Prospect Info: Quinton Byfield (2nd Overall 2020 Draft) Discussion part II

[Sol]

I already said I expect 15 + 30 next season, but I don't gamble (not judging those who do, I just get no enjoyment from it).

Feel free to bookmark and ridicule me at this time next year though.

I wouldn’t ridicule you for being hopeful with him. Just like I wouldn’t want you to ridicule me for not seeing anything in him.

 

[FeartheFur]

I am the only one who thinks this was basically Byfield’s rookie year? First year he barely played,
Second year broke his ankle

 

[King'sPawn]

I wouldn’t ridicule you for being hopeful with him. Just like I wouldn’t want you to ridicule me for not seeing anything in him.

I'm just offering it as I'm not willing to make a wager - I don't have another means of adding incentives that I'm willing to go.

Plus, I know I get smug with some of my jokes like one-trick poniyev whenever he scores, so I wouldn't blame people for giving it back to me.

Appreciate the discussion even if we vehemently disagree though.

 

[Scottkmlps]

How about we not pronounce a 20 year old player with a total of 99 NHL games under his belt a bust? Jesus, some of these takes

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Alright then this should be easy for you. It’s a free 100 dollars if he scores 10 goals. Interested? He lost weight sure but it looks like he lost his hands too.

I mean I'll take you on it

Not a one-sided 100 bucks but def willing to wager a damn good dinner on it haha

Could be a fun one

 

[ru4reals]

I mean I'll take you on it

Not a one-sided 100 bucks but def willing to wager a damn good dinner on it haha

Could be a fun one

Now I'm really anxious for next season to start. Lol.

 

[Sol]

I mean I'll take you on it

Not a one-sided 100 bucks but def willing to wager a damn good dinner on it haha

Could be a fun one

Lol absolutely lets f***ing go my man. Dinner for the winner? Sounds good?

 

[Herby]

I'll bite, how is he behind Patrick?

Because Patrick was more productive at the same age. Now I'm not saying he will be as bad as Patrick. But at the same age they were pretty similar.

How about we not pronounce a 20 year old player with a total of 99 NHL games under his belt a bust? Jesus, some of these takes

But yet no issue with people still comparing him to NHL superstars?

What is a more likely result Scott, that he is Leon Draisaitl or he is Jesse Puljujarvi?

You really think bust is not in the possible range of outcomes based on 3 seasons of viewing?

So much so that it's not even worthy of discussion?

Busts do happen, every year, in every sport. It's not outlandish to suggest a player who has been historically bad through three pro seasons might be a bust. And at the least it's no more outlandish than ones saying he will be a superstar. "Jesus some of these takes", it's like this isn't the same fanbase that has lived through Aki Berg, Jamie Storr, Matt Zultek, Jeff Tambellini, Thomas Hickey, Alex Turcotte, Jens Karlsson, Lauri Tukonen and Colten Teubert. I am shocked by how many people completely write off the possibility that he could be a bust.

They both get points once in a blue moon. I can see the goals from Arty being more impressive. But at the end of the day a top six winger is playing as a 14th forward. And a #1C is playing next to the guy whose job he’s supposed to take. It’s a complete jerk off on all fronts.

They brought in a bunch of veterans in their quest to return to the Dave Taylor black hole which killed Arty's role. And they used a #2 pick on QB, this is one area where BLuc actually are doing what a lot of other teams would do (shocking, I know). When you invest that much in a player (in any sport) you are going to do everything you can to make it work. Look at the NY Jets last season with Zach Wilson.

And as far as QB as a goal-scorer, the point people have made that an improved shooting % is a valid one, but what they are not pointing out is that QB just generates so few SOG that it's not going to even mater that much. He had 74 SOG in 53 games, most of which was spent as a winger on the teams 1st line. Byfield had 1.4 shots-per-game this season. Of the players who played at least 20 games this season the only ones with fewer shots-per game were Alex Edler, Sean Walker, Mikey Anderson, Rasmus Kupari, Brendan Lemieux and JAD. So stay at home defenseman and 4th line forwards. Byfield produced less shots-per-game than Matt Roy and Vladislav Gavrikov.

