Prospect Info: Quinton Byfield (2nd Overall 2020 Draft) Discussion part II

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If it does. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a more mentally fragile player than Byfield. The amount of dips he takes and unravels is on Cal Petersen levels. That doesn’t just go away.

Kopitar was an impact player his rookie season. Byfield has shown pretty much nothing.
I don't see the mental fragility you do, and comparing expectations of Byfield to a hall of famer like Kopitar is incredibly unfair.
 
Correct, nobody thought he would be a plug and play star.

Incorrect, nobody thought he would be a 4-5 year project. Not the GM of the team who said this accelerated the rebuild, not fans on this forum who all had him as the 1C by now in their hypothetical lineups.

The person I replied to has said on numerous occasions he doesn’t understand why people are unhappy with Blake. And then in this thread says that everyone knew QB was a 4-5 year project, this coming from the same GM who’s stated go was to win another championship with 11 and 8. If the Byfield 4-5 year development were truth on draft night and not something invented about a year ago that is complete and total incompetence by Blake. Right?
I’m not here to defend Rob Blake haha.
 
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Some of the comments on Byfield are such extremes. I wonder if that's simply due to frustrations...or maybe meant as hyperbole. IDK. Just odd.
Sure the dude has not scored enough -- he's been a bit of a disappointment to this point compared to his draft position and compared to "that other guy". But to write him off or to not acknowledge that he hasn't progressed -- seems like an effort of trying to be right or maybe just feed up with the (justified) crap show with FO on prospects & their development.
Yeah it's been a slow burn. But this year was a big improvement over last year. the arch is going up. Not as fast as many would want (lot of Veruca Salt's when it comes to prospects) and certainly not with the goal scoring. But he's trending up and that's a good sign for a 20 year old with his size & potential.
 
And you are the person who has taken over the Axl/SN task of defending the job Blake is doing? You don’t understand how people aren’t happy with Blake?
No <3 (I am not that person and absolutely do understand the frustration with Blake - I did defend Blake earlier this week but after giving it more thought, reading some solid points from others, and hearing he went against the scouting staff to draft Turcotte, I'm more critical)

Blake and co have made a number of mistakes - And some of those mistakes are pretty damning (Petersen contract and Turcotte pick particularly) and definitely could justify Blake losing his job (now or within the next year or two).

I'm just the guy that still believes in Byfield and Kaliyev becoming elite players and thinks there's a few other prospects that still have a chance to pan out pretty well as well - Which makes the overall outlook for this team's future pretty solid if those things happen. Also believe Clarke is HIM which will make our defense mad sexy n stuff as soon as next year.

Also, in terms of "the plan" and why they would draft Byfield over potentially more NHL ready players - I agree there's some inconsistency there - And also agree that Blake & Co in general have had issues with a clear vision (Ex: Adding veteran players that then block prospects from getting ice time).

But "the plan" was always to compete for the division this year, and compete for the conference next year.... That is still very much on the table and still does line up with Byfield's timeline (of likely 'arriving' next season).

IF Byfield does arrive next season (which he definitely could), and lets say emerges as a solid 2nd line center behind Kopitar and puts up say 60 points (with still even more untapped potential as he'd still be only 21 years old next year)..... the Kings are ABSOLUTELY a top team in the west. That would mean Danault is the 3rd line center- which would mean better center depth than quite literally every single other team in the NHL. It's a big 'if' obviously, and Blake's job probably depends on it, but it's not impossible.

My best guess is that when they drafted Byfield, they envisioned Turcotte as a guy who could play 2nd or 3rd line center sooner rather than later (again, a big misjudgment on their part). Turcotte was always seen as a 'safe' pick - As a guy who's FLOOR was likely solid 3rd line center (that's 100% what most scouts/teams were saying going into the 2019 draft). Looks like that evaluation was very wrong.. It happens, life goes on.

But anyways.... So they probably thought: "Okay so we have Kopitar and we have Turcotte (or Vilardi) who can hopefully play 2nd line center behind Kopi. Let's draft Byfield, a big 6'5 center who might take some time but we can be patient with since we're not expecting to really compete for a cup until 2023 or 2024 anyways. We envision Byfield as a guy who can be an absolute beast and the future of the team and we expect him to really start to hit his stride and begin reaching his full potential around the time Kopitar's contract will be coming up."

