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OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

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So McDaniel has Prep Righty Dylan Lesko at #8 for this draft, thinks Walker Bueler is a comparable. That's the 2nd time I've seen him inside the top 10 now. He's a pretty advanced RHP with a potential ++ Change Up.

From Prospects Live:
"He’s considered one of the more polished arms in the class featuring an easy, fluid delivery with a four-pitch mix. Lesko’s mechanics are simple and repeatable. The heater has been up to 99, but more comfortably sits 93-96 most nights. Changeup is his best secondary, thrown with plenty of intent featuring fading action into the back foot of righties and darting away from lefties with significant depth and tumble. It’s got the makings of a legit double-plus weapon. He has a slider and a curveball, both of which flash plus at times with big spin rates and advanced command, though still inconsistent. He has very good feel of all four pitches and is more than willing to sequence backwards. Some believe Lesko represents the best prep pitching prospect the MLB Draft has seen since Hunter Greene or MacKenzie Gore. Lesko underwent Tommy John Surgery in April and will not pitch for his next team in 2022"

So there's been some speculation around recently, if the Bucs aren't super high on a position player @#4, Dylan Lesko at a discount could be our pick. I'm kind of intrigued, it's a shame he just had his TJ surgery only a few months ago. Wonder how the doctors might evaluate a medical condition like that at this early stage...

www.prospectslive.com

2022 MLB Draft - Top 600 Prospects — Prospects Live

This Top 500 really reinforces a few things we’ve always believed: Druw Jones is a cut above the rest. College hitters are good. Really good. And deep. The high school pitching in this class has the potential to be one of the stronger groups in recent memory. Termarr Johnson, Druw Jones, Jackson Hol
www.prospectslive.com www.prospectslive.com
 
Sorry man, HS arm w/TJ surgery a few months ago means he's not pitching until at least next summer, in the FCL. It's not so much the surgery as it is the delay and the fact that this is a draft where you absolutely have a chance to get a legit top flight bat.
 
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ImporterExporter said:
Sorry man, HS arm w/TJ surgery a few months ago means he's not pitching until at least next summer, in the FCL. It's not so much the surgery as it is the delay and the fact that this is a draft where you absolutely have a chance to get a legit top flight bat.
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Yeah, that's kind of how I feel too. I've just been surprised to be running across it a bit lately and thought I'd throw it out here for debate.
 
ImporterExporter said:
Hayes is literally Kevin Newman now.

OPS doesn't lie

April - 840
May - 704
June - 571
July - 406

Been below the Mendoza line for almost 2 months now. Keep sending him out in the top 2 though DS.
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I don't always care for Brightside's negativity flooding tactic, but he's been right about Hayes all along.

For virtually Hayes' entire prospect career he has been regarded as the best defensive 3B of his generation with a questionable bat who might not hit at the major league level. 2020 was such a pleasant outlier that it maybe has reset our expectations out of whack. Especially with the weirdness of September ball itself and in 2020. If you remember, in 2019 Cole Tucker lit up the AFL...now he's outta here.

Hayes is a 3WAR player with every ounce of it coming from his glove. Don't really care what a bbref or whatever says in terms of his pacing. A replacement level hitter/gold glover at that position is 2-3WAR.

I'm still glad we have him, but I think he has benefitted from the expectations being so low for this team as a whole. Once they raise, as soon as next year, the fanbase is really going to start putting some heat on the guy if his offensive performance doesn't tick up. Like "wait, wasn't this guy supposed to be a franchise player? And now he's .225 with 5 homers in July?"
 
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DocEmrickSkitters said:
I don't always care for Brightside's negativity flooding tactic, but he's been right about Hayes all along.

For virtually Hayes' entire prospect career he has been regarded as the best defensive 3B of his generation with a questionable bat who might not hit at the major league level. 2020 was such a pleasant outlier that it maybe has reset our expectations out of whack. Especially with the weirdness of September ball itself and in 2020. If you remember, in 2019 Cole Tucker lit up the AFL...now he's outta here.

Hayes is a 3WAR player with every ounce of it coming from his glove. Don't really care what a bbref or whatever says in terms of his pacing. A replacement level hitter/gold glover at that position is 2-3WAR.

