Gurglesons
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Yeah, I think that's like he hits everything we absolutely could want from him.
Prospect Info: Prospect Rating #3 (2024 Version) - NOTICE: please change your vote to Pickering or Koivunen
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Yeah, I think that's like he hits everything we absolutely could want from him.
I initially wasn't going to vote as I just don't know the prospects we got from the Canes well enough - then I was going to go Murashov but saw that made no sense given the voting - and went with Pickering.
As best I can tell, Pickering and Koivunen have the same ceiling but very different floors. Throw in the rarity of big mobile do it all dmen vs skilled forwards with no great athleticism, and it seemed easy to me.
As best I can tell, Pickering and Koivunen have the same ceiling but very different floors. Throw in the rarity of big mobile do it all dmen vs skilled forwards with no great athleticism, and it seemed easy to me.
Big Friggin Dummy
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Koivunen seems like he realistically tops out as a 3rd liner. Pickering seems like he realistically tops out as a middle pairing guy. Flip a coin pretty much, imo.
CheckingLineCenter
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Gurglesons
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I take a middle pairing guy over a third liner every day.
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I mean, he might. But looking at his recent season in Liiga compared to say, Bryan Rust at a similar age, what's Rust showing that Koivunen isn't?
I guess I don't get why people think his ceiling is a 3rd liner. Seems like a masochist pessimism viewpoint.
Winger yes, center no. I’m a firm believer of building down the middle. I would like to see Koivunen play a little more of the North American before putting him ahead of Pickering.
CheckingLineCenter
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Skating, tenacity, overall athleticism. 1 and 3 are a pretty large part of evaluation.
DesertPenguin
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I very specifically remember people complaining about Rust when we drafted him, because his ceiling was perceived to be as a third liner. Might as well take swings for boom or bust prospects in round 3 instead of drafting a guy who peaks out as a 3rd line plugger. He proved those opinions wrong. Koivunen might too.
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All I ever remember about Rust was speed. I don't recall anyone ranting and raving about tenacity or athleticism during his junior year at ND.
And this wasn't meant to shit on Rust, I'm just saying that at 21 after a PPG season and PPG playoff in Liiga, suggesting that he tops out as a 3rd liner is a little odd. Not saying he's a bonafide 1st line blue chipper but I think there are reasons to be optimistic.
Gurglesons
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Big difference between scoring in the leagues Rust was and what Koivunen is doing.
Both had similar impacts in their Under 18 international play. I think Rust was always viewed at the high end of his potential as a Dustin Brown / Chris Kuntiz utility player though.
I'm not sure there is really an archetype that Koivunen fits in as far as his NHL play.
He's that typical Euro tweener who doesn't have the skill to be an elite top six forward, doesn't have the size or physicality to be a bottom six banger. He's just that weird Kahun / Simon type that will probably produce, but largely empty calories.
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Ugene Magic
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I think it's fair to say Pickering has won this slot.
Next up is Ponomarev
Next up is Ponomarev
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Gurglesons
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Ugene Magic
EVIL LAUGH
CheckingLineCenter
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bolded- but that doesn’t mean it wasn’t there?
I don’t agree that if you were able to run a 1000 simulations, Koivunen’s best year(s) are as a 3rd liner. I do agree that his profile needs to score, and do so at an efficient/high rate, to be valuable. I also agree Liiga is really bad these days. And scoring consistently in the national league is the hardest thing to do in hockey so it’s hard to be highly confident in a player like this. Especially when knocks on him are size, skating, strength, athleticism. And his previous AHL stint did not go well.
He’s a legit prospect but there’s not a multitude of things he can be in the NHL, at least not from what I’ve seen. It’s good scoring winger if he hits. Not going to be a Brandon Tanev type. So middle 6 points guy that lacks physical tools and needs the right linemates to not be an empty calorie scorer feels like a safe middle ground… and what is that worth?
Hence that knocks him down below Pickering, Ponomarev for me. Neither absolutely have to rely on production to have some value, or at least that’s how they profile at this juncture.
Ponomarevs AHL stats are meh. This team has really acquired a lot mid prospects.
BlindWillyMcHurt
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Gurglesons
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@CheckingLineCenter outlined a lot of reasons why people that actually follow prospects would have concerns about Koivunen's game. Saying "he's 21." is not an argument.
Carolina has been really succesful with Ponomarev's draft archetype. I'd be excited about him if we didn't have 4 bottom six centers blocking his way. If we move out Eller or Acciari, I think he makes the line-up in a 4th line role. Either him or Poulin tbh.
CheckingLineCenter
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Thanks for ignoring my post. Pickering is 20 btw
All of these players have a myriad of future outcomes and they’re all fairly close in terms of current value. I just prefer the other two guys as skaters at this juncture because I think they’re more athletic which I place a ton of value on.
The whole point of my post isn’t that he’ll never score 60 points in the NHL, there’s just reasons he may not and other guys check more boxes for me right now.
Yes, how many times do you think Sully muttered to himself, "If only I had a team full of Harkins, Porters, and Nietos . . . "
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