Predators Hockey Discussion 22-23

[AintLifeGrand]

There's an interesting trend here lately.

Last year and earlier this year it was all the rage to bitch that one or both of Trenin and Jeanott weren't being given the opportunity to play in a top 6 role with "better line mates".

What happened to that?

Now people are calling them decent fourth liners and replacement type players. That they should be considered the fourth line grinders for this team.

I think all bets are off until we get a coach with a better schema

I don't think anyone ever thought Trenin was a top 6 guy...maybe a middle 6 guy

I legit thought Jeannot could become the next Jordan Steal with how he entered the league with aplomb in 21/22...I still think he could become a reliable 20-25 goal per year guy but probably not with Hynes or with the current composition of the team

I think we should deal one of Trenin and Jeannot since they are kind of redundant and this team needs more skill and speed throughout the lineup

 

[triggrman]

There's an interesting trend here lately.

Last year and earlier this year it was all the rage to bitch that one or both of Trenin and Jeanott weren't being given the opportunity to play in a top 6 role with "better line mates".

What happened to that?

Now people are calling them decent fourth liners and replacement type players. That they should be considered the fourth line grinders for this team.

I still like how they play the game but they’re getting low results. For whatever reason he still won’t put Jeannot on the power play

 

[Scoresberg]

Make no mistake about it, we're only in the playoff race because of Saros. This team isn't very good from top to bottom and changes need to be made if we ever want to achieve a true contender status again.

What's the best case scenario for this year? We make the playoffs - off of Saros' Vezina-worthy season and with Minnesota and Calgary crapping the bed - only to be bounced in the 1st round? Hynes gets an extension and the beat goes on next year as well. Mediocrity reigns supreme.

Look, I want to win as much as the next guy but sometimes you need to realize to take a step back and re-tool the team to make it back to contender status again. This what the Bruins did in 2016, the Stars in 2017, the Blues in 2018. It happens.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Make no mistake about it, we're only in the playoff race because of Saros. This team isn't very good from top to bottom and changes need to be made if we ever want to achieve a true contender status again.

What's the best case scenario for this year? We make the playoffs - off of Saros' Vezina-worthy season and with Minnesota and Calgary crapping the bed - only to be bounced in the 1st round? Hynes gets an extension and the beat goes on next year as well. Mediocrity reigns supreme.

Look, I want to win as much as the next guy but sometimes you need to realize to take a step back and re-tool the team to make it back to contender status again. This what the Bruins did in 2016, the Stars in 2017, the Blues in 2018. It happens.

Hm, I don't see that as the true "best case". The reason we want to make the playoffs is because it doesn't automatically imply being bounced in the 1st round this year. So the true best case is that we find our mojo and win a round (or two or three) in the playoffs - kind of like the Finals run year.

I mean, we're going to have to get on a good roll and have a great record down the stretch just to make the playoffs. And the last 4-5 weeks of the schedule are pretty tough ones. So just making the playoffs at all will already involve some form of finding our mojo. And this team, with Saros, and with our mojo intact, is as good as anybody in this weak Conference. Supposedly we're "built for playoff hockey".

So yes, I very much want the team to make the playoffs. Stepping back and retooling, especially with Hynes behind the bench, isn't any guaranteed path to success either. We've already done a lot of retooling and brought a lot of youth onto the team. More likely if we try to go further down that path we'll just end up, without even intending to, in a decade of even worse misery, and not actually be able to pull off the reload miracle like some other team lucked into once upon a time. This re-tool idea is no less magical than the one of going off on a magical playoff run IMO. Since they both require healthy doses of optimism and luck, I'll take the door that actually sees us win some games.

 

[herzausstein]

This team basically is what it has been under Hynes since he was coach.

