd try for this opportunity, but I think there's some likelihood that Lesko might still get nabbed somewhere in the 9-15 range of things.

For our part, my sense is still Green/Johnson/Collier in that order and then see what happens later. We should go upside to be sure, but there's going to be upside there at #4. Green is the purest upside play possible, and both Johnson and Collier represent sort of compromise upside plays in a way, with Johnson having elite skill at the most important carrying tool (hit) and Collier being the late-riser, model-driven guy (who is technically college I suppose, but age-wise has tons of projection left).

The obvious caveat for me is that I genuinely have no clue in differentiating the tiers of players who could start falling to #36. I don't really see a scenario where we get two great prep talents and a first round talent, which is what happened last year and is more of a once in forever type of scenario. It seems like the general consensus is that there is not a huge difference between #9/10 and the tail end of the first round, which means some of those players should still be available at #36. How it plays out exactly is anyone's guess, so if it means taking Lee to pull something off, I'll be disappointed but reserve judgment. (I wonder how many times I'll just keep regurgitating this before Sunday night).
 
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Hmmmm.......don't think I have ever seen that. 5 consecutive putouts for a fielder. Marsinick with 5 straight catches in CF.
 
Chandler went 2-3. Guessing he pitches later this week. What an athlete. Dude had a full ride to Clemson for football. Switch hitter with obvious pop, and his arm is the premier path to the big leagues.
 
Caught the end of the game to see his single (from the left side). He's a little bit bigger than I expected, and he also seemed to be trying to cause some havoc on the basepaths, though the batter kept fouling off the pitch and so he didn't end up with a SB attempt.

Looking forward to his start on Thursday.
 
Bae with a homer and double tonight. I want him as the first call up once the vets start getting traded. He and Marcano should be first 2 back up without a doubt, beyond obviously Roansy.

 
ImporterExporter said:
Bae with a homer and double tonight. I want him as the first call up once the vets start getting traded. He and Marcano should be first 2 back up without a doubt, beyond obviously Roansy.

Click to expand...


Won't be a homer in PNC.

Regardless, I want to see him as well.

TBH Suwinski might be due to go down for a stretch as well, and Allen is about done with his rehab.
 
I could see a lot of the OF prospects being kind of in between decent options and depth guys -- they have all around games, so will be useful through their option years, and hopefully one can pop a little bit instead of getting pushed back vs. MLB hitting, I think assuming we clear plenty of space by the deadline, Swaggerty is still the guy I want to see get an everyday crack, just because his carrying tools of speed and defense give him a good foundation.

It should obviously go by merit, though, so we'll see. For reasons that are obvious from watching him play, Cruz really has no business being forced out there, and I'm still pretty negative towards Castillo doing it, even though I get the logic as a super utility guy.

I tend to think Suwinski should play through it, but the slide is getting really rough. I also think Cruz needs to be up in the order. Even if he's just 6th, he still has a better chance to at least have 4 PAs every game.
 
Callis talks a little bit about the pitching situation in his newsletter: https://view.mail.mlblists.com/messages/165765644569985e86b66f6c8/raw

He notes that there is real uncertainty about how everything will shake out, and the top 10 picks all being hitters is possible (never happened before), as well as 20/30 of the first round.

That's probably good news in terms of getting upside at #36, but we'll see. It seems like we're all laser-focused on getting pitching with the other picks, and while I'm definitely in that camp, there's enough hitting depth that I wouldn't be upset with certain other picks at #36, even if getting tons of pitching is always an organizational need.

Specifically, he mentions that Porter is likely to be the first pitcher taken, but also that there is late buzz that Prielipp may get back into the top-10, and Hjerpe is likely to go very high as well, as besides Porter, he's one of the few without injury issues. I really like the idea of taking the gamble on Prielipp, but I doubt he makes it to #36, and similarly, Hjerpe seems like a really solid option for a quicker moving guy whose stuff would play well in PNC.

He doesn't say this there about Rocker, but I listened to his latest podcast and the ballpark range he guessed was 15-25. The impression that I get is that there are several teams who basically have Rocker on a do not draft list because of the medicals, whereas for other teams who have a more liberal approach, it's not an issue at all and he could go relatively high. Honestly at this point my gut reaction is that the Mets would be the kind of flashy team to grab him if they didn't already do it last year and have the team doctors who are reportedly a bit insane. If I were to guess on Rocker, I would say the Angels are a possibility, then the Phillies, Yankees, and White Sox. There's enough variability with the overall situation that I think it's pretty reasonable that he might slip to the comp round, but I just don't think that us or the Orioles are the kind of team who would target him.


