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OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

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Gallatin said:
You know something I love about this particular Draft - is that there is a ton of late 1st - 3rd RD level left-handed starting pitching.

Jackson Ferris is at the top of my wish list, but I'm also quite taken by guys like Brandon Barriera, Connor Prielipp, Carson Whisenhunt, Noah Schultz, Tristan Smith, and Cooper Hjerpe. Give me any two of those guys @ 36 & 44, and I'm a happy happy camper.

Have one drop to 83 and I'm dumfoundedly happy, but there's another dozen Lefties I'd like to see here as well as the above listed.

So I'm hoping for one of Collier/Green/Johnson @ 5, and than a bunch of Lefty starters with the next several picks.
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sovietsanta87 said:
Big fan of Walter Ford too. Maybe with our third pick
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Yeah, I like the ground of LHP and I also like the sound of Ford a lot. It would be great to get two guys, but it's hard to say for sure how things will shake out. Collier might be a discount, but it's also the case this year that we have a little less room to work with picking 4th instead of 1st. Slot value is essentially 7M, with picks 7 and 8 for example being a little above and below 5.5. So maybe you can save somewhere in the vicinity of 1.25 or 1.5, but that might not necessarily allow you to go well over with your second and third pick.

I like the pitching class well enough that I really hope we end up with one of these arms. Prielipp would be the perfect kind of really big swing that could have a huge impact -- the obviously aren't comparable pitchers, but similar circumstances to what happened with Walker Buehler. If he's healthy and back to form, then you just got a top of the class college arm.

There are too many contingencies, but probably the biggest question is how many other teams play the same game, and who they want with their next picks vs. who we want. I think last year was so anomalous in having Solometo targeted and then being able to go with the upside of White and the best of all three in Chandler. The Orioles look prime to go this route, and the Royals have done it before, but unless they pull the same type of thing as last year, probably won't be a true threat. The other x-factor is the Mets. They could definitely use one of the 1st round picks on a pitcher.

Outside of those scenarios, then just with back of napkin math, if we are able to do a 1.5M haircut and you assume we might also be able to wrangle another 1M or so with later picks, then it's pretty feasible that we can force a specific player to us at 36. Regardless, as Gallatin says, the depth is there anyways. I'd be happy with all the guys mentioned at 36 in all likelihood.

I think the scenario I like best is one of the young bats at #4 and Ferris at #36 -- Green and Ferris would be kinda cool as IMG teammates, and then maybe you can pounce on a college bat with pick 3, or perhaps even a college arm like Barco. I keep saying this but I just can't get too excited about Lee. If we go college bat, I'd almost just rather go Parada. It could send Davis a weird message, but catchers are often projects and both guys have fine floors as 1B/DH, of which we really don't have any.
 
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Something else worth noting on Rocker that I forgot to mention earlier is that the Mets medical staff seems pretty well known for nixing deals, so it's possible that they overreacted to whatever they saw in his medicals. Still, it's not enough to brush things off completely, especially when you consider how much of a financial coup it is for teams when you hit.

I think it's too specific to really work out, and it's also worth wondering if this FO would ever be in on Rocker. I wouldn't rush to conclusions about that, but I never got the sense that we were last year. This year, it's pretty difficult to see the scenario. If enough teams are fine with the medicals, then someone will take him in the middle of the first or so and there's not much else that can be done about it. I think it's especially true given that a lot of the pitching talent is either prep or buying back and injury or a very late riser, which just seems like it's going to leave open a stretch of 5-10 picks where he can easily go.

Hell, I don't want to go too crazy, but if the scouts are on his slider again, you could see a playoff type team go after him with the idea of getting him in the bullpen for short appearances down the stretch, similar to what the White Sox did when they drafted Crochet.

For me, going young with both picks seems like the way to go (I keep lumping Collier in with the prep guys but he's technically college I guess). It might be unfair given the injuries, but I'm pretty underwhelmed with Gonzales, and the best long-term viability of the franchise is to keep the prospect train rolling. I will say that the more I look it over, the more I like trying to gun for Prielipp at 36.
 
I think the Rocker situation will ultimately be a moot point because I just can't see him sliding to the Pirates. They'd be insane to take him at 4 and I don't think he lasts until 36.