Since start of 19-20 season,
G/GP: 3.0
GA/GP: 3.0
PK%: 77.0%
PP%: 17.5%

This season:
G/GP: 2.75
GA/GP: 2.94
PK%: 80.2%
PP%: 14.0%

1 goal less every 4 games this season which can either be explained by the PP% or the herds lack of scoring touch this season. This highest this team has been league ranking in GF/GP was 13th during last seasons scoring anomalous season. This season we are 26th which is closer to where weve been every other season under Hynes.

Maybe the team can play better but from a statistical viewpoint this is pretty much what we should expect. When the team on average scores as much as they get scored against, you place in the standings is a complete dice roll. You either get lucky and win alot of close games or you get unlucky and lose them

 

[Flgatorguy87]

This team basically is what it has been under Hynes since he was coach.

Since start of 19-20 season,
G/GP: 3.0
GA/GP: 3.0
PK%: 77.0%
PP%: 17.5%

This season:
G/GP: 2.75
GA/GP: 2.94
PK%: 80.2%
PP%: 14.0%

1 goal less every 4 games this season which can either be explained by the PP% or the herds lack of scoring touch this season. This highest this team has been league ranking in GF/GP was 13th during last seasons scoring anomalous season. This season we are 26th which is closer to where weve been every other season under Hynes.

Maybe the team can play better but from a statistical viewpoint this is pretty much what we should expect. When the team on average scores as much as they get scored against, you place in the standings is a complete dice roll. You either get lucky and win alot of close games or you get unlucky and lose them

Extra Extra! "Mediocre Team Gets Mediocre Results!"

 

[herzausstein]

Extra Extra! "Mediocre Team Gets Mediocre Results!"

Thing is....

We have been remarkably consistent over the last 2 coaches.

Lavi avgs
GF/GP: 2.89
GA/GP: 2.56
PK%: 81.4%
PP%: 17.8%

This isnt terribly different from Hynes in terms of raw numbers but the league as a whole is increasing scoring and we are standing still. Lavi only had 1 season where we were in the bottom half of the league in GF/GP. Hynes has only had 1 season where we weren't in the bottom half of the league in GF/GP.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

Thing is....

We have been remarkably consistent over the last 2 coaches.

Lavi avgs
GF/GP: 2.89
GA/GP: 2.56
PK%: 81.4%
PP%: 17.8%

This isnt terribly different from Hynes in terms of raw numbers but the league as a whole is increasing scoring and we are standing still. Lavi only had 1 season where we were in the bottom half of the league in GF/GP. Hynes has only had 1 season where we weren't in the bottom half of the league in GF/GP.

I am not surprised by this. I think by in large, we have a very average to below average team that has been slightly propped up by goaltending.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Make no mistake about it, we're only in the playoff race because of Saros. This team isn't very good from top to bottom and changes need to be made if we ever want to achieve a true contender status again.

What's the best case scenario for this year? We make the playoffs - off of Saros' Vezina-worthy season and with Minnesota and Calgary crapping the bed - only to be bounced in the 1st round? Hynes gets an extension and the beat goes on next year as well. Mediocrity reigns supreme.

Look, I want to win as much as the next guy but sometimes you need to realize to take a step back and re-tool the team to make it back to contender status again. This what the Bruins did in 2016, the Stars in 2017, the Blues in 2018. It happens.

There isn't much in the way of major re-tooling possible until some of the big contracts start to come off the books. Sure, we can trade a Granlund, Nino, or Sissons and get a couple of picks that won't be relevant to the roster for 3-4 years, or a prospect that isn't going to be as good as the ones waiting to push the roster already, but we're still going to be about the same team next season, and the season after that, that we are right now--still mediocre, still a bubble team, still a first round exit candidate. I'll take my mediocrity with a few extra wins and the very slim chance everything can align right in the post-season rather than hoping for the slim chance that a lottery ball will move us higher than 15th.

 

[LCPreds]

Sometimes, on the smallest of levels*, I wish we hadn't made the finals as an 8 seed. It seems to always pop up as an argument as proof that 'anything can happen' so just continuing to flounder in no man's land is a worthwhile strategy.

