Predators Hockey Discussion 22-23

[101st_fan]

Pick a Preds forward, any forward, and there is a debate to be had that they would be more effective if they were played consistently within a threesome at 5 on 5 and had a defined role. The players are saying it themselves. They don't know what the coaches expect from them from one shift to the next.

If I'm a forward who's strength is a physical game and a PK specialist, I'd rather be on the ice with two other guys who are solid in the defensive zone and know how to bang and grind in the corners. If the two other guys want to fast break constantly, I'm the weak link. Conversely, if I'm a fast break, undersized, high energy guy, I'm getting frustrated pretty quickly if my mates are constantly dumping the puck in the corner and melting the game clock. Why rush the net when you know no one is going to try to get you the puck anyway?

The flip side is the great question of which lines have clicked when left together for games in a row? It's a damned if they do, damned if they don't situation ... leave lines together or try to put the warmest/hottest hands together? For all of the complaints about lines getting mixed up the team is averaging over 3.5 goals per game since December 19th against Edmonton ... 46 goals in 13 games ... 32 of those 5on5 ... a better than 24% PP ...

That goal total is in spite of the fact that Granlund isn't scoring 5on5 (0 goals 5on5 to date, same as Cole Smith, fewer than Lauzon) ... Jeannot hasn't scored since late October ... Duchene has just four goals 5on5 (Jeannot and Duchene each had over 20 goals in that situation last season ... Sissons is outscoring both of them at ES, doubling up Jeannot overall) ... Novak is good for a goal about every four games ... Parssinen started off with a good scoring touch but is now only getting assists ...

 

[101st_fan]

Based off what Hynes and his employer and employees have told you. I have my doubts on everything he’s says at this point. I for sure don’t trust his evaluations.

I see you ignored the simple question asked and instead went on a tangent about "Hynes and his employer and employees" ... none of whom tell me a thing. What is telling and unbiased are very simple numbers which illustrate just how Tomasino compares to his fellow Admirals and made it clear why Parssinen, Novak, and Jankowski got the call ups when they did.

 

[Kat Predator]

The flip side is the great question of which lines have clicked when left together for games in a row? It's a damned if they do, damned if they don't situation ... leave lines together or try to put the warmest/hottest hands together? For all of the complaints about lines getting mixed up the team is averaging over 3.5 goals per game since December 19th against Edmonton ... 46 goals in 13 games ... 32 of those 5on5 ... a better than 24% PP ...

That goal total is in spite of the fact that Granlund isn't scoring 5on5 (0 goals 5on5 to date, same as Cole Smith, fewer than Lauzon) ... Jeannot hasn't scored since late October ... Duchene has just four goals 5on5 (Jeannot and Duchene each had over 20 goals in that situation last season ... Sissons is outscoring both of them at ES, doubling up Jeannot overall) ... Novak is good for a goal about every four games ... Parssinen started off with a good scoring touch but is now only getting assists ...

I hear what you are saying, but part of being a talent evaluator and great coach is being able to objectively assess your players and put together the systems and situations that let them excel.

Obviously, it's the NHL and we expect players to be more well rounded (or at least egg or pear shaped). But regardless of the sport, a great coach has to know his team and his opponent and scheme accordingly. Coaches that think it's all about their system, players are all interchangeable Lego bricks, and the players just need to suck it up and follow your recipe for a perfect soufflé, they often fail.

Read the room. Sometimes the snow globe needs a little shaking. Sometimes you have to have another trick in your pocket, design a system, and stick with it. Let the dust settle and coach details.

Hynes is frustrating. He both sticks with what doesn't seem to work and has his go-to coaching move of shuffling the forwards like a blackjack dealer in Vegas on speed.

 

[101st_fan]

I hear what you are saying, but part of being a talent evaluator and great coach is being able to objectively assess your players and put together the systems and situations that let them excel.

Obviously, it's the NHL and we expect players to be more well rounded (or at least egg or pear shaped). But regardless of the sport, a great coach has to know his team and his opponent and scheme accordingly. Coaches that think it's all about their system, players are all interchangeable Lego bricks, and they just need to follow your recipe for a perfect soufflé often fail.

Read the room. Sometimes the snow globe needs a little shaking. Sometimes you have to how anther trick in your pocket, design a system, and stick with it. Let the dust settle and coach details.

Hynes is frustrating. He both sticks with what doesn't seem to work and has his go-to coaching move of shuffling the forwards like a blackjack dealer in Vegas on speed.

3.54 goals per game over the last 13 games (exactly 4 weeks) ... scoring 3 or more in 10 of those games ... over 24% on the powerplay. Objectively, where is the problem when it comes to team offense lately?

