Prospect Info: Quinton Byfield (2nd Overall 2020 Draft) Discussion part II

[Herby]

You can have your opinion, that is fine. But the “we knew it would be like this” stuff is pure fiction created by people on this forum as an excuse for the poor results. You can go back and read the QB threads, the project comments were meant to mean he wouldn’t be a McDavid or Matthews type plug and play star, not that he’d be the least productive Top 2 pick through 3 seasons since the turn of the century. Or that he would take 4-5 seasons to be anything. The GM of the team on the night he was picked said that he “accelerated the rebuild”

Nobody expected results this poor through 3 seasons of pro hockey.

 

[KopitarGOAT420]

You can have your opinion, that is fine. But the “we knew it would be like this” stuff is pure fiction created by people on this forum as an excuse for the poor results. You can go back and read the QB threads, the project comments were meant to mean he wouldn’t be a McDavid or Matthews type plug and play star, not that he’d be the least productive Top 2 pick through 3 seasons since the turn of the century. Or that he would take 4-5 seasons to be anything. The GM of the team on the night he was picked said that he “accelerated the rebuild”

Nobody expected results this poor through 3 seasons of pro hockey.

We shall see my friend. We shall see.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

You can have your opinion, that is fine. But the “we knew it would be like this” stuff is pure fiction created by people on this forum as an excuse for the poor results. You can go back and read the QB threads, the project comments were meant to mean he wouldn’t be a McDavid or Matthews type plug and play star, not that he’d be the least productive Top 2 pick through 3 seasons since the turn of the century. Or that he would take 4-5 seasons to be anything. The GM of the team on the night he was picked said that he “accelerated the rebuild”

Nobody expected results this poor through 3 seasons of pro hockey.

I recall mentioning heavily the Leon Draisaitl path. He is a little behind, but I'm also chalking some of that up to injury/sickness. And LD had very similar "he's doing nothing out there" commentary.

Draisaitl:

QB:

It might surprise people to see that QB was ahead of Drai last year, though he paced off this year. And I don't expect QB to jump up to 70 points next year, but I think 50-60 is a reasonable expectation given health, and anything less could be seen as off-pace (I wouldn't be too surprised to see 40 if he continues this year, yet even I would consider that disappointing).

 

[KopitarGOAT420]

It might surprise people to see that QB was ahead of Drai last year, though he paced off this year. And I don't expect QB to jump up to 70 points next year, but I think 50-60 is a reasonable expectation given health, and anything less could be seen as off-pace (I wouldn't be too surprised to see 40 if he continues this year, yet even I would consider that disappointing).

Definitely agree.

I really hope they run Fiala-Byfield-Vilardi consistently next season. Especially if QB comes into camp looking like he's elevated his game.

That line has just an absurd amount of potential and Byfield will definitely put up points (which will really help his confidence) playing with Kev and Gabe.

 

[Scottkmlps]

Draisaitl:
View attachment 701814

QB:
View attachment 701816

It might surprise people to see that QB was ahead of Drai last year, though he paced off this year. And I don't expect QB to jump up to 70 points next year, but I think 50-60 is a reasonable expectation given health, and anything less could be seen as off-pace (I wouldn't be too surprised to see 40 if he continues this year, yet even I would consider that disappointing).

Hmmm....and look what happened the year McLellan was fired 20 games in by the Oilers. Draisaitl shot up to 50 goals & 105 points and hasn't looked back. Funny how those 2 things align.

 

[Nasti]

You can have your opinion, that is fine. But the “we knew it would be like this” stuff is pure fiction created by people on this forum as an excuse for the poor results. You can go back and read the QB threads, the project comments were meant to mean he wouldn’t be a McDavid or Matthews type plug and play star, not that he’d be the least productive Top 2 pick through 3 seasons since the turn of the century. Or that he would take 4-5 seasons to be anything. The GM of the team on the night he was picked said that he “accelerated the rebuild”

Nobody expected results this poor through 3 seasons of pro hockey.

Maybe I’m misunderstanding and I don’t know about threads on HF, but to say scouts and writers didn’t have him pegged as a guy who would take time isn’t accurate. You can just Google the articles.

 

[Eagle Fang]

You can have your opinion, that is fine. But the “we knew it would be like this” stuff is pure fiction created by people on this forum as an excuse for the poor results. You can go back and read the QB threads, the project comments were meant to mean he wouldn’t be a McDavid or Matthews type plug and play star, not that he’d be the least productive Top 2 pick through 3 seasons since the turn of the century. Or that he would take 4-5 seasons to be anything. The GM of the team on the night he was picked said that he “accelerated the rebuild”

Nobody expected results this poor through 3 seasons of pro hockey.

