OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

[DanielPlainview]

Rough inning for Underwood

 

[NewAgeOutlaw]

I like that Suwinski's last 2 bombs have been to center.

1. It proves he has pop to get it out when he doesn't pull it.

2. He realizes pitchers are going to work him outside with his dead pull approach and is sitting on that middle away pitch now. Smart stuff from a guy who was in AA to start the year.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Raise it!!!!!

 

[DanielPlainview]

This team is so weird lol

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I picked a hell of a game to miss -- managed to get some free seats immediately behind the Nats game for the Phillies, but caught only bits and pieces of the our game. Nice win top to bottom and getting another tomorrow would be a nice little boost.

@DJ Spinoza

Holy shit...

This is intriguing and definitely tracks. The Orioles just seem like the kind of team that would pull the trigger on him at 1.1. Or it's part of a song and dance to see how big of a discount they can get from him and Johnson before making a call.

I don't mean this to demean Jones, but he seems like a great all around prospect that's just a half-step shy of a true lock at 1.1. There are a lot of really above average tools, a premium position, and tons of projectability still -- pretty much a scout's dream, plus the ever-vaunted bloodlines. It's clear enough that if we had the first pick, I'd want Jones no questions asked, but not quite the slam dunk, once every several years type player. Just a really outstanding one who headlines a quality group, and given the nature of the draft and how it works, that's enough window for teams to start tinkering with scenarios for later.

Not at all fair to Collier, but I will say that Boddy being excited about him (in the replies under Doyle's tweet) makes me less enthused. I'm still Green, Johnson, Collier but the gaps between them aren't huge. With how things are shaping up, the first round of the draft should actually provide some intrigue this year.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Quintana boosted his trade value. I'll say it again, I'd like to think we can at least get a few lotto tickets for a few months of his time, then circle back in the winter. He'd obviously command a raise but not so much that we couldn't make a run ala Liriano. He'd be a nice mid rotation inning eater for a young team foe the next 3 years.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I'm absolutely in on Suwinski as an every day player. Obviously Cruz is the mega ceiling guy and rightfully so but Suwinski really has emerged as the biggest gain from the Cherington era as far as trade acquisitions goes (though Roansy is still the bigger ceiling of course) at the MLB level.

Really impressed by his growth as a hitter already in 2 months. He's hit his last 2 home runs to near dead center. He's not selling out quite as much now for pull side power as he was in the beginning. Really does get a lot of backspin on the ball. Plus he can take a walk. Well above average defensively to boot. Looks like a regular and honestly he's more than that if he's able to get to the 36 HR per year guy he's pacing right now over a full year. That's the type of bat you can comfortably put in the middle of a lineup, even without big average, due to the pop and walk rate. Arrow seems to be tracking up which is definitely exciting as he wasn't a top shelf prospect by any means.

On the team (less AB's then some of the guys ranked in front of him):

Runs - 3rd
Hits - 5th
2B - T2nd
HR - 2nd (1 back of Reynolds in nearly 100 fewer AB's)
RBI - T3
SLG - 1st
OPS - 1st
WAR = T2 (with Reynolds)

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, I'd like to see him trim the Ks some, but you can live with a rookie hovering around 30%. It's not ideal long-term, and when it ticks up, then that can be a red flag, but for a 23 year old who can keep making improvements, it's a solid start.

I also just caught the highlights of the game (as opposed to the grainy bad service bits I saw while at the game), and the smoothness of the double play Cruz turned should keep him stapled to shortstop going forward. Obviously Judge is not a burner, but the early evidence of perfectly fine defense is pretty strong at this point. He has the quickness, footwork, and fundamentals down firmly, and while the throws aren't 100% perfect, it's a stretch to even say he's been erratic at times. It's more that the occasional one isn't perfect, which is a far cry from him needing to move in the near future.

I've probably repeated this 5 times today, but Newman should just play a lot of games at 2B and only occasionally play SS if Cruz rests or DHs (Cruz should play 6/7 games). It really shouldn't even be that much of a priority. If you can't turn it into any trade opportunity, then move on and give the ABs to Marcano, Bae, and Castillo. There are 82 games left and barring injury, Cruz should probably play 70 of them as the starting short stop.

