Predators Hockey Discussion 22-23

[Soundgarden]

Craig smith was a rather streaky player but I enjoyed him being on our team

And Smith was still good for about 20 goals a year despite his streakiness.

 

[ILikeItILoveIt]

It’s so depressing. Everytime you think we’ve turned the corner, a wheel falls off:
Saros stops being awesome
The D plays like the Oilers D
Young promising forwards regress
Penalties increase and PK regresses
Forsberg stops scoring a goal a game

Players underperforming within a score-starving system appears to be our fate. The Tolvy waive may prove the be the inflection point. Expansion teams like Vegas and Seattle shoot past us immediately with high-octane offenses while we play with “identity”

Hynes must go and we need a mindset and coaching change. Hopefully our players can adjust. Poile needs to retire. Ugh.

 

[hockey diva]

I will repeat again what I have posted before, we need a near complete house cleaning of the hockey ops department. I would keep Nichol and maybe a scout or two.

 

[101st_fan]

And Smith was still good for about 20 goals a year despite his streakiness.

Smith scored 20+ in the first three seasons where he reached the 70 game mark ... did so in five out of six seasons as a Pred, then posted 18 in 69 games in his last year. Tolvy scored 11 in 75 games last season. The difference between Smith and Tolvanen so far is that Smith would put together multiple streaks a season and hit 20+ consistently. Tolvanen from his time at Jokerit up until now has put together one offensive outburst per season ... maybe this is something more, maybe not. Time will tell.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

If we agree that current ownership is not going to force any changes, then it still comes down to Poile himself deciding to retire. Or at least take action on firing the coach.

But if he goes on his own terms, it's not like he'll clean out the front office, those are his guys, and we still think it's likely he could just pass the torch to his son, right?

I don't know if that path is really going to help us. Poile tried a lot of things with the roster, and a lot of them looked pretty good at the time. He moved on from some established players at the right time, he grabbed some new ones that seemed to fit our needs. Our drafting has been pretty good lately (at least, as far as we can tell for now). He has basically dropped 2 balls, but one of them is kind of a satellite to the other. Hiring Hynes was the big mistake. Waiving Tolvanen is probably related to the coaching mistake.

I would keep Poile on for now, if he could just put aside his usual patience/magnanimity and fire Hynes.

But maybe also, since he HAS made so many moves in recent years to retool things, and the team is just getting worse, it will motivate him more to just retire and pass the torch. It's going to be up to him, anyway. But I don't really relish the idea of the change that is likely to come when he departs. It's likely that we'd just be jumping from the frying pan into the fire, alas.

 

[Kat Predator]

I think Poile's comment is partially a fable as well. Did they really try Tolvanen in lots of different schemes and designs? Because memory is more square peg, round hole, force him to adapt to the desired scheme and the players he was chained to. Maybe he had a completely forgettable shift where they let him do something different.

I've been watching the Kraken games and I do think he is being used differently now than the Predators used him. He's in a different system altogether for starters. Hakstol doesn't blend lines from shift to shift and game to game for starters. He's on the 3rd line with two skilled guys who can score and drive the play. He's involved on the forecheck, but he's not spending shifts digging pucks in the corner. He is crashing the net hard, and finding open spaces in front of the net for shots (reminds me of Fiala, Arvidsson under Lavi). The line he is on plays a fast break style and creates a lot of chances off the rush. They create turnovers rather than stand in front of the net watching the puck cycle. It also helps that all 4 lines can play the fast break style, wearing out the opponent's defense. On the PP, Hakstol put him on the right wall, which is arguably "less creative" perhaps, but the absolute right place to put him to maximize his laser one-timer. Defensively, he is contributing as well and playing within the structure. In transition, he and his linemates connect the dots with solid passes and minimize turnovers and dump in zone entries.

In short, he's getting to the right places at the right times, showing awareness and a combination of speed and patience. His linemates are finding him and he's delivering offense. He's fitting in. The talent he is showing with his shot literally drops jaws.

 

[Kat Predator]

If we agree that current ownership is not going to force any changes, then it still comes down to Poile himself deciding to retire. Or at least take action on firing the coach.

But if he goes on his own terms, it's not like he'll clean out the front office, those are his guys, and we still think it's likely he could just pass the torch to his son, right?