To be fair the first 2 seasons of pro hockey were limited and also include the ankle fracture. He played a total of about 90 games between the NHL and AHL.

Also to be fair, at the start of this season with Vilardi and Iaffalo, that was the teams best line by far. He also had a nice stretch on the Kopitar line.

He's shown flashes, but of course consistency is what matters. I've been a bit more negative on him lately, but you cannot deny the potential is there somewhere and why people argue it's too soon.

 

[KopitarGOAT420]

To be fair the first 2 seasons of pro hockey were limited and also include the ankle fracture. He played a total of about 90 games between the NHL and AHL.

Also to be fair, at the start of this season with Vilardi and Iaffalo, that was the teams best line by far. He also had a nice stretch on the Kopitar line.

He's shown flashes, but of course consistency is what matters. I've been a bit more negative on him lately, but you cannot deny the potential is there somewhere and why people argue it's too soon.

Good points here.

Consistency is often the most common 'issue' with young players. But as they get older and continue to round out their game, it often gets better and better.

I mean look at Gabe Vilardi for a perfect example. Coming into this season, he'd shown flashes too - But primarily struggled with consistency (as well as the defensive side of the game) and because of it, wasn't even a lock to make the Kings lineup.

Then he comes in this year and proves he can more consistently make those great plays and put up points (while playing strong D). Even Vilardi with the amazing year he had, tailed off a bit after his point per game start though the first 20 games or so - So even Gabe will still be trying to improve on the consistency aspect of his game next year.

I think another bright spot with QB that I'm not seeing talked about much is that he actually was pretty strong defensively for the most part. Of course he made some mistakes, but that was actually a pleasant surprise IMO.

I think we see a very similar story arc for Byfield. He'll use this off-season to polish up certain areas of his game and will be more consistent (and confident) because of it.

 

[Mats26]

Not worried about Byfield.
Next year he should center Fiala and Vilardi and he'll put up the pts we expect if the line stays healthy. Both QB and Vilardi should really break out soon + Clarke on the roster would be a major add to this team.

All other prospects though are subpar or on the verge of busting. Very concerning.

 

[johnjm22]

Season	Age	GP	G	A	PTS	PTS/60	CF%	FO%	SPCT
2020-21	18	6	0	1	1	0.7	48.6	39.4	0
2021-22	19	40	5	5	10	1.2	50.8	45.4	12.8
2022-23	20	53	3	19	22	1.8	55.9	47.2	4.1

Byfield scored at a 34 point pace this year.

He did that with a 1.7% shooting percentage at 5on5.

That's an indicator you could see a fairly significant increase in production next season.

You can see from above some of his metrics are improving.

 

[bouncesonly]

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Season[/TD]
[TD]Age[/TD]
[TD]GP[/TD]
[TD]G[/TD]
[TD]A[/TD]
[TD]PTS[/TD]
[TD]PTS/60[/TD]
[TD]CF%[/TD]
[TD]FO%[/TD]
[TD]SPCT[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2020-21[/TD]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]0.7[/TD]
[TD]48.6[/TD]
[TD]39.4[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2021-22[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD]40[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]1.2[/TD]
[TD]50.8[/TD]
[TD]45.4[/TD]
[TD]12.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2022-23[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]53[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]1.8[/TD]
[TD]55.9[/TD]
[TD]47.2[/TD]
[TD]4.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Byfield scored at a 34 point pace this year.

He did that with a 1.7% shooting percentage at 5on5.

That's an indicator you could see a fairly significant increase in production next season.

You can see from above some of his metrics are improving.

How many of those were empty net goals

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I'll be worried when he stops improving.

I understand that the rate is concerning for many...I'm willing to give him a pass for injury and illness. But even I want to see a jump this year. I know some say they see nothing and I can't agree with that, I see fits and starts of a dude with moxie who will choke slam Hedman for looking at him the wrong way contrasted with the timid sheep from Game 5(6?) who couldn't be bothered to stick check, a dude who went PPG for a stretch but then also a dude who put in 3 goals all year. Maybe the biggest mixed bag I've ever seen.

