Predators Hockey Discussion 22-23

[Softball99]

The only favorable scenario would be another hockey trade...like Joey and Fabs for Horvat Myers type deal

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

He's not, but we're probably not acquiring anyone with any cap space gained from trading him that will be better. Not to mention throwing Parsnip and Glass into the deep end as the centers is probably a not recipe for success (both on a team-level and they are both probably best off with someone to help insulate their minutes still).

I'm more concerned by having both Ekholm and McDonagh's contracts on the books (for an additional year) than Joey's.

The difference is we definitely have nobody who could replace Ekholm or McDonagh ready.

Joey... well... it's small samples so far, but at least we have glimmers of hope. His bar is not very high, and Parssinen and Glass are at least pushing the bar.

 

[BigFatCat999]

Nuclear option. Trade Saros

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Nuclear option. Trade Saros

Earliest that could arrive is next year… IF we promote Askarov and he starts to run with the ball.

But I don’t expect a goalie to fetch much in a trade anyway. It never really goes “nuclear”. If Askarov makes Saros expendable then oh nice we get some extra late 1st that may or may not pan out after 5 years, but really makes no impact to our trajectory.

 

[Kat Predator]

For a 6'3"/215ish center, you get a lot of leeway. He has size, and when he's on... yes, he's actually worth $8M. But... for him the question is always about "when he is on". He is good on faceoffs, I don't think his 2-way game really lags even when it "looks like" he is kind of slacking... he knows how to play the game. But... end of the day he had: 36pts in 68 games in 2019-20 (0.53 ppg); 22 pts in 48 games in 2020-21 (0.46 ppg); a nice rebound in 2021-22 with 63 pts in 79 games (0.80 ppg); and now 18 pts in 32 games ( 0.56 ppg).

I think you need at least 0.75ppg in his role to even hope to justify that salary, even with his other credentials. Soooo... 3 out of the last 4 years he is not doing that.

I'm sure it's not what you mean, but I don't necessarily think that solid center play can be defined strictly by points per game. But if we dig into this one stat, we see that RyJo hovered around .7-.8 pts/gm when he played under Lavi ... except for the year Lavi ended up fired. So, not perfect, but for this one measurement, maybe not quite so bad either.

Under Hynes, this number is much lower except for the 1 anomalous season (the last one). I haven't heard a good theory why the entire team seems to have statistically stood on its head last season, but the numbers are there in black and white. Under Hynes, the team has been exceptionally ho-hum and largely struggled offensively ... except for 21-22 when just about everyone clicked.

One of the problems with this stat as a useful metric is the way the two coaches utilized the players on the roster. Under Lavi, RyJo was the #1C. Game in. Game out. He also played in all situations and played night after night between the two Swedes. (And people here still complained about his contract, of course.)

But under Hynes, he's played on every line as a center. Spending time on grinder lines, spare parts lines, centering lines with guys that can't score, brief runs at #1C with wingers selected by roulette wheel. I'm not in the least bit surprised that the numbers show this inconsistency in spades. It's hard to be consistent and reach one's potential when the boss believes in change for the sake of change.

 

[PredsV82]

They also found elite-level players outside the top 5 or the first round. Kuch and Point were 2nd and 4th rounders. Letang was a 3rd rounder.

Josi was a 2nd rounder
Saros was a 4th rounder.

 

[cool beans]

Josi was a 2nd rounder
Saros was a 4th rounder.

Arvy 3rd? Maybe 4th
Erat was later rounds I believe


There’s more

 

[Viqsi]

Arvy 3rd? Maybe 4th
Erat was later rounds I believe


There’s more

Yeah, but they're not on the current roster, and I think that was the point (so, for example, fourth-rounder Ekholm was missing). If you go throughout team history, then you also get to add in guys like Weber, Hamhuis, Hornqvist, and of course Rinne.

 

[cool beans]

Yeah, but they're not on the current roster, and I think that was the point (so, for example, fourth-rounder Ekholm was missing). If you go throughout team history, then you also get to add in guys like Weber, Hamhuis, Hornqvist, and of course Rinne.

Of course

There’s been plenty of hits in later rounds.

 

[Viqsi]

Of course

There’s been plenty of hits in later rounds.

It also occurs to me that the post originally being replied to was about elite-level players rather than Really Good. So Weber and Rinne would still qualify. But obviously they're not here now.