I don't know if that path is really going to help us. Poile tried a lot of things with the roster, and a lot of them looked pretty good at the time. He moved on from some established players at the right time, he grabbed some new ones that seemed to fit our needs. Our drafting has been pretty good lately (at least, as far as we can tell for now). He has basically dropped 2 balls, but one of them is kind of a satellite to the other. Hiring Hynes was the big mistake. Waiving Tolvanen is probably related to the coaching mistake.

I would keep Poile on for now, if he could just put aside his usual patience/magnanimity and fire Hynes.

But maybe also, since he HAS made so many moves in recent years to retool things, and the team is just getting worse, it will motivate him more to just retire and pass the torch. It's going to be up to him, anyway. But I don't really relish the idea of the change that is likely to come when he departs. It's likely that we'd just be jumping from the frying pan into the fire, alas.

I am not enthused about Poile Jr. just stepping in for Poile because of nepotism. Maybe with the ownership changes, this hereditary regency model for leading the franchise can be avoided. New blood and new ideas are important to adapt any business in a changing world.

 

[101st_fan]

I think Poile's comment is partially a fable as well. Did they really try Tolvanen in lots of different schemes and designs? Because memory is more square peg, round hole, force him to adapt to the desired scheme and the players he was chained to. Maybe he had a completely forgettable shift where they let him do something different.

I've been watching the Kraken games and I do think he is being used differently now than the Predators used him. He's in a different system altogether for starters. Hakstol doesn't blend lines from shift to shift and game to game for starters. He's on the 3rd line with two skilled guys who can score and drive the play. He's involved on the forecheck, but he's not spending shifts digging pucks in the corner. He is crashing the net hard, and finding open spaces in front of the net for shots (reminds me of Fiala, Arvidsson under Lavi). The line he is on plays a fast break style and creates a lot of chances off the rush. They create turnovers rather than stand in front of the net watching the puck cycle. It also helps that all 4 lines can play the fast break style, wearing out the opponent's defense. On the PP, Hakstol put him on the right wall, which is arguably "less creative" perhaps, but the absolute right place to put him to maximize his laser one-timer. Defensively, he is contributing as well and playing within the structure. In transition, he and his linemates connect the dots with solid passes and minimize turnovers and dump in zone entries.

In short, he's getting to the right places at the right times, showing awareness and a combination of speed and patience. His linemates are finding him and he's delivering offense. He's fitting in. The talent he is showing with his shot literally drops jaws.

So it's March 2021 all over again.

 

[101st_fan]

If I were to get upset about a player with zero 5on5 goals it would be Granlund. There are expectations that he score a few among his assists ... and the .02 difference in assists per 60 (5on5 only) between him and Smith is troubling. One is a multi-million dollar guy slotted in the top six that we traded Fiala for who currently has no 5on5 goals, 10 5on5 assists ... the other is a near league minimum salaried 12th forward with 0g, 6a in 5on5 play. Duchene and Jeannot are the next two on the list of deserving ire for their 5on5 performance ... on pace for 8 and 6 goals respectively 5on5 after 20+ each last season.

 

[Kat Predator]

So it's March 2020 all over again.

Well, obviously there hasn't been enough games at this point to say Tolvanen isn't just having a brief hot streak and he'll vanish or not.

I think I was clear though that he's not playing for John Hynes any longer. He's not playing in the same system. He's not playing with the same linemates or team.

I don't think players are plastic toy figurines that remain static from mold and incapable of change or improvement for their entire career.

If Eeli Tolvanen has a steady NHL career it will be as a solid 200' player in the middle 6, providing offense (even if streaky), and most likely in a fast break system that generates enough chaos for him to find the holes to use his shot.

 

[101st_fan]

Well, obviously there hasn't been enough games at this point to say Tolvanen isn't just having a brief hot streak and he'll vanish or not.

I think I was clear though that he's not playing for John Hynes any longer. He's not playing in the same system. He's not playing with the same linemates or team.

I don't think players are plastic toy figurines that remain static from mold and incapable of change or improvement for their entire career.

If Eeli Tolvanen has a steady NHL career it will be as a solid 200' player in the middle 6, providing offense (even if streaky), and most likely in a fast break system that generates enough chaos for him to find the holes to use his shot.