 

[ImporterExporter]

2022 MLB Draft - Top 600 Prospects — Prospects Live

This Top 500 really reinforces a few things we’ve always believed: Druw Jones is a cut above the rest. College hitters are good. Really good. And deep. The high school pitching in this class has the potential to be one of the stronger groups in recent memory. Termarr Johnson, Druw Jones, Jackson Hol

www.prospectslive.com

Happy prospect hunting.

 

[DanielPlainview]

Keller has done well this year managing bad outings - he hasn’t really had back to back disasters. They’ll likely need “Good Mitch” tonight against Severino

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Just from casual browsing over the past few weeks, here's my working wishlist:

#4: Green, Johnson, Collier // Parada, Lee (assuming Jones/Holliday out)
#36: Ferris, Prielipp, Hjerpe, Whisenhunt, Ford
#44: Same list as #36 really, hard to differentiate. Also Crawford, any falling pitcher, and on the batting side, Fabian, Brock Jones, Sal Stewart
#83: Barco, Messick, Henry Williams, Luke Gold

I've done nothing more than click around, so heavy grain of salt. There are a lot of pitchers who should be in play at #36 and #44, and that seems to be the consensus of what lots of fans want as well as a good idea in general. I think there might also be some inkling of a possibility that we'd force the local SS Cole Young down to #36, though he seems like he could be a threat to go in the middle of the first, so I'd put that closer to a long shot like Rocker.

I distinctly remember last year that Solometo was an appealing name for the second pick, and White was also thought of as a good upside play given the multi-sport situation. I don't think Chandler was even considered because he was assumed to be unsignable or necessary to take in the first round, but of course probably the major coup of the Davis pick was having first round money for him.

Seems like simply put, a great outcome would be two good upside pitchers at #36 and #44. In that sense, names I've eyed at #83 are more like college guys who should be pretty signable, as the only way we make a really big push would be if we can somehow shave 1.5M or so off slot, and I think it's probably unlikely especially now that Collier has late buzz. It's impossible to really know in advance, as I also distinctly remember that there was little to no clarity on exactly the extent of the shave Davis would get until the pick actually happened.

While it's overzealous to give full carte blanche to the front office, with draft stuff, I am confident that whatever their move is will be extremely calculated -- i.e., if we get X shave from #4, it will be with the full intention of getting xyz player at x price at #36, along with options for #44 and #83, etc.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I still remain skeptical but there's no denying that he's put up solid overall results and is dirt cheap. The Jays being on him is a surprise, since I just don't know how he'd fare consistently in the AL East, but everybody always needs pitching at the deadline.

 

[Empoleon8771]

When the Pirates trade Quintana, I really hope they target more of a Frazier type of return that has near MLB ready pitchers instead of just getting pure 17 year old lottery tickets.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I still remain skeptical but there's no denying that he's put up solid overall results and is dirt cheap. The Jays being on him is a surprise, since I just don't know how he'd fare consistently in the AL East, but everybody always needs pitching at the deadline.

Comfortably #2/#3 numbers, lefty, as you said, dirt cheap. SP will always fetch a bit more.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

It's hard to ballpark for me, mainly because I just don't believe it's sustainable / that he's a playoff weapon in any sense, but those might be slightly unfair tags and they might also be irrelevant depending on how things play out now with 3 WCs.

I do think @Empoleon8771 is definitely right that it's when and not if. There is a part of me that really just wants to see him ride it out for the best watchable baseball/best finish possible, but even with him, this team is likely not making much of an improvement over last year. It's also a truism to say that if the trade return is worth it, you have to deal him, which is basically all I can really muster.

The return itself is a giant question mark. I get not wanting to see lotto tickets, but from an organizational standpoint, acquiring more very young talent that you like is potentially wiser given that it doesn't create more of a 40-man roster crunch. That said, if a team had an MLB ready #5 starter type or something like that who might also have a projection as more of a meh middle relief guy, given the pitching depth, that might be a decent move, even if unsexy, and maybe things break right and you have another cheap #4-5 guy going forward.

