Salary Cap: Projected 84-88.2 Million Next Year

[Big Muddy]

???? so you want to guess at something you don’t know????? But you want your uneducated guess to mean more than mine????

The escalator has been used multiple times in years. For your “percentage of a percentage” theory to be correct. The escalator would have increase as a function of the amount of free agents. It got used as a full 5% and sometimes .5%. You have no evidence that the determining factor was the number of free agents.

Mckenzie and LeBrun have continually mentioned how escrow will be lower this year. It will be the lowest in ages.

star RFAs took shorter deals to hedge against the giant cap explosion that is expected in 2 years.

There are 2 known facts. 1.) that escrow is lower this year due to lower payouts
2.) that dramatic cap increases are expected with the next deals.

There is no doubt that what I am saying is the truth. The only question is how much it will actually affect the cap this year.

I think you are not understanding what I said. I was just pointing out that there is a much larger percentage of players already under contract versus the players needing a new contract in any given year.

And, when the NHLPA puts the escalator percentage to a vote, the majority rules and perhaps the majority will vote the way they did last year. Based on data that I saw, escrow levels increased over several years after 2011. Maybe the players got increasingly frustrated over escrow & escrow increases and decided to take action.

The current contract between the NHL and the Comcast owned NBC and NBC SportsNet expires at the end of the 2021-22 season.

Any ways, going to move on to another topic versus beating this one to death & I hope it goes up to $88 m next year.

 

[seanlinden]

Teams that can will play with LTIR for sure. But, 18 teams are still below the upper cap limit (took a look at projected cap hit on CapFriendly earlier today). I'd say that's higher than the average year because you have some anomalies like Arizona who are spending big, but typically have not in years past.

Last year the players went for .5% increase. Maybe they will change their minds 12 months later? It's possible, but is it likely?

The whole premise of the salary cap is that there is a midpoint -- $60.2m floor, $81.5m cap, $70.1m midpoint. The midpoint is equal to 50% of projected HRR divided by 31.

In an ideal / theoretical world, if average teams expenditure ends up at the midpoint, and HRR ends up being exactly as projected, then players get back all of their escrow.

This year, EVERY team is above the midpoint. More than half of the league's teams are more than 15% above the midpoint (which is the cap). One of them (Toronto) is a full 36% above the midpoint.

Escrow I believe has grown every year, and the general sentiment is that the players are very frusturated with it.

 

[Big Muddy]

Escrow I believe has grown every year, and the general sentiment is that the players are very frusturated with it.

Good explanation of how it works although not new info.

Escrow has trended upwards after 2011 for several years, but it has bounced around since the CBA was introduced.

In 2011-12, the escrow withheld was 8.5%. In 2015-16 it was 17%. In 2016-17, it went down a little to 15.5%

Based on info that I've seen, I think there are 3 elements at play here though:

1. Escrow withheld
2. Escrow refunded
3. Net salary lost

#3 might be the one that bothers the players the most. In 2015-16, net salary lost was 12.95%.

I agree that the players don't like escrow. Because players are not receiving a full refund from the escrow amount, it seems like they are not making the full salary specified in their player contract. It is understandable that a player who is contracted for an amount but, because of escrow, is actually paid roughly 10 percent less, would view this as not getting what they were promised.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Let me know the discount that the C gets you after you've calculated it.

No idea. But St Louis has 7M open for Pietro. and he will get all of it for 8 years. This is a family decision not a $$$ one. maybe a bit more if St Louis can move others.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

You think it's only going to be 7M. He's going to give the Blues that big of a discount? I would guess the Blues have already offered at least 8

They only have 7M left unless they move others. Of course the CAP will have some impact here too but no one can know what will happen with corona, merch and playoff revenue yet. To project more than 84M is a huge stretch. It may be lower like what happened last year. 1.5M lower. Like I said before I would bet on 83M for next year.

 

[BlueForever75]

Who cares what Pietro is going to get, he wasn't a realistic option anyways. Was never coming here.

The Leafs need to focus on 2 dmen that are better then Barrie and Ceci. It wont be that hard to find that through trade or FA. If Muzzin and Reilly aren't hurt this year like previous years this D isn't half as bad as it has been. That is like taking Pesce and Hamilton out of the Carolina lineup, how would they do? Oh wait other then beating the Leafs with a Zamboni driver, they have pooped the bed since.

 

[ACC1224]

Who cares what Pietro is going to get, he wasn't a realistic option anyways. Was never coming here.

The Leafs need to focus on 2 dmen that are better then Barrie and Ceci. It wont be that hard to find that through trade or FA. If Muzzin and Reilly aren't hurt this year like previous years this D isn't half as bad as it has been. That is like taking Pesce and Hamilton out of the Carolina lineup, how would they do? Oh wait other then beating the Leafs with a Zamboni driver, they have pooped the bed since.

