OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win
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The Grim Reaper
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DanielPlainview
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This inning is on Shelton. Keller was out of gas last inning. Sending him out there for the third time through the order is straight dumb.
ImporterExporter
"You're a boring old man"
Yoshi shouldn't have a glove. Or probably a bat, for that matter.
ChaosAgent
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We hung with them for a while. Cruz having a marvelous game so far.
It continues to be dispiriting how even when Keller looks dominant the results are so mediocre. Don't know if he ever gets to above-average.
The Yankees play great baseball. I realize they are the evil empire but they are easy to root for.
It continues to be dispiriting how even when Keller looks dominant the results are so mediocre. Don't know if he ever gets to above-average.
The Yankees play great baseball. I realize they are the evil empire but they are easy to root for.
DJ Spinoza
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- Aug 7, 2003
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The positive spin on this getting out of hand is that we might avoid having to see Holmes dominate us at least.
We got the split, some solid individual signs from different guys. Huge road trip ahead -- if we can not play down to the Reds, and maybe surprise the Brewers, it might be an ok stretch with a ton of games vs. the Marlins and Rockies. Hopefully we just see better baseball all around.
We got the split, some solid individual signs from different guys. Huge road trip ahead -- if we can not play down to the Reds, and maybe surprise the Brewers, it might be an ok stretch with a ton of games vs. the Marlins and Rockies. Hopefully we just see better baseball all around.
ChaosAgent
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The Marlins pitching will obliterate us, but I'm looking forward to it I guess.
DanielPlainview
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DJ Spinoza
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Not ideal to just churn through pitchers with this game out of hand and a ton of games coming up with no off days. Less than stellar debut for Banuelos -- would have been nice for him to clean up these last two garbage innings.
At least we took the split.
At least we took the split.
ChaosAgent
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Getting tired of position players pitching. Teams should have the option to forfeit.
ImporterExporter
"You're a boring old man"
DanielPlainview
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Gallatin
A Banksy of Goonism
I get to talk baseball now and then with one of NH's Scouts, recently retired. I'm going to copy and paste the conversation here again. This one I'm not so worried about protecting a reputation, so I'll leave it up.
Gallatin
A Banksy of Goonism
Me:
Are you following the Minors enough this year to have any opinions on the Bucs development program? I mostly follow that stuff through Tim Williams and a couple of former Bucs coaches.
Also curious on anything on the pitchers? Personally I see a lot of guys with tools struggling away at their craft, a lot of guys that could move up quick if the light turns on, but...
Him:
Hope your summer is treating you nice, always a blast to talk baseball with you.
happy to talk baseball, especially when it's not complaining about which Pirates will be future Yankees.
Right now it's early doors but I'm still moderately skeptical about the player development so far, I'm particularly displeased with the plate discipline right now. You look at a guy like Fraizer, who I never really liked anyway, and he's just up there flailing with no plan. And he should be much more advanced than that.
Got to agree with you with the arms too, it's a lot of toolsy guys who just haven't fully switched the light on yet. Jared Jones in particular was a guy that I thought was a slam dunk to have a big year and he just can't put it together right now. Not to mention a few guys like Thomas and Malone who are completely stuck in the mud and might never even make it to the bigs, even out of the pen.
It's not all doom and gloom of course, Bolton has bounced back nicely and McGregor has too, Priester is in AA finally and not overmatched, Burrows looks like a nice prospect, and down in Bradenton Solometo and Carolos Jimenez look lively. It's just that I don't see a ton of top end potential out of any of those guys except for maybe Solometo. They're mostly just in the "nice guys to have around" column
And my summer, as they tend to do now, is just flying right by. Hope that you're enjoying your's as well!
Me:
Yeah if he stays healthy I expect Jones to put it together at some point over the next several years and become a 2/3 starter.
Malone's Curveball is really nuts - hope that guy figures things out someday.
Solo has the best upside amongst our A-Ball pitchers IMO. I'm 100% sold on the mind, heart, and work ethic of that kid. He seems to have a great body to go with it, and has had great coaching for several years leading up to the Draft.
