Salary Cap: Projected 84-88.2 Million Next Year

[FraumBallard]

There will be a major overhaul to better use our cap dollars. This season proved that 40 million to 4 players as forwards just doesn't work.

My guess is Marner is dealt for a stud dman that is signed long term for around 6 million a season. Along with this dman we will get another winger with size, speed and youth to replace him on wing.

Other players like Kerfoot, Johnsson and Dermott will also be dealt in separate deals to build and fill voids on bottom 6 of forward lines and another dman.

I believe its in the Leafs best interest to that the cap goes up as much as possible. Build around the following: Matthews, Tavares, Nylander, Kapanen, Engvall, Mickheyev, Reilly, Muzzin, Sandin, Holl, Andersen and Campbell. Everyone else is fair game.

Bring back players like Spezza and Clifford for 4th line.

This means 4 new forwards and 2 new dmen.

But build and get it right this time.

Great post.
Agreed.
With Engvall and Kap being the exceptions.
Both poor hockey players with zero heart ( Kap once in a blue moon ).

 

[joepeps]

The player's should squeeze them now for the best CBA they can get. Noway they lockout after this LOL

They should take this time to do a new CBA now that everything is off.

And add it a luxury tax... That would fix the cap issue and revenue issue as high spending teams would be giving money to the small market teams.

 

[nuck]

An agent was speculating, cap could stay the same or slightly less next year if season cancelled. Said this years losses could be made up next year in escrow, as mentioned in article 50 (I think) of CBA.

I could believe that except it doesn't make any sense to cancel the season. Abbreviated maybe and running late but with all the TV revenue vs no revenue at all the owners would be foolish not to consider TV and empty arenas. Income vs nothing coming in with all that guaranteed salary? The clubs knocking on the door who have made investments specifically for this playoff don't have a mechanism for getting that back and aging stars like Ovy might not be able to match again what they can do this season. Blues own-rental Pietrangelo and have to defend the Cup next year playing against him? I think the weirdness factor of playing to minuscule or bubble boy crowds is why they pulled the plug short term but there is too much lost for too many stakeholders not to do something to salvage the season in some fashion.

Having said all of that it is guaranteed to be a weaker financial year than hoped and the escrow is probably the potential silver bullet. Any player looking for a new deal next season is not going to want a static or reduced cap and that includes the low numbers in the lineup. Can anyone thins why the players would not want to buy into this?

 

[Nineteen67]

they already announced its going up minimum to 84

No they didn’t. Those were only projections assuming there was going to be a full season and playoffs. That could all go out the window.

 

[thewave]

No they didn’t. Those were only projections assuming there was going to be a full season and playoffs. That could all go out the window.

It's out the window. It's long gone and those numbers are not coming back, this is a pretty darn close to a full blown collapse as you can get. Nothing will ever be the same after this, not for a long time at least if not forever.

 

[Kurtz]

Season cut short, no playoffs... that's what, about a third of league revenue gone? With current cap rules, that'd mean what, a ~$55 mil cap? Can't happen. I think a possible outcome is no cap at all next year. Spend what you can.

 

[Nineteen67]

Season cut short, no playoffs... that's what, about a third of league revenue gone? With current cap rules, that'd mean what, a ~$55 mil cap? Can't happen. I think a possible outcome is no cap at all next year. Spend what you can.

I think there is a provision that allows the NHL and NHLPA to negotiate the cap for one year.

 

[hotpaws]

Season cut short, no playoffs... that's what, about a third of league revenue gone? With current cap rules, that'd mean what, a ~$55 mil cap? Can't happen. I think a possible outcome is no cap at all next year. Spend what you can.

the most likely outcome is escrow shoots up

 

[JT AM da real deal]

the most likely outcome is escrow shoots up

Best not to go there yet because if escrow goes up players will strike. and we won't have hockey at all even next season. Best guess is next season will be a negotiated lower CAP number (maybe same as this season) and see where things come out.

 

[hotpaws]

Best not to go there yet because if escrow goes up players will strike. and we won't have hockey at all even next season. Best guess is next season will be a negotiated lower CAP number (maybe same as this season) and see where things come out.

the players bitch about escrow but they caused the problem by continuing to use there escalator clause which artificially raises the cap and there salaries which then gets clawed back

going to a lower cap will be a nightmare and i also the doubt the owners are going to want to foot the bill out of there share so the players don't share the pain of this stoppage

 

[JT AM da real deal]

the players bitch about escrow but they caused the problem by continuing to use there escalator clause which artificially raises the cap and there salaries which then gets clawed back

going to a lower cap will be a nightmare and i also the doubt the owners are going to want to foot the bill out of there share so the players don't share the pain of this stoppage

Yes the players made big mistakes using escalator all those years. But the environment has changed. Most players today are all about keeping their money from their contracts.
And the league has already told teams to make their last 3 payrolls to players. The players did not strike. They were told to not come to work so the owners have no choice here.
What will be interesting here is when the calcs get done in summer (or whenever they do it this year) and revenues are much much lower will owners ask players for more money back then they paid them and how will the NHLPA react if they do. My guess is the owners are taking it big time this season. Much like us season ticket holders who are likely getting a credit on next seasons fees. We had no say in this decision either.

 

[Mess]

Season cut short, no playoffs... that's what, about a third of league revenue gone? With current cap rules, that'd mean what, a ~$55 mil cap? Can't happen. I think a possible outcome is no cap at all next year. Spend what you can.

That can't happen under the current CBA.

