OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

[DJ Spinoza]

 

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He really hit well over 12 games. 400+ but again, him playing 2B regularly means Marcano is probably benched or getting sparse starts in LF when Madris or Suwinski gets a day off.

 

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Endy Rodriguez was my top hitter to watch in the lower ranks and he's really been hitting well, especially of late. He's not far off .900 OPS since May 1st.

Up to .275/.833 overall with his 9th homer today. Plays so many positions and is said to be ahead of Davis as far as C ability goes.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

He really hit well over 12 games. 400+ but again, him playing 2B regularly means Marcano is probably benched or getting sparse starts in LF when Madris or Suwinski gets a day off.

Yeah, I don't have any great ideas. He's too much of a veteran to leave in AAA and I almost tend to think the same about simply trying to dump him in a trade. I actually think the underlying skills and record are fine enough for a team to have a little bit of interest in him as a bench player.

If we assume he'll be aggressively shopped and moved, then Castillo going down for about three weeks or so would line up well with securing the 7th year of control (though that's almost a moot point I think, but as a matter of course), so I think that may be the play even if Castillo gives you the rarer RH bat. I think in this scenario, Madris is probably who goes for Gamel, even though Madris has shown some good traits.

That would leave Marcano with some more opportunities to rotate into the OF while also playing 2B, where Newman would play a solid bit (ideally most of the time) while he also slides over to SS on occasion. In other words, if Marcano has to be more of a utility player for Cruz to continue getting everyday ABs healthily for another 3-4 weeks, that's fine by me.

If we take the long-term road of keeping Newman as a veteran backup, I don't know that I'd 100% hate it, but in that scenario we need to try and move some of the MI prospects for other help. Newman can probably increase his value slightly but I think the book on him is already set and any trade partner would value the contact/speed/defense trio. Also, put bluntly, if we're not at the point where Marcano, Castillo, and others can supplant Newman, then we're not in a great situation.

I think the optimistic road is that we play Newman somewhat regularly in full effort to trade him. While I think we should try to have the MLB team show improvement (and 100 losses is still very much in the cards), there's no point in chasing that with Newman even if he starts playing very well. I really think a great outcome would be to take the chance on Andujar. He's depth for the Yankees and they are looking to move him, and Newman gives them a few things they don't really have. Andujar has 2 more years of control and has shown flashes as a good power RH bat, so he gives us some more balance and another 1B/DH/corner OF to see for a bit.

 

[Gallatin]

Endy Rodriguez was my top hitter to watch in the lower ranks and he's really been hitting well, especially of late. He's not far off .900 OPS since May 1st.

Up to .275/.833 overall with his 9th homer today. Plays so many positions and is said to be ahead of Davis as far as C ability goes.

BTW Endy's a 290/390/520 hitter with 12%/20% BB & K rates and a .230 ISO since May 1st. Another month of that and we'll be seeing him in Altoona IMO.

I'm actually in a bit of a debate with my former Bucco coach about this guy. He's not nearly as high on him as we are BTW. Thinks he's ultimately a light hitting 1B. I don't believe he's actually worked with Rodriguez though, as he was coaching higher in the system last year.

Endy's certainly a good looking 2B prospect IMO, and looks ok-ish in Left. I however have not seen one of his Catching games this year, anyone have any opinions on how he's doing?

 

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BTW Endy's a 290/390/520 hitter with 12%/20% BB & K rates and a .230 ISO since May 1st. Another month of that and we'll be seeing him in Altoona IMO.

I'm actually in a bit of a debate with my former Bucco coach about this guy. He's not nearly as high on him as we are BTW. Thinks he's ultimately a light hitting 1B. I don't believe he's actually worked with Rodriguez though, as he was coaching higher in the system last year.

Endy's certainly a good looking 2B prospect IMO, and looks ok-ish in Left. I however have not seen one of his Catching games this year, anyone have any opinions on how he's doing?

Outside that top tier group, he's my favorite player. MVP of A ball in FL last year. He's playing/hitting like that for 2 months now in NC. They kept him in Bradenton all year last year and I hope they get a little aggressive and push him to Altoona for at least a month, if not longer. That'll be the biggest test yet. But he has a chance to be a really valuable chess piece that can actually play a decent C.

 

[Gallatin]

Outside that top tier group, he's my favorite player. MVP of A ball in FL last year. He's playing/hitting like that for 2 months now in NC. They kept him in Bradenton all year last year and I hope they get a little aggressive and push him to Altoona for at least a month, if not longer. That'll be the biggest test yet. But he has a chance to be a really valuable chess piece that can actually play a decent C.