If QB's shooting% were doubled to 8% he would have scored 6 goals. 10% he would have gotten 7 goals. Even 18.9% which was the best on the team, would have resulted in 13 goals. An abnormally low shooting percentage (and I agree, it was) doesn't matter if the player is that bad at even generating shots.

And while you bring his unluckiness up to levels you deem fair, you can also bring Kopitar's (16.6%), 2nd best in his career at age 35 down. And Vilardi's (18.9%) down to more normal expectation as well.

Vilardi's career shooting % coming into this season was 14.3%, Kopitar's between his Hart Trophy finalist season and this one was at 12.1%

If each player shoots at those percentages this season they would have had 17 goals (Vilardi) and 20 goals (Kopitar) instead of the 23 and 28 they ended up with.

 

[Telos]

Now that Jon Rosen said that Blake, influenced by Tony Granato, ignored our scouting staff and took Turcotte over their recommendation to take Zegras. It definitely makes you naturally wonder about the Byfield vs. Stutzle behind the scenes. Though I think Byfield had more attractive attributes given his size, skill, and natural center ability and I think Yannetti was much higher on him than it sounds like he was with Turcotte, but he did say that it was really close and they really liked Stutzle too. We all know what Blake thought, but I kind of wish I was a fly on the wall and could see the field of opinion in our scouting department before the pick.

 

[No Name The Nameless]

I mean I'll take you on it

Not a one-sided 100 bucks but def willing to wager a damn good dinner on it haha

Could be a fun one

Can I get in on this RJ? I too would like a steak.

 

[SaltyElkHunter]

Vilardi was frustrating because we couldn’t watch him play. Byfield has been frustrating because we have watched him play!

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Now that Jon Rosen said that Blake, influenced by Tony Granato, ignored our scouting staff and took Turcotte over their recommendation to take Zegras. It definitely makes you naturally wonder about the Byfield vs. Stutzle behind the scenes. Though I think Byfield had more attractive attributes given his size, skill, and natural center ability and I think Yannetti was much higher on him than it sounds like he was with Turcotte, but he did say that it was really close and they really liked Stutzle too. We all know what Blake thought, but I kind of wish I was a fly on the wall and could see the field of opinion in our scouting department before the pick.

All it tells me is they need to listen to Christian Ruuttu

But seriously I have less qualms about the actual pick and more about the process...

 

[Herby]

I think it's fair to expect to draft a top line forward if you draft a forward in the top three picks of a draft. Forwards taken in the top 3 picks since 2013 and the number of seasons it took to reach 0.78 points/game (top 96 scoring forwards in the league scored at least 0.78 points/game this season) in a season:

2013: Nathan MacKinnon D+5, Aleksander Barkov D+3, Jonathan Drouin D+NOTYET (now D+10)
2014: Sam Reinhart D+8, Leon Draisaitl D+3
2015: Connor McDavid D+1, Jack Eichel D+2, Dylan Strome D+8
2016: Auston Mathews D+1, Patrik Laine D+1, Pierre-Luc Dubois D+NOTYET (now D+7)
2017: Nico Hischier D+5, Nolan Patrick D+NOTYET (now D+6)
2018: Andrei Svechnikov D+2, Jasper Kotkaniemi D+NOTYET (now D+5)
2019: Jack Hughes D+3, Kaapo Kakko D+NOTYET, Kirby Dach D+NOTYET (both now D+4)
2020: Alex Lafreniere D+NOTYET, Quinton Byfield D+NOTYET (both now D+3), Tim Stutzle D+3

Barkov, Draisaitl, Hughes, and Stutzle took until their 3rd year. McKinnon and Hischier took until their fifth year to break through into bona fide top six forwards. Lesson here is, be patient.

One could argue given injury and illness that Byfield really just finished his D+2 year. Hopefully he finds himself a good trainer and sports psychologist this summer and really brings it next season.

But I think you are making the mistake in skipping over the progress that most of these guys who ended up being 1st liners made in their age 18, 19, 20 seasons. They didn't just suddenly go from offensive nothings to 1st liners. It's just not common for a guy to jump from 3 goals to 20 goals, or from .4 points per game to 1st liner.

Hischier had 52 points at 18, 55 point pace at 19, and a 51 point pace at 20. Just not comparable to what QB has done.

