OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

[ChaosAgent]

Oblique/side injuries are brutal. You think you're good and they just nag at you. Seems like you can never get to 100%.

If that's legit what it is, the AS break is timed well.

 

[Empoleon8771]

For all of the hand wringing about Cruz's performance in the majors so far from some, he's still grading out phenomenally defensively on BR and is OPSing at .681 as a SS.

He swings at too many pitches outside of the zone, which is why he has a ton of strikeouts and very few walks, but that's about the only major issue with Cruz in the majors so far.

 

[td_ice]

This ump.....ugh.

 

[ChaosAgent]

For all of the hand wringing about Cruz's performance in the majors so far from some, he's still grading out phenomenally defensively on BR and is OPSing at .681 as a SS.

He swings at too many pitches outside of the zone, which is why he has a ton of strikeouts and very few walks, but that's about the only major issue with Cruz in the majors so far.

It's not hand-wringing. It hasn't been that good. .681 - yeesh, the "soft bigotry of low expectations" indeed.

 

[Empoleon8771]

It's not hand-wringing. It hasn't been that good. .681 - yeesh, the "soft bigotry of low expectations" indeed.

I mean, that .681 OPS with Cruz's defense so far is a solidly above average player according to BR.

BR has him on track for 4.6 WAR over a 162 game season with his MLB stats so far without including today's stats.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Booooom! Insurance runs!

 

[ImporterExporter]

YES!!!!!! HES DANIEL VOGELBACH AND HE HITS DINGERS.

 

[td_ice]

This man crushes rhp!

Vogelbach with a 3 run shot!!

 

[ImporterExporter]

Well, not over yet. Awful hanging pitch there.

 

[td_ice]

Crap, 8-6 now after Cutch's 2 run homer.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I haven't liked Bednar's approach for a while now. You're up 4 runs. Pound the fastball and pitch to contact.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Raise it!!!!

 

[td_ice]

Raise it!

 

[DanielPlainview]

Mine eyes deceive me?

 

[DJ Spinoza]

DJ's scouting report on Cruz's defense has shown to be spot on.

Yep. I like that DJ really hammered that home. A lot of us were too dismissive. It's early but fielding wise he's been great. Throwing needs some seasoning in terms of accuracy but I think that will improve over time.

Thanks guys, I've been pleasantly surprised with how locked in his been defensively, and at least for me, it's decidedly proven that he needs to stay at shortstop until he's slowed down much or someone really forces the issue by being so elite that you have no choice. Obviously, we have to see where the bat is after some time in MLB, but unless he flames out, the type of offense he will produce from that position will make him incredibly value from a team-building perspective.

My sense on the bat has cooled a little. I think it's a comfort thing, so the best thing that could happen for him is to string together 3-4 good days. I still don't really see what some seem to in terms of his decisions or him not recognizing pitches or anything. I think he's too tentative at times and then too aggressive or fooled at other times. I don't think it's an issue that gets fixed by going back to AAA, and in any case I think we need another 2 weeks of games before we start thinking about the best thing going forward.

It's nice to see him have lots of good things today after some really bad games lately. I'd like to see Shelton finally move him up some in the order, because I think he's going to get better opportunities if he hits near better players. Still, I expect him to take a seat tomorrow vs. Rogers, and it's probably not the worst call. Good game, give him a quick blow with no off days and hope he hits the ground running Tuesday, even though he'll have tough matchups against the Marlins' righties anyways.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Raise it!

Second series win in Milwaukee in... 4 years

 

[ChaosAgent]

Thanks guys, I've been pleasantly surprised with how locked in his been defensively, and at least for me, it's decidedly proven that he needs to stay at shortstop until he's slowed down much or someone really forces the issue by being so elite that you have no choice. Obviously, we have to see where the bat is after some time in MLB, but unless he flames out, the type of offense he will produce from that position will make him incredibly value from a team-building perspective.

My sense on the bat has cooled a little. I think it's a comfort thing, so the best thing that could happen for him is to string together 3-4 good days. I still don't really see what some seem to in terms of his decisions or him not recognizing pitches or anything. I think he's too tentative at times and then too aggressive or fooled at other times. I don't think it's an issue that gets fixed by going back to AAA, and in any case I think we need another 2 weeks of games before we start thinking about the best thing going forward.