The issue of late isn't who is on the lines as the team is getting the goals. The issue scoring three and still losing ... the continual odd man rushes allowed ... the penalties taken .. giving up backbreaking shorties. It's the typical subjective complaints that fill HF.

 

[Kat Predator]

3.54 goals per game over the last 13 games (exactly 4 weeks) ... scoring 3 or more in 10 of those games ... over 24% on the powerplay. Objectively, where is the problem when it comes to team offense lately?

The issue of late isn't who is on the lines as the team is getting the goals. The issue scoring three and still losing ... the continual odd man rushes allowed ... the penalties taken .. giving up backbreaking shorties. It's the typical subjective complaints that fill HF.

So forwards have no role on defense and/or communication and awareness isn't a problem with defensive breakdowns?

 

[ShagDaddy]

I always find it humorous when a specific date is cherry picked to manipulate stats.

 

[101st_fan]

So forwards have no role on defense and/or communication and awareness isn't a problem with defensive breakdowns?

Communication is. Now look back to how many times the breakdown is with an established line and defensive pairing ... with players that spent huge chunks of last season (and prior) skating together. You have to look no further back than last game when the pairing of McDonagh/Josi who have been together for a month and a half were abused ...where Forsberg and Parsinnen were out there together (a rookie that Forsberg is on record as liking to play alongside). Objectively, what data supports it was a line blender that caused the goals against?

 

[ShagDaddy]

I hear what you are saying, but part of being a talent evaluator and great coach is being able to objectively assess your players and put together the systems and situations that let them excel.

Obviously, it's the NHL and we expect players to be more well rounded (or at least egg or pear shaped). But regardless of the sport, a great coach has to know his team and his opponent and scheme accordingly. Coaches that think it's all about their system, players are all interchangeable Lego bricks, and the players just need to suck it up and follow your recipe for a perfect soufflé, they often fail.

Read the room. Sometimes the snow globe needs a little shaking. Sometimes you have to have another trick in your pocket, design a system, and stick with it. Let the dust settle and coach details.

Hynes is frustrating. He both sticks with what doesn't seem to work and has his go-to coaching move of shuffling the forwards like a blackjack dealer in Vegas on speed.

In most sports the Jimmies and Joes are more important than the X’s and O’s . Only the beat coaches are able to overcome a talent deficiency with schemes, Hynes is not one of those coaches.

 

[101st_fan]

I always find it humorous when a specific date is cherry picked to manipulate stats.

The funny thing is there is a clear shift in performance ... PP, PK, GF, and GA that aligns with the return of McDonagh, Carrier, and Lauzon from injuries. It's 3.36 goals per game if we go to the game of Carrier and Lauzon returning ... 3.50 when all three were back ... 3.54 going back a simple 4 weeks to the timeframe when they were getting back to the lineup. That also corresponds to the time when Glass shifted up in the lineup. It's almost as though there is a cause and effect relationship.

I await any analysis from you. Feel free to provide some.

In most sports the Jimmies and Joes are more important than the X’s and O’s . Only the beat coaches are able to overcome a talent deficiency with schemes, Hynes is not one of those coaches.

So is the latest argument that Hynes implements a system that stagnates talent or that there is a talent deficiency that needs a special system? Which of the mutually exclusive positions are you claiming here?

 

[triggrman]

I see you ignored the simple question asked and instead went on a tangent about "Hynes and his employer and employees" ... none of whom tell me a thing. What is telling and unbiased are very simple numbers which illustrate just how Tomasino compares to his fellow Admirals and made it clear why Parssinen, Novak, and Jankowski got the call ups when they did.

I’ll tell you that I would expect a 12 forward to score at least once in 44 games in his career. You know like the hundreds of other forwards that have played 44 games have done, all but 10 that is.

Now tell me why that’s an invalid request because he wasn’t wearing yellow laces while the back-up goal was in net on the first of back to backs on a road game.

 

[Scoresberg]

He's also scored more 5on5 goals with the Kraken than Granlund has all year ... as many as Jeannot ... one fewer than Duchene. But the 12th forward obsession continues here.

I have criticized Granlund multiple times here on this board. Past years, I always thought that in addition to his hustle, he's been able to contribute in the score sheet also. This year.. not so much.

Jeannot is an intriguing one. It seems like he's playing pretty much like he did last year (minus the unnecessary fighting) but can't score to save his life.

Duchene.. his 7 EV goals tie him with the likes of Pavelski, Larkin, Zibanejad, Lindholm. I don't really care where he scores as long as he keeps doing it. He's on pace for 22 goals, which is probably a lot closer to the true production than the 43 he had last year.

Yeah.. all the more reason not to waive a guy who can score in Tolvanen. That's the point.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I’ll tell you that I would expect a 12 forward to score at least once in 44 games in his career. You know like the hundreds of other forwards that have played 44 games have done, all but 10 that is.

