Salary Cap: Projected 84-88.2 Million Next Year

[JT AM da real deal]

You think players will leave millions of dollars on the table for a C on their jersey?

Yes and you are going to see it with Pietro.

 

[Dekes For Days]

This season proved that 40 million to 4 players as forwards just doesn't work.

This season didn't show that at all.

 

[seanlinden]

There will be a major overhaul to better use our cap dollars. This season proved that 40 million to 4 players as forwards just doesn't work.

My guess is Marner is dealt for a stud dman that is signed long term for around 6 million a season. Along with this dman we will get another winger with size, speed and youth to replace him on wing.

Other players like Kerfoot, Johnsson and Dermott will also be dealt in separate deals to build and fill voids on bottom 6 of forward lines and another dman.

I believe its in the Leafs best interest to that the cap goes up as much as possible. Build around the following: Matthews, Tavares, Nylander, Kapanen, Engvall, Mickheyev, Reilly, Muzzin, Sandin, Holl, Andersen and Campbell. Everyone else is fair game.

Bring back players like Spezza and Clifford for 4th line.

This means 4 new forwards and 2 new dmen.

But build and get it right this time.

This season, assuming it ends with us going out in the 1st round of the playoffs, isn't going to cause Dubas to completely blow up his vision for the team.

They're simply not bad enough, and it's far too easy to blame substantial injuries to the shallower part of the team, and backup goalie that required them to over-work Andersen.

Plus, its much easier and lower risk (from a job security standpoint) to take the likes of AJ, KK, Kerfoot, Dermott, Ceci and Barrie -- throw a few of them into a metaphorical trade and free agent blender, and come up with solutions (or at least, believable solutions) to the Leafs problems.

 

[Legion34]

Yes and you are going to see it with Pietro.

what do you mean?

 

[Loosie]

The cap is bailing him out, dependent on how the NHLPA deals with the escrow issue moving forward.

I mean, you can only expect the cap to go up.

 

[hamzarocks]

This season didn't show that at all.

If we don't win a round in the playoffs it will add some substance to that belief. Though one year sample is probably too short and the claim of having four forwards making 40 million is randomly specific. Teams probably have had a group of 4 forwards making 45-50% of the cap and won the cup. Dont see the extra 2-3% our core 4 are getting as being a big enough difference to support the 40 million claim. We need to see how a fully healthy *as a team can be come playoffs leafs team performs. If we fail need some sort of change in roster construction

If we fail to make noise this year should make a retool move. If there is no change in our playoff fortunes by next year we should make a management change and shake up the core with one of the big 4 forwards dealt.

 

[DarkKnight]

I mean, you can only expect the cap to go up.

Sure, it’s the gradient I’m referring too.

 

[Loosie]

Sure, it’s the gradient I’m referring too.

Eh...I'm still not that surprised by it. People thought it was supposed to be higher than it ended up being this year. This could just be an adjustment for that.

 

[DarkKnight]

Eh...I'm still not that surprised by it. People thought it was supposed to be higher than it ended up being this year. This could just be an adjustment for that.

Okay I’ll go review all your predictions.

 

[Big Muddy]

Eh...I'm still not that surprised by it. People thought it was supposed to be higher than it ended up being this year. This could just be an adjustment for that.

I think you'll find that the players still hate the escrow just as much now as they did last year.

To get to that $88 m cap limit, the players are going to have drastically change their position and suddenly start loving escrow and vote for a 5% escalator.

If the players opt for .5% (or 1%) escalator, the number will be around $85 m (& change). Think people might end up being disappointed thinking the upper limit will be $88 m.

 

[4thline]

There will be a major overhaul to better use our cap dollars. This season proved that 40 million to 4 players as forwards just doesn't work.

My guess is Marner is dealt for a stud dman that is signed long term for around 6 million a season. Along with this dman we will get another winger with size, speed and youth to replace him on wing.