We said the same thing about him here for over two seasons. We got the great streak in 2021 (I corrected my typo in the earlier), a brief four game run last season, and his fairly hot start in Prague. During all of those it was talk about how he was getting open, the amazing shot, etc ... and every previous time it just vanished. The nearly 30% success rate on his shots with Seattle is highly unlikely to be sustainable ... the 23%+ of March 2021 wasn't sustainable ... his remaining time was a shooting percentage in the 7-11% range and with his still relatively low shot volume in Seattle (about 2 per game) he needs that outlier shooting percentage for the type goal totals he has in this short run. Based on history, I don't expect him to maintain a shooting percentage about nine points higher than McDavid's ... but that's just me.

 

[Kat Predator]

We said the same thing about him here for over two seasons. We got the great streak in 2021 (I corrected my typo in the earlier), a brief four game run last season, and his fairly hot start in Prague. During all of those it was talk about how he was getting open, the amazing shot, etc ... and every previous time it just vanished. The nearly 30% success rate on his shots with Seattle is highly unlikely to be sustainable ... the 23%+ of March 2021 wasn't sustainable ... his remaining time was a shooting percentage in the 7-11% range and with his still relatively low shot volume in Seattle (about 2 per game) he needs that outlier shooting percentage for the type goal totals he has in this short run. Based on history, I don't expect him to maintain a shooting percentage about nine points higher than McDavid's ... but that's just me.

I trust that he's going to be human and not continue to score at a 1 point per game pace. It comes down to "vanishing". Is it a law of physics that he will vanish and never contribute a point again after some n games? Or will he be able to improve his game so that the "vanishing" is its own streak period? Will he have periods of high production in offensive stats, periods where the stats sheets don't show his contributions, followed by more periods of high production in the offensive stats? No one knows. If it all averages out to 0.3+ points per game, then he'll be measurably a legit NHL mid-6 forward. He's still a young player and he might finally be in the right system.

 

[Armourboy]

Honestly I don't think the decision to waive Tolvanen will both Poile in the future, but I think his decision to hire Hynes is going to haunt him for the rest of his career. Hynes is why Tolvanen isn't here, why Tomasino isn't here, and why this team continues to flounder even though Poile seemingly made the right moves in the offseason. I think Poile has trapped himself. He doesn't want to fire a second coach in a row midseason but I think he knows what we do, Hynes needs to go. If he isn't let go at the end of the season it just says to me Poile is willing to waste another season, and if he extends him again I think they will find themselves having a hard time putting butts in seats.

 

[Scoresberg]

Tolvanen scored more goals last night in 12 minutes than Smith has in 44 games.

 

[herzausstein]

Tolvanen scored more goals last night in 12 minutes than Smith has in 44 games.

Thing is... if tolvanen was still here hynes wouldnt be playing him... it kills me to see how he is playing elsewhere but im really glad he is getting the opportunity

 

[101st_fan]

Thing is... if tolvanen was still here hynes wouldnt be playing him... it kills me to see how he is playing elsewhere but im really glad he is getting the opportunity

Did it kill you when the Kraken scratched him for three weeks?

 

[101st_fan]

Tolvanen scored more goals last night in 12 minutes than Smith has in 44 games.

He's also scored more 5on5 goals with the Kraken than Granlund has all year ... as many as Jeannot ... one fewer than Duchene. But the 12th forward obsession continues here.

 

[Predsanddead24]

So is there any real reason Tomasino is still in Milwaukee? I don’t think he ever should have been there this season, but even if you think he needed to fine tune his game he’s been on a tear recently and even Poile said he’s ready for another shot. Just seems silly to not try and fit him in the lineup given he has already shown he can keep up in the NHL and clearly has the talent.

 

[triggrman]

He's also scored more 5on5 goals with the Kraken than Granlund has all year ... as many as Jeannot ... one fewer than Duchene. But the 12th forward obsession continues here.

If the coach can’t figure out how to use talented players like Tolvanen or Tomasino or that Smith isn’t a NHL level player. What does it matter the lines they play on?

 

[nine_inch_fang]

So is there any real reason Tomasino is still in Milwaukee? I don’t think he ever should have been there this season, but even if you think he needed to fine tune his game he’s been on a tear recently and even Poile said he’s ready for another shot. Just seems silly to not try and fit him in the lineup given he has already shown he can keep up in the NHL and clearly has the talent.