MacKinnon had 63 points in his age 18 season, had a 50 point pace at 19 and a 60 point pace at 20. Saying he didn't arrive as a good player until D+5 is not really telling the story here. 60+ points for anyone is 2nd line, and for a teenager you can usually project that player will translate to an offensive star, which he has.

Draisaitl was an older pick while QB was a younger one, but in his age 20 season (2nd in the organization or D+2) he scored at a 22G, 58 Point pace in 72 games.

Reinhart was also an older pick, but in his age 20 season which was his D+2, he scored 23 goals in 79 games.

PLD like QB was a younger pick. Age 19 season as an NHL rookie, his D+2 he had 20 goals and 48 points. In his age 20 season (QB this year) he had 27 goals and 60 points. He has scored 20+ goals in 4 of his 6 seasons and 25+ goals in 3 of those. Again, I just struggle to see where there is any similarity in a development arc. Another bigger kid too, 6'3 220

Barkov, similar to QB, very young for his draft. Was obviously handled in a more traditional way as opposed to the shit Blake put QB through in the AHL. But by the time he was QB's age he 59 points in 66 games, but even in his age 19 season there was a step forward, doubling his goal total and looking the part of a future star.

As for the rest of these guys who took longer or never got there, well if QB develops into these types of players nobody is happy at all. But it further illustrates that busts do exist, they are a fact of life in all-sports. Yet it's taboo for some to even be willing to suggest it's a possibility here, despite the fact that the results through 3 seasons show it's certainly a possibility.

 

[SmytheKing]

But I think you are making the mistake in skipping over the progress that most of these guys who ended up being 1st liners made in their age 18, 19, 20 seasons. They didn't just suddenly go from offensive nothings to 1st liners. It's just not common for a guy to jump from 3 goals to 20 goals, or from .4 points per game to 1st liner.

Hischier had 52 points at 18, 55 point pace at 19, and a 51 point pace at 20. Just not comparable to what QB has done.

MacKinnon had 63 points in his age 18 season, had a 50 point pace at 19 and a 60 point pace at 20. Saying he didn't arrive as a good player until D+5 is not really telling the story here. 60+ points for anyone is 2nd line, and for a teenager you can usually project that player will translate to an offensive star, which he has.

Draisaitl was an older pick while QB was a younger one, but in his age 20 season (2nd in the organization or D+2) he scored at a 22G, 58 Point pace in 72 games.

Reinhart was also an older pick, but in his age 20 season which was his D+2, he scored 23 goals in 79 games.

PLD like QB was a younger pick. Age 19 season as an NHL rookie, his D+2 he had 20 goals and 48 points. In his age 20 season (QB this year) he had 27 goals and 60 points. He has scored 20+ goals in 4 of his 6 seasons and 25+ goals in 3 of those. Again, I just struggle to see where there is any similarity in a development arc. Another bigger kid too, 6'3 220

Barkov, similar to QB, very young for his draft. Was obviously handled in a more traditional way as opposed to the shit Blake put QB through in the AHL. But by the time he was QB's age he 59 points in 66 games, but even in his age 19 season there was a step forward, doubling his goal total and looking the part of a future star.

As for the rest of these guys who took longer or never got there, well if QB develops into these types of players nobody is happy at all. But it further illustrates that busts do exist, they are a fact of life in all-sports. Yet it's taboo for some to even be willing to suggest it's a possibility here, despite the fact that the results through 3 seasons show it's certainly a possibility.

Also, for the record, if Byfield just had a season of 20G and 30A, I think pretty much all of us would have been thrilled. Over the mountain happy really.

 

[Telos]

All it tells me is they need to listen to Christian Ruuttu

But seriously I have less qualms about the actual pick and more about the process...

Definitely. I can't blame Blake, I would have picked Byfield too and both were solid prospects at the time. I would just be interested in where the thoughts, feelings, and general voting lies now on all these picks we've had Which we aren't probably going to get and is more of a behind-the-scenes draft fascination.

It is more interesting with Blake, as Dean was someone who gave his parameters to the scouting team and generally listened to their consensus or whoever was pounding the table the hardest for a player. If Blake is going the listen to their advice and then make my own call route, that is interesting to me for better or worse.