No it doesn't. There are plenty of viable competitive d-cores in the league that are in the ballpark of our allocated d-spend.

Defensemen 21-30 signed for 5.5-6.5 million with 4 or more years left on their contract:
Fowler, Ellis, Schmidt, Lindell. That's the list

Is this who you were picturing? Which is available? What winger would come with them?
Real life is a lot more difficult than envisioning an ideal commodity and assuming that it is available in volume.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

what do you mean?

I think he will resign with Blues for 7M per for 8 years ... maybe in talk time period before July 1st ... who knows maybe there is an insane offer out there like a one in forever offer ... but likely there won't be and he will keep his wife happy

 

[The CyNick]

Yes and you are going to see it with Pietro.

Let me know the discount that the C gets you after you've calculated it.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I think he will resign with Blues for 7M per for 8 years ... maybe in talk time period before July 1st ... who knows maybe there is an insane offer out there like a one in forever offer ... but likely there won't be and he will keep his wife happy

You think it's only going to be 7M. He's going to give the Blues that big of a discount? I would guess the Blues have already offered at least 8

 

[Legion34]

I think you'll find that the players still hate the escrow just as much now as they did last year.

To get to that $88 m cap limit, the players are going to have drastically change their position and suddenly start loving escrow and vote for a 5% escalator.

If the players opt for .5% (or 1%) escalator, the number will be around $85 m (& change). Think people might end up being disappointed thinking the upper limit will be $88 m.

well there are 2 things that affect it more than other years.

1.) lockout protection. Many players for this year took lower salaries. So that they wouldn’t lose it in the event of a lockout.


Salaries would be lower this year. Making escrow less


2.) the impending expansion/tv deals.


The cap will skyrocket then. So all the players who are up this year may push for an increased cap this year.

imagine you were negotiating on an 84 cap when the guy they next year might get to negotiate on 90-95. They may want to push the cap this year. To make it more even. ESP in a low escrow year

 

[Dekes For Days]

If we don't win a round in the playoffs it will add some substance to that belief.

We're going to be facing the likely 2nd best team in the league, and it would essentially be a sample size of one. It really says nothing about the methodology. Teams lose in the playoffs to better teams all the time. Teams lose in the playoffs to worse team all the time.

 

[Big Muddy]

well there are 2 things that affect it more than other years.

1.) lockout protection. Many players for this year took lower salaries. So that they wouldn’t lose it in the event of a lockout.


Salaries would be lower this year. Making escrow less


2.) the impending expansion/tv deals.


The cap will skyrocket then. So all the players who are up this year may push for an increased cap this year.

imagine you were negotiating on an 84 cap when the guy they next year might get to negotiate on 90-95. They may want to push the cap this year. To make it more even. ESP in a low escrow year

Players needing new contracts would like a higher cap of course. That happens every year, but I'd have to wonder what the percentage of players needing new contracts is versus the total amount of players? Guessing its a minority, but I don't have firm numbers (hence I phrased this as a question).

When you say "many" players took lower salaries, do you know how many did? Our guys certainly didn't. Again, I'd guess that's a pretty small number percentage wise.

I do know that 18 teams are spending below the upper cap limit this year.

You might be right. All I know is that players hate escrow and don't think they've changed their minds on that.

 

[hamzarocks]

We're going to be facing the likely 2nd best team in the league, and it would essentially be a sample size of one. It really says nothing about the methodology. Teams lose in the playoffs to better teams all the time. Teams lose in the playoffs to worse team all the time.

We need some sort of progression. How many 1st round series can we absorb before making a change to our roster composition.

Maybe we get lucky and the Bruins lose Krug, halak and macovoy and carlo take steps back aling with Bergeron and the rat starting their decline (all this is very unlikely to occur and I see the Bruins being an elite team for another 2-3 years and that is with them not finding a steal pick who can replace Bergeron) which kills their defense and makes them a fringe team again.