I wouldn't think there's a reason. I didn't have a problem with his reassignment and expected him to be back already but the injury slowed that timeline down. Time to continue the youth movement, the young centers are fully integrated in the lineup so now make room in the top six for Tomasino.

I'd easily place him with Parssinen and Forsberg. Parssinen and Tomasino should have a strong transition game and Forsberg can be there for offensive zone possession and shooting.

 

[Kat Predator]

So is there any real reason Tomasino is still in Milwaukee? I don’t think he ever should have been there this season, but even if you think he needed to fine tune his game he’s been on a tear recently and even Poile said he’s ready for another shot. Just seems silly to not try and fit him in the lineup given he has already shown he can keep up in the NHL and clearly has the talent.

Maybe they are saving the spot for McCarron?

 

[101st_fan]

If the coach can’t figure out how to use talented players like Tolvanen or Tomasino or that Smith isn’t a NHL level player. What does it matter the lines they play on?

For all of your griping about the 12th forward, here is a very simple question. What are the realistic expectations for 4th line scoring at ES and Smith's part of that (he doesn't play PP and shorties are typically are 5ish for a team each season)? 155 goals 5on5 is mid point for teams in full 82 game seasons since 2015 ... Smith is currently on pace for 12 assists 5on5, 10 of those primary (pace for 16 total assists with factoring in shorthanded and empty net points). For all of your posting about Smith, the 12th forward, where is the ire directed at Granlund and his 0 goals 5on5? One of them is a 4th line banger, one is paid to play in the top 6 and isn't outperforming your whipping boy at 5on5, exact same goal total, similar assists, nearly identical assists/60.


Tolvanen got his full seasons... over 150 shots, 7%-ish conversion last season. His hot streak in 2021 was 23%ish ... unsustainable. His current tear with the Kraken is 25% ES shooting, 40% PP ... 29.4% overall ... completely bonkers and destined to end. The reality is Tolvanen got 2nd line time, 4th line time, PP time, and other than a few weeks put numerous shots right into goalies rather than hitting his spot. If he can find a way to turn this into a longer term thing, great for him but this is absolutely nothing he hasn't done short term in the past ... Jokerit, COVID season, even last season when he put up a four game goal streak.

 

[101st_fan]

I wouldn't think there's a reason. I didn't have a problem with his reassignment and expected him to be back already but the injury slowed that timeline down. Time to continue the youth movement, the young centers are fully integrated in the lineup so now make room in the top six for Tomasino.

I'd easily place him with Parssinen and Forsberg. Parssinen and Tomasino should have a strong transition game and Forsberg can be there for offensive zone possession and shooting.

I thought he'd be up by now but he fell behind Novak, Parssinen, and Jankowski in terms of performance for the Ads. He's currently in a statistical dead heat with Sherwood and slightly outperforming Evangalista from a points per game viewpoint. HF and Twitter are full of "last season" comments when the reality is that Tomasino needed to make the case for call up based on this season's numbers ... and based on this season he's in position for the next call up, maybe.

 

[Kat Predator]

Pick a Preds forward, any forward, and there is a debate to be had that they would be more effective if they were played consistently within a threesome at 5 on 5 and had a defined role. The players are saying it themselves. They don't know what the coaches expect from them from one shift to the next.

If I'm a forward who's strength is a physical game and a PK specialist, I'd rather be on the ice with two other guys who are solid in the defensive zone and know how to bang and grind in the corners. If the two other guys want to fast break constantly, I'm the weak link. Conversely, if I'm a fast break, undersized, high energy guy, I'm getting frustrated pretty quickly if my mates are constantly dumping the puck in the corner and melting the game clock. Why rush the net when you know no one is going to try to get you the puck anyway?

 

[triggrman]

I thought he'd be up by now but he fell behind Novak, Parssinen, and Jankowski in terms of performance for the Ads. He's currently in a statistical dead heat with Sherwood and slightly outperforming Evangalista from a points per game viewpoint. HF and Twitter are full of "last season" comments when the reality is that Tomasino needed to make the case for call up based on this season's numbers ... and based on this season he's in position for the next call up, maybe.

Based off what Hynes and his employer and employees have told you. I have my doubts on everything he’s says at this point. I for sure don’t trust his evaluations.