Now tell me why that’s an invalid request because he wasn’t wearing yellow laces while the back-up goal was in net on the first of back to backs on a road game.

But he must have something like 4 expected goals? So he's on the ice and taking his shots. People always tell me that this or that forward who has a surprising number of goals has an unsustainably high shooting pct. So shouldn't it work in Smith's favor that he has an unsustainably low one? Surely he'll pop in 4 goals any time now! It's inevitable. You know it, I know it, and for damn sure John Hynes knows it!

 

[101st_fan]

First 10 games 3-6-1 record, 2.6 GF/g, 3.5 GA/g, 13.2 PP%, 82.1 PK% (10/7 - 11/1)
Second 10 games 6-3-1, 2.5 GF, 2.9 GA, 20% PP, 78.8 PK% (11/3 - 11/23) Parsinnen Debut
Third 10 games 4-4-2, 2.3 GF, 2.8 GA, 10.7 PP%, 65.6 PK% (11/24 - 12/19) ... McDonagh to IR following 12/2 ... Carrier/Lauzon injured, return 12/17 along with Novak
Fourth 10 games 6-2-2, 3.6 GF, 2.4 GA, 24.1 PP%, 91.9 PK% (12/21-1/11) ... coincides with McDonagh return
Last 2 games 0-2-0, 3 GF, 4.5 GA, 16.7 PP%, 57.1 PK%

So a terrible start with one PP goal in the first six games. A good second 10 game stretch that ended with the water main break. An up and down third ten game stretch that saw the team lose half of its blueline. A fourth stretch that was statistically strong taking 70% of possible points. And a last two where the offense was there but special teams and allowed odd man rushes killed the team.

 

[101st_fan]

I have criticized Granlund multiple times here on this board. Past years, I always thought that in addition to his hustle, he's been able to contribute in the score sheet also. This year.. not so much.

Jeannot is an intriguing one. It seems like he's playing pretty much like he did last year (minus the unnecessary fighting) but can't score to save his life.

Duchene.. his 7 EV goals tie him with the likes of Pavelski, Larkin, Zibanejad, Lindholm. I don't really care where he scores as long as he keeps doing it. He's on pace for 22 goals, which is probably a lot closer to the true production than the 43 he had last year.

Yeah.. all the more reason not to waive a guy who can score in Tolvanen. That's the point.

Duchene's 7ES goals include his three empty nets ... he's scored past a goalie four times at ES which puts him behind Colton Sissons in 5on5 scoring.

Tolvanen was shooting a whopping 7% and change for the Preds this season and at the time of his waiver was the callup of Gravel and McKeown and sending McCarron to the assistance program which opens a roster space but doesn't clear the cap space ... he then went unclaimed by 20 teams then sat as a healthy scratch for three weeks in Seattle. That's reality.

 

[Scoresberg]

Duchene's 7ES goals include his three empty nets ... he's scored past a goalie four times at ES which puts him behind Colton Sissons in 5on5 scoring.

Tolvanen was shooting a whopping 7% and change for the Preds this season and at the time of his waiver was the callup of Gravel and McKeown and sending McCarron to the assistance program which opens a roster space but doesn't clear the cap space ... he then went unclaimed by 20 teams then sat as a healthy scratch for three weeks in Seattle. That's reality.

Can't you see how you're proving my point post after the post?

We can discuss about our players' 5-on-5 scoring till the cows come home, but the fact is that the one guy who had the potential to put the puck in the net is now playing for another team while we're still deploying players who couldn't score even if their life depended on it. That's a clear loss for a team that's struggling to score from top to bottom of the lineup.

 

[101st_fan]

I’ll tell you that I would expect a 12 forward to score at least once in 44 games in his career. You know like the hundreds of other forwards that have played 44 games have done, all but 10 that is.

Now tell me why that’s an invalid request because he wasn’t wearing yellow laces while the back-up goal was in net on the first of back to backs on a road game.

He has the same number of 5on5 goals as Granlund this season ... but your myopic focus remains on Smith. Smith is generating assists about the same 5on5 pace as Granny Apples as well ... again you complain about Smith who plays on a line that might score what, 12 ish goals based on typical goal distribution across lines? He still has a long way to go to be a 1g in 100+ games guy like Patrick Cote or 0g in over like Sesisto or Gordie Dwyer. The lengths you're reach to have anything to complain about regarding Smith are quite astounding.


I honestly have no clue what your "invalid request" thing is about since it doesn't tie at all to the post you replied to. If it is some attempted allusion to the simple stats that justified the other players called up ahead of him ... smh.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Can't you see how you're proving my point post after the post?

