Predict the Atlantic Standings

[The Hanging Jowl]

might have been overstated? His line was getting matched up against opponents top line the entire playoffs and shutting them down. Good luck repeating that without him.

I think it's a little overstated. The Leafs top line dominated the Danault line in all of the usual metrics, they just couldn't solve Price. He's a good shut down guy, I just think he's getting a little too much credit for something Price was mostly responsible for.

 

[The90]

-Still have Buffalo as the bottom team in the division.

-Detroit and Ottawa could battle for a WC spot, but they dont finish ahead of Toronto, Tampa, and Florida. Most likely Boston, but they’ve only played a game so far, so I’d obviously have to see more.

-Toronto hasn’t scored a lot because:

• Matthews came back on Monday, in a game where they should have scored more, but Shesterkin was ridiculous.
  
• I don’t like their depth after their top four forwards. If you shut them down, you shut the Leafs down.
  
• Don’t understand also why they cater so much to Marner.

-Don’t think Montreal is as bad as they are playing, but I barely expected them to challenge for a WC spot to begin with. Let’s see when Hoffman gets back, if he can give their PP a scoring boost.

-Tampa is Tampa. They make it unless they lose another key piece. They are vulnerable though. Think their D is questionable at times, and their depth up front as well.

-Florida is exactly where they should be, at or near the top of the division. They are a little sloppy with penalties, and need to get the PP going. But even without a PP goal yet, they’ve scored 14 goals in 3 games, with 7 different goal scorers. They are deep, and I expect them to challenge for the Presidents Trophy this season.

I don’t understand this Toronto take. You constantly harp this no depth take, And yet without any contribution from Matthews and Marner, the leafs are 2-1-1. Their depth got them to that record. A bit of bad puck luck so far has Tavares and Marner off the scoresheet.

I agree with most of the rest of the things you said, but it feels almost as though you’re writing what you want to be true about the leafs than reality. They’re much better than they’re given credit for depth wise and defensively (I know you never mentioned d, but it’s usually where the conversation pivots).

 

[Peasy]

People coming back to reality with Montreal yet?

 

[Beezeral]

I think it's a little overstated. The Leafs top line dominated the Danault line in all of the usual metrics, they just couldn't solve Price. He's a good shut down guy, I just think he's getting a little too much credit for something Price was mostly responsible for.

Overstated, yet through 3 games, the Habs have been getting caved in at 5 on 5. Weird

 

[holy]

People coming back to reality with Montreal yet?

No. Habs are just setting up the greatest comeback in sports history.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Overstated, yet through 3 games, the Habs have been getting caved in at 5 on 5. Weird

You've nailed it. Because losing Danault was the only change to the lineup this season.

 

[The90]

Overstated, yet through 3 games, the Habs have been getting caved in at 5 on 5. Weird

… without price as well. Caves your argument because you can’t say 1 way or another who did it.

In my opinion an elite goalie on a hot streak has much more of an impact than a shut down centre. Price was godlike the end of that series. I’d also take Danault on my team every day of the week. But Price was the reason they made it to the finals.

 

[The90]

No. Habs are just setting up the greatest comeback in sports history.

You think the 3-1 comeback was sweet? Wait till you see the 0-30 comeback baby. The Habs are just saving energy lol

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

I don’t understand this Toronto take. You constantly harp this no depth take, And yet without any contribution from Matthews and Marner, the leafs are 2-1-1. Their depth got them to that record. A bit of bad puck luck so far has Tavares and Marner off the scoresheet.

I agree with most of the rest of the things you said, but it feels almost as though you’re writing what you want to be true about the leafs than reality. They’re much better than they’re given credit for depth wise and defensively (I know you never mentioned d, but it’s usually where the conversation pivots).

What do you feel are TOR's weaknesses then?

 

[The90]

What do you feel are TOR's weaknesses then?

The reason they lost the last 2 years was because their top end guys didn’t produce when it mattered. Their depth got them to game 5 and game 7.

They deserved to win both the cbj series and against montreal and for whatever reason never got it done. They have a penchant for having goalies stonewall them. Look at shesterkin last game or forsberg in the ottawa game they lost, but had 48 shots. I don’t know the solution, but depth isn’t the problem. Wouldn’t hurt if they had more killer instinct. Good teams find a way to get it done, the leafs haven’t done that. I’m not sure reshuffling the chairs on the deck is the solution if your top guys aren’t producing.

 

[pb1300]

I don’t understand this Toronto take. You constantly harp this no depth take, And yet without any contribution from Matthews and Marner, the leafs are 2-1-1. Their depth got them to that record. A bit of bad puck luck so far has Tavares and Marner off the scoresheet.