 

[Statto]

Now that Jon Rosen said that Blake, influenced by Tony Granato, ignored our scouting staff and took Turcotte over their recommendation to take Zegras. It definitely makes you naturally wonder about the Byfield vs. Stutzle behind the scenes. Though I think Byfield had more attractive attributes given his size, skill, and natural center ability and I think Yannetti was much higher on him than it sounds like he was with Turcotte, but he did say that it was really close and they really liked Stutzle too. We all know what Blake thought, but I kind of wish I was a fly on the wall and could see the field of opinion in our scouting department before the pick.

It was covered previously in an interview with Yanetti.

They basically had both tied from a scouting perspective, give or take, so it was about the type of player they wanted and the fit for the style/type of team they wanted build.

I’m very much paraphrasing that though so don’t take it verbatim.

 

[YP44]

Now that Jon Rosen said that Blake, influenced by Tony Granato, ignored our scouting staff and took Turcotte over their recommendation to take Zegras. It definitely makes you naturally wonder about the Byfield vs. Stutzle behind the scenes. Though I think Byfield had more attractive attributes given his size, skill, and natural center ability and I think Yannetti was much higher on him than it sounds like he was with Turcotte, but he did say that it was really close and they really liked Stutzle too. We all know what Blake thought, but I kind of wish I was a fly on the wall and could see the field of opinion in our scouting department before the pick.

where did he say this?
Agree would love to be a fly on the wall

 

[Telos]

It was covered previously in an interview with Yanetti.

They basically had both tied from a scouting perspective, give or take, so it was about the type of player they wanted and the fit for the style/type of team they wanted build.

I’m very much paraphrasing that though so don’t take it verbatim.

I remember the interview. I am just more interested now in what the room thinks and who made the call as Yannetti's hands are tied if he is overruled and then has to go out there and speak on the player that was selected. Of course, it is not like any of the prospects are trash and he knows all the details about all of them and can speak on any at the drop of a hat, but I am just wondering what his and the scouting staff's real thoughts are on some of these guys behind closed doors. We would never know unless someone talks down the road, but three people just did to Rosen concerning Turcotte so now my interest is piqued

where did he say this?
Agree would love to be a fly on the wall

He said it in his end of the season writeup: Did the Kings just write off a 104-point season?

As Byfield continues to evolve into a dynamic player, the kid gloves have to come off in 2023-24. Well-rounded won’t be good enough. Six-foot-five string-pulling defensive forwards who might not be able to score consistently in the NHL can be drafted well below where Byfield was. Being an excellent backchecker won’t suffice. He absolutely must start producing offense himself. Allusions to “line offense” and his impact on Kempe and Kopitar’s successes were depleted in 2022-23.

All honest indications are that Turcotte has soured into a missed pick, and the Kings will have little to show for the pain of enduring a dismal 2018-19 season in which they entered the lottery with the second-best odds. Plenty of Stanley Cup winners swing and miss with high draft picks; Los Angeles weathered going off the board to select Thomas Hickey fourth overall in 2007 just fine.

The concern here is that Blake diverged from his scouts, and according to three sources, chose Turcotte when Director of Amateur Scouting Mark Yannetti had Trevor Zegras, who has 139 points in 180 career games down the road in Anaheim, ranked higher on the draft list. There have also been whispers that Tony Granato, who would coach Turcotte for one year at Wisconsin, strongly advocated for his incoming freshman prior to the draft.

Turcotte’s career has also been derailed by injury, and one can only imagine the mental and physical anguish of having to return from successive concussions. Health has unquestionably played a part in his stuttered development.

But health and his response to injury were concerns when they’d drafted him. A significant hip injury and mononucleosis removed him from the USNTDP lineup for large swaths of his draft year, and upon arriving at Wisconsin, he didn’t endear himself to the more senior Badgers when he was slow to return from a second half lower-body injury while the team struggled in Big Ten play and those around him were aware he intended to turn pro at the end of the season. Perhaps it’s simply a reflection of not quite fitting in with an insular and often obtuse hockey culture, but teammates in the L.A. organization and Eisbären Berlin, with whom he trained early in the 2020-21 season, were not quick to warm to him.

Turcotte has been included in trade proposals that never came to fruition, so to hear Blake respond to a question regarding the type of role he’d like Turcotte to craft next fall by answering, “health,” it’s both a troubling back-to-the-drawing-board reflection of a 22-year-old lapped by the other nine top-10 picks from 2019 and a validation of several red flags from when he was drafted.