It would actually be kinda hilarious for the Mets to take him at 14 next year. But speaking realistically, I imagine he goes at about 20, maybe even a bit sooner.
 
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DJ Spinoza said:
Yeah, I like the ground of LHP and I also like the sound of Ford a lot. It would be great to get two guys, but it's hard to say for sure how things will shake out. Collier might be a discount, but it's also the case this year that we have a little less room to work with picking 4th instead of 1st. Slot value is essentially 7M, with picks 7 and 8 for example being a little above and below 5.5. So maybe you can save somewhere in the vicinity of 1.25 or 1.5, but that might not necessarily allow you to go well over with your second and third pick.

I like the pitching class well enough that I really hope we end up with one of these arms. Prielipp would be the perfect kind of really big swing that could have a huge impact -- the obviously aren't comparable pitchers, but similar circumstances to what happened with Walker Buehler. If he's healthy and back to form, then you just got a top of the class college arm.

There are too many contingencies, but probably the biggest question is how many other teams play the same game, and who they want with their next picks vs. who we want. I think last year was so anomalous in having Solometo targeted and then being able to go with the upside of White and the best of all three in Chandler. The Orioles look prime to go this route, and the Royals have done it before, but unless they pull the same type of thing as last year, probably won't be a true threat. The other x-factor is the Mets. They could definitely use one of the 1st round picks on a pitcher.

Outside of those scenarios, then just with back of napkin math, if we are able to do a 1.5M haircut and you assume we might also be able to wrangle another 1M or so with later picks, then it's pretty feasible that we can force a specific player to us at 36. Regardless, as Gallatin says, the depth is there anyways. I'd be happy with all the guys mentioned at 36 in all likelihood.

I think the scenario I like best is one of the young bats at #4 and Ferris at #36 -- Green and Ferris would be kinda cool as IMG teammates, and then maybe you can pounce on a college bat with pick 3, or perhaps even a college arm like Barco. I keep saying this but I just can't get too excited about Lee. If we go college bat, I'd almost just rather go Parada. It could send Davis a weird message, but catchers are often projects and both guys have fine floors as 1B/DH, of which we really don't have any.
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It helps we have the fourth largest bonus pool in this draft. To your point we have more flexibility than other teams to get creative. Im with you on brooks Lee. I think the hit tool might be slightly overrated because of where he played and his injury history gives me pause. We also don’t know what hes Looking for money wise. But at 4, I would probably pass. Collier is 17 and has a ton of potential. Last week I thought he was going to go after us in the 7-10 range but he’s been getting more attention. Should note that he’s likely a future first baseman. They grade his arm a 65 out of 80 but he doesnt throw passed the ear like infielders typically do. It’s more of a wind up which leads to the ball sailing at times.

The consensus seems to be 1-Jones, 2-Holliday and then it’s crapshoot. Green would be solid if he fell to us but hopefully he doesn’t hold out like his dad did when the Steelers took him lol

I think if the pirates would take Parada he would ultimately end up at first base or DH. His defense is worse than Davis’s and while Davis has struggled with receiving, his arm is an absolute cannon. Temmar Johnson is another one that can hit the snot out of the ball but he has no true position.

Long story short it would be nice if the rangers could go the college bat route with Parada or someone so we can snag green at 4 somehow.
 
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From what I've read, we shouldn't overthink this: Termarr Johnson. Sorry if I misspelled your name dude
 
I've essentially started taking it for granted that the Orioles will go underslot and not take Jones, but the way that would break is hard to predict. I think it's safe to say Holliday wouldn't take a discount, and the consensus is starting to point at Johnson as the player who would get them the biggest discount. All I've seen is that Elias has said they have 5 players they are considering but won't name them.

They are a model-heavy team, so there might be a real outside shot that they go for Lee. I suppose they could believe in Parada enough, but even assuming he is immediately moved to 1B, it seems too weird with them having Rutschman.

Regardless, it does seem to be something of a consensus right now that they may not take Jones, and no matter how that plays out, it pretty much has to result in two of Johnson, Green, and Collier being there when we pick. I still go back and forth on the order I prefer them but would be happy with all three. I might slightly lean Green just because of the upside, but it's also another thing entirely to have confidence that we'll successfully develop him. In the end I think I still lean towards the hit tool of Johnson above anything else.