*That Finals run was awesome and I was at every one of those home games. Wouldn't trade it for anything. I just think it set up some crazy expectations of what a normal 8 seed can do.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

Sometimes, on the smallest of levels*, I wish we hadn't made the finals as an 8 seed. It seems to always pop up as an argument as proof that 'anything can happen' so just continuing to flounder in no man's land is a worthwhile strategy.

*That Finals run was awesome and I was at every one of those home games. Wouldn't trade it for anything. I just think it set up some crazy expectations of what a normal 8 seed can do.

It does feel a little bit like a gift and a curse. I said it last week, but I've never had more fun as a fan than I did on that run...but how long can we try to squeak in and use the same "you never know what will happen" line with this team?

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Sometimes, on the smallest of levels*, I wish we hadn't made the finals as an 8 seed. It seems to always pop up as an argument as proof that 'anything can happen' so just continuing to flounder in no man's land is a worthwhile strategy.

*That Finals run was awesome and I was at every one of those home games. Wouldn't trade it for anything. I just think it set up some crazy expectations of what a normal 8 seed can do.

If you're referring to my post I consider that run to be irrelevant and don't use that as a basis for any hope. I'm just naïve and want my teams to give their best game in and game out and win as many games as they can--it's how I always played every sport and what I want for all the teams I follow. I think consistently making the playoffs, whether first round exit or no, is still an accomplishment and will always prefer that to the chance at a better lottery ticket.

 

[LCPreds]

If you're referring to my post I consider that run to be irrelevant and don't use that as a basis for any hope. I'm just naïve and want my teams to give their best game in and game out and win as many games as they can--it's how I always played every sport and what I want for all the teams I follow. I think consistently making the playoffs, whether first round exit or no, is still an accomplishment and will always prefer that to the chance at a better lottery ticket.

Definitely not referencing a single post. It gets thrown around a lot.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

There isn't much in the way of major re-tooling possible until some of the big contracts start to come off the books. Sure, we can trade a Granlund, Nino, or Sissons and get a couple of picks that won't be relevant to the roster for 3-4 years, or a prospect that isn't going to be as good as the ones waiting to push the roster already, but we're still going to be about the same team next season, and the season after that, that we are right now--still mediocre, still a bubble team, still a first round exit candidate. I'll take my mediocrity with a few extra wins and the very slim chance everything can align right in the post-season rather than hoping for the slim chance that a lottery ball will move us higher than 15th.

I have a hard time believing that Poile will basically sit on his hands in the offseason and just wait for the big contracts to expire while losing the future of the team because he can't pay them.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Sometimes, on the smallest of levels*, I wish we hadn't made the finals as an 8 seed. It seems to always pop up as an argument as proof that 'anything can happen' so just continuing to flounder in no man's land is a worthwhile strategy.

*That Finals run was awesome and I was at every one of those home games. Wouldn't trade it for anything. I just think it set up some crazy expectations of what a normal 8 seed can do.

I don't believe making the playoffs as an 8 seed automatically implies a team needs to "just continue floundering in no man's land" either. Teams can improve from the 8 seed. (Hey, didn't we win the President's Trophy and become a #1 seed the very next season after being #8???)

I'm quite sure Poile's intention this season with his McDonagh, Nino, Lankinen additions was to take another step forward again. He wasn't saying "hey, let's just stay in 8th forever, maybe some year we'll get on a run." Far from it! I mean, look at our own board pre-season poll... the vast majority of us were eyeballing a #2/3 division slot. So that's another step up. And I'm sure Poile was hoping for that to bridge us on to another level once some of our prospects start stepping up and into the lineup as well, while continuing to scan the horizon for more opportunities to improve.

But there IS a lot of parity in the NHL also, and teams get on heaters or into slumps. An 8th team on a heater CAN be better than a 1 seed in the doldrums... for a little while.

Using our run is an example of "I'd rather be 8th seed than a 9th seed"... it's NOT an example of "I want to stay in 8th spot forever".