There wasn't a lot of excitement about Brian Reynolds when he was in the system, and his performance and tools looked a lot like Endy's has to this point.

So yeah - Endy Rodriguez is my Bryan Reynolds of this prospect group. I don't put a ceiling on him, but I think his floor is an MLB bench player.

 

[Gallatin]

Yeah, I don't have any great ideas. He's too much of a veteran to leave in AAA and I almost tend to think the same about simply trying to dump him in a trade. I actually think the underlying skills and record are fine enough for a team to have a little bit of interest in him as a bench player.

If we assume he'll be aggressively shopped and moved, then Castillo going down for about three weeks or so would line up well with securing the 7th year of control (though that's almost a moot point I think, but as a matter of course), so I think that may be the play even if Castillo gives you the rarer RH bat. I think in this scenario, Madris is probably who goes for Gamel, even though Madris has shown some good traits.

That would leave Marcano with some more opportunities to rotate into the OF while also playing 2B, where Newman would play a solid bit (ideally most of the time) while he also slides over to SS on occasion. In other words, if Marcano has to be more of a utility player for Cruz to continue getting everyday ABs healthily for another 3-4 weeks, that's fine by me.

If we take the long-term road of keeping Newman as a veteran backup, I don't know that I'd 100% hate it, but in that scenario we need to try and move some of the MI prospects for other help. Newman can probably increase his value slightly but I think the book on him is already set and any trade partner would value the contact/speed/defense trio. Also, put bluntly, if we're not at the point where Marcano, Castillo, and others can supplant Newman, then we're not in a great situation.

I think the optimistic road is that we play Newman somewhat regularly in full effort to trade him. While I think we should try to have the MLB team show improvement (and 100 losses is still very much in the cards), there's no point in chasing that with Newman even if he starts playing very well. I really think a great outcome would be to take the chance on Andujar. He's depth for the Yankees and they are looking to move him, and Newman gives them a few things they don't really have. Andujar has 2 more years of control and has shown flashes as a good power RH bat, so he gives us some more balance and another 1B/DH/corner OF to see for a bit.

Man Newman just doesn't fit on this team anymore. Not with Cruz playing near average SS, and countless MI prospects here and on the way now.

I wonder how they're going to sift through all these Infielders the next two years? Cruz, Castillo, Marcano, Bae, Gonzales, Rodrigues, Park, Castro, Alvarez, Peguero. That's quite a list. Hopefully we end up keeping the right ones, but there ain't no room anymore for the VanMeter's and Newman's of the world imo.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I definitely agree -- the only potential counter to that is if the org prefers Newman as the utility MI for the next 1-2 years at least, i.e., they prefer him over Castillo and Castro, or they don't fully trust Marcano as a starting 2B. I think the latter is probably unlikely, since we know that the front office was all about Marcano for years, and now he's showing flashes at the plate and playing plus defense. The only thing you can say about Newman over him is that he's got the elite defense covered at short.

It's less clear if they think it about the utility guys, and here I am still discounting all the prospects who haven't debuted for the sake of simplicity, through I like a lot of the guys you mentioned to be clear, and Bae especially is obviously beating down the door. For me, I think Castillo has clearly shown enough, and Castro continues to hold intrigue. The bevy of prospects can't simply be ignored due in large part to 40-man questions this offseason. Gonzales and Alvarez will need to be added, and I think Endy as well, though I am still not really sure I understand how things work for guys who were Rule 5 eligible last December. I assume if they aren't on, they need to be this winter if they were eligible last year.

In any case, I am really meandering here, but I am just trying to game it out a bit. I dislike Newman as much as the next poster here, but I do think he was extremely unlucky last year and that with his defense, the floor is a solid bench utility player, and there's a little more than that in there if he's made adjustments at the plate (though on a better team, a 2ish WAR player with his skills is not an everyday player anyways).

All of this is why I think he can still be traded and for something at least intriguing/decent, such as Andujar. I really think that's the ideal outcome we should be rooting for, as Andujar definitely has some value but is also a 27 year old who hasn't cracked in full-time, so he's not really a prospect anymore. Maybe Yankees fans want to see him and Florial as part of a package to get them a pitcher, but that's not going to be an attractive start for any true rebuilding team (though with his control, Florial could at least be part of a deal for someone like Castillo that is headlined by Volpe or someone better).