If Jimenez ever develops League Average command he'll be something very nice. Not sure if that frames fully grown out though...
Chandler is lighting up the FCL. He's regularly throwing multi-inning no hitters with high BB & high K rates.
With the bat I think he's OPSing over 1300 at the moment. Guy hardly played before getting drafted, so I'm quite keen on leaving him their to focus on the basics this year.
I'm super intrigued by Brayon Bishop's tools.
And I'm still a Chen guy, like the tools and the mind. Think he's going to end up tunneling a couple pitches up high, and couple different pitches down low. Two distinct arm slots.
Him:
Yeah, when you have Jones' arsenal you almost have no choice to figure things out eventually. I'm less bullish on Malone but he definitely still has elite reliever upside if he can put it together.
Agree with you that I love Solometo's makeup and was very stoked that he fell to us, watching him do what he's doing in Bradenton at only 19 is really impressive...I'm very excited for him to move up the ladder.
I kind of dismissed Jimenez coming into this season because his metrics in the Complex league were only so-so and his frame was a worry but he's definitely come on big time this year. He's definitely put on some good weight and his fastball/changeup combination is devastating for a 19 year old. You're right about the command and I think that limits his ceiling but I think that he can stick in the rotation.
I definitely buried the lede a bit by leaving off Chandler but honestly it's because that I really don't know what to make of him right now. He's absolutely dominating the Complex right now but I also think that he's a little bit too advanced of a pitcher for that level, it's a bit of the Po-Yu Chen effect, who I know that you said that you like, where I can't take those numbers too seriously because he's just mentally advanced for the competition. He's definitely worth getting excited about though because the tools are real...last year's draft was a total heist.
Speaking of, I like Bishop too and I am surprised to see him left off of our prospect lists. He's very toolsy and looks like a plus defender with the frame to add a ton of muscle.
Me:
Since pretty much his 2nd week in the Bigs, I've been super impressed by Jack Suwinski, and he makes me want to double down on one of your development complaints.
Kid can run, can throw, and looks good to great at every Outfield position. In fact the first thing that I noticed about Jack was that he looked more comfortable working around the Clemente Wall than any Pirate I can remember. He get's good jumps, and has near elite closing speed.
The second thing I noticed about Suwinski is that he has a hell of an eye in the batter's box. He works deep into counts regularly, produces 2 strike hits, and 10 pitch BB's. Lately most of his HR's have been with 2 strikes.
Jack's got an elite eye, and a sound hitting process. The dude is just so focused for every pitch - deep breaths to clear his mind constantly. He clearly has Elite work ethic and focus.
Anyway the thing I noticed about Suwinski is the moment he became a Pirate, his walk rate dropped 20%. Followed this year by another 30% fall. I'm so suspicious, and so confused. Isn't this exactly the opposite of what the Pirates are trying to accomplish when they train their hitters? Aren't they training them to take walks? To work a count into a favorable position? To work over a Pitcher?
I just don't get it...
Him:
I think, with Suwinski, that he's personally decided that three true outcomes are overrated and that two true outcomes are better. And, at least in his case, he might be right. Check out his 3 ball splits on the year, especially on a full count, they're totally nuts so I won't spoil them for you.
Me:
So I looked up Suwinsky's statistics in 3-0, 3-1 and 3-2 counts. It's totally nuts....
Jack's quite close to having a 2000 OPS in three ball counts.
www.fangraphs.com
Are you following the Minors enough this year to have any opinions on the Bucs development program? I mostly follow that stuff through Tim Williams and a couple of former Bucs coaches.
Also curious on anything on the pitchers? Personally I see a lot of guys with tools struggling away at their craft, a lot of guys that could move up quick if the light turns on, but...
Him:
Hope your summer is treating you nice, always a blast to talk baseball with you.
happy to talk baseball, especially when it's not complaining about which Pirates will be future Yankees.
Right now it's early doors but I'm still moderately skeptical about the player development so far, I'm particularly displeased with the plate discipline right now. You look at a guy like Fraizer, who I never really liked anyway, and he's just up there flailing with no plan. And he should be much more advanced than that.