 

[Sol]

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Season[/TD]
[TD]Age[/TD]
[TD]GP[/TD]
[TD]G[/TD]
[TD]A[/TD]
[TD]PTS[/TD]
[TD]PTS/60[/TD]
[TD]CF%[/TD]
[TD]FO%[/TD]
[TD]SPCT[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2020-21[/TD]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]0.7[/TD]
[TD]48.6[/TD]
[TD]39.4[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2021-22[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD]40[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]1.2[/TD]
[TD]50.8[/TD]
[TD]45.4[/TD]
[TD]12.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2022-23[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]53[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]1.8[/TD]
[TD]55.9[/TD]
[TD]47.2[/TD]
[TD]4.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Byfield scored at a 34 point pace this year.

He did that with a 1.7% shooting percentage at 5on5.

That's an indicator you could see a fairly significant increase in production next season.

You can see from above some of his metrics are improving.

That’s not realistic. You have no idea how much that has to do with the line he’s on.

There’s not a single person on here that will tell you that Byfield looked like a second overall player. Not even the most devout Byfield supporter. Points aside, he looks terrible out there. He shows no indication of being a special player at all.

 

[AbsentMojo]

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Season[/TD]
[TD]Age[/TD]
[TD]GP[/TD]
[TD]G[/TD]
[TD]A[/TD]
[TD]PTS[/TD]
[TD]PTS/60[/TD]
[TD]CF%[/TD]
[TD]FO%[/TD]
[TD]SPCT[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2020-21[/TD]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]0.7[/TD]
[TD]48.6[/TD]
[TD]39.4[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2021-22[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD]40[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]1.2[/TD]
[TD]50.8[/TD]
[TD]45.4[/TD]
[TD]12.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2022-23[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]53[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]1.8[/TD]
[TD]55.9[/TD]
[TD]47.2[/TD]
[TD]4.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Byfield scored at a 34 point pace this year.

He did that with a 1.7% shooting percentage at 5on5.

That's an indicator you could see a fairly significant increase in production next season.

You can see from above some of his metrics are improving.

To me FO% is very important considering he was envisioned to be top 6 center... good to see that # going up... still not good enough, but lets where he tops out. Personally I have a hold on bust talk until mid next season.. just arbitrary point in time that made sense to me. My gut says he's a 60-70 point 2nd line center topped out.

 

[johnjm22]

Peoples lasting memory of QB this season will be heavily influenced by the last thing they saw; him playing poorly in the playoffs and getting demoted.

But there was progress there year. There was a solid 2 month span or so where he was having a very positive impact.

And no @Sol it wasn't purely because of linemates. Quite the opposite at one point actually. He was improving the 1st line, and playing his best hockey against better opponents. It was short lived though, I'll give you that.

I think there is plenty of reason to be concerned about Byfield, but I have seen flashes from him, and that's a good sign.

 

[King'sPawn]

That’s not realistic. You have no idea how much that has to do with the line he’s on.

While we don't know what line he's on, a 4% shooting percentage just isn't the norm for any player. You can project that, should his shooting percentage regress back to the norm, he'd score more.

 

[KopitarGOAT420]

He shows no indication of being a special player at all.

HARD disagree with this.

What about that beautiful between the legs tip pass to Kopitar against CBJ?? That was special.

Also had a Kopitar-like lob pass to Kempe for a breakaway goal.

That's two moments just off the top of my head that highlight his potential to be a special player. He's definitely shown flashes.

He's still just 20 years old. Still 6'5 / 220 lbs. Still a great skater. Still has great hands. Was more physical this year than anyone probably expected. Was better defensively this year than anyone expected. He still has the skills/toolset to be a phenomenal player when he puts it all together.

Has he been disappointing compared to other 2nd overall picks?? Sure. But it was always going to take time with Byfield. He was always a player drafted because of what he could be down the road vs what he was on draft day.

I get being concerned and I get having doubts. But to say he's shown nothing and looks terrible out there is just a bad assessment of the season he had. He's very clearly improving/progressing - Statistically and in terms of the eye test.

 

[SmytheKing]

While we don't know what line he's on, a 4% shooting percentage just isn't the norm for any player. You can project that, should his shooting percentage regress back to the norm, he'd score more.

If anyone has a sub to that shot charts site, I'd be curious to see where his shots are coming from. I think more important than the percentage is where he's taking his shots. From the games I saw, it seems a lot of his shots often came from outside of danger areas.

 

[Herby]

“Brock Faber was never signing in LA”

“You can see the Great Wall of China from Space”

“Only the McDavids of the world go straight to the NHL”

“Napoleon was short”

“Everyone knew it was always going to take 4-5 years for QB to make an impact”

 

[AbsentMojo]

“Brock Faber was never signing in LA”

“You can see the Great Wall of China from Space”

“Only the McDavids of the world go straight to the NHL”

“Napoleon was short”

“Everyone knew it was always going to take 4-5 years for QB to make an impact”

Are you giving clues on 10,000 pyramid?