We're rebuilding, to be sure, but Andujar is a great fit in terms of immediate need and potential impact, so the deal just seems to kind of line up well to me. If you are the Yankees, maybe you can deal Andujar for bullpen depth, but I just don't see a lot of alternatives. Similarly, we could try and get some kind of reclamation pitching or 5th starter prospect type for Newman, but I'd take my chances on a RH power bat who has had to face injury and depth issues to crack in.

The sole alternative I can see is if we were going to get more aggressive in immediately building for next year by trading Peguero, Bae, or Gonzales in a deal for pitching, but that's a stretch to me. I think we can assume Newman and Gamel will both be back and play a lot for the next three weeks in order to be traded, and I think you can add Stratton to that mix if anyone would take him, and probably Quintana too.

I also still think it's decently possible that Reynolds will be moved. I don't want it to happen and don't think it's a good idea, but we're flirting with another 100 loss season, so all bets are off IMO. There's a world where he goes full fire sale mode, including Reynolds, and then it's back to playing the kids extensively in August and September, and sort of another punt on 2023 already as more prospects arrive and we rinse/repeat on Anderson/Quintana for innings.

 

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2022 MLB Draft - Mock Draft 4.0 — Prospects Live

Mock Draft 4.0 is here. Who will your team select? Where will Termarr Johnson, Elijah Green, Druw Jones and Dylan Lesko end up? What about college stars like Brooks Lee, Kevin Parada and Jace Jung? MLB scouting personnel helped develop v 4.0. Enjoy.

www.prospectslive.com

Another mock with Collier to us. Given we brought him to a Bucs game recently, he'd certainly seem like a finalist at 4.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

He also has us taking Jackson Ferris at #36, and then another pitcher, college RHP Adam Mazur with pick #3. I still like Collier a lot, but I am leaning more and more towards hoping that we end up with Johnson or Green depending on how the top of the board ends up.

What pushes me towards both of them is a combination of things. In Johnson's case, he is elite at the most important aspect of the offensive game for prospects, which is the hit tool. While lack of projection and lack of defensive upside are noteworthy, that's a unicorn type skill and would be hard to see it turned down. Similarly. Green has remarkable tools as well as upside, and is at a premium position to boot. I really think that he might be the best outcome for us, with the top of the board going something like: Johnson/Lee, Jones, Holliday.

I wouldn't be disappointed with Collier, but I think it's still a little bit more projection, and so it's mostly appealing if we are able to pull off another strong spread of slot money. That could happen, but in terms of how I am seeing the board, I think we can still basically go slot at #4 and get a great player at #36. I'm less sure about going under slot at #4 and coming away with three really high ceiling players later on, which to be sure is an unfair standard. Still, there's a bit of a window for me between Johnson/Green and Collier. It's also interesting to see Jung listed -- he's a masher can could be in the mix pretty quickly, but I don't know what position he fits at other than 2B, and I would hope we wouldn't take him over Johnson given the choice.

 

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He also has us taking Jackson Ferris at #36, and then another pitcher, college RHP Adam Mazur with pick #3. I still like Collier a lot, but I am leaning more and more towards hoping that we end up with Johnson or Green depending on how the top of the board ends up.

What pushes me towards both of them is a combination of things. In Johnson's case, he is elite at the most important aspect of the offensive game for prospects, which is the hit tool. While lack of projection and lack of defensive upside are noteworthy, that's a unicorn type skill and would be hard to see it turned down. Similarly. Green has remarkable tools as well as upside, and is at a premium position to boot. I really think that he might be the best outcome for us, with the top of the board going something like: Johnson/Lee, Jones, Holliday.

I wouldn't be disappointed with Collier, but I think it's still a little bit more projection, and so it's mostly appealing if we are able to pull off another strong spread of slot money. That could happen, but in terms of how I am seeing the board, I think we can still basically go slot at #4 and get a great player at #36. I'm less sure about going under slot at #4 and coming away with three really high ceiling players later on, which to be sure is an unfair standard. Still, there's a bit of a window for me between Johnson/Green and Collier. It's also interesting to see Jung listed -- he's a masher can could be in the mix pretty quickly, but I don't know what position he fits at other than 2B, and I would hope we wouldn't take him over Johnson given the choice.

The problem with Green/Johnson is money. I don't think either will come in under slot if they were to go 4 and in the case of Green, he'd probably want over slot, which is why I don't see them being our targets.