Got to agree with you with the arms too, it's a lot of toolsy guys who just haven't fully switched the light on yet. Jared Jones in particular was a guy that I thought was a slam dunk to have a big year and he just can't put it together right now. Not to mention a few guys like Thomas and Malone who are completely stuck in the mud and might never even make it to the bigs, even out of the pen.
It's not all doom and gloom of course, Bolton has bounced back nicely and McGregor has too, Priester is in AA finally and not overmatched, Burrows looks like a nice prospect, and down in Bradenton Solometo and Carolos Jimenez look lively. It's just that I don't see a ton of top end potential out of any of those guys except for maybe Solometo. They're mostly just in the "nice guys to have around" column
And my summer, as they tend to do now, is just flying right by. Hope that you're enjoying your's as well!
Me:
Yeah if he stays healthy I expect Jones to put it together at some point over the next several years and become a 2/3 starter.
Malone's Curveball is really nuts - hope that guy figures things out someday.
Solo has the best upside amongst our A-Ball pitchers IMO. I'm 100% sold on the mind, heart, and work ethic of that kid. He seems to have a great body to go with it, and has had great coaching for several years leading up to the Draft.
If Jimenez ever develops League Average command he'll be something very nice. Not sure if that frames fully grown out though...
Chandler is lighting up the FCL. He's regularly throwing multi-inning no hitters with high BB & high K rates.
With the bat I think he's OPSing over 1300 at the moment. Guy hardly played before getting drafted, so I'm quite keen on leaving him their to focus on the basics this year.
I'm super intrigued by Brayon Bishop's tools.
And I'm still a Chen guy, like the tools and the mind. Think he's going to end up tunneling a couple pitches up high, and couple different pitches down low. Two distinct arm slots.
Him:
Yeah, when you have Jones' arsenal you almost have no choice to figure things out eventually. I'm less bullish on Malone but he definitely still has elite reliever upside if he can put it together.
Agree with you that I love Solometo's makeup and was very stoked that he fell to us, watching him do what he's doing in Bradenton at only 19 is really impressive...I'm very excited for him to move up the ladder.
I kind of dismissed Jimenez coming into this season because his metrics in the Complex league were only so-so and his frame was a worry but he's definitely come on big time this year. He's definitely put on some good weight and his fastball/changeup combination is devastating for a 19 year old. You're right about the command and I think that limits his ceiling but I think that he can stick in the rotation.
I definitely buried the lede a bit by leaving off Chandler but honestly it's because that I really don't know what to make of him right now. He's absolutely dominating the Complex right now but I also think that he's a little bit too advanced of a pitcher for that level, it's a bit of the Po-Yu Chen effect, who I know that you said that you like, where I can't take those numbers too seriously because he's just mentally advanced for the competition. He's definitely worth getting excited about though because the tools are real...last year's draft was a total heist.
Speaking of, I like Bishop too and I am surprised to see him left off of our prospect lists. He's very toolsy and looks like a plus defender with the frame to add a ton of muscle.
Me:
Since pretty much his 2nd week in the Bigs, I've been super impressed by Jack Suwinski, and he makes me want to double down on one of your development complaints.
Kid can run, can throw, and looks good to great at every Outfield position. In fact the first thing that I noticed about Jack was that he looked more comfortable working around the Clemente Wall than any Pirate I can remember. He get's good jumps, and has near elite closing speed.
The second thing I noticed about Suwinski is that he has a hell of an eye in the batter's box. He works deep into counts regularly, produces 2 strike hits, and 10 pitch BB's. Lately most of his HR's have been with 2 strikes.
Jack's got an elite eye, and a sound hitting process. The dude is just so focused for every pitch - deep breaths to clear his mind constantly. He clearly has Elite work ethic and focus.
Anyway the thing I noticed about Suwinski is the moment he became a Pirate, his walk rate dropped 20%. Followed this year by another 30% fall. I'm so suspicious, and so confused. Isn't this exactly the opposite of what the Pirates are trying to accomplish when they train their hitters? Aren't they training them to take walks? To work a count into a favorable position? To work over a Pitcher?