We can discuss about our players' 5-on-5 scoring till the cows come home, but the fact is that the one guy who had the potential to put the puck in the net is now playing for another team while we're still deploying players who couldn't score even if their life depended on it. That's a clear loss for a team that's struggling to score from top to bottom of the lineup.

Pfft. Like Tolvanen could score any goals at all for us. From the pressbox.

 

[101st_fan]

Can't you see how you're proving my point post after the post?

We can discuss about our players' 5-on-5 scoring till the cows come home, but the fact is that the one guy who had the potential to put the puck in the net is now playing for another team while we're still deploying players who couldn't score even if their life depended on it. That's a clear loss for a team that's struggling to score from top to bottom of the lineup.

Except that he simply didn't do it here outside of one run. He got the opportunities and didn't get the job done while wearing a Pred's sweater outside of his anomalous 5ish weeks where his shooting percentage jumped to over 23% then he vanished for 22 months ... reappearing with a shooting percentage of 29.4% over the past few games. It's Santorelli and Pitlick all over again ... a player does well elsewhere after not doing so here and no matter how short lived it is or how out of any sustainable level it is HF latches on and screams "look ... look" only to ignore the inevitable return to the norm. He's having a great 8 game streak where he's shooting 25% ES and 40% on the PP ... if that was his norm he'd be a Hart Trophy winner by now.

Pfft. Like Tolvanen could score any goals at all for us. From the pressbox.

How many did he score in his three weeks in the Kraken pressbox? Another inconvenient detail that must be ignored for the myth of elite Tolvanen to promulgate.

 

[herzausstein]

Did it kill you when the Kraken scratched him for three weeks?

I figured they wanted to get him over, learn a new system, evaluate him, and figure out where to put him. Theyve got productive depth so they were able to take their time. Took a week or so longer than id expected though.

 

[101st_fan]

I figured they wanted to get him over, learn a new system, evaluate him, and figure out where to put him. Theyve got productive depth so they were able to take their time. Took a week or so longer than id expected though.

So it's not benching Tolvanen that kills you since you're fine with Seattle doing so ... it's just that Hynes did a thing that upsets you.

 

[Viqsi]

Tolvanen got his full seasons... over 150 shots, 7%-ish conversion last season. His hot streak in 2021 was 23%ish ... unsustainable. His current tear with the Kraken is 25% ES shooting, 40% PP ... 29.4% overall ... completely bonkers and destined to end.

Quoting this for truth. If any of y'all really want to believe that Seattle Tolvanen is the true Tolvanen, then that necessarily requires that y'all assume he's the single greatest shooting and goalscoring talent since Mike Bossy. It's just like William Karlsson in Vegas and just as insufferable in its repetition.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

As fun as this topic is across three or four threads Iets look at something else here.

The Preds basically need to win 25 games over the remaining 40 (41 if you want to go back to the mid season point, which puts them at 0-1-0) to pretty much guarantee a spot in the post season. 25 wins and a few loser points gets them to the same level they finished last season but would be markedly different in the fact that their second half would be better than the first and that is what you'd hope for going into the postseason.

 

[Scoresberg]

As fun as this topic is across three or four threads Iets look at something else here.

The Preds basically need to win 25 games over the remaining 40 (41 if you want to go back to the mid season point, which puts them at 0-1-0) to pretty much guarantee a spot in the post season. 25 wins and a few loser points gets them to the same level they finished last season but would be markedly different in the fact that their second half would be better than the first and that is what you'd hope for going into the postseason.

 

[Armourboy]

Quoting this for truth. If any of y'all really want to believe that Seattle Tolvanen is the true Tolvanen, then that necessarily requires that y'all assume he's the single greatest shooting and goalscoring talent since Mike Bossy. It's just like William Karlsson in Vegas and just as insufferable in its repetition.

I mean tbh we don't really know what is the true Tolvanen but he's done as much in his short stint than he really did here. The only major change is he has been on the side of the ice he looks to play the best on.

He may not keep up this barage, but even if he is at half of it Hynes and Poile would still have egg on their face.

 

[triggrman]

Granlund sucks, Duchene sucks Smith sucks, Forsberg sucks Jeannot sucks, Trenin sucks, Tomasino sucks, Tolvanen sucks. Or they’re all just being led to nowhere by a guy that doesn’t get the flow of the game, that doesn’t understand chemistry, that loves to throw out words like Identity and compete level. Meanwhile everyone seems to eventually regress under the him. I fully expect Novak and Glass to find the doghouse soon.

You know who won’t find the doghouse? Granlund, Josi, McDonagh, Smith, Johansen, Sissons. For whatever reason those guys can play like complete ass and not a word said.

If Fabbro ever played like McDonagh did last game he’d get waived