Predict the Atlantic Standings

[The90]

Fair enough but he had to do that because of the ridiculous referring which was acknowledge by most from neutral fanbases.

At 5v5 it was a very balanced series. Habs were the only team to be 50/50 in xGF at 5v5 against Vegas in the playoffs…since 2018

If you have an ounce of objectivity you know it was a very balanced series when the referees weren’t putting on a show. For some reason you are reticent to give the Habs any credit.

Edit: Also lol, what is the average SV% from goalies in the NHL if you remove losses lol like probably above .930? Price was the best players but he didn’t win by himself. Habs trashed Winnipeg and played a 50/50 series against Vegas, Price was better then Fleury/Lehner, tipping the scale in Montreal’s favour.

But he did it in 3 straight series. That’s the point. He did HAVE to do it. Refereeing or not. It’s not mystery why they aren’t being respected the way you want them to be. Even half of your own fan base agrees to that.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Huh...they were one Flower flub from going home. Lol. Too much hubris for failure.

Huh, Montreal won 2 more games. Lol

 

[Essenege]

But he did it in 3 straight series. That’s the point. He did HAVE to do it. Refereeing or not. It’s not mystery why they aren’t being respected the way you want them to be. Even half of your own fan base agrees to that.

Last 3 post seasons, vs Vegas.

I don’t care about the respect they get. I bet a good amount they would win the series against Vegas at 4-1 (posted about it back then) which were outrageously ridiculous odds based on the way they played in the 7 games prior. I welcome the disrespect with open arms

 

[SheldonJPlankton]

So explain how montreal dispatched vegas so easily? walk in the parc honnestly, pretty embarassing for the league

The gift was for Toronto....to set them up with a Cinderella divisional win and put them on a path to coast beyond the first round.

However, the Leafs are the still the Leafs, even if the Fairy Bettman dressed them in a fancy gown...and the Habs spoiled all the plans by finding their true character and spirit of a contender, while the Leafs withered away.

 

[Essenege]

But he did it in 3 straight series. That’s the point. He did HAVE to do it. Refereeing or not. It’s not mystery why they aren’t being respected the way you want them to be. Even half of your own fan base agrees to that.

By the way I know you think I’m a homer based on our previous interaction. It’s fair that you have this assumption, but you should know that I bet in Habs “future markets” every year and I’ve bet against them in multiple instances in prior seasons. I just happen to have a good opinion on the current edition, that’s all.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

By the way I know you think I’m a homer based on our previous interaction. It’s fair that you have this assumption, but you should know that I bet in Habs “future markets” every year and I’ve bet against them in multiple instances in prior seasons. I just happen to have a good opinion on the current edition, that’s all.

How would you say the team stacks up defensively compared to last years playoff version of the Habs? And how do they stack up to the rest of the division?

 

[pb1300]

While I absolutely love Panthers’ core and the fact that their best players are in their prime, I still think they need to prove it again this year.

- A few players had an unusually productive year by their standards (Duclair, Weegar, Wennberg).

- Based on goal saved above expected, Driedger saved .4 goal per game more then Bobrovsky and Knight. They will both need to be better

I think they are a playoff team but I wouldn’t be surprised if they battle it out with Boston and Montreal down the stretch (maybe Ottawa although I don’t really see it).

I feel only Tampa and to a lesser extent Toronto are clearly playoff bound.

I don’t see how Florida battles for a spot, yet Toronto “clearly” gets in. Florida is the better all around team, better coach, better managed. Toronto hardly got better in the off-season, while Florida did. I feel there are far more question marks with the Leafs, than the Panthers.

The Panthers have one question mark, and that’s in goal. But their tandem has the better probability to be the best out of the two groups, with Knight being a possible game changer, eventually.

And how come players can’t improve? Weegar has been improving since being drafted, and took on the #1 D role once Ekblad went down.

I don’t get the Duclair mention because he has produced in the past, and wasn’t even on trajectory for his best goal scoring season. Plus, it’s pretty easy to get points when you play with Barkov.

Wennberg is not even on the team anymore.

I see the division as a sunshine state duo, followed by Toronto, and one of Boston or Montreal.

Boston lost Krejci, and Haula won’t cut it as a replacement. They’re bottom six is better than the Leafs, but their depth at center is concerning.

 

[Essenege]

How would you say the team stacks up defensively compared to last years playoff version of the Habs? And how do they stack up to the rest of the division?

With Caufield playing the full season, Hoffman for the PP and Dvorak over Danault, I think they improved offensively.