I just don't get it...
Him:
I think, with Suwinski, that he's personally decided that three true outcomes are overrated and that two true outcomes are better. And, at least in his case, he might be right. Check out his 3 ball splits on the year, especially on a full count, they're totally nuts so I won't spoil them for you.
Me:
So I looked up Suwinsky's statistics in 3-0, 3-1 and 3-2 counts. It's totally nuts....
Jack's quite close to having a 2000 OPS in three ball counts.
Jack Suwinski - 0 Batting Splits | FanGraphs Baseball
Jack Suwinski 0 batting splits for Major League, Minor League, and postseason baseball
Last edited:
ImporterExporter
"You're a boring old man"
Mock: Top 5 shuffle as Rocker enters 1st round
Most of the top prospects in the Draft had their seasons end a month or so ago, but three potential first-round arms have affected their stock in the two weeks since my last first-round projection. On Saturday night, teams received medical records pertaining to right-hander Kumar Rocker and...
Callis has us going Johnson. Mentions that teams are comfortable with what they saw from Rocker and he'll go in the back half of the 1st round.
DJ Spinoza
Registered User
- Aug 7, 2003
- 25,966
- 4,536
I like the news in that blurb from Callis that Johnson and Collier are in strong consideration. I also wonder two further things: 1) could Lee's stock be high enough that he is not really going to come at any more of a discount over Collier and Johnson? That might be wishful thinking, but he still seems in play at #1 as a real outside shot, and if he's there when we're picking, then college bats seem in play at all the picks right after us, so maybe the slot discount will be hard to predict for anyone.
2) If Green might also slide down a few picks, could he also perhaps come at a slot saving discount? He often seems to be mocked to the Nats, but if he knows for example that they are taking another prep guy, Parada, or Lee over him, then maybe he's also willing to cut a slight deal?
Coming from an athlete family, you would assume that Green has the financial comfort to create some leverage, but I still think for the most part, going full nuclear and re-entering the draft is extremely risky. With that said, outside of a small handful of picks, it often ends up being slot value or fairly close to it. You have to be in the right scenario and with the right group of picks for a big shave, and though it seems like the ordering on most of the non-Jones/Holliday players is really all over the place, I am not expecting too huge of a slot savings no matter who we pick.
I think the upper end might be 1, maybe 1.5M, which can still buy a lot of leverage for the second pick given our overall pool. If you can push it just a little over 1.5, then together with the 5% overage that's allowed, you would have ~2M to play around with, not counting further possible shaves with picks in rounds 3/4/5-10.
In any case, I have yet to see anything really connecting us to Green, but if his slot price is basically the same as Johnson/Collier/Lee, then I'd really love to take that big swing on the upside.
2) If Green might also slide down a few picks, could he also perhaps come at a slot saving discount? He often seems to be mocked to the Nats, but if he knows for example that they are taking another prep guy, Parada, or Lee over him, then maybe he's also willing to cut a slight deal?
Coming from an athlete family, you would assume that Green has the financial comfort to create some leverage, but I still think for the most part, going full nuclear and re-entering the draft is extremely risky. With that said, outside of a small handful of picks, it often ends up being slot value or fairly close to it. You have to be in the right scenario and with the right group of picks for a big shave, and though it seems like the ordering on most of the non-Jones/Holliday players is really all over the place, I am not expecting too huge of a slot savings no matter who we pick.
I think the upper end might be 1, maybe 1.5M, which can still buy a lot of leverage for the second pick given our overall pool. If you can push it just a little over 1.5, then together with the 5% overage that's allowed, you would have ~2M to play around with, not counting further possible shaves with picks in rounds 3/4/5-10.
In any case, I have yet to see anything really connecting us to Green, but if his slot price is basically the same as Johnson/Collier/Lee, then I'd really love to take that big swing on the upside.