I agree that Johnson's hit tool is probably the most appealing of any of the HS kids. I'd love him at 4. He's been compared to Robinson Cano and Rafael Devers, either of which would be a fantastic outcome of course. I simply haven't heard even a slight rumor of him to us. Same thing with Green, who I think has as high a ceiling of anyone in this draft, but also likely a lower floor than some of the others at the top.

So to me, right now it seems like it's either Collier or Lee. I don't see anything that puts Collier above 4, though Lee has been talked about as the O's pick if they decide to go with big savings and then bank on their plethora of picks inside the top 100, much like we did last year. I still think Jones is their pick though. He's pretty much the consensus best player/projection in the draft and has the name recognition you want to top it off.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I don't fully disagree but I haven't seen too much on the prep guys asking for over slot or anything like that. Don't think it's meaningful in this sense, but Green did say he would like to play in Pittsburgh.

Looking over last year and the main above slot guy was Lawlar, in part because he had slid so far ans in part because he had a Vanderbilt commitment and could feasibly expect to come back in a few years as a top 2-3 pick again, which is where he was often ranked. Outside of Jones, the mocks for the prep guys have them sliding all over the place, so I think if we took anyone, we'd be able to sign them at right around slot.

That said, it's a good point that we've mostly been attached to Collier and Lee anyways, though I'm still of the mindset that BC's front office is very tight lipped about all this stuff. I just like the upside of those two slightly more than Collier, even with his age and rising prospect status considered.

Honestly, I think there might be as good of a chance for Johnson to get to us as there is for Green, If Johnson doesn't go 1, then it will either be a chain reaction of Lee, Jones, Holliday, or if the Orioles do want Jones, I think the DBacks would take Green second, and the Rangers still get Holliday. The teams behind us start picking away at college players, and we've seen a few mocks that have the Cubs as Johnson's landing spot.

As always, it's a lot of shuffling depending on where you look, and I'm sure we'll keep seeing it over the next week and a half. I don't really have a sense anymore for what the Orioles want to do, but their consistent approach has been more model-driven, and though Jones is pretty much the consensus #1, I don't think he's quite head and shoulders over the rest of the pack as to make it a slam dunk for them. So I am expecting them to either go Johnson or Lee, or perhaps even more outside the box and under slot with Collier (though I haven't seen anything at all to suggest it yet). I'd be pretty surprised if one of Green or Johnson isn't there when we pick, which is basically what I'm going on now. I'd be totally fine with Collier and excited for the next picks, but I am bracing myself for some disappointment with Lee.

 

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If Jones doesn't go 1, he'll go 2, which is just absurd when you think of what Arizona has in the OF now, not to mention who they have coming in Corbin Carroll.

I think my preferences are basically one of Green/Johnson/Collier as they offer very big upside with the bat and in the case of Green, a complete package superstar if it all clicks. It's hard to ignore Brooks Lee's offensive numbers, especially given what he did in the Cape, then again we saw the exact same thing with Gonzales and he was struggling some in AA, though I don't think that will impact BC's/Sanders decision in any way.

Obviously we seem to have a glut of MI and Lee is probably a 3B (Hayes) or 2B long term. Obviously we don't have a locked down 2B but that SHOULD be Gonzales if he does what most expect him to. Or Marcano, or Bae, Peguero, etc. Lee does have really strong baseball insticts and make up, which is also said about guys like Collier and Johnson.

Green makes a ton of sense if you are swinging for the fences and he's there at 4. OF isn't exactly flush with prospects and the odds of Reynolds being here by the time Green would be ready to patrol CF are pretty slim.

 

[Gallatin]

I don't fully disagree but I haven't seen too much on the prep guys asking for over slot or anything like that. Don't think it's meaningful in this sense, but Green did say he would like to play in Pittsburgh.

Looking over last year and the main above slot guy was Lawlar, in part because he had slid so far ans in part because he had a Vanderbilt commitment and could feasibly expect to come back in a few years as a top 2-3 pick again, which is where he was often ranked. Outside of Jones, the mocks for the prep guys have them sliding all over the place, so I think if we took anyone, we'd be able to sign them at right around slot.

That said, it's a good point that we've mostly been attached to Collier and Lee anyways, though I'm still of the mindset that BC's front office is very tight lipped about all this stuff. I just like the upside of those two slightly more than Collier, even with his age and rising prospect status considered.