Then they probably realized they couldn't realllllly bet on Turcotte - And had questions about Vilardi - So they went out and signed a solid 2nd line center in Danault. To me, the Danault signing is the biggest indicator that they likely knew Byfield probably wouldn't be ready for a major role for a couple years.

Obviously I'm just spit-balling on a lot of this but I really think Turcotte seemingly busting threw a big wrench in "the plan". But at the end of the day, only management really knows what the thought process/hope was in some of these moves.
 
Some of the comments on Byfield are such extremes. I wonder if that's simply due to frustrations...or maybe meant as hyperbole. IDK. Just odd.
Sure the dude has not scored enough -- he's been a bit of a disappointment to this point compared to his draft position and compared to "that other guy". But to write him off or to not acknowledge that he hasn't progressed -- seems like an effort of trying to be right or maybe just feed up with the (justified) crap show with FO on prospects & their development.
Yeah it's been a slow burn. But this year was a big improvement over last year. the arch is going up. Not as fast as many would want (lot of Veruca Salt's when it comes to prospects) and certainly not with the goal scoring. But he's trending up and that's a good sign for a 20 year old with his size & potential.

It’s not been an extreme. The fact is he has been, along with Kyle Turris the least effective Top 3 pick through 3 seasons in the last 19 years since the last lockout.

I think calling it a slow burn is more of an unfair take than anything Sol and SettementRichie have said.

You are free to have faith, that is your opinion, and hopefully you are right. But almost all the negative takes are rooted in statistics and historical comparisons, while the positive ones are mostly rooted in faith, outliers and projection.
 
My best guess is that when they drafted Byfield, they envisioned Turcotte as a guy who could play 2nd or 3rd line center sooner rather than later (again, a big misjudgment on their part). Turcotte was always seen as a 'safe' pick - As a guy who's FLOOR was likely solid 3rd line center (that's 100% what most scouts/teams were saying going into the 2019 draft). Looks like that evaluation was very wrong.. It happens, life goes on.
Also, just to add on (it's a freaking novel already so might as well lol)...

I think the fact that they 'allowed' Turcotte to turn pro after his freshman season at Wisconsin (a season where he was overall pretty impressive - nearly a point/game player as a freshman) also supports this.

It seems pretty clear they had visions of him playing in the NHL sooner rather than later at the time. Unfortunately it really didn't pan out that way - Thus the whole wrench in the plan thing.
 
Also, just to add on (it's a freaking novel already so might as well lol)...

I think the fact that they 'allowed' Turcotte to turn pro after his freshman season at Wisconsin (a season where he was overall pretty impressive - nearly a point/game player as a freshman) also supports this.

It seems pretty clear they had visions of him playing in the NHL sooner rather than later at the time. Unfortunately it really didn't pan out that way - Thus the whole wrench in the plan thing.

Lighting up Arizona St, Nebraska-Omaha and Merrimack while being invisible vs teams with NHL draft picks does not make someone close to being NHL ready.

Having him in Ontario instead of Madison significantly delayed his NHL arrival and quite possibly completely derailed it, it didn’t fast-track it.

But example 127475839 that the Kings just want to get everyone into the AHL asap to get them into system players.
 
Lighting up Arizona St, Nebraska-Omaha and Merrimack while being invisible vs teams with NHL draft picks does not make someone close to being NHL ready.

Having him in Ontario instead of Madison significantly delayed his NHL arrival and quite possibly completely derailed it, it didn’t fast-track it.

But example 127475839 that the Kings just want to get everyone into the AHL asap to get them into system players.
Oh I very much agree it was a mistake having Turcotte turn pro after 1 NCAA season.

I'm not saying turning pro fast tracked his development??

I'm saying it somewhat hints at the idea that management thought he was more NHL ready than he was and likely had visions of him playing 2nd or 3rd line center before Byfield.

But again, who knows
 
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Oh I very much agree it was a mistake having Turcotte turn pro after 1 NCAA season.

I'm not saying turning pro fast tracked his development??

I'm saying it somewhat hints at the idea that management thought he was more NHL ready than he was and likely had visions of him playing 2nd or 3rd line center before Byfield.