It's nice to see him have lots of good things today after some really bad games lately. I'd like to see Shelton finally move him up some in the order, because I think he's going to get better opportunities if he hits near better players. Still, I expect him to take a seat tomorrow vs. Rogers, and it's probably not the worst call. Good game, give him a quick blow with no off days and hope he hits the ground running Tuesday, even though he'll have tough matchups against the Marlins' righties anyways.

I like his eye a lot actually. But I think the swing decisions are off. If you're facing a guy like Lauer and he grooves one down the middle on the 1st pitch, swing at it. You're not getting something better if you're down 0-1 left-on-left. I remember Polanco was often at his best when he went up there ready to hit the 1st pitch.

He is getting some abysmal umpiring against but he's not alone on this team in that regard.

The glove itself hasn't surprised me but the lack of throwing errors has been nice. I still worry that they could come in BUNCHES, especially if we stick a less talented 1B than Chavis there. It would be an interesting test to see him throw to Yoshi who is below average there (though I'm in no hurry to bring Yoshi back).

I wonder if Alvarez in AA gets a shot soon in some capacity with Reynolds apparently going down. He hits righty and is bashing the ball. Has been all year really.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I like his eye a lot actually. But I think the swing decisions are off. If you're facing a guy like Lauer and he grooves one down the middle on the 1st pitch, swing at it. You're not getting something better if you're down 0-1 left-on-left. I remember Polanco was often at his best when he went up there ready to hit the 1st pitch.

Yeah, I can see that, I guess I think of the approach as more of an upstream question than the swing decisions exactly. It just looks to me like he isn't completely comfortable vs MLB pitching, which is pretty natural for a young player, but I'm still confident he'll settle in. I think the longer-term x-factor is going to be how he approaches the bottom of the zone, which as they were pointing out earlier in the week, remains an issue for Judge.

I'd like to see Alvarez at some point but I think we're probably gonna keep playing it conservative with the 40-man roster, at least until (hopefully) some of the veterans are gone. I think you would need to call up an actual OF if Reynolds needs to go on the IL. Might be a good chance to get Swaggerty back, even though as you note we're already LH heavy.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Obviously Cruz hasn't been some dominant force but he's shown flashes and hasn't completely gone off the rails. He's got some work to do, but in comparison, Julio Rodriguez got off to a rough start in his first month.

In his first 20 games he was .205/.544

In Cruz first 20 games he's .213/681

Now of course Rodriguez is 2 years younger but both were top prospects coming into the year and I think we need to be patient and let the year unfold. Until he completely sucks his way off the field, just give him reps.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I honestly don't care about Cruz's bat nearly as much if he's playing the field well. I would be concerned if he was both struggling at the plate and also struggling in the field, but he looks like a legitimate everyday SS defensively.

He has 9 XBH in 20 games and is fielding the position extremely well at SS. The thing that is missing from his game right now is too many strikeouts and not enough walks/non-power hits.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

At the end of the day, he's still hitting at a 30+ HR pace over 162 games. It's still too early to look too closely at batted ball data, but that's not bad given the obvious adjustment period that's going on and the ABs where he gets beat pretty badly. I think it's encouraging that we're continuing to play him at shortstop and a good sign in terms of the priorities.

Just one week until the draft!

 

[ChaosAgent]

Yeah, I can see that, I guess I think of the approach as more of an upstream question than the swing decisions exactly. It just looks to me like he isn't completely comfortable vs MLB pitching, which is pretty natural for a young player, but I'm still confident he'll settle in. I think the longer-term x-factor is going to be how he approaches the bottom of the zone, which as they were pointing out earlier in the week, remains an issue for Judge.

I'd like to see Alvarez at some point but I think we're probably gonna keep playing it conservative with the 40-man roster, at least until (hopefully) some of the veterans are gone. I think you would need to call up an actual OF if Reynolds needs to go on the IL. Might be a good chance to get Swaggerty back, even though as you note we're already LH heavy.

I don't think it's any one thing with Cruz. MLB hitting is really hard and I'm not as confident as you that he can turn into a star hitter in this league. Which we've been fighting about for 4 months.
I still see his most likely outcome at the dish as a flawed lefty slugger who hits tanks and strikes out a lot. But that player can be valuable! Look at Tellez hitting in the middle of the lineup for Milwaukee. Pedro 2013. If Cruz offensively = Tellez this year I'd be pretty happy with how he panned out. He seems capable of adding a lot of value with his tools and the ability to play short. Or I have no doubt that if he were moved to OF eventually he'd be a plus guy in a corner OF spot. No question.