I'm still glad we have him, but I think he has benefitted from the expectations being so low for this team as a whole. Once they raise, as soon as next year, the fanbase is really going to start putting some heat on the guy if his offensive performance doesn't tick up. Like "wait, wasn't this guy supposed to be a franchise player? And now he's .225 with 5 homers in July?"
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And the thing is I/we aren't even expecting that September pace from 2020. That was an outlier, but it obviously did push the hype into another level certainly. I think the real disappointment is that he's simply gone to the other extreme, for a large portion of the past year. Now, he did miss significant time last year with the wrist, which was probably never right, so I didn't want to go after Hayes to much. You throw 2021 out the window and hope he settled into an 800ish OPS hitter, which he was doing the first month of the year, this year.

With his glove, you only need 800ish OPS to be in the upper echelon of 3B league wide. I don't think that projection after 2020 was outrageous by any means. Guy who hit for good average (280-300), some pop, mainly doubles, with a solid on base number as well given he can take a walk.

He's way out of whack right now. I'm by no means writing him off, but I just can't see how you continue hitting him at/near the top of a lineup. Even one as weak as ours.
 
ImporterExporter said:
And the thing is I/we aren't even expecting that September pace from 2020. That was an outlier, but it obviously did push the hype into another level certainly. I think the real disappointment is that he's simply gone to the other extreme, for a large portion of the past year. Now, he did miss significant time last year with the wrist, which was probably never right, so I didn't want to go after Hayes to much. You throw 2021 out the window and hope he settled into an 800ish OPS hitter, which he was doing the first month of the year, this year.

With his glove, you only need 800ish OPS to be in the upper echelon of 3B league wide. I don't think that projection after 2020 was outrageous by any means. Guy who hit for good average (280-300), some pop, mainly doubles, with a solid on base number as well given he can take a walk.

He's way out of whack right now. I'm by no means writing him off, but I just can't see how you continue hitting him at/near the top of a lineup. Even one as weak as ours.
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I just don't see an elite hitter when I look up there.

I see a guy who has had to work at it and has been coached by a lot of different sources/philosophies. And maybe now is trying to correct his "only ever go the other way" bias that was just absurd last year. And now he's a Master of None. I think he has significant holes in his swing where he struggles to barrel/drive the ball in particular directions and in the air. Guys like Castillo or Chavis or even Vogelbach...even when the results aren't there they look instinctive up there.

Hayes has a good eye but struggles to barrel baseballs with loft. Absent-minded thought...I don't know if he has considered using a shorter bat?
 


I'm glad to see Cruz continue to be pushed to adjust to MLB pitching (and sitting him tomorrow vs. Rogers makes more sense that Lauer, I think), but this way of handling Castillo is a little bit bizarre. My take on Cruz is that it's good to see him continuing to play shortstop everyday, and that this is the best decision going forward. It can be reevaluated in another few weeks if the offensive game doesn't arrive more consistently. He's struggling, but inconsistent playing time will exacerbate the issue.

It's a little bit unfortunate that the ASB might break up any momentum, but I am hoping that the hits start falling as he gets his footing. I am confident that the Ks will tick down a bit and the walks will come up. Lots of other top prospects struggle to settle in, and at the end of the day I do not see what good time against worst pitching would do, not to mention that the remainder of the season is worthless and should be used solely for assessing young talent where it exists.

For that reason, I am really skeptical about where Newman fits on this team. It's time to move on, and I can only hope that Cherington has engaged in some preliminary talks with teams and thinks he can flip Newman and Gamel for at least something. I assume that whatever happens with Newman, he's going to be non-tendered in the offseason and either find a good minor league deal with a decent team that wants him for inevitable depth, or else he'll find a major league deal somewhere because of the defense. Either way, the only reason he should be out there is if we think he can be traded and want to sort of do right by him as a veteran. If there's no deal to be had, he needs to be DFA'd in early August -- it's not personal, but it just does not make any sense for him to play when Castillo can, not to mention Marcano, Bae, and others, as we're all repeating ad nauseum.

I do not like seeing Castillo in the OF but maybe it's just a weird morning, as I can also somewhat see the logic to trying to have him learn on the fly. If he's a jack of all trades utility player, then having him able to cover the corner OF spots, 3B, SS, and 2B is pretty ideal. Since the games don't matter, I can kind of see it, though obviously it looks kind of weird when the time could be going to Swaggerty, Mitchell, or even Madris. I guess the same caveat here applies to Gamel -- he's been a nice stopgap find, and I think someone will probably take a flier on him at the deadline, but if not, same deal as Newman in early August.