But again, who knows

It had nothing to do with the player or what was best for them and everything to do with an extremely flawed organizational philosophy that the Kings have under Rob Blake, Luc Robitaille, Nelson Emerson and Glen Murray (funny how the most qualified people for these positions are all best buddies)

Had the Kings won the lottery in 2019 and drafted Jack Hughes they would have had him in the AHL. We already know the Devils strategy of having him in the NHL despite not being ready to contribute much has produced a superstar player. Would the Kings AHL heavy strategy have worked as well? We don’t know, but it’s extremely unlikely it would have worked as well or as quickly as the NJD’s NHL one did. Stutzle wasn’t really a comp here because the rumors were TS was returning to Germany if he didn’t make the NHL. So the Kings wouldn’t have had the chance to ruin him with Nelly and Muzz.

Had the Sens drafted QB in 2020 he is in the NHL that season. He is through 3 seasons in the NHL and probably close to 200 NHL games depending on injury. Is he a star in the NHL? I mean probably not, but I think we can safely say he isn’t historically unproductive if handled traditionally. The missing out on being able to grow at the NHL level in 2021 in a low pressure situation was a big big loss.

Had the Kings drafted Matt Boldy or Cole Caufield they would have had them in the AHL at 19 instead of back in college. Can we say the results would have been the same for both these players (big time offensive stars almost right away)? I’m not saying they would be Turcotte right now, but it’s very unlikely they would have been this good this fast without the second college year.

Had Turcotte been drafted by the Wild or Canadiens there is no way he isn’t returned to Wisconsin for his sophomore year. How does he look in those organizations right now? Again I don’t think there was ever a Toews or Richards type forward in his future, but is he a pretty good bottom 6 forward with some energy, grit and a little skill by now if handled differently? I think so. The Kings sure could have used someone like that over Lizotte and Kupari in the playoffs.

And this is why many of us are terrified of what is going to happen with Clarke, who is probably the most talented player the Kings have drafted since Doughty. We are all worried that like QB and Turcotte that Blake and his buddies are going to cause serious damage to a player who has upside to be a point per game defenseman in the NHL if just handled correctly.

There is absolutely no reason at all that Clarke should be in the AHL next season. Good organizations move on from players like Walker and Durzi to fit talents like this in, they don’t damage the players potential because he is waiver eligible or because they don’t want to trade Sean f’n Walker to make room for him.

Every other fanbase in the NHL would excitingly penciling in Clarke into the lineup, discussing how he will help the team and we can’t do that because it’s more likely than not he is “learning the system” and “paying his dues” in Ontario.
 
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I don't see the mental fragility you do, and comparing expectations of Byfield to a hall of famer like Kopitar is incredibly unfair.
But you do get the gist of what I’m saying though right ? Players usually drafted that high show a good amount of what makes them special. I think almost everyone can agree there’s nothing really about byfield that anyone can point to and say yeah that’s why he’s drafted second overall.

I think what it is for me either people just agree he was drafted too high or point to me what is it about his game that a select few that gives them that much hope in him. The random few nice passes that I can count on my hand per season? what makes him special ?

Don’t point to his stats because I think you can break that down a few different games. But when you watch him play, what is it that he does that gives people so much hope? There’s no skill he has that is special that I’ve seen. Am i missing something
 
But you do get the gist of what I’m saying though right ? Players usually drafted that high show a good amount of what makes them special. I think almost everyone can agree there’s nothing really about byfield that anyone can point to and say yeah that’s why he’s drafted second overall.

I think what it is for me either people just agree he was drafted too high or point to me what is it about his game that a select few that gives them that much hope in him. The random few nice passes that I can count on my hand per season? what makes him special ?

Don’t point to his stats because I think you can break that down a few different games. But when you watch him play, what is it that he does that gives people so much hope? There’s no skill he has that is special that I’ve seen. Am i missing something


Sol

I'm being nice

If you DONT see him skating fast enough that no opponents can catch him

If you DONT occasionally see him 'playing big' enough in a way that no one can take a puck from him

If you DONT ever see his ridiculous hands in tight spaces

If you DONT see his pronger-like reach breaking up plays before they start

If you discount those nice passes and the elevation of his linemates and the occasional rink-shaking bodycheck

Then yes, you're missing something.