And playoffs mean more games, another environment to help our younger players develop, to identify weakness to address in the off-season, to help inspire the team to strive harder, to entice free agents to sign with us, etc. The benefits of making the playoffs outweigh any benefits of not making the playoffs.

 

[LCPreds]

And playoffs mean more games, another environment to help our younger players develop, to identify weakness to address in the off-season, to help inspire the team to strive harder, to entice free agents to sign with us, etc. The benefits of making the playoffs outweigh any benefits of not making the playoffs.

We'll just have to agree to disagree on this point. I don't think it's a good idea to never make the playoffs. But I also think there are benefits to having premium talent.

I need to come clean on something else. I'm pretty burned out with going to the games. I'd probably sell every remaining game (other than Sats) if my wife would let me. I don't know if it's just work+driving to the games+my perception of performance but when my outlook of the future is that our most likely (to me) trajectory is to be a middling team for who knows how long it just gets frustrating. I see no path with this squad. Our guys who have been paid are all old and very likely peaked last season for the most part. Our youth is fine but to me they're more supporting guys, probably no all stars in that group in my opinion, etc. I just have a more negative outlook. Negative to me being that we will just continue to maybe make the playoffs every season and play average hockey basically forever with an occasional better than average season.

 

[LCPreds]

The Athletic did a write up today on recipe of SCF winning teams and how contending teams stack up against that recipe. The Preds do make the list since still in the playoff hunt but unsurprisingly we do not stack up that well across the board.

Which playoff contenders have the right ingredients to win the Stanley Cup?

With the deadline approaching, let's evaluate the teams in the playoff mix and see who has every ingredient to be a true contender.

theathletic.com

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

We'll just have to agree to disagree on this point. I don't think it's a good idea to never make the playoffs. But I also think there are benefits to having premium talent.

Consider that our premium talents right now are Josi and Saros. Did we have to be a non-playoff team to get those guys? No. Some premium talents in our past are Weber and Rinne. Kariya. Did we have to a non-playoff team to get those guys? No. There can be other ways. Look at the Rangers... Lafreniere and Kakko are basically passengers. Panarin and Shesterkin and Adam Fox drive that bus, they found other ways too.

I need to come clean on something else. I'm pretty burned out with going to the games. I'd probably sell every remaining game (other than Sats) if my wife would let me. I don't know if it's just work+driving to the games+my perception of performance but when my outlook of the future is that our most likely (to me) trajectory is to be a middling team for who knows how long it just gets frustrating. I see no path with this squad. Our guys who have been paid are all old and very likely peaked last season for the most part. Our youth is fine but to me they're more supporting guys, probably no all stars in that group in my opinion, etc. I just have a more negative outlook. Negative to me being that we will just continue to maybe make the playoffs every season and play average hockey basically forever with an occasional better than average season.

Makes sense... how many other fans would bail or get tired of it if we were missing the playoffs for a few years instead of trying to make it? Probably a good number, and that's been something our team in a smaller market can't afford as easily as some other places might. So my "other ways" argument is probably all the more important for us than it might be for some other teams.

Now, you can say we have not been very successful so far with those "other ways". And that's fair. But I hope they keep trying.

 

[ILikeItILoveIt]

We'll just have to agree to disagree on this point. I don't think it's a good idea to never make the playoffs. But I also think there are benefits to having premium talent.

I need to come clean on something else. I'm pretty burned out with going to the games. I'd probably sell every remaining game (other than Sats) if my wife would let me. I don't know if it's just work+driving to the games+my perception of performance but when my outlook of the future is that our most likely (to me) trajectory is to be a middling team for who knows how long it just gets frustrating. I see no path with this squad. Our guys who have been paid are all old and very likely peaked last season for the most part. Our youth is fine but to me they're more supporting guys, probably no all stars in that group in my opinion, etc. I just have a more negative outlook. Negative to me being that we will just continue to maybe make the playoffs every season and play average hockey basically forever with an occasional better than average season.