 

[PredsV82]

It also occurs to me that the post originally being replied to was about elite-level players rather than Really Good. So Weber and Rinne would still qualify. But obviously they're not here now.

Yeah that's why I only listed Josi and Saros

Our problem isnt that Poile hasnt found elite players in lower rounds it's that our players who were someone else's top picks dont play up to their draft number. (Which is why they changed teams to begin with, so....)

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Yeah, but they're not on the current roster, and I think that was the point (so, for example, fourth-rounder Ekholm was missing). If you go throughout team history, then you also get to add in guys like Weber, Hamhuis, Hornqvist, and of course Rinne.

None of the higher-tier forwards are (1st rounder or no), which as I mentioned in a different post seems really strange. Doucheulov, Hornqvist, Arvy, Smith, Wilson, Fiala all traded or let go. Hard to think of a truly successful team that isn't led by forwards drafted and developed in-house.

 

[glenngineer]

Josi was a 2nd rounder
Saros was a 4th rounder.

How many times I have screamed about this. Elite forward talent. Guys that can take over a shift. Guys that make those around them better. Guys that make all the guys we currently have slot into the lines and roles they’re better suited for. Poile has never drafted a HOF worthy forward in 40 years as a GM. Let that sink in. 40 freaking years without being able to identify or hire staff that can identify elite level talent up front.

 

[GeauxPreds1]

Arvy 3rd? Maybe 4th
Erat was later rounds I believe


There’s more

Speaking of arvy, it really sucks seeing 2 former preds top 3 in la in scoring. Man we kept kunin over arvy. Another bad move from Poile

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Speaking of arvy, it really sucks seeing 2 former preds top 3 in la in scoring. Man we kept kunin over arvy. Another bad move from Poile

Like Hynes would have any use for Arvy, or our team could ever actually spring his breaks. We got some decent picks for him just before his value would have sunk completely under Hynes. So I don't think the trade was the bad move by Poile there, alas.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

As of right now Arvidsson is healthy and playing how one would expect him to play when healthy. His health was the question at the time of the trade, whether he'd be able to play more than 50-60 games a season and how effective he could be after getting banged up during the season, which inevitably was going to happen playing in the central division.

I wish no ill will upon Viktor and I hope he has a long productive career. That doesn't mean it was a mistake to get the assets out of what seemed to be a broken player that got injured every season, including his first in LA.

 

[Scoresberg]

Another move from Poile that you could've justified at the time it happened, but looking back the move - once again - looks really bad.

A proven 20-goal, 50-point scorer with term left on his deal for a 2nd and 3rd rounder.

Oh well, under Hynes he would've been waived or something.

 

[101st_fan]

I don't think anybody has to be especially "hockey literate" to determine that he's NOT worth $8M.

For a 6'3"/215ish center, you get a lot of leeway. He has size, and when he's on... yes, he's actually worth $8M. But... for him the question is always about "when he is on". He is good on faceoffs, I don't think his 2-way game really lags even when it "looks like" he is kind of slacking... he knows how to play the game. But... end of the day he had: 36pts in 68 games in 2019-20 (0.53 ppg); 22 pts in 48 games in 2020-21 (0.46 ppg); a nice rebound in 2021-22 with 63 pts in 79 games (0.80 ppg); and now 18 pts in 32 games ( 0.56 ppg).

I think you need at least 0.75ppg in his role to even hope to justify that salary, even with his other credentials. Soooo... 3 out of the last 4 years he is not doing that.

I don't "hate" him either. I would love to have him on the team at $4-5M. This is his 8th year with us, and we really haven't had any other options over those 8 years anyway, so most of the time this same thing came up I just dismissed it with the standard "we don't have anybody else" statements that everybody is still recycling.

But things MIGHT be changing. Parssinen and Glass could be on a similar level now. We haven't had that before. They are still not "elite #1C" types. But it isn't THAT high a threshold to be a decent 0.5 ppg top-2 center with some size who plays an okay 2-way game. These guys seem to be showing signs they could meet that bar. It's just not THAT high a bar, alas. Faceoff ability is nice, but it's very minor. You don't pay a guy $8M just because he can win 10% more faceoffs, 95% of which mean nothing. I actually kind of like Joey overall. But our Cap situation opens the door to a more pragmatic perspective.