While it's unlikely, until he is signed it is very much a realistic option.

 

[sxvnert]

Hyman Matthews Marner
Mik Tavares Nylander
Engvall -------- --------
Spezza -------- --------
Clifford

Muzzin --------
Dermott --------
Sandin Liljegren

--------
Campbell

Trade the rest.

 

[Sniper99]

88m means Pietrangelo is a leaf.

FYI, childhood friend of Tavares.

Cool. How many games in till posters start ******** about AP?

 

[Stephen]

Well, with the markets being what they are, I wonder if we might see those cap projections scaled back.

 

[IPS]

Cool. How many games in till posters start ******** about AP?

From the second he signs?

 

[Sniper99]

From the second he signs?

a good chance of that, also a good chance of 20 threads whining about contracts.

 

[ULF_55]

Well, with the markets being what they are, I wonder if we might see those cap projections scaled back.

San Jose Sharks to adhere to Santa Clara County ban, review home dates - TSN.ca

Is this just the beginning?

Could be huge loss of HRR if this is implemented in multiple locations.

 

[BlueForever75]

Hyman Matthews Marner
Mik Tavares Nylander
Engvall -------- --------
Spezza -------- --------
Clifford

Muzzin --------
Dermott --------
Sandin Liljegren

--------
Campbell

Trade the rest.

I would trade Marner before Reilly. And still keep Kapanen. And trading Andersen is plain stuipid. Everything else is about right.

 

[ACC1224]

Heaven help them if the playoffs are affected by Corona.
Is it possible the cap could go down?

 

[TheTotalPackage]

Heaven help them if the playoffs are affected by Corona.
Is it possible the cap could go down?

Yeah, I was wondering that last night when the news broke about the Sharks playing in front of an empty arena. Was it premature for the league to suggest what next year's cap range will be? If games start being played all over with no fans, that would surely affect HRR, no?

 

[ACC1224]

Yeah, I was wondering that last night when the news broke about the Sharks playing in front of an empty arena. Was it premature for the league to suggest what next year's cap range will be? If games start being played all over with no fans, that would surely affect HRR, no?

I thought the same and really have no idea if the cap can go down.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I thought the same and really have no idea if the cap can go down.

It happened last year. The numbers in southern markets and across Canada took a dump last 4-6 weeks of season and playoffs. And the CAP dropped by 1.5M per team. It was a big surprise in Canada but da Raps kinda took over hockey. In southern markets da spring arrives with better weather and people go back college hoops and NASCAR.
It definitely could happen again and even worse with this d*mn virus.

 

[ACC1224]

It happened last year. The numbers in southern markets and across Canada took a dump last 4-6 weeks of season and playoffs. And the CAP dropped by 1.5M per team. It was a big surprise in Canada but da Raps kinda took over hockey. In southern markets da spring arrives with better weather and people go back college hoops and NASCAR.
It definitely could happen again and even worse with this d*mn virus.

Is this chart wrong? It shows the cap rising every year.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Is this chart wrong? It shows the cap rising every year.

No it is right but I was talking Gary advice mid year was a 83M CAP for 19/20. And I am sure it was probably tracking for 83M as Gary would not have said that. But things went downhill in certain markets close to end of season. All I'm saying is it could happen again.

 

[ACC1224]

No it is right but I was talking Gary advice mid year was a 83M CAP for 19/20. And I am sure it was probably tracking for 83M as Gary would not have said that. But things went downhill in certain markets close to end of season. All I'm saying is it could happen again.

Got it, you meant down from what's projected.
I'm wondering if it could go down from this year to next? Is there something in the CBA that prevents that?

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Got it, you meant down from what's projected.
I'm wondering if it could go down from this year to next? Is there something in the CBA that prevents that?

No idea ... but I would think it was based on actual numbers into their formula

 

[BlueForever75]

If anything the cap will only go up but not as high as some expected if this epidemic starts to impact gate sales down the stretch.

That being said, any good business model always doesn't include something like this in their bottom line for the year. This is where forecasting will come into play.

So I see the cap going up but maybe not as high as first reported.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

If anything the cap will only go up but not as high as some expected if this epidemic starts to impact gate sales down the stretch.

That being said, any good business model always doesn't include something like this in their bottom line for the year. This is where forecasting will come into play.

So I see the cap going up but maybe not as high as first reported.

Gary is one smart NYC lawyer and there was a reason he let Daly say the numbers this year ... let's hope for our Leafs we see da 84M and there is no erosion down da stretch

 

[Resistance]

Wonder what happens if fans are kaput from buildings 2 weeks from now, how much it dents HRR.

Assume the NHL would step in if the math worked out to a $10M drop in the cap.