I hear ya. I too have lost the spark, which I thought would never happen. I used to go to games live, record them, and watch them again at home if we won. I still record games but almost never watch them. I still care, but reality has distinguished even my eternal optimist flame. I have 6 full season tickets. It cost a pretty penny. Had them since 1998. The thought of bailing was unthinkable a few years ago. Now I question what I'm doing. I sell at least 3 or 4 of my tickets every game cuz my immediate family is busy raising their kids. I usually have to discount the heck out of them to sell, and I do. I've witnessed more clunkers this season than I could ever imagine. I remember one year (can't remember which year) when we were 32-8-1 at home. Couldn't wait to go to a game. My wife and I go to several away games each year to visit other cities. Now I feel like Bruce Willis in The Sixth Sense. They have sucked the hockey life out of me.

Yet here I sit, on the Message Board, getting ready to go to the Bruin game. Could tonight be the night they pleasantly surprise me with a win to offset the horrendous loss to the Yotes?? Like marriage vows, I'm so far in it for better or for worse. Maybe I need hockey counseling.

 

[LCPreds]

This is pretty crazy. Forget the crazy colors (unless interested in the heat map of 5v5 unblocked shot rate) and focus on the expected goals at each score variance.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I hear ya. I too have lost the spark, which I thought would never happen. I used to go to games live, record them, and watch them again at home if we won. I still record games but almost never watch them. I still care, but reality has distinguished even my eternal optimist flame. I have 6 full season tickets. It cost a pretty penny. Had them since 1998. The thought of bailing was unthinkable a few years ago. Now I question what I'm doing. I sell at least 3 or 4 of my tickets every game cuz my immediate family is busy raising their kids. I usually have to discount the heck out of them to sell, and I do. I've witnessed more clunkers this season than I could ever imagine. I remember one year (can't remember which year) when we were 32-8-1 at home. Couldn't wait to go to a game. My wife and I go to several away games each year to visit other cities. Now I feel like Bruce Willis in The Sixth Sense. They have sucked the hockey life out of me.

Yet here I sit, on the Message Board, getting ready to go to the Bruin game. Could tonight be the night they pleasantly surprise me with a win to offset the horrendous loss to the Yotes?? Like marriage vows, I'm so far in it for better or for worse. Maybe I need hockey counseling.

I understand this sentiment from the STH folks, but at the same time... are people going to be excited to go watch a team that has no chance of the playoffs right from day one of a given season? (I think we had that question posed already in another thread at one point?)

Paying to watch NHL hockey is already too expensive for me, so I never have to even think about it on that level. But I can't imagine even watching or following a team doing what Chicago or Arizona are doing from a distance, like I wouldn't watch a single game even on TV. I wouldn't know how to get motivated to follow a team that was intentionally not trying to win.

As a remote fan, it's also not that big a deal to have a few things to bitch about, like the Hynes and Tolvanen stuff, I can handle that level of frustration and keep following, and in some ways it even adds a little extra entertainment value in some ways.

 

[herzausstein]

This is pretty crazy. Forget the crazy colors (unless interested in the heat map of 5v5 unblocked shot rate) and focus on the expected goals at each score variance.

If im reading the heat map correctly, when we are down we just start hammering point shots by dmen and trying to shovel in rebounds. Then when we have a lead we just get caved in and we let alot of shots through from below the dots in all situations

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

This is pretty crazy. Forget the crazy colors (unless interested in the heat map of 5v5 unblocked shot rate) and focus on the expected goals at each score variance.

I wonder what other teams look like. But I guess we should be trying to keep the score tied most of the time?

 

[LCPreds]

I wonder what other teams look like. But I guess we should be trying to keep the score tied most of the time?

I take it as we should stop turtling or whatever amazing scheme Hynes goes into when we get up a goal.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

Typically the coach doesn't have a "turtling scheme" this team has been bad with a lead going back to the president trophy season.