Neither Parssinen nor Glass is at the same level as Joey now. They might be in a couple of years but even that remains to be seen.

The only way Joey is on the team at under $5mil is if he takes a discount after this contract expires. It's just what the market is now. With Joey's .68 points per game from the start of 2016 through today he isn't getting a 35-50% pay cut, especially once this flat cap period ends.

 

[101st_fan]

How many times I have screamed about this. Elite forward talent. Guys that can take over a shift. Guys that make those around them better. Guys that make all the guys we currently have slot into the lines and roles they’re better suited for. Poile has never drafted a HOF worthy forward in 40 years as a GM. Let that sink in. 40 freaking years without being able to identify or hire staff that can identify elite level talent up front.

Just how many of the 284 men (or the 9 women) in the HHOF do you think Poile should have drafted as forwards? That's the total inducted since 1945 ... a group that includes players that never played in the NHL.

The HHOF inducted about 49 forwards (men and women ... NHL and international players) since the turn of the century when the first of Poile's draft picks could possibly play, put up good enough numbers, retire, then wait for induction. So, no ... Peter Bondra's 500+ career goals and two 50+ goal seasons didn't make the cut. Scott Stevens sure as hell did.

 

[LCPreds]

Hmmm

Hmmm part 2. I need some cap education here or something.

 

[101st_fan]

Hmmm part 2. I need some cap education here or something.

It's number games at this point. Novak's hit is just over $4k per day but sending him down provides a small .... very small ... counterbalance against McCarron and Boro still serving as cap hits while out. In the big picture there is probably minimal reason to make that move.

 

[triggrman]

Just how many of the 284 men (or the 9 women) in the HHOF do you think Poile should have drafted as forwards? That's the total inducted since 1945 ... a group that includes players that never played in the NHL.

The HHOF inducted about 49 forwards (men and women ... NHL and international players) since the turn of the century when the first of Poile's draft picks could possibly play, put up good enough numbers, retire, then wait for induction. So, no ... Peter Bondra's 500+ career goals and two 50+ goal seasons didn't make the cut. Scott Stevens sure as hell did.

Poile didn't draft Stevens. Interim general manager Roger Crozier managed the draft for the Capitals in June of 1982, Poile was hired in August 30, 1982.

 

[Kat Predator]

Hmmm part 2. I need some cap education here or something.

It's probably less about cap and more about keeping his waiver exemption intact.

 

[herzausstein]

He's not, but we're probably not acquiring anyone with any cap space gained from trading him that will be better. Not to mention throwing Parsnip and Glass into the deep end as the centers is probably a not recipe for success (both on a team-level and they are both probably best off with someone to help insulate their minutes still).

I'm more concerned by having both Ekholm and McDonagh's contracts on the books (for an additional year) than Joey's.

Looking at our contracts that are big enough to actually gain significant capspace

Forsberg - not being traded after being signed.

Duchene - playing well but unlikely to have alot of positive value due to contract and then you have to actually replace his point per game pace hes been on since last season. I just dont see him as a good candidate.

Joey - good defensive 2C being paid 1C money. He can perform at 1C level at times but it has been rare for extended periods over the past several seasons. Might have some positive trade value if you retain heavily or take back a bad contract.

Granlund - likely has some positive value. Has been moved to wing recently. On a 50 point pace this season which is decent for his contract.

Ekholm - should have positive value. Contract is good for now but due to age buyers might be weary.

McDonagh - has a ntc and just got here. Doubt he goes anywhere.

Josi - one of the few players poile has given a nmc to. Hes nkt going anywhere.

Niederreiter - probably got good value but do we trade someone who just signed here and what does that day to future free agents.

I see best options as granlund, ekholm, nino. With granlund back at wing, i think hed be easier for us to move on from. It keeps joey with the team allowing some buffer on the young centers.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

It's probably less about cap and more about keeping his waiver exemption intact.

Novak is still waiver exempt, though. He has 24 more GAMES before he loses that, so the usual stuff with 10 games or 30 days for non-exempt players isn't in play here. At least per CapFriendly. So nothing on that front changes with 4 days off in Milwaukee.

It's not like other teams didn't send some guys down too for a wee sliver of Cap savings during the 4 days off. A few others were treated likewise. Many many others were not.