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OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

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Kid is absolutely on fire right now. Will be very interesting to see how he handles the jump into A ball. If he continues this pace, he's going to finish the year inside the top 5 prospects for us.

 
Don't quite mean this as a nitpick, but one thing Dreker left out is that Chandler also had 3 BBs. It seems like this has been true in general, where he's clearly dominating overall but the walks are not pointing towards pinpoint command. It's probably a decent sign in itself that he's ready to go beyond the level, but I am still pretty willing to defer to the front office for now, as Chandler's ceiling is high enough that they have to have a pretty specialized plan for him.

My best guess is that they want to see certain process things with the bat (swing decisions and so on -- I am totally spitballing since I have no clue what he's doing or looks like obviously) before they push him up, just because there are two sides of the ball to worry about with him. I don't know if that game will be played every time he needs to move up a level, but as he starts his career, I'm fine with taking the patient approach. I'd still expect him to end up with a cup of coffee in Bradenton this year at least. It's way too far off to be saying anything like this, but I think drawing it up, if he can get to high A by the end of next season, that means AA in 2024 and potentially MLB by sometime in 2025.

That's Reynolds' last year of team control FWIW, not that we should be thinking of that as a target date. Still, the expectation should be that we press to compete in a wild card race next year, with free agents plus a further wave of talent peeking in, and 2024 + 2025 are good seasons to have higher expectations in this scenario.

It's a topic for a different day, but there's probably some argument to be made that you just keep Reynolds through his team control years and don't extend him. If you are unwilling to pay the extension, this path still gets you some likely prime years of production for cheaper (he's already locked in at 6.75 next year, so even a huge raise to 11-12M the following years is only 30M total over the next three seasons vs. 100M or so. I think it's become a little bit too ingrained that you have to either keep a player indefinitely into the future or trade him for the maximum possible value. If nobody is going to trade you a premier, impact prospect (who could bust anyways), then it might just make sense to ride out the team control on a start that you have and try to win in 2024 or 2025.

For the record (not that it matters), I'm in full agreement with what's been said in the past several pages about extending Reynolds. I'm just skeptical that Nutting's commitment is really there, so I'm playing out this other possible scenario which I think is totally fine.
 


Another mock with us taking Collier (as well as prep LHP Jackson Ferris with the second pick, who seems popular). I have to say that I am liking the convergence of us on Collier enough to be very disappointed if we end up with Lee, but it might just be bias towards the prep bats. It's probably worth noting that Lee crushed the Cape Cod League last year, and so if you think he's just a plus plus hitter who is going to also crack MLB by the 2024 season or so, there's definitely some logic to that, and doubly so if you get the slot shave to go bigger with picks 2 and 3.

That said, we have so many middle infield guys that I would like the idea of Lee more if it was part of a strategy that saw us send one or more of the other prospects for some pitching help. That's too much to put on any one draft pick (since at the end of the day, it has to be the right combo of BPA + slot strategy, but from an armchair perspective, I think the best organizational move is to take the highest ceiling you believe in, even if that player is 5 years away.

I also have a little bit of hesitation simply defaulting to the idea of a "slot strategy", as if that move automatically is the best thing you can do. This is an extreme example to bring up, but the Orioles have had this approach backfire on them arguably twice, as it's not a guarantee that the player you want will be an option with your next pick.

For this year, there seems to be a depth of pitching that will give us an obvious option or two, and there is also a depth of college bats that could potentially be a viable good value slot or slightly under pick with pick 3, allowing you to concentrate on the second pick. Maybe that's Rocker (I doubt it), or maybe there are 1 or 2 guys in the pitching ranks that you like well enough to attempt to force to your second pick, and if you fail, enough depth not to totally be screwed.

It's all a lot of speculation. I still keep coming back to how scouts rave about Johnson's hit tool. Callis is saying that he cannot come up with a better prep hitter since he's been covering the draft. There's probably no way to know exactly what our scouts really think, but BPA with biggest ceiling is the way to go at #4, and let the chips fall where they may later in the draft.
 
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We are facing a tough LHP today, but it's kind of a catch-22 with Cruz. Putting him higher in the order risks getting nothing out of him, but burying him lower means less ABs/opportunities for growth and also less likelihood the pitcher has to come with good pitches if he works a count.

Ultimately, I don't know if all this lineup maneuvering does anything at all. I'd be just as fine if we plopped him into a spot and left it alone.



Good change of scenery candidate here. Looks like the Braves had him in AAA as depth and he just wasn't able to get anything going. Still enough upside and only 26 that you'd have to think teams like us would take a look. Maybe you can get a bit of innings out of him this year and even consider converting him to a reliever next year, a la Crowe.
 