Defensively, I’m worried about losing Danault, a lot more so then Weber. How they do defensively without Danault’s line is a massive question mark for me.

I’m also not sold entirely on Boston and Florida who have some holes themselves.

I think they are a top 12-14 team in the league but this might not even be good enough in the Atlantic. I’d be neutral betting wise between 95-100 points, although this season I need to see more of how we do with Dvorak before I’m comfortable betting either way.

 

[Beezeral]

With Caufield playing the full season, Hoffman for the PP and Dvorak over Danault, I think they improved offensively.

Defensively, I’m worried about losing Danault, a lot more so then Weber. How they do defensively without Danault’s line is a massive question mark for me.

I’m also not sold entirely on Boston and Florida who have some holes themselves.

I think they are a top 12-14 team in the league but this might not even be good enough in the Atlantic. I’d be neutral betting wise between 95-100 points, although this season I need to see more of how we do with Dvorak before I’m comfortable betting either way.

The Habs saving grace in the playoffs was the great shot suppression from the Danault line. He's now gone and was replaced by players who range from black holes defensively (Hoffman) to "ok" defensively in Dvorak. The Habs 5 on 5 play took a HUGE hit this offseason.

The Habs are going to need massive offensive outputs from Hoffman, Caufield, and Dvorak to make up for the loss of their 5 on 5 defense. The power play may have improved, but the Habs got a lot worse in other areas.

ON PAPER, the Habs are the 5th best team in the division with a bit of a gap between them and the 4th place team. Could they jump a team and make the playoffs? Sure. But a lot is going to need to bounce their way for it to happen. That is not a 95-100 point roster on paper.

 

[Essenege]

The Habs saving grace in the playoffs was the great shot suppression from the Danault line. He's now gone and was replaced by players who range from black holes defensively (Hoffman) to "ok" defensively in Dvorak. The Habs 5 on 5 play took a HUGE hit this offseason.

The Habs are going to need massive offensive outputs from Hoffman, Caufield, and Dvorak to make up for the loss of their 5 on 5 defense. The power play may have improved, but the Habs got a lot worse in other areas.

ON PAPER, the Habs are the 5th best team in the division with a bit of a gap between them and the 4th place team. Could they jump a team and make the playoffs? Sure. But a lot is going to need to bounce their way for it to happen. That is not a 95-100 point roster on paper.

The role Danault had might have been overstated. Gallagher and Lekhonen are some very defensively responsible players themselves. Habs forward group is still mostly made up of 200 foot forwards like Toffoli, Armia, Lekhonen, Gallagher, etc.

Go take a look at Gallagher’s number before he played with Danault. His line his always possession dominant no matter the quality of competition. Although he did play his best seasons in that regard with Phil.

Time will tell.

 

[bobholly39]

In the 4 games montreal won in that series, Carey Price had save percentages of: .949, .963, .956 and .935 for an average of .951. That’s god level goaltending. Also is the reason fans of other teams aren’t taking you seriously.

You guys did very well. But in the games you won in the playoffs (outside of just the vegas series) Carey Price had a save percentage of .945. That’s absolute domination by a HOF goaltender who got hot at the right time.

Carey Price stole the Toronto series. Leafs probably should have won that series 6-0 after 6 games. Habs as a team played a bit better in games 5 and 6, but still advantage Toronto. It's only in game 7 Leafs played real bad and Habs better.

So yes - Price stole the series, and honestly his save% doesn't even do him justice, because it's the quality of saves. Leafs had so many insane opportunities, especially Marner. I don't agree with all the backlash Marner got because I thought he generated a ton of opportunities first 5 games, he just kept being robbed.

That being said - I don't think it's fair to dismiss the Hab's run as "god level goaltending, not repeatable". Habs did a lot of great things in the playoffs outside of the Leafs series:

- Broke the all-time playoff record for most straight games without giving a PP goal against. Price helped there - but overall great team play
- I think ended up 2nd all-time in playoff history for most consecutive minutes of games without trailing in a game. I think it was 7+ games.
- Played terrific rounds against Winnipeg, and Vegas. Probably should have won Vegas series in 5. Full team effort

Habs overall scoring depth showed also, with goals and offense coming from many different sources.

Finally - regarding Price. Price had a very poor regular season last year. And in the regular season, Habs did ~ok, but nothing great. I think it's extremely reasonable to expect him to do a lot better this year. If Price has a strong season (doesn't even have to be Vezina level, just a strong year) - I think Habs can do a lot better in the regular season.