What could happen if the cap drops significantly as a result, than pre-existing contracts already in place would allow teams to be over the cap ceiling, and then a small/equal amount for all teams would be allocated to sign new/expiring contracts to short term deals. IMO

It won't be spend what you can open ended, but rather cap compliance rules being altered to address such a situation on a temporary basis. It would be impossible to go from contracts already in place at $80 mil cap to $55 mil cap overnight.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

That can't happen under the current CBA.

What could happen if the cap drops significantly as a result, than pre-existing contracts already in place would allow teams to be over the cap ceiling, and then a small/equal amount for all teams would be allocated to sign new/expiring contracts to short term deals. IMO

It won't be spend what you can open ended, but rather cap compliance rules being altered to address such a situation on a temporary basis. It would be impossible to go from contracts already in place at $80 mil cap to $55 mil cap overnight.

It is really anyone's guess is to what will happen to the CBA and how it gets negotiated wrt CAP next year. I think that is a longer term issue.

The first and foremost issue will be what happens when owners ask for more money back from players then the 14% escrow taken this year? Of course they will withhold it from their incomes next season to make things whole. That is what anyone would expect. But the real issue is players saying, like regular folks, heh I did not ask for this lockout. Why should i be punished, with a limited career, to a decision taken by the league and its owners. Who knows how this all resolves itself? Hopefully it doesn't become a court decision. My guess is owners end up having to take da loss this year and why it was decided to continue to make next 3 payrolls.

 

[Mess]

It is really anyone's guess is to what will happen to the CBA and how it gets negotiated wrt CAP next year. I think that is a longer term issue.

The first and foremost issue will be what happens when owners ask for more money back from players then the 14% escrow taken this year? Of course they will withhold it from their incomes next season to make things whole. That is what anyone would expect. But the real issue is players saying, like regular folks, heh I did not ask for this lockout. Why should i be punished, with a limited career, to a decision taken by the league and its owners. Who knows how this all resolves itself? Hopefully it doesn't become a court decision. My guess is owners end up having to take da loss this year and why it was decided to continue to make next 3 payrolls.

The NHL CBA is based on a 50/50 profit share/split, so taking hits or sharing profit is a equal partnership.

In the CBA there is wording already to address a declining cap & recession situation, but not for something like this.

Escrow is really part of that balancing act where if player salaries > 50 % of HRR than owners are permitted to claw back excess $$ to become whole.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

The NHL CBA is based on a 50/50 profit share/spit, so taking hits or sharing profit is a equal partnership.

In the CBA there is wording already to address a declining cap & recession situation, but not for something like this.

Escrow is really part of that balancing act where if player salaries > 50 % of HRR than owners are permitted to claw back excess $$ to become whole.

Yes this issue I mentioned will get addressed behind the scenes or through the courts. The CBA does not address what happens when owners take decisions that are not agreed with the NHLPA which affect HRR. Again the league made a decision to keep paying contracts even though they decided to suspend the season.

 

[Mess]

Yes this issue I mentioned will get addressed behind the scenes or through the courts. The CBA does not address what happens when owners take decisions that are not agreed with the NHLPA which affect HRR. Again the league made a decision to keep paying contracts even though they decided to suspend the season.

The key issue here is the Owners didn't lock out the players/NHLPA for CBA financial reasons..

The league being suspended was for player safety and family health issues in the best interest of everyone. The losing revenue as a result of no games played isn't a player issue but isn't the fault of the owners either.

So it will be interesting how NHL and NHLPA decide how to work together to handle this, seeing as its likely this season and playoffs are likely done.

 

[Egghead1999]

Yes this issue I mentioned will get addressed behind the scenes or through the courts. The CBA does not address what happens when owners take decisions that are not agreed with the NHLPA which affect HRR. Again the league made a decision to keep paying contracts even though they decided to suspend the season.

Ya, players will not want to give back the money. The whole cap issue must solve behind the backdoor. We may see a one year cap system with lower cap floor

 

[ULF_55]

The key issue here is the Owners didn't lock out the players/NHLPA for CBA financial reasons..

The league being suspended was for player safety and family health issues in the best interest of everyone. The losing revenue as a result of no games played isn't a player issue but isn't the fault of the owners either.

So it will be interesting how NHL and NHLPA decide how to work together to handle this, seeing as its likely this season and playoffs are likely done.

I do enjoy chaos.

To be perfectly honest, we've watched Cups, and so we have that, but they could blow up the entire league and start over, and I'd just tune in and watch my Leafs struggle like they have for the past 5 decades.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Ya, players will not want to give back the money. The whole cap issue must solve behind the backdoor. We may see a one year cap system with lower cap floor

I am sure it will get resolved. But expecting da players to pay back more then escrow will cause a huge problem. But that issue must get resolved first.

 

[Mess]

Ya, players will not want to give back the money. The whole cap issue must solve behind the backdoor. We may see a one year cap system with lower cap floor

This seems fairly straightforward to me as to the solution.

The NHL and NHLPA are in a 50/50 equal partnership.. Therefore any profits or losses are shared equally.

If hypothetically the Salary Cap drops 20% due to this pandemic then $80 cap ceiling X -20% = -$16 mil or new cap is $64 mil for next year.

So for the following season you would apply the same -20% to each individual contract .. ie Tavares @$11 mil X
-20% = -$2.2 mil = $8.8 mil .. So for the temporary cap drop JT would get paid and for cap reasons and count as adjusted $8.8 mil instead of $11 mil.

Rinse repeat for all players.