I agree with most of the rest of the things you said, but it feels almost as though you’re writing what you want to be true about the leafs than reality. They’re much better than they’re given credit for depth wise and defensively (I know you never mentioned d, but it’s usually where the conversation pivots).

Because I don’t like your depth. I think the moves that were made do not turn the needle either way, and that’s not counting the loss of Hyman (which is fine because I wouldn’t like his deal on my team). And I think part of the reason why they might have lost focus against the Habs, aside from the pressure, is because of the strain the team puts on its top players in the regular season. And I’m not sold on your goalie tandem. I could be completely wrong, but it’s my opinion. Marner and Matthews are a problem for me, everyone else doesn’t scare me.

 

[SheldonJPlankton]

Lot of season left...

The Habs were down 3-1 to start last season's playoffs and then went on to win 11 of the next 13 games. A couple of mini-win streaks would put the Habs back on playoff pace.

 

[Aashir]

Florida will become a powerhouse if their lines continue to click. They have 3 scoringlines:

Verhaeghe - Barkov - Duclair
Huberdeau - Bennett - Tippett
Vatrano - Lundell - Reinhart

Floridas 3rd line is better than many teams second...

Is reinhart on the 3rd line not a waste of his talent? He’s easily a top 6 player and probably a first liner. I get that it insulates depth and lundell gets a real nice player to play with, but still duclair could do that instead.

 

[pb1300]

Is reinhart on the 3rd line not a waste of his talent? He’s easily a top 6 player and probably a first liner. I get that it insulates depth and lundell gets a real nice player to play with, but still duclair could do that instead.

As a winger, he received the 2nd most ice time last night, only behind Huberdeau. Overall, he was top six in TOI, with one of the other six being his center, Lundell. He is going to get his minutes, it just seemed that the chemistry was better with Lundell, even though chances were created when he played with Barkov and Verhaeghe.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

The reason they lost the last 2 years was because their top end guys didn’t produce when it mattered. Their depth got them to game 5 and game 7.

They deserved to win both the cbj series and against montreal and for whatever reason never got it done. They have a penchant for having goalies stonewall them. Look at shesterkin last game or forsberg in the ottawa game they lost, but had 48 shots. I don’t know the solution, but depth isn’t the problem. Wouldn’t hurt if they had more killer instinct. Good teams find a way to get it done, the leafs haven’t done that. I’m not sure reshuffling the chairs on the deck is the solution if your top guys aren’t producing.

I agree with this. Their PP in playoffs was operating at 13.9% the past 2 years as well. And that supports your assertion the big guys didn't step up

Is reinhart on the 3rd line not a waste of his talent? He’s easily a top 6 player and probably a first liner. I get that it insulates depth and lundell gets a real nice player to play with, but still duclair could do that instead.

Reinhart played 13:19 of even strength TOI last night on 3rd line, obviously got some PP time as well. Had 2 assists

Duclair got 12:09 of ES TOI on 1st line and got a goal.
Verhaeghe got 15:38 of ES TOI on 1st line and got an assist.

Q spreads the minutes and gives guys extra time/line promotions to those who earn it in a 2-3 game sample.

Lundell and Reinhart seemed to find some instant chemistry so why not roll 4 deep lines and not have to redline any line/player unless absolutely needed?

 

[Aashir]

Reinhart played 13:19 of even strength TOI last night on 3rd line, obviously got some PP time as well. Had 2 assists

Duclair got 12:09 on 1st line and got a goal.
Verhaeghe got 15:38 on 1st line and got an assist.

Q spreads the minutes and gives guys extra time/line promotions to those who earn it in a 2-3 game sample.

Lundell and Reinhart seemed to find some instant chemistry so why not roll 4 deep lines and not have to redline any line/player unless absolutely needed?

Fair enough, having a deep lineup is very important and he does offer scoring off that 3rd line. And from the comments I’ve gotten, looks like his EV TOI is higher than I expected in that role.

 

[Beezeral]

… without price as well. Caves your argument because you can’t say 1 way or another who did it.

In my opinion an elite goalie on a hot streak has much more of an impact than a shut down centre. Price was godlike the end of that series. I’d also take Danault on my team every day of the week. But Price was the reason they made it to the finals.

price has zero impact on xGA numbers. The Habs made their money last year being a shut down team at 5 on 5 where they gave up very few premium chances. Through 3 games this year, they have been TERRIBLE at 5 on 5. The defensive impact is gone.

 

[WF19]

Homer Wings fan here but wow are the Wings a different team to watch this year. Griess has played unbelievable, Leddy and Seider is a huge upgrade. Bertuzzi is healthy and off to another great start. Raymond looks like an elite passer and can shoot all while looking like he will be in the running for a selke some day.