Coastal Kev
There will be "I told you so's" Bet on it
What I take from this post: I have watched the Pirates 2 games this season and I see the same things as a former scout does regarding player development.Me:
Are you following the Minors enough this year to have any opinions on the Bucs development program? I mostly follow that stuff through Tim Williams and a couple of former Bucs coaches.
Also curious on anything on the pitchers? Personally I see a lot of guys with tools struggling away at their craft, a lot of guys that could move up quick if the light turns on, but...
Him:
Hope your summer is treating you nice, always a blast to talk baseball with you.
happy to talk baseball, especially when it's not complaining about which Pirates will be future Yankees.
Right now it's early doors but I'm still moderately skeptical about the player development so far, I'm particularly displeased with the plate discipline right now. You look at a guy like Fraizer, who I never really liked anyway, and he's just up there flailing with no plan. And he should be much more advanced than that.
Got to agree with you with the arms too, it's a lot of toolsy guys who just haven't fully switched the light on yet. Jared Jones in particular was a guy that I thought was a slam dunk to have a big year and he just can't put it together right now. Not to mention a few guys like Thomas and Malone who are completely stuck in the mud and might never even make it to the bigs, even out of the pen.
It's not all doom and gloom of course, Bolton has bounced back nicely and McGregor has too, Priester is in AA finally and not overmatched, Burrows looks like a nice prospect, and down in Bradenton Solometo and Carolos Jimenez look lively. It's just that I don't see a ton of top end potential out of any of those guys except for maybe Solometo. They're mostly just in the "nice guys to have around" column
And my summer, as they tend to do now, is just flying right by. Hope that you're enjoying your's as well!
Me:
Yeah if he stays healthy I expect Jones to put it together at some point over the next several years and become a 2/3 starter.
Malone's Curveball is really nuts - hope that guy figures things out someday.
Solo has the best upside amongst our A-Ball pitchers IMO. I'm 100% sold on the mind, heart, and work ethic of that kid. He seems to have a great body to go with it, and has had great coaching for several years leading up to the Draft.
If Jimenez ever develops League Average command he'll be something very nice. Not sure if that frames fully grown out though...
Chandler is lighting up the FCL. He's regularly throwing multi-inning no hitters with high BB & high K rates.
With the bat I think he's OPSing over 1300 at the moment. Guy hardly played before getting drafted, so I'm quite keen on leaving him their to focus on the basics this year.
I'm super intrigued by Brayon Bishop's tools.
And I'm still a Chen guy, like the tools and the mind. Think he's going to end up tunneling a couple pitches up high, and couple different pitches down low. Two distinct arm slots.
Him:
Yeah, when you have Jones' arsenal you almost have no choice to figure things out eventually. I'm less bullish on Malone but he definitely still has elite reliever upside if he can put it together.
Agree with you that I love Solometo's makeup and was very stoked that he fell to us, watching him do what he's doing in Bradenton at only 19 is really impressive...I'm very excited for him to move up the ladder.
I kind of dismissed Jimenez coming into this season because his metrics in the Complex league were only so-so and his frame was a worry but he's definitely come on big time this year. He's definitely put on some good weight and his fastball/changeup combination is devastating for a 19 year old. You're right about the command and I think that limits his ceiling but I think that he can stick in the rotation.
I definitely buried the lede a bit by leaving off Chandler but honestly it's because that I really don't know what to make of him right now. He's absolutely dominating the Complex right now but I also think that he's a little bit too advanced of a pitcher for that level, it's a bit of the Po-Yu Chen effect, who I know that you said that you like, where I can't take those numbers too seriously because he's just mentally advanced for the competition. He's definitely worth getting excited about though because the tools are real...last year's draft was a total heist.
Speaking of, I like Bishop too and I am surprised to see him left off of our prospect lists. He's very toolsy and looks like a plus defender with the frame to add a ton of muscle.
Me:
Since pretty much his 2nd week in the Bigs, I've been super impressed by Jack Suwinski, and he makes me want to double down on one of your development complaints.
Kid can run, can throw, and looks good to great at every Outfield position. In fact the first thing that I noticed about Jack was that he looked more comfortable working around the Clemente Wall than any Pirate I can remember. He get's good jumps, and has near elite closing speed.