All this said, though, I do think there's still something to finishing out the season as strongly as possible as an indication to the fans that the planned direction is now clearly up (and to add more) than wait-and-see, who knows etc. Yes, we could trade him for the assets and still make those same decisions that we need to, but there's something to the fated attitude around trading him that's a self-fulfilling prophecy to me. It makes me too worried that next year, we find another Anderson/Quintana type and don't do a whole lot on top of that, and then it's rinse and repeat unless multiple players really step forward in huge ways.

 

[Gallatin]

Just from casual browsing over the past few weeks, here's my working wishlist:

#4: Green, Johnson, Collier // Parada, Lee (assuming Jones/Holliday out)
#36: Ferris, Prielipp, Hjerpe, Whisenhunt, Ford
#44: Same list as #36 really, hard to differentiate. Also Crawford, any falling pitcher, and on the batting side, Fabian, Brock Jones, Sal Stewart
#83: Barco, Messick, Henry Williams, Luke Gold

I've done nothing more than click around, so heavy grain of salt. There are a lot of pitchers who should be in play at #36 and #44, and that seems to be the consensus of what lots of fans want as well as a good idea in general. I think there might also be some inkling of a possibility that we'd force the local SS Cole Young down to #36, though he seems like he could be a threat to go in the middle of the first, so I'd put that closer to a long shot like Rocker.

I distinctly remember last year that Solometo was an appealing name for the second pick, and White was also thought of as a good upside play given the multi-sport situation. I don't think Chandler was even considered because he was assumed to be unsignable or necessary to take in the first round, but of course probably the major coup of the Davis pick was having first round money for him.

Seems like simply put, a great outcome would be two good upside pitchers at #36 and #44. In that sense, names I've eyed at #83 are more like college guys who should be pretty signable, as the only way we make a really big push would be if we can somehow shave 1.5M or so off slot, and I think it's probably unlikely especially now that Collier has late buzz. It's impossible to really know in advance, as I also distinctly remember that there was little to no clarity on exactly the extent of the shave Davis would get until the pick actually happened.

While it's overzealous to give full carte blanche to the front office, with draft stuff, I am confident that whatever their move is will be extremely calculated -- i.e., if we get X shave from #4, it will be with the full intention of getting xyz player at x price at #36, along with options for #44 and #83, etc.

Assistant General Manager Steve Sanders replaced Kyle Stark in 19, and handles Draft Strategy for the Bucs.

Many in the organization thought he was the best in the business - before the 21 Draft which he strategized so perfectly...

The 2nd article's mostly about Draft Process IMO, and a small look into to Sanders' world. It's a lengthy article though, about a team and a player we're not really that interested in so...

Future General Managers in the Pirates’ Front Office

pirates.pittsburghbaseball.com

'You think they're icing that?': Inside how the Blue Jays drafted Alek Manoah

The Blue Jays' Alek Manoah, a kid who believed in himself and forced others to believe in him.

theathletic.com

 

[ImporterExporter]

I've said the right answer is trade him now when his value is clearly higher than it was 3 months ago. He goes to a contender for a few months. Circle back around this fall/winter and offer him something like 3/30-35.

 

[ImporterExporter]

 

[Gallatin]

It's hard to ballpark for me, mainly because I just don't believe it's sustainable / that he's a playoff weapon in any sense, but those might be slightly unfair tags and they might also be irrelevant depending on how things play out now with 3 WCs.

I do think @Empoleon8771 is definitely right that it's when and not if. There is a part of me that really just wants to see him ride it out for the best watchable baseball/best finish possible, but even with him, this team is likely not making much of an improvement over last year. It's also a truism to say that if the trade return is worth it, you have to deal him, which is basically all I can really muster.

The return itself is a giant question mark. I get not wanting to see lotto tickets, but from an organizational standpoint, acquiring more very young talent that you like is potentially wiser given that it doesn't create more of a 40-man roster crunch. That said, if a team had an MLB ready #5 starter type or something like that who might also have a projection as more of a meh middle relief guy, given the pitching depth, that might be a decent move, even if unsexy, and maybe things break right and you have another cheap #4-5 guy going forward.

All this said, though, I do think there's still something to finishing out the season as strongly as possible as an indication to the fans that the planned direction is now clearly up (and to add more) than wait-and-see, who knows etc. Yes, we could trade him for the assets and still make those same decisions that we need to, but there's something to the fated attitude around trading him that's a self-fulfilling prophecy to me. It makes me too worried that next year, we find another Anderson/Quintana type and don't do a whole lot on top of that, and then it's rinse and repeat unless multiple players really step forward in huge ways.