Their powerplay has made huge strikes with the addition of Tanguay for one. Leddy, Seider and Raymond all look good on the PP.

Maybe they will still be bottom feeders but so far their young guns are living up to the hype so at least there is some entertainment to watch.

Next year though? They should take a massive step. With all the cap space available and maybe we will see Edvisson who is already looking like another steal and Yzerman also isn't afraid to pull the trigger on trades.

 

[The Podium]

What do you feel are TOR's weaknesses then?

Mentally weak, lack of motivation, stars not producing when they need too and injury prone goalies

The roster, as constructed, doesn’t really have any weaknesses if everyone plays as they should.

 

[swiftwin]

Habs finished 18th and 24th the last two seasons. If it wasn't for covid, they probably don't make the playoffs either of those seasons. The playoff run was on the back of a hot goalie and key veterans stepping up.

Now, they lost their #1C, their captain, and their franchise goalie, as well as those key vets. Of course they were going to suck this year. Anyone with half a brain knew this was coming.

 

[Fogelhund]

The reason they lost the last 2 years was because their top end guys didn’t produce when it mattered. Their depth got them to game 5 and game 7.

They deserved to win both the cbj series and against montreal and for whatever reason never got it done. They have a penchant for having goalies stonewall them. Look at shesterkin last game or forsberg in the ottawa game they lost, but had 48 shots. I don’t know the solution, but depth isn’t the problem. Wouldn’t hurt if they had more killer instinct. Good teams find a way to get it done, the leafs haven’t done that. I’m not sure reshuffling the chairs on the deck is the solution if your top guys aren’t producing.

This is correct as a Leafs fan. Your top players have to be your top players when it counts most. Matthews, who is an above average shooter (16.1% career), went 2.9% in the playoffs, and hit 5-6 posts. Wrist injury that needed off season surgery may have been a factor. Between Matthews wrist injury, and Tavares being out.. that's pretty much the story. Marner wasn't very good on his own either... If the Leafs want to succeed, they need these four guys to be healthy, and productive in the playoffs. Note.. they aren't really scoring right now either... except Nylander, who also performed well in the playoffs.

 

[The90]

This is correct as a Leafs fan. Your top players have to be your top players when it counts most. Matthews, who is an above average shooter (16.1% career), went 2.9% in the playoffs, and hit 5-6 posts. Wrist injury that needed off season surgery may have been a factor. Between Matthews wrist injury, and Tavares being out.. that's pretty much the story. Marner wasn't very good on his own either... If the Leafs want to succeed, they need these four guys to be healthy, and productive in the playoffs. Note.. they aren't really scoring right now either... except Nylander, who also performed well in the playoffs.

I fully anticipated the second part of this to say the big boys all played terrible props for realizing they weren’t, just never produced. They have honestly played pretty well in the playoffs the last 2 years production aside. It’s bizarre to watch. The rangers game the other day was like watching games 5 and 6 against montreal. Pepper the goalie with high quality shots, dominate possession and most of the play, end up losing. Rinse/ repeat. Not sure what the solution is.

 

[Fogelhund]

I fully anticipated the second part of this to say the big boys all played terrible props for realizing they weren’t, just never produced. They have honestly played pretty well in the playoffs the last 2 years production aside. It’s bizarre to watch. The rangers game the other day was like watching games 5 and 6 against montreal. Pepper the goalie with high quality shots, dominate possession and most of the play, end up losing. Rinse/ repeat. Not sure what the solution is.

We've made goalies look great in the playoffs for a few years now. At some point, a consistent inability to score when it counts most, resides with the player.. they take accountability of that. They've played well overall, but these players are paid to put up points at the right time, and so far haven't... they are young, and sometimes players take time to mature... like Yzerman, Sakic, Ovechkin... As a Leafs fan, I hope that's all it is. Part of the recent problem is the PP... it just isn't working, and with the quality of offensive players, should be near the tops in the league... solve that, and I think the rest falls into place.

 

[Notsince67]

People coming back to reality with Montreal yet?

 

[Dread Clawz]

Fair enough, having a deep lineup is very important and he does offer scoring off that 3rd line. And from the comments I’ve gotten, looks like his EV TOI is higher than I expected in that role.

Yeah, Q is known for having little patience when lines aren't clicking, or more specifically, one player on a line isn't clicking. Reino with Barkov and Verhaeghe hasn't worked yet, but that doesn't mean it won't. However Reino and Lundell have found some nice chemistry so expect to see them paired together for the next several games. Marchment opens up ice for any line he' s on.