The second thing I noticed about Suwinski is that he has a hell of an eye in the batter's box. He works deep into counts regularly, produces 2 strike hits, and 10 pitch BB's. Lately most of his HR's have been with 2 strikes.
Jack's got an elite eye, and a sound hitting process. The dude is just so focused for every pitch - deep breaths to clear his mind constantly. He clearly has Elite work ethic and focus.
Anyway the thing I noticed about Suwinski is the moment he became a Pirate, his walk rate dropped 20%. Followed this year by another 30% fall. I'm so suspicious, and so confused. Isn't this exactly the opposite of what the Pirates are trying to accomplish when they train their hitters? Aren't they training them to take walks? To work a count into a favorable position? To work over a Pitcher?
I just don't get it...
Him:
I think, with Suwinski, that he's personally decided that three true outcomes are overrated and that two true outcomes are better. And, at least in his case, he might be right. Check out his 3 ball splits on the year, especially on a full count, they're totally nuts so I won't spoil them for you.
Me:
So I looked up Suwinsky's statistics in 3-0, 3-1 and 3-2 counts. It's totally nuts....
Jack's quite close to having a 2000 OPS in three ball counts.
Jack Suwinski - 0 Batting Splits | FanGraphs Baseball
Jack Suwinski 0 batting splits for Major League, Minor League, and postseason baseball
If you're not going to spend on the players, you would think at the very least you would overpay for the best coaching money could buy.
ImporterExporter
"You're a boring old man"
If we get 1 of Green/Johnson/Collier, I'll be happy with that outcome. Lee is the only college player I won't be upset about as he's clearly advanced as a player and has hit extremely well everywhere he's gone.
I'm about 98% sure that our pick is going to be one of those 4 guys.
DJ Spinoza
Registered User
- Aug 7, 2003
- 25,966
- 4,536
Honestly I think I like Parada more than Lee if we go college. It might be too weird of a message to send after drafting Davis 1.1, but having one be a 1B RH power hitter would fit well with the team that's looking to come together. If Lee hits for average as well as good pop, that will play in some capacity and you can figure out positions later, but part of me feels like if we don't have the MI situation resolved in the next 1.5 years or so, we're not going to be in good shape.
Realistically, I think with the current group we have, we should be able to produce starters at both positions as well as a relevant player in a corner OF spot, along with 1 or 2 decent fallback options in AAA for depth purposes. There's just nothing about Lee that jumps out at me, but if he's the pick, I'll at least wait to see how the whole crop turns out before weighing in, and in any case you really need 2-3 years before you can start to confidently say anything.
Realistically, I think with the current group we have, we should be able to produce starters at both positions as well as a relevant player in a corner OF spot, along with 1 or 2 decent fallback options in AAA for depth purposes. There's just nothing about Lee that jumps out at me, but if he's the pick, I'll at least wait to see how the whole crop turns out before weighing in, and in any case you really need 2-3 years before you can start to confidently say anything.
Gallatin
A Banksy of Goonism
Personally I'd hold off on Drafting 1B Right-handers until Davis proves something behind the plate.
ImporterExporter
"You're a boring old man"
Yeah, I don't like the idea of Parada based on the fact he's behind where Davis was coming out of school and if both of them flunk the C routine you're now looking at 1B/DH for 2 top 4 picks, including a 1.1
Plus Gonzo having an off year, Peguero has really, really tumbled the last 2 months. This is why you can never have enough MI prospects.
Also, glad we're going to make Minor look like a Cy Young masterclass P today.
Plus Gonzo having an off year, Peguero has really, really tumbled the last 2 months. This is why you can never have enough MI prospects.
Also, glad we're going to make Minor look like a Cy Young masterclass P today.
MrBrightside
Registered User
ImporterExporter
"You're a boring old man"
Castillo is still a sub .200 hitter but once in a while he really gets a hold of one. Really wish they'd give Bae a shot and let DC grab some reps in AAA like they're doing with Mitchell.
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