The one thing I'm going to stubbornly still insist on is that we should not trade Quintana, but instead should sign him to an extension. His game plays very well in PNC Park, and I think the salary is still going to be relatively conservative even if he continues to perform this well all year. I'll only be hypocritical about this if there's actually a surprisingly good offer that comes through, as others in the thread have consistently thought all year. I still don't really see it, and I also don't see a world where Quintana wouldn't be one of the five best starters on the team next year. I guess if Nutting was prepared to pay Musgrove, then sure, cash in on whatever prospects you can and see what happens, but I can barely type this sentence without rolling my eyes.

Maybe there will be the right convergence of other injured pitchers and increased demand, in which case I'll happily eat crow. But otherwise, at least having him around makes for a slightly interesting Sunday afternoon to watch a game and root for us to surprisingly, even if meaninglessly, win a series on the road.
 
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DJ Spinoza said:


I'm glad to see Cruz continue to be pushed to adjust to MLB pitching (and sitting him tomorrow vs. Rogers makes more sense that Lauer, I think), but this way of handling Castillo is a little bit bizarre. My take on Cruz is that it's good to see him continuing to play shortstop everyday, and that this is the best decision going forward. It can be reevaluated in another few weeks if the offensive game doesn't arrive more consistently. He's struggling, but inconsistent playing time will exacerbate the issue.

It's a little bit unfortunate that the ASB might break up any momentum, but I am hoping that the hits start falling as he gets his footing. I am confident that the Ks will tick down a bit and the walks will come up. Lots of other top prospects struggle to settle in, and at the end of the day I do not see what good time against worst pitching would do, not to mention that the remainder of the season is worthless and should be used solely for assessing young talent where it exists.

For that reason, I am really skeptical about where Newman fits on this team. It's time to move on, and I can only hope that Cherington has engaged in some preliminary talks with teams and thinks he can flip Newman and Gamel for at least something. I assume that whatever happens with Newman, he's going to be non-tendered in the offseason and either find a good minor league deal with a decent team that wants him for inevitable depth, or else he'll find a major league deal somewhere because of the defense. Either way, the only reason he should be out there is if we think he can be traded and want to sort of do right by him as a veteran. If there's no deal to be had, he needs to be DFA'd in early August -- it's not personal, but it just does not make any sense for him to play when Castillo can, not to mention Marcano, Bae, and others, as we're all repeating ad nauseum.

I do not like seeing Castillo in the OF but maybe it's just a weird morning, as I can also somewhat see the logic to trying to have him learn on the fly. If he's a jack of all trades utility player, then having him able to cover the corner OF spots, 3B, SS, and 2B is pretty ideal. Since the games don't matter, I can kind of see it, though obviously it looks kind of weird when the time could be going to Swaggerty, Mitchell, or even Madris. I guess the same caveat here applies to Gamel -- he's been a nice stopgap find, and I think someone will probably take a flier on him at the deadline, but if not, same deal as Newman in early August.
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The team has like 4 players who can competently hit left-handed pitching. They are all in the lineup. They have decided to challenge Cruz and thus he is at SS.

Therefore either Castillo or Newman goes to the outfield.

It isn't hard to figure out.
 
Also, been watching some of the great Priester vs Gavin Williams duel. Williams was one of my favorite P coming out of last years draft after Rocker and he's been pitching very well so far but today he's been outdueled by Priester, in what has been his best start to date.

Just got through 4, has giving up 4 singles, 0 walks (1 hit batter) and 5 K's.

 
We need a W with Priester's rest of season IMO. It's important generally to convert on him breaking into MLB by late next year, and we're closer and closer to the point where you can look up and down the org and raise some questions about whatever processes have been put into place. Glad to see him getting results today.
 
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Cruz and Hayes looking good at the dish today.

Cruz's AB vs. Lauer was beautiful - to fight it off. Made that run happen (good hitting by Delay/Newman, too).

On Hayes' double, that might have been the best throw I've ever seen McCutchen make. Where was THAT arm?

I have Lauer in one of my fantasy leagues and probably dropping him now...he just looks uncomfortable up there now. Unsure of himself. And the command is pretty bad even if the stuff is above-average.
 
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Hayes leaning back into his oppo self. At this point we have to take it. He has phenomenal pop to right.

Dang, hard to root against a name as awesome as "Jandel Gustave"
 
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