What if I told you it wasn’t the Orioles that held the cards in the 2022 MLB Draft, but the New York Mets instead?
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Extremely unlikely and just presented as a "what if", but still fun to think about as we bide our time until the draft. New York is New York, but I still don't see the Mets as a kind of marquee organization that a young player might want to force themselves to. If the Mets could offer the highest price tag, then it could make some sense, but I'm still a little bit skeptical.
I think the likelier outcome is that Baltimore wavers on Jones but that he won't get past Arizona, like everyone says. Even if the Mets could pay 9M, Arizona can do that without blowing their next pick, and we could do the same without totally blowing our next picks -- more like slight underslot on one of them, slot on the other, and punting some of the 4th-10th round picks to save 250K here and there.
Jones also doesn't exactly seem like the slam dunk worthy of doing this for, though in fairness he's still a great five-tool guy and if there was a Rutschman type prospect, he's not getting past 1.1 anyways.
I'll be slightly surprised if Baltimore takes Jones, just because it doesn't fit with what we've seen over and over again from Elias. Them being on the upswing in MLB with the chance to either add at the deadline or just wait and have another wave of good prospects rising makes them more of a wildcard. They could go for someone like Lee who would easily be underslot and get to the MLB team fairly quickly, also allowing them to spend lavishly on upside guys with their next picks. My guess based just on speculation is that they'll surprise everyone and draft Collier. It gets them a similar outcome of slot spreading and Collier seems to be a guy that model-based teams like them would favor, not to mention his helium.
That would then likely leave Jones with the DBacks at #2. All signs point to there being no way he gets passed them, so if you are like me and looking for the most outrageous scenarios like Jones somehow falling to us, it's probably not worth thinking about it. The only wild stab I can make is if somehow people are wrong and the DBacks like Green more/ like him more than Jones' pricetag. If the top two then went Collier/Johnson/Lee #1, Green #2, Texas still probably figures out the money for Jones, but we have a serious advantage in draft pool over them and so it could get interesting.
All that said, this is just a bunch of wild ramblings spurred on by a totally implausible scenario. I think even if the Mets somehow did this, it's still reasonably likely that we'll be able to select one of Johnson or Collier, and if not them, then Green would be there. I said last night that I've settled on wanting Green, but I'd be really surprised if we picked him. I think the best rooting interest for us is Johnson or Collier, though I guess there's also an unlikely scenario where Holliday gets to us. I haven't looked too much into him. I'm preparing for us to take Lee and to try and talk myself into liking it as I hope someone worth it makes it to #36.