The question will of course be can he put it all together consistently. That, and watching how he used it vs. his peers in juniors, is what gives us hope about the translatability since he's shown he CAN do it against men. I'm comfortable with people arguing he won't, it doesn't happen enough for their tastes, etc., I just disagree. But to pretend his skillset is 100% unimpressive is gaslighting, it blows my mind that anyone can pretend these things just aren't happening at all.
 
But you do get the gist of what I’m saying though right ? Players usually drafted that high show a good amount of what makes them special. I think almost everyone can agree there’s nothing really about byfield that anyone can point to and say yeah that’s why he’s drafted second overall.

I think what it is for me either people just agree he was drafted too high or point to me what is it about his game that a select few that gives them that much hope in him. The random few nice passes that I can count on my hand per season? what makes him special ?

Don’t point to his stats because I think you can break that down a few different games. But when you watch him play, what is it that he does that gives people so much hope? There’s no skill he has that is special that I’ve seen. Am i missing something
Yes, I get the gist of what you're saying. And yes, usually players taken 2nd overall have better numbers in their D+3 season. I can't defend it other than hope they get better.

As for what he does to give hope? He's played better this season than previous ones. His D+1, he was skating by guys and casually poking his stick out to free up the puck. He now attacks the puck carrier more closely and doesn't depend on the shit that got him by in juniors.

People were complaining he only scores off the rush, but he had plenty of touches in the front of the net that just didn't go in yet. He's not just skating the puck on entry and shooting it at the net.

He is improving his puck protection and learning his limits - he sometimes gets himself in trouble still, but he still is making more space for himself.

His playmaking has improved. You can see there are many times he knows what he wants to do with the puck before he gets it, as he redistributes or directs the puck even under pressure, but there's less panic to his game.

So, my hope with Byfield isn't that he'll be the face of the franchise or that he'll be an all-star. And maybe I should have higher expectations on a second overall pick. But with different players who are actual busts, I just enjoy the journey of watching the prospects grow.

That's not to say I have zero expectations, but until a player stops growing their game or addresses weaknesses, I just continue to hope to see growth, because so far I'm still seeing it.
 
The question will of course be can he put it all together consistently. That, and watching how he used it vs. his peers in juniors, is what gives us hope about the translatability since he's shown he CAN do it against men. I'm comfortable with people arguing he won't, it doesn't happen enough for their tastes, etc., I just disagree. But to pretend his skillset is 100% unimpressive is gaslighting, it blows my mind that anyone can pretend these things just aren't happening at all.
cause they're stat watching :sarcasm:
 
cause they're stat watching :sarcasm:


I know this is tongue in cheek but

If you go back to that PPG stretch when the entire first line was on absolute fire and it was primary assist after primary assist, it was still 'unimpressive.' So I'm gonna take solace in the fact that people said this about Kopitar until his 94 point season.

And for those who want to keep pretending he was carried by the first line instead of amplifying it

VERY clear evidence that him and Kopitar amplified each other and were a LARGE order of magnitude better together.

1683156861900.png


I mean it's not like we need more proof that you need to play high skill players iwth other high skill players but here we are

That's one of the reasons Vilardi/Byfield work so well together too, lots of sneaky little passes and plays
 
I know this is tongue in cheek but

If you go back to that PPG stretch when the entire first line was on absolute fire and it was primary assist after primary assist, it was still 'unimpressive.' So I'm gonna take solace in the fact that people said this about Kopitar until his 94 point season.

And for those who want to keep pretending he was carried by the first line instead of amplifying it

VERY clear evidence that him and Kopitar amplified each other and were a LARGE order of magnitude better together.

View attachment 702515

I mean it's not like we need more proof that you need to play high skill players iwth other high skill players but here we are

That's one of the reasons Vilardi/Byfield work so well together too, lots of sneaky little passes and plays
I'd like to see Byfield and Vilardi play an entire season together honestly. Call it whatever you'd like, but his stint on the Kopitar line (while very productive) will always give me pause because of the consistent greatness of Kopitar. He's made a career out of everyone on his line having their best seasons only to be invisible when off of his line.

I want to see Byfield do it independent of him (preferably with skilled players like you mention). Not just to "prove it", but because Kopitar isn't going to be that guy forever. He needs to build with another young dude with skill.
 