Jack Suwinski and Oneil Cruz were Lottery Tickets. Food for thought.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Jack Suwinski and Oneil Cruz were Lottery Tickets. Food for thought.

Eh for every Cruz, you get 50 guys who never make it beyond A ball.

I also don't really think Suwinski was much of a lottery ticket, he was someone who was crushing at a decently high minor league level. He was OPSing .949 in AA last year in the Padres system, I don't really think that's much of a "lottery ticket". That's what I think BC should be targeting in a return for Quintana, guys performing well at the higher minor league levels.

 

[Gallatin]

Eh for every Cruz, you get 50 guys who never make it beyond A ball.

I also don't really think Suwinski was much of a lottery ticket, he was someone who was crushing at a decently high minor league level. He was OPSing .949 in AA last year in the Padres system, I don't really think that's much of a "lottery ticket". That's what I think BC should be targeting in a return for Quintana, guys performing well at the higher minor league levels.

That strong 3 months last year was the very 1st time Suwinski showed anything. He was a throw-in on Marcano, which we KNOW the Front Office really really wanted. So yeah, he was a lottery ticket.

Personally - I believe the Bucs purchased desire & work ethic with Jack. That's what they invested in. He's going to keep getting better for years.

And isn't the whole point of a lottery ticket - that you need a bunch of them to win? I'm just suggesting we continue to buy Lottery tickets, because they HAVE worked.

I don't really get you disputing this one. Other than the reality that I can be just as annoying in my opinions as anyone, not seeing the reason...

 

[Empoleon8771]

That strong 3 months last year was the very 1st time he showed anything. He was a throw-in on Marcano, which we KNOW the Front Office really really wanted. So yeah, he was a lottery ticket.

Personally - I believe the Bucs purchased desire & work ethic with Suwinski. That's what they invested in. He's going to keep getting better for years.

And isn't the whole point of a lottery ticket - that you need a bunch of them to win? I'm just suggesting we continue to buy Lottery tickets, because they HAVE worked.

I don't really get you disputing this one. Other than the reality that I can be just as annoying in my opinions as anyone, not seeing the reason...

I guess we just have a different definition of a lottery ticket. To me, a "lottery ticket" is more of a super young prospect in the deep minors that we'll have to wait years on seeing. I don't really think a guy mashing in AA is really a "lottery ticket".

Suwinski is the kind of prospect I'd want back in a Quintana trade: a prospect doing really well in the high minors that could push for a MLB spot in the near future.

Also:

The Pirates were the only team with 5 in the top-50, but I'm also not entirely sure why Cruz is only rated 20th.

 

[Gallatin]

I guess we just have a different definition of a lottery ticket. To me, a "lottery ticket" is more of a super young prospect in the deep minors that we'll have to wait years on seeing. I don't really think a guy mashing in AA is really a "lottery ticket".

Suwinski is the kind of prospect I'd want back in a Quintana trade: a prospect doing really well in the high minors that could push for a MLB spot in the near future.

I don't put age restrictions on my tickets - rather - they're players that weren't highly valued at the time of trade, and didn't create excitement or buzz. Players that weren't expected to make it.

 

[The Grim Reaper]

What's going on, rain delay?

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I tend to think of the expression more with young players who have tons of development ahead of them (like Cruz, or Escotto to use a different example), but there's no reason it can't be used for the more fringy guys on lists who are already towards the upper minors.

For me, a big part of the question is roster management. There's a lot of filler on the 40-man, but in the offseason, a fair number of prospects will need to be added, and to some extent decisions will need to be made about who factors in and to what extent in 2023, since you can't just have it chock full of prospects.

By definition, the potential for a nice payoff on an expiring contract is tempting. I'd just as soon see us commit to him, making it easier to try and sign him as a veteran #3/4 this offseason. That's still possible if we send him out, but maybe there's more interest if we don't. I don't know -- I don't really have a stock answer, but I'm somewhat cautious in what I'm expecting, and I think subtracting the veteran on the staff leaves open more potential for the bottom to really fall out in the final two months of the season.