I'll stick to my predictions on page 1:

Leafs
Habs
Tampa
Boston (playoffs)
Florida (no playoffs)
Ottawa
Detroit
Buffalo

 

[BoltSTH]

Class of the division:
Bolts
Kittens

Fighting for 3rd/4th place. Just listed alphabetically.
Bruins
Habs
Leafs

Could be anywhere from 4th to 7th, by guess 6th
Sens

Lottery Shot
Red Wings
Sabres

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

While I absolutely love Panthers’ core and the fact that their best players are in their prime, I still think they need to prove it again this year.

- A few players had an unusually productive year by their standards (Duclair, Weegar, Wennberg).

- Based on goal saved above expected, Driedger saved .4 goal per game more then Bobrovsky and Knight. They will both need to be better

I think they are a playoff team but I wouldn’t be surprised if they battle it out with Boston and Montreal down the stretch (maybe Ottawa although I don’t really see it).

I feel only Tampa and to a lesser extent Toronto are clearly playoff bound.

I think Florida will be good again. Losing Driedger hurts but they also added Bennett and Reinhart, which will give them offensive depth they really haven't had before.

I agree on Weegar probably coming back to Earth, but not necessarily on Duclair and Wennberg.

Duclair had a good season but he had 31g and 54 points in 87 games playing for Ottawa in the prior two years - a ~60 point pace doesn't seem unreasonable, especially if they put him back with Huberdeau and Bennett.

29p in 59gp for Wennberg is pretty much his career average pace. He might fall off a tad considering he's likely to get dropped from any top 6 duty, but probably not too badly.

If anyone is likely to regress a bit it's probably Verhaeghe, especially if he loses his spot next to barkov.

 

[b in vancouver]

Lighting
Panthers
Habs
Sens
Leafs
Bruins
Wings
Sabers

People have been predicting The Bruins to fall off for years and it just never happens. Losing Krejci hurts them, Rask is a question mark (although Ullmark/Swayman should be solid) and the defensive depth is thin but they'll still finish 1-3. Way too much high-end talent, forward depth, strength at RHD and goal for them to fall off this season. They're also incredibly structured.

 

[Beezeral]

The role Danault had might have been overstated. Gallagher and Lekhonen are some very defensively responsible players themselves. Habs forward group is still mostly made up of 200 foot forwards like Toffoli, Armia, Lekhonen, Gallagher, etc.

might have been overstated? His line was getting matched up against opponents top line the entire playoffs and shutting them down. Good luck repeating that without him.

 

[Beezeral]

I agree on Weegar probably coming back to Earth, but not necessarily on Duclair and Wennberg.

Weegar has been putting up excellent analytics for years. He's not regressing any time soon.

29p in 59gp for Wennberg is pretty much his career average pace. He might fall off a tad considering he's likely to get dropped from any top 6 duty, but probably not too badly.

Not even on the team anymore.

If anyone is likely to regress a bit it's probably Verhaeghe, especially if he loses his spot next to barkov.

Guy had advanced numbers that were up there with some of the best players in the NHL. He may regress a bit, but Carter Verhaeghe is a legit top 6 player. He's not leaving Barkov's wing, but his numbers didn't decline when Barkov was hurt last season. Guy is legit.

 

[BatVader]

Florida
Tampa
Boston
Montreal
-
Toronto
Ottawa
Detroit
Buffalo

 

[GrandBison]

might have been overstated? His line was getting matched up against opponents top line the entire playoffs and shutting them down. Good luck repeating that without him.

That's a team strategy, before Danault, it was Plekanec. It's not all on individual players. It's easy for a team like Montreal to play a defensive line big minutes, as they don't have real top-end offensive talent that you want on the ice for around 20 min a game. I believe that Evans or Dvorak could do the job just fine with Lehkonen and Gallagher as wingers.

 

[Beezeral]

That's a team strategy, before Danault, it was Plekanec. It's not all on individual players. It's easy for a team like Montreal to play a defensive line big minutes, as they don't have real top-end offensive talent that you want on the ice for around 20 min a game. I believe that Evans or Dvorak could do the job just fine with Lehkonen and Gallagher as wingers.

We shall see. Good luck with that though.

 

[JianYang]

The Habs saving grace in the playoffs was the great shot suppression from the Danault line. He's now gone and was replaced by players who range from black holes defensively (Hoffman) to "ok" defensively in Dvorak. The Habs 5 on 5 play took a HUGE hit this offseason.

The Habs are going to need massive offensive outputs from Hoffman, Caufield, and Dvorak to make up for the loss of their 5 on 5 defense. The power play may have improved, but the Habs got a lot worse in other areas.