However Tampa will remain an elite team for as long as pur core is locked up. They won't be going anywhere and we can not keep coming 3rd in our division and say we played a good team and lost.

This team should not deal a core piece after this year but should retool the bottom 6 to add more gritty/physical wingers. Keep the top 6 skilled and hope the big 4 all play elite hockey at once moving forward. Have the bottom 6 be a shutdown/defensive unit that can chip in offense from time to time.

 

[Legion34]

Players needing new contracts would like a higher cap of course. That happens every year, but I'd have to wonder what the percentage of players needing new contracts is versus the total amount of players? Guessing its a minority, but I don't have firm numbers (hence I phrased this as a question).

When you say "many" players took lower salaries, do you know how many did? Our guys certainly didn't. Again, I'd guess that's a pretty small number percentage wise.

I do know that 18 teams are spending below the upper cap limit this year.

You might be right. All I know is that players hate escrow and don't think they've changed their minds on that.

our players didn’t take less going into the year because we gave them SB. Those get paid out in full regardless of a lockout.

the leafs have all the money in the world so they don’t care. Other frugal teams have absolutely planned that way. Lesser talents get squeezed and it adds up.


Feel free to look on cap friendly. Multiple players have taken minimal this coming year to minimize losses.

I’m not saying it will go up to 88. But I think that there are complications this year due to the projected huge jump in 2 years.

 

[Dekes For Days]

We need some sort of progression. How many 1st round series can we absorb before making a change?

Our core players are early 20s. We shouldn't be panicking. It feels worse than it actually is, because our players were so good off the bat that we made the playoffs before we probably should have.

Say the following scenario happened instead:

-In 2016-2017, we didn't have a record turnaround from last place. We still did much better than the previous year though, and made a considerable jump in points.
-In 2017-2018, we didn't have fluke vezina-quality backup goaltending and an insane shootout record, and we just missed the playoffs, while still gaining points on the previous year.
-In 2018-2019, we just make it into the playoffs, losing the series in 5.

Are any of those disappointing results? No. It's all very in-your-face progression. If that had happened, would we view a divisional spot and 7-game series loss to the 2nd best team in the league this year as a failure? Or would it just be the next step?

We have made progression. It's just hard to see it when you only look at the surface results, which don't really tell you the whole story. We made a huge jump in 2016-2017 with our franchise player rookies and good goaltending, and then again in 2017-2018 with a bunch of fairly random occurrences. It warps what we see as progression. Some people seem to have the mentality that the cup is owed to them or something. We're better than a lot of people think this year but we're not the best team in the league, and we're in the deadliest playoff division possible.

This is when patience is required; not during the rebuild.

Maybe we get lucky and the Bruins lose Krug, halal and macovoy and carlo take steps back which kills their defense and makes them a fringe team again.

Bergeron and Marchand will be 35 and 32 next year. Chara will be 43; and it's underrated how much the garbage he gets away with helps their team. Krejci will be 34. They have some nice pieces, so it's not like they're going to fall into oblivion, but their time at the top isn't going to last forever. They have quite the cap crunch as well, even with their massively lucky contracts.

However Tampa will remain an elite team for as long as pur core is locked up. They won't be going anywhere and we can not keep coming 3rd in our division and say we played a good team and lost.

Debatable. They also have a big cap crunch. Point's in for a big raise in a couple years. Stamkos is 30, and injuries are taking a bite out of him. Things can change fast.

Also, for both Tampa and Boston, their goalies are a big part of their success, and goalies are very unpredictable, as we've seen this year.

 

[seanlinden]

Players needing new contracts would like a higher cap of course. That happens every year, but I'd have to wonder what the percentage of players needing new contracts is versus the total amount of players? Guessing its a minority, but I don't have firm numbers (hence I phrased this as a question).

When you say "many" players took lower salaries, do you know how many did? Our guys certainly didn't. Again, I'd guess that's a pretty small number percentage wise.

I do know that 18 teams are spending below the upper cap limit this year.