 

[YP44]

It was covered previously in an interview with Yanetti.

They basically had both tied from a scouting perspective, give or take, so it was about the type of player they wanted and the fit for the style/type of team they wanted build.

I’m very much paraphrasing that though so don’t take it verbatim.

Was more looking at the Turcotte vs Zegras. Would love to be at a draft table. If I were a dying kid that maybe my make a wish....which is both pathetic and sad.

 

[YP44]

I remember the interview. I am just more interested now in what the room thinks and who made the call as Yannetti's hands are tied if he is overruled and then has to go out there and speak on the player that was selected. Of course, it is not like any of the prospects are trash and he knows all the details about all of them and can speak on any at the drop of a hat, but I am just wondering what his and the scouting staff's real thoughts are on some of these guys behind closed doors. We would never know unless someone talks down the road, but three people just did to Rosen concerning Turcotte so now my interest is piqued



He said it in his end of the season writeup: Did the Kings just write off a 104-point season?

Good gms hire and then listen to good scouts.

I look here in Calgary and Brad Treliving always listed to his scouts....but his downfall is Button is a terrible scout. I like Yanetti and this worries me if Blake is not listening.

 

[Scottkmlps]

But yet no issue with people still comparing him to NHL superstars?

What is a more likely result Scott, that he is Leon Draisaitl or he is Jesse Puljujarvi?

You really think bust is not in the possible range of outcomes based on 3 seasons of viewing?

So much so that it's not even worthy of discussion?

Busts do happen, every year, in every sport. It's not outlandish to suggest a player who has been historically bad through three pro seasons might be a bust. And at the least it's no more outlandish than ones saying he will be a superstar. "Jesus some of these takes", it's like this isn't the same fanbase that has lived through Aki Berg, Jamie Storr, Matt Zultek, Jeff Tambellini, Thomas Hickey, Alex Turcotte, Jens Karlsson, Lauri Tukonen and Colten Teubert. I am shocked by how many people completely write off the possibility that he could be a bust.

Yes, busts do happen, and a bust is possible, but I'm going to give him more than 99 NHL games before I pronounce him a bust, just like I'm going to give him more than 99 NHL games before I pronounce him a budding star.
To throw a 20 year old that has played in total, not even a season and a 1/4 of NHL hockey into the bust pile, is crazy.

 

[Herby]

Also, for the record, if Byfield just had a season of 20G and 30A, I think pretty much all of us would have been thrilled. Over the mountain happy really.

Obviously, everyone would be thrilled, instead of having a projection based on faith or of a draft decision made 3 years ago you have something tangible that leads us to believe a 1st line season is coming.

Of the guys that he mentioned. The ones who were 2nd liners ended up making the jump to first line and the ones who struggled mostly ended up being busts or disappointments.

And the taller players take more time thing hasn’t usually applied to players taken that high in the draft. Looking at recent guys like Laine, PLD and Matthews. For a player you are taking down the draft I’m sure that has some validity, but 400 NHL games is five full seasons. Nobody is taking a guy #2 overall if you aren’t getting a star caliber for five seasons. Maybe a generation ago when you controlled guys until 31. But you telling me the Kings who already proved they weren’t having him in the NHL in season 1 (Covid or no Covid) were expecting 300-400 games to get a 1st liner, beginning at age 19 or 20?

No way. Not even the biggest Blake hater could think he is that incompetent. That is some Mike Milbury, Sam McMaster level.

 

[Sol]

If byfield scores 25 goals and 25 assists I’ll get his jersey.

 

[SaltyElkHunter]

If byfield scores 25 goals and 25 assists I’ll get his jersey.

If he doesn’t another draft pick will get his number

 

[psych3man]

I think we are all underestimating the pressure Byfield experienced to defer to the veterans on his line. How many times did you shout at 55 on tv or live SHOOT!!!
Whether this deferring tendency was pressure from inside him or outside we will never know. I do know great talents are encouraged to be "selfish" so they use their talents. For whatever reason the Kings have a culture that squelches this tendency. Very frustrating.
No doubt 55's and 34's development havr suffered as a result.
This is the frustrating "process" Raccoon refers to.