 

[KopitarGOAT420]

“Everyone knew it was always going to take 4-5 years for QB to make an impact”

Lmaooooo - I mean he's already made an impact. He played on the top line for multiple months and during that stretch our top line was really great for the most part.

No one is saying 4-5 years to do anything. But I do feel like the expectation was pretty much always "It's probably going to take 4-5 years before he starts to reach his full potential and be a difference maker at the NHL level."

We're not there yet but we'll get there. Prob this coming season

 

[Herby]

Lmaooooo - I mean he's already made an impact. He played on the top line for multiple months and during that stretch our top line was really great for the most part.

No one is saying 4-5 years to do anything. But I do feel like the expectation was pretty much always "It's probably going to take 4-5 years before he starts to reach his full potential and be a difference maker at the NHL level."

We're not there yet but we'll get there. Prob this coming season

So just so I understand what you are saying.

Rob Blake committed to rebuilding a championship caliber team before Kopitar and Doughty’s primes ended. Correct?

Rob Blake then proceeded to draft a player with a ***#2 OVERALL PICK** who wasn’t going to be ready to be an impact player until Kopitar’s last season under contract at age 36 (at the very earliest).

And you are the person who has taken over the Axl/SN task of defending the job Blake is doing? You don’t understand how people aren’t happy with Blake?

These things completely 100% contradict each other. And they contradict each other because there was ZERO CHANCE the Kings used a #2 pick on a player that was 4-5 seasons from making an impact while trying to win with players in their mid 30’s making 8 figures a season.

Why on Earth would you draft a 4-5 year project when you are trying to compete in those guys small window of good years left. Please explain how this line of thinking makes any sense?

You and others have moved the goalposts so much in trying to defend Blake, that instead of saying he’s a terrible drafter and makes terrible development decisions you have inadvertently made him look even more incompetent than his biggest detractors think.

 

[Sol]

While we don't know what line he's on, a 4% shooting percentage just isn't the norm for any player. You can project that, should his shooting percentage regress back to the norm, he'd score more.

If it does. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a more mentally fragile player than Byfield. The amount of dips he takes and unravels is on Cal Petersen levels. That doesn’t just go away.

Kopitar was an impact player his rookie season. Byfield has shown pretty much nothing.

 

[Nasti]

So just so I understand what you are saying.

Rob Blake committed to rebuilding a championship caliber team before Kopitar and Doughty’s primes ended. Correct?

Rob Blake then proceeded to draft a player with a ***#2 OVERALL PICK** who wasn’t going to be ready to be an impact player until Kopitar’s last season under contract at age 36 (at the very earliest).

And you are the person who has taken over the Axl/SN task of defending the job Blake is doing? You don’t understand how people aren’t happy with Blake?

These things completely 100% contradict each other. And they contradict each other because there was ZERO CHANCE the Kings used a #2 pick on a player that was 4-5 seasons from making an impact while trying to win with players in their mid 30’s making 8 figures a season.

Why on Earth would you draft a 4-5 year project when you are trying to compete in those guys small window of good years left. Please explain how this line of thinking makes any sense?

You and others have moved the goalposts so much in trying to defend Blake, that instead of saying he’s a terrible drafter and makes terrible development decisions you have inadvertently made him look even more incompetent than his biggest detractors think.

You’re conflating Byfield’s draft day projections by all scouts and writers with what Rob Blake’s hopes/intentions as the Kings GM are. No one credible thought he would be Evgeni Malkin in his first or second year.

 

[Herby]

You’re conflating Byfield’s draft day projections by all scouts and writers with what Rob Blake’s hopes/intentions as the Kings GM are. No one credible thought he would be Evgeni Malkin in his first or second year.

Correct, nobody thought he would be a plug and play star.

Incorrect, nobody thought he would be a 4-5 year project. Not the GM of the team who said this accelerated the rebuild, not fans on this forum who all had him as the 1C by now in their hypothetical lineups.

The person I replied to has said on numerous occasions he doesn’t understand why people are unhappy with Blake. And then in this thread says that everyone knew QB was a 4-5 year project, this coming from the same GM who’s stated goal was to win another championship with 11 and 8. If the Byfield 4-5 year development were truth on draft night and not something invented about a year ago that is complete and total incompetence by Blake. Right?