I don't see the mental fragility you do, and comparing expectations of Byfield to a hall of famer like Kopitar is incredibly unfair.
But what is a fair expectation for drafting a player #2 overall?

There are certainly plenty of Hall of Fame caliber players who have been taken that high, so I don’t see why it’s totally unreasonable.

But if Kopitar is unreasonable, how about a guy like PLD or Tyler Seguin? These guys aren’t HOF players, should QB be on the same level as these guys after 3 years?

Matt Duchene?
JVR?
Nolan Patrick?
Nail Yakupov?

He’s behind all of them at the same stage. From the guys who ended up huge stars to the guys who ended up huge busts and everyone in between.
 
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But what is a fair expectation for drafting a player #2 overall?

There are certainly plenty of Hall of Fame caliber players who have been taken that high, so I don’t see why it’s totally unreasonable.

But if Kopitar is unreasonable, how about a guy like PLD or Tyler Seguin? These guys aren’t HOF players, should QB be on the same level as these guys after 3 years?

Matt Duchene?
JVR?
Nolan Patrick?
Nail Yakupov?

He’s behind all of them at the same stage. From the guys who ended up huge stars to the guys who ended up huge busts and everyone in between.

I think that's fair, but you're also illustrating that early breakouts don't guarantee anything.

PLD broke out at 20, and plateaued.
Seguin put up more points early, but didn't become Seguin we know until age 22.
Duchene really only had seasons of note at 20 and 23 then disappeared until 31, he's also 5'11 and a completely different player
JVR put up 35 points at 20, 40 at 21, 45 pace at 22, 54 pace at 23, and finally 61 at 24, so this might be a closer comparison than you wanted it to be
Yakupov...compleeeeetly different situations.

Why is a Draisaitl trajectory so unrealistic to you? Why does it HAVE to be like PLD/Seguin et. al.?

I think it's very fair of you to say it's unCOMMON, but you're acting like it's unPRECEDENTED when plenty of models of big guys breaking out later exist, including that study that extremely big guys take 400 games.

I'd even add I think it's VERY fair for you and others to say you're disappointed SO FAR.
 
You guys are crazy. Byfield can’t even buy a pack of cigarettes yet. Hie first year he only played 5 games. That count for shit. Second year was coming off a broken ankle. Do you guys not rennet at the beginning of the year the f***ing koala bear had him on the 3rd line centering non scorers and was only playing 8 minutes a game. Next year Byfield with Vilardi are going to crush it.
 
Sol

I'm being nice

If you DONT see him skating fast enough that no opponents can catch him

If you DONT occasionally see him 'playing big' enough in a way that no one can take a puck from him

If you DONT ever see his ridiculous hands in tight spaces

If you DONT see his pronger-like reach breaking up plays before they start

If you discount those nice passes and the elevation of his linemates and the occasional rink-shaking bodycheck

Then yes, you're missing something.

The question will of course be can he put it all together consistently. That, and watching how he used it vs. his peers in juniors, is what gives us hope about the translatability since he's shown he CAN do it against men. I'm comfortable with people arguing he won't, it doesn't happen enough for their tastes, etc., I just disagree. But to pretend his skillset is 100% unimpressive is gaslighting, it blows my mind that anyone can pretend these things just aren't happening at all.
No I dont think he’s fast. Jeff Carter was fast. Byfield isn’t even close to Carter who was a big guy who could move.

No I don’t think Byfields puck protection improved much at all with how often little guy would move him off the puck. And I’m being honest when I say Lizotte has better puck protection.

Well he has good reach but he’s also in the wrong place as well.

And I have no idea what on earth you’re talking about his ridiculously good hands in tight. Are you talking about the few times this season he made a couple nifty passes? Did you forget how often the puck with explode off his stick and how many times he’d lose possession?


Name me one or two things he does better than Lizotte.

Lizzo- better shot
Lizzo- better hands
Lizzo- better puck protection

He might be a little bit faster than Lizzo but Jeff Giuliano was also faster than Byfield.

There’s a loooot left to be desired from byfields game. Being on a line with the best center on the Kings and best goal scorer on the Kings, Byfield was very seldom an equal on that line. He did make a nice pass to Kopitar that one game but it’s so infrequent that he does anything that I remember that.
 