You might be right. All I know is that players hate escrow and don't think they've changed their minds on that.

Even though all players hate escrow, typically we've seen players vote to keep some sort of reasonable cap increase, so as to avoid screwing over guys who are in their contract years. At the end of the day, they all know they could have been the unlucky ones in that position.

That being said, escrow continues to grow every single year. Players on LTIR (if I recall) are still counted towards the 50% player share. This year, every single team is above the designated midpoint (not a single team within $10m of the cap floor) and 13 teams are actually above the $81.5m cap. Toronto alone is $14m over the cap right now.

 

[Big Muddy]

our players didn’t take less going into the year because we gave them SB. Those get paid out in full regardless of a lockout.

the leafs have all the money in the world so they don’t care. Other frugal teams have absolutely planned that way. Lesser talents get squeezed and it adds up.


Feel free to look on cap friendly. Multiple players have taken minimal this coming year to minimize losses.

I’m not saying it will go up to 88. But I think that there are complications this year due to the projected huge jump in 2 years.

What percentage of players get new contracts on a given year? Boston, Montreal & Toronto as an example have 16 players under contract for next year? And, what percentage of those players have signing bonuses like our guys do? And then, what percentage of the players that got new contracts took a lower salary next year? My guess its a percentage of a percentage that doesn't add up to anything close to a majority or a big percentage. I'm guessing you don't want to invest much time researching the theory either.

 

[Big Muddy]

Even though all players hate escrow, typically we've seen players vote to keep some sort of reasonable cap increase, so as to avoid screwing over guys who are in their contract years. At the end of the day, they all know they could have been the unlucky ones in that position.

That being said, escrow continues to grow every single year. Players on LTIR (if I recall) are still counted towards the 50% player share. This year, every single team is above the designated midpoint (not a single team within $10m of the cap floor) and 13 teams are actually above the $81.5m cap. Toronto alone is $14m over the cap right now.

Teams that can will play with LTIR for sure. But, 18 teams are still below the upper cap limit (took a look at projected cap hit on CapFriendly earlier today). I'd say that's higher than the average year because you have some anomalies like Arizona who are spending big, but typically have not in years past.

Last year the players went for .5% increase. Maybe they will change their minds 12 months later? It's possible, but is it likely?

 

[Legion34]

What percentage of players get new contracts on a given year? Boston, Montreal & Toronto as an example have 16 players under contract for next year? And, what percentage of those players have signing bonuses like our guys do? And then, what percentage of the players that got new contracts took a lower salary next year? My guess its a percentage of a percentage that doesn't add up to anything close to a majority or a big percentage. I'm guessing you don't want to invest much time researching the theory either.

???? so you want to guess at something you don’t know????? But you want your uneducated guess to mean more than mine????

The escalator has been used multiple times in years. For your “percentage of a percentage” theory to be correct. The escalator would have increase as a function of the amount of free agents. It got used as a full 5% and sometimes .5%. You have no evidence that the determining factor was the number of free agents.

Mckenzie and LeBrun have continually mentioned how escrow will be lower this year. It will be the lowest in ages.

star RFAs took shorter deals to hedge against the giant cap explosion that is expected in 2 years.

There are 2 known facts. 1.) that escrow is lower this year due to lower payouts
2.) that dramatic cap increases are expected with the next deals.

There is no doubt that what I am saying is the truth. The only question is how much it will actually affect the cap this year.

 

[Legion34]

Teams that can will play with LTIR for sure. But, 18 teams are still below the upper cap limit (took a look at projected cap hit on CapFriendly earlier today). I'd say that's higher than the average year because you have some anomalies like Arizona who are spending big, but typically have not in years past.

Last year the players went for .5% increase. Maybe they will change their minds 12 months later? It's possible, but is it likely?

the lower cap percentage was to avoid a work stoppage. Players had hated escrow since it started. Why would last year be the year that they suddenly changed their minds?