To be clear, I'd still be thrilled if we ended up with a prep bat at #4 (I am including Collier even though it's technically not true) and got Rocker at #36, even if that just meant a slight underslot college guy at #44 or something. I still buy the upside and the competitiveness, and while there are a lot of other pitchers who seem like great options, I don't see anyone outside of maybe Lesko and Porter who scream like better options (and I'd be shocked if either were there).

To round this up, Callis also briefly talked about the Pirates top pick on his latest podcast. Something I found interesting was that he seemed to imply that Johnson wasn't really on our radar, and almost that it was Collier vs. Lee. He didn't bluntly come out and say that, and it wasn't the direct topic, so I could be reading into things, but that's the sense I got. It came up because they were debating Collier vs. Johnson.

It's all going to hinge on the Orioles IMO. The consensus is slowly seeming to indicate that Johnson is their best path to saving the most slot $, but it also seems within the realm of possibility that they already have their pick decided and just aren't leaking because it still gives them the best leverage on Sunday night.

This is really meandering at this point, but one other thing I wanted to note was that Callis also suggested Collier's slot bonus might be less than Lee's, which is the first I've heard of this. The reason is that if Collier is there at #4 and doesn't get picked, he thinks he will last until #7, whereas Lee is in play for any of the picks immediately following ours. As much as Lee's profile of a great switch-hitter with good power could end up being appealing in the long run, this is good news for those wanting the younger options.

I'm still firmly in the camp of Green, Johnson, Collier, but there's not even a whiff that Green might be possible. I do really like Collier at a slot discount, and that might be the best of all worlds, but there's also a gap for me with Johnson in terms of how good the hit tool is. Honestly, the more I vacillate, the more I am intrigued by a real shocker like going for Brock Porter at a fairly decent underslot. It's much riskier to take a prep pitcher, of course, but he's got the projectable frame and fastball, and the changeup being so advanced is a good sign. I can't say I'd want to see it happen fully, but it'd be an exciting surprise to say the least. If he's not quite in play until the 9-13 range, then a deal might give you a pretty significant 2M shave -- like a less extreme version of what the Royals did last year.
 
Actually just realized after writing all of that that there is a newer Callis/Mayo Pipeline podcast, which slightly contradicts some of what I was rambling about. To spare the verbosity:

- They seem fairly confident that the top 3 will be Jones, Holliday, Johnson, and Lee, and only seem to think Johnson would go #1 in these scenarios as the deal-cutting move. They think the top pick is split between the first three guys with a very minimal chance that Lee would go, but in any scenario, they seem to think there's 0% chance at all that Jones gets by the DBacks (which we've heard everywhere) and that perhaps in some surprising situation, Parada could sneak up to #3 (I think if BAL goes Jones and ARI goes Holliday).

- They were pretty consistent in mocking Johnson to #4, almost seeing it as a kind of toss up with Collier (slightly tipping to Johnson), and Lee as also possible but not as likely. Specifically, they think Johnson will be cheaper than Lee.

- They have no idea what is going to happen with Rocker, but ballpark him more towards late first and comp round than mid-first.


I'm sure it will keep rotating, so there's no need to dive this deep. The main takeaway is that they are pretty confident that we'll try to strike a deal and that the three candidates are Johnson, Collier, and Lee, with Lee more distant.
 
Last year I though Chandler was incredibly raw at the plate. I did not like his swing, and was questioning if he was going to be able to hit A-ball pitching.

These days I'm kind of amazed with how much Bubba has improved since last season. There's been rapid massive progress. And that may be a sign of a good development program.

Or not.









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And hey - that Toney Blanco Jr. kid is super interesting too....



"While Tony Blanco Jr. originally looked headed to the Rays, he ended up signing with the Pirates instead. He is the son of Tony Blanco, a Baseball America Top 100 prospect two straight years who played briefly for the Nationals in 2005 before moving on to Japan, where he hit at least 30 home runs in three seasons. Blanco Jr. is even bigger with an enormous 6-foot-6, 240-pound frame, with the combination of strength and bat speed to produce plus raw power that could be plus-plus in the future. Scouts highest on Blanco Jr. see him as a potential masher in the middle of a lineup, though others had more concerns about his pure hitting ability. At his size, there's some risk Blanco ends up at first base, though he's only a slightly below-average runner right now so he can start in right field, with arm strength that has improved to above-average with a quick release."

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2021-22 International Reviews: Pittsburgh Pirates

A full breakdown of the latest Pirates international signings entering their farm system, from the top players to the sleepers to watch.
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That's why Cruz walking is so important for his long term gains. His speed makes him an instant threat to get into scoring position. He's scored a lot of the times he has got on. Teams see this and obviously record/track it. The more he gets on base via walks, the juicer offerings he'll get subsequently.
 
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