For zones specifically, that's where the comparisons to Judge end. Cruz is a right-handed player who swings from the left side. There is something mechanical in the right-hand dominant lefties where they can crush low pitching; that's what the "lefties like to golf it out" thing comes from. I don't worry much about Cruz's ability to hit low pitching. More like soft & away and lefties.

*Ultimately even if I think he settles into a run of the mill lefty slugger, he still retains a right-tail outcome possibility as one of the top hitters in the league. I totally believe in the ceiling; just not as confident he reaches it.

 

[ChaosAgent]

++++we are avoiding Alcantara against the Fish. Yay!!!!

----Lefties galore again. Again.

I didn't like Castillo's ABs today; we really need him to find it soon to win more than 1 against the Fish. Suwinski has also been pretty bad for a hot minute.

Lastly, if Reynolds has an oblique issue let's just bite the bullet and 10-day DL him with the AS break coming up. Yes I know our lineup will look comical without him and he's hitting well from both sides. But this injury needs time to heal. Rushing it back is short-sighted. Maybe give Marisnick his last opportunity for a little bit.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

So McDaniel has Prep Righty Dylan Lesko at #8 for this draft, thinks Walker Bueler is a comparable. That's the 2nd time I've seen him inside the top 10 now. He's a pretty advanced RHP with a potential ++ Change Up.

From Prospects Live:
"He’s considered one of the more polished arms in the class featuring an easy, fluid delivery with a four-pitch mix. Lesko’s mechanics are simple and repeatable. The heater has been up to 99, but more comfortably sits 93-96 most nights. Changeup is his best secondary, thrown with plenty of intent featuring fading action into the back foot of righties and darting away from lefties with significant depth and tumble. It’s got the makings of a legit double-plus weapon. He has a slider and a curveball, both of which flash plus at times with big spin rates and advanced command, though still inconsistent. He has very good feel of all four pitches and is more than willing to sequence backwards. Some believe Lesko represents the best prep pitching prospect the MLB Draft has seen since Hunter Greene or MacKenzie Gore. Lesko underwent Tommy John Surgery in April and will not pitch for his next team in 2022"

So there's been some speculation around recently, if the Bucs aren't super high on a position player @#4, Dylan Lesko at a discount could be our pick. I'm kind of intrigued, it's a shame he just had his TJ surgery only a few months ago. Wonder how the doctors might evaluate a medical condition like that at this early stage...

2022 MLB Draft - Top 600 Prospects — Prospects Live

This Top 500 really reinforces a few things we’ve always believed: Druw Jones is a cut above the rest. College hitters are good. Really good. And deep. The high school pitching in this class has the potential to be one of the stronger groups in recent memory. Termarr Johnson, Druw Jones, Jackson Hol

www.prospectslive.com

Sorry man, HS arm w/TJ surgery a few months ago means he's not pitching until at least next summer, in the FCL. It's not so much the surgery as it is the delay and the fact that this is a draft where you absolutely have a chance to get a legit top flight bat.

Circling back to this, I definitely agree that we can't go Lesko at #4, but somehow floating him down to #36 would be the kind of thing that would make me not get too up in arms if we don't nab who I want at #4.

I think there's likely no chance, because before Lesko got hurt, he was occasionally being floated as a top pick, which is reflected in McDaniel's rankings. However, the middle of the first round on always ends up being something of a crapshoot, so who knows what happens if we do have some decent muscle to flex.

I've settled on Green being at the top of my wish list, which likely doesn't give us too much of a shave. There's a lot to like about several other options, but I'd like to see us take the developmental risk and go for a star talent. While the two are in no way really related, Green has the kind of talent where you sign him, and then have him hitting the league when you're extended Reynolds is in his early 30s and maybe moving back to LF.

I think the draft is shaping up to be a pretty interesting watch, first for how our options and pick actually shakes out along with the top 10 or so in general, and then as a waiting game while watching for where guys like Lesko and Rocker go while rooting for an assorted number of guys to still be available for our second pick. If I'm not mistaken, comp round A is on Day 1, so we'll see two picks next Sunday.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Watching some game highlights: I'd rather have Roansy vs. Taillon right now. Taillon's stuff has either gone backwards or was always overrated. Either way, what a steal regardless of what happens with the other 3 guys.