It's a ton of guesswork to think about the slot values, but if things did break down so that Johnson was there for us, then it's still feasible that he'd come at 1M below slot or so, since a lot of people seem to think the Cubs (5.7M to our 7M) are his floor.

Just looking at the total pools now and the Orioles already have tons more than everybody else, so you would think BPA is the best approach, but I guess if they aren't totally sold on Jones then they can set themselves up to pretty easily replicate what we did last year. If they take someone at 2M under slot, then they'd basically have 4M more than anyone else, because the DBacks aren't going to be able to save slot with their pick, and it's highly unlikely that the Mets would be able to do much shaving either. That actually could leave us, as the 4th highest pool, with a decent amount of muscle but we'd still be subjected to the whims of the Orioles.

From where I'm sitting, tldr; is that a slight shave at #4 would allow us to basically get anyone who falls that we want at #36 as long as the Orioles don't nab him first. I have trouble seeing more beyond that, which is why I think whoever we take should just be the BPA for us. If someone is falling who we really like at #36, we should be able to leverage flexibility from a little bit later to free up the money to get that player. The only exception would be if we aimed to go truly wild and pay 4M or so with pick #36, but in that scenario, the one player you might do that for is possibly the same guy the Orioles would be gunning for.
 
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Re: Rocker, he had shoulder surgery in December. I find it hard to imagine that he wouldn't submit his medicals this year but I guess you never know. Presumably teams who have good relationships with Boras could get some kind of assurance. While it does seem fair to guess that Rocker doesn't have a lot of leverage, it's also the case that the MLB draft is severely in favor of the teams over players.

I think that the question of value really starts to tip once you get past the first dozen picks or so. In those cases, it makes a lot of sense that teams are going to want a specific player with their premium slot value, including long-term upside etc. But I think you can make the case that once you clear that hurdle, and even before then in a lot of drafts, things are so much of a crapshoot that someone would be willing to roll the dice even if Rocker doesn't submit his medicals.

My guess is still that he'll be in the mix from pick 15 on. While the Angels could fit at 13, the Padres at 15 are where I start to see it as possible. And I think the x-factor is definitely that you could look at Rocker as a kind of trade deadline acquisition in a sense. Spending 3.5-4 for that is pennies for an MLB team, so all it takes is the right team and the right looking draft board. Taking it a step further, even if Rocker's medicals make you worried that he's a reliever long term, unless it's something truly insane, he could still without much further development be an impact reliever. That would not be a bad return from the middle of the first round on, especially for certain teams.
 
I am not expecting to be happy, but I happened to listen to the whole show and the context of BC's comments made it sound more like Cruz is the primary shortstop. He first mentioned that Newman would play 2B/had been playing it on the rehab stint, so my sense from what he said is that Cruz would DH sometimes but still play "a lot" or "a bunch" of games at short (I forget exactly what he said).

He also said Gamel and Yoshi will be back for the Yankees series, so I guess we'll find out some roster moves very soon. I almost wonder if we might end up sending both Castillo and Marcano down. I bet one will stay (and Marcano deserves it), but that would definitely alleviate some worries about Newman inevitably starting three straight games at shortstop or whatever.
 
LOL, just as soon as I float the possibility of Marcano going down, he makes a very nice running grab in short right. Cherington said something to the effect of "young guys will go down and take their MLB experience to build on it and be back." I think logically, the two that make sense are Madris and Castillo. Marcano gives you a lot of flexibility as a utility guy, but ultimately I hope the plan is to trade Gamel and Newman in three weeks and get more playing time opened up for the young guys, and if that's not possible, then move on from those guys to the same effect.
 
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Empoleon8771 said:
He was casually jogging after the ball had already dropped
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I mean, he slowed down because he didn't slide.

That is a valid criticism.

I mean, he is a really bad baserunner. You having expectations for him as a baserunner is a you problem. He is a big slow fat guy and frankly he didn't really have the speed to slide with going half way and moving when the ball dropped.
 
Pretty much can't win vs. Woodruff if you aren't perfect in converting opportunities.

Thompson looked very sharp for a guy who just came off the IL and didn't rehab, at least.
 
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