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DJ Spinoza said:


Another mock with us taking Collier (as well as prep LHP Jackson Ferris with the second pick, who seems popular). I have to say that I am liking the convergence of us on Collier enough to be very disappointed if we end up with Lee, but it might just be bias towards the prep bats. It's probably worth noting that Lee crushed the Cape Cod League last year, and so if you think he's just a plus plus hitter who is going to also crack MLB by the 2024 season or so, there's definitely some logic to that, and doubly so if you get the slot shave to go bigger with picks 2 and 3.

That said, we have so many middle infield guys that I would like the idea of Lee more if it was part of a strategy that saw us send one or more of the other prospects for some pitching help. That's too much to put on any one draft pick (since at the end of the day, it has to be the right combo of BPA + slot strategy, but from an armchair perspective, I think the best organizational move is to take the highest ceiling you believe in, even if that player is 5 years away.

I also have a little bit of hesitation simply defaulting to the idea of a "slot strategy", as if that move automatically is the best thing you can do. This is an extreme example to bring up, but the Orioles have had this approach backfire on them arguably twice, as it's not a guarantee that the player you want will be an option with your next pick.

For this year, there seems to be a depth of pitching that will give us an obvious option or two, and there is also a depth of college bats that could potentially be a viable good value slot or slightly under pick with pick 3, allowing you to concentrate on the second pick. Maybe that's Rocker (I doubt it), or maybe there are 1 or 2 guys in the pitching ranks that you like well enough to attempt to force to your second pick, and if you fail, enough depth not to totally be screwed.

It's all a lot of speculation. I still keep coming back to how scouts rave about Johnson's hit tool. Callis is saying that he cannot come up with a better prep hitter since he's been covering the draft. There's probably no way to know exactly what our scouts really think, but BPA with biggest ceiling is the way to go at #4, and let the chips fall where they may later in the draft.
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Cam Collier and Jackson Farris are my dream picks. I really want those two.

I've heard about potential issues with Johnson's weight & body type, as well as the defense from multiple informed opinions. Something to consider...

And I wouldn't feel too bad about taking Green or Termarr ahead of Collier, as long as it doesn't screw up taking a Pitcher like Ferris in the 30's.
 
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You know something I love about this particular Draft - is that there is a ton of late 1st - 3rd RD level left-handed starting pitching.

Jackson Ferris is at the top of my wish list, but I'm also quite taken by guys like Brandon Barriera, Connor Prielipp, Carson Whisenhunt, Noah Schultz, Tristan Smith, and Cooper Hjerpe. Give me any two of those guys @ 36 & 44, and I'm a happy happy camper.

Have one drop to 83 and I'm dumfoundedly happy, but there's another dozen Lefties I'd like to see here as well as the above listed.

So I'm hoping for one of Collier/Green/Johnson @ 5, and than a bunch of Lefty starters with the next several picks.
 
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Hayes' contract is going to look really bad, He hits like an oldtime shortstop not high
avg. & not much power at all
 
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Btw, Cruz higher in the lineup, please.

I get it. Shelton has to try to win to keep a job as long as possible and Cruz probably isn't going to get on base as often as other guys. That being said, get this kid as many major league at bats as possible.
 
What a sweet little rally that was.

Poor Castillo not getting 4 on that.

I also can't believe that would have been out at the new Camden Yards.
 
Gallatin said:
You know something I love about this particular Draft - is that there is a ton of late 1st - 3rd RD level left-handed starting pitching.

Jackson Ferris is at the top of my wish list, but I'm also quite taken by guys like Brandon Barriera, Connor Prielipp, Carson Whisenhunt, Noah Schultz, Tristan Smith, and Cooper Hjerpe. Give me any two of those guys @ 36 & 44, and I'm a happy happy camper.

Have one drop to 83 and I'm dumfoundedly happy, but there's another dozen Lefties I'd like to see here as well as the above listed.

So I'm hoping for one of Collier/Green/Johnson @ 5, and than a bunch of Lefty starters with the next several picks.
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Big fan of Walter Ford too. Maybe with our third pick
 
I've never seen a team so f***ing inept at tagging guys dead to rights.

Can't even do simple baseball tasks. Part of me hopes we blow this game just to stir up even more anti Shelton and Marin noise.
 
Watching Priester again. I just don't see it with the kid. I'm sorry but his stuff is just ok and so is his command, and I'd say it's probably a tick below that. Burrows has not pitched well in a month.

There is something rotten in the upper minor/MLB developmental staff.
 
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