Honestly, I think there might be as good of a chance for Johnson to get to us as there is for Green, If Johnson doesn't go 1, then it will either be a chain reaction of Lee, Jones, Holliday, or if the Orioles do want Jones, I think the DBacks would take Green second, and the Rangers still get Holliday. The teams behind us start picking away at college players, and we've seen a few mocks that have the Cubs as Johnson's landing spot.

As always, it's a lot of shuffling depending on where you look, and I'm sure we'll keep seeing it over the next week and a half. I don't really have a sense anymore for what the Orioles want to do, but their consistent approach has been more model-driven, and though Jones is pretty much the consensus #1, I don't think he's quite head and shoulders over the rest of the pack as to make it a slam dunk for them. So I am expecting them to either go Johnson or Lee, or perhaps even more outside the box and under slot with Collier (though I haven't seen anything at all to suggest it yet). I'd be pretty surprised if one of Green or Johnson isn't there when we pick, which is basically what I'm going on now. I'd be totally fine with Collier and excited for the next picks, but I am bracing myself for some disappointment with Lee.

I'm solidly in the Collier/Green/Johnson camp, those are the guys. Collier seems to have all the momentum, similar to how Hank Davis was trending going into the Draft last year IMO.

Honestly I'm good with any of those guys, although Termarr's defense makes me a touch more cautious then with the other two.

 

[sovietsanta87]

Green would be a perfect fit from a talent, potential, positional standpoint but I agree that money may be the barrier. I’m split on collier. Dude seems like he could be a superstar or fail to get out of AA. He also needs to completely rework his throwing motion. As usual there’s no easy decision with our slot. But the good news is there’s plenty of available talent at 4

 

[DJ Spinoza]

We'll see what the rest of the moves end up being. This is moderately but not totally shocking to me. My quick take is that it might not be the end of the world for him to get regular ABs in AAA, and that when push comes to shove, the #1 priority above all else right now should be consistent, regular ABs for Cruz. So this could maybe point towards Newman as the more or less everyday 2B, which I don't hate as a plan if the next step is a trade in three weeks.

I think it's fine if Cruz shifts to DH a few times or is rested once a week or so, but outside of that, he should be playing, and most of the time in the field at shortstop (he should not play an inning in the OF in MLB this year, IMO).

I will be a little bit surprised if Castillo doesn't go to AAA at some point just because it's an easy way to gain a 7th year of control, but ultimately that might not be too important given his age/upside.

 

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Sigh. Not surprised in the least.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Newman is hitting .409 in AAA right now with an OPS of .926. I feel like calling him up now and seeing if he can remain hot in the majors is a good call.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Seems like the other move is Park for Yoshi. Not surprising -- it was going to be some mix of Park, Castillo, Marcano, and ultimately Madris once Gamel is ready I think.

I don't quite see the long-term utility of VanMeter at this point, so there could be the question of him being the move for Gamel, but we'll see. The other thing to consider is that in the winter, there will probably be a lot of roster shuffling that needs to take place. I think that's all the more reason to unload where possible and see as much of guys like Madris as possible. Swaggerty is also hitting pretty well lately in Indy, and of course there's Bae.

Gamel and Newman were obviously returning, but there shouldn't be any question about shopping both aggressively, and with Yoshi, VanMeter, and perhaps even Chavis to an extent, there shouldn't be a lot of leash in terms of playing time or roster spot over other guys, simply because once we get to August and September, we need to get a healthy look at as many guys as we can. For now, I'm just hoping this means Newman at 2B tonight with Cruz at SS. If Newman is at SS and Cruz is on the bench after an off day, that will be a huge red flag.

 

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[DJ Spinoza]

lol

 

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So still no Newman yet.

 

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@DJ Spinoza

Just for you bud.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

It's definitely bad news, but I think it will still be a stretch to have him out there. Gamel, Suwinski, and Reynolds will start most of the games until Gamel is traded. At that point you'll presumably have at least one of Madris, Mitchell, or Swaggerty to call up, and at some point Bae has to come up. Bae's played OF a lot more times than Cruz did, probably a total of 20 or so games in LF and CF. He and Marcano really seem to have similar profiles, with the difference being that Bae has flashed a little more power.

In any case, there's probably not much harm in taking some drills with an eye to the future, but he's been very consistent defensively and it would be so stupid not to try and keep him going downhill, so to speak. I expect Newman to get at least a half dozen starts at short (and that's probably conservative), but that should be doable with Cruz having a day off every week or so and DHing the other times. We'll see -- my biggest worry is that in Newman's first game back, he'll start at shortstop with Cruz on the bench (I expect it tomorrow).