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No I dont think he’s fast. Jeff Carter was fast. Byfield isn’t even close to Carter who was a big guy who could move.

No I don’t think Byfields puck protection improved much at all with how often little guy would move him off the puck. And I’m being honest when I say Lizotte has better puck protection.

Well he has good reach but he’s also in the wrong place as well.

And I have no idea what on earth you’re talking about his ridiculously good hands in tight. Are you talking about the few times this season he made a couple nifty passes? Did you forget how often the puck with explode off his stick and how many times he’d lose possession?


Name me one or two things he does better than Lizotte.

Lizzo- better shot
Lizzo- better hands
Lizzo- better puck protection

He might be a little bit faster than Lizzo but Jeff Giuliano was also faster than Byfield.

There’s a loooot left to be desired from byfields game. Being on a line with the best center on the Kings and best goal scorer on the Kings, Byfield was very seldom an equal on that line. He did make a nice pass to Kopitar that one game but it’s so infrequent that he does anything that I remember that.


Well if you don't see any of those things ever happening then there's nothing for me to discuss with you and I guess we'll just have to say time will tell.
 
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Gonna bring this in again since it's been a while






"Over the years he's refined his formula with some help from his community to arrive at something that was more accurate :

- An average-sized player (between 5'10 and 6'2, or between 171 and 214 pounds) will start to break through after 200 regular season games.

-Smaller-sized (less than 5'10 / 171) AND Bigger-size players (more than 6'2 / 214) need 400 NHL regular season games.


This proved to be somewhat accurate in like 70-75% of players with them breaking out in some ways around those two threshold.

It is an average and not an exact science as it can happen around game 355 for some players or game 445 for some others. It is harder to predict if the 6'2 / 6'3 players will follow the 200 or 400 GP paths.

And depending on talent players break out in different ways than others."
 
But what is a fair expectation for drafting a player #2 overall?

There are certainly plenty of Hall of Fame caliber players who have been taken that high, so I don’t see why it’s totally unreasonable.

But if Kopitar is unreasonable, how about a guy like PLD or Tyler Seguin? These guys aren’t HOF players, should QB be on the same level as these guys after 3 years?

Matt Duchene?
JVR?
Nolan Patrick?
Nail Yakupov?

He’s behind all of them at the same stage. From the guys who ended up huge stars to the guys who ended up huge busts and everyone in between.
I know it's cliche, but I just want Byfield to be Byfield at this point. Sure, I had hopes that he'd come out the gates and set the world on fire, but I'm not going to hold that against him.

Since he hasn't set the world on fire, I just expect incremental improvements. I'd rather him get 45 points playing the way he is, than 60 points just getting secondary touches (obviously an exaggeration and not a reference to another player).

You can have whatever expectations you want. They'll either be met or not. Right now the Kings don't need him to be the 90+ point player. I'm expecting 45+ from him next season, considering his production so far and his current role. Pierre-Luc Dubois hit 61 points at Byfield's age, but only 49 points the following year. Would you have felt better if Byfield hit 60 points this season and reduced production next?

Eventually, you need to stop clinging onto his draft position to set expectations. They clearly weren't met. So, my expectations have been revised and I stated them. How are you revising yours? Or are you going to continue pointing out how disappointing he is because his career arc isn't aligning with other 2nd overall picks, regardless of how he grows and produces in the future?
 
But it’s with Kopitar and Kempe that the difference is striking. The expected goals rate for them with Byfield is 56.06 and 56.42 respectively. Without him, it’s 47.91 and 48.52. The actual goals are more decisive, with Kopitar (25-11) and Kempe (23-9) having a serious advantage since Byfield has joined them full-time.
 
No I dont think he’s fast. Jeff Carter was fast. Byfield isn’t even close to Carter who was a big guy who could move.
Agree on his speed. Really noticed it during the EDM series.. he couldnt skate around anyone and wasnt winning races to the boards for pucks.. Id say his speed is above average but not a huge weapon he can rely on like AKempe. He did play 75 games this season between A, NHL reg and post season..could be some fatigue and not being used to the grind.. still dont think he's going to be a burner... so his upside is a Joe Thornton type of game I think.
 

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