ON PAPER, the Habs are the 5th best team in the division with a bit of a gap between them and the 4th place team. Could they jump a team and make the playoffs? Sure. But a lot is going to need to bounce their way for it to happen. That is not a 95-100 point roster on paper.

I think this is fair for the most part. They definitely need the powerplay to improve, and it's got alot more potential especially if they line up hoffman and caufield on the perimeter with one time threats on both sides. They haven't had that kind of look for many years.

5th is what I saw for this club a few weeks ago, and 5th is where I see them today, except the gap might have closed between them and 4th to a degree since my projected 4th place team (boston) lost krejci.

 

[T REX]

Carey Price stole the Toronto series. Leafs probably should have won that series 6-0 after 6 games. Habs as a team played a bit better in games 5 and 6, but still advantage Toronto. It's only in game 7 Leafs played real bad and Habs better.

So yes - Price stole the series, and honestly his save% doesn't even do him justice, because it's the quality of saves. Leafs had so many insane opportunities, especially Marner. I don't agree with all the backlash Marner got because I thought he generated a ton of opportunities first 5 games, he just kept being robbed.

That being said - I don't think it's fair to dismiss the Hab's run as "god level goaltending, not repeatable". Habs did a lot of great things in the playoffs outside of the Leafs series:

- Broke the all-time playoff record for most straight games without giving a PP goal against. Price helped there - but overall great team play
- I think ended up 2nd all-time in playoff history for most consecutive minutes of games without trailing in a game. I think it was 7+ games.
- Played terrific rounds against Winnipeg, and Vegas. Probably should have won Vegas series in 5. Full team effort

Habs overall scoring depth showed also, with goals and offense coming from many different sources.

Finally - regarding Price. Price had a very poor regular season last year. And in the regular season, Habs did ~ok, but nothing great. I think it's extremely reasonable to expect him to do a lot better this year. If Price has a strong season (doesn't even have to be Vezina level, just a strong year) - I think Habs can do a lot better in the regular season.

I'll stick to my predictions on page 1:

Leafs
Habs
Tampa
Boston (playoffs)
Florida (no playoffs)
Ottawa
Detroit
Buffalo

Tampa curbstomped the Habs. How do you figure they finish ahead of them?

 

[pb1300]

I think Florida will be good again. Losing Driedger hurts but they also added Bennett and Reinhart, which will give them offensive depth they really haven't had before.

I agree on Weegar probably coming back to Earth, but not necessarily on Duclair and Wennberg.

Duclair had a good season but he had 31g and 54 points in 87 games playing for Ottawa in the prior two years - a ~60 point pace doesn't seem unreasonable, especially if they put him back with Huberdeau and Bennett.

29p in 59gp for Wennberg is pretty much his career average pace. He might fall off a tad considering he's likely to get dropped from any top 6 duty, but probably not too badly.

If anyone is likely to regress a bit it's probably Verhaeghe, especially if he loses his spot next to barkov.

Verhaeghe won’t lose his spot, unless he loses it on his own. He and Barkov were part of one of the best lines in the league, and that was with a rotation of RWers. That will probably continue this season with Reinhart on RW.

 

[Tripledeke333]

People have been predicting The Bruins to fall off for years and it just never happens. Losing Krejci hurts them, Rask is a question mark (although Ullmark/Swayman should be solid) and the defensive depth is thin but they'll still finish 1-3. Way too much high-end talent, forward depth, strength at RHD and goal for them to fall off this season. They're also incredibly structured.

If they had Krecji I would have them in the POs. With the division being so competitive I just have them regressing.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Verhaeghe won’t lose his spot, unless he loses it on his own. He and Barkov were part of one of the best lines in the league, and that was with a rotation of RWers. That will probably continue this season with Reinhart on RW.

Verhaeghe is one guys I'm taking a wait-and-see approach with. I'm skeptical if he'll continue to be as productive as he was this past season.

On the flipside, I think the addition of Reinhart and having Bennett for a full season will offset any drop in Verhaeghe's production.

 

[DrMartinVanNostrand]

Tampa curbstomped the Habs. How do you figure they finish ahead of them?

Not that I think the Habs will finish that high in the division, but what happens in a best-of-7 playoff series is totally different than an 82-game schedule. The Lightning are going to be pacing themselves to begin this season. Two straight Cup runs and 47 playoff games in the last 14 months will do that to you. I'd be surprised if they won the division. It's not their goal, really, and they know they can win enough road games anyway no matter what. They have bigger fish to fry.