Predators Hockey Discussion 22-23

[101st_fan]

Joey's FO% is top ten in the league (min 30 faceoffs) ... he's tied 3rd in goals scored on the Preds (on pace for 20+) ... tied for 3rd in PP points ...

 

[cool beans]

Joey's FO% is top ten in the league (min 30 faceoffs) ... he's tied 3rd in goals scored on the Preds (on pace for 20+) ... tied for 3rd in PP points ...

Joey is solid. Hes playing his role well and is a great mentor for the young kids, always the last guy off the ice. We should resign him at a heavily discounted cap hit if he wants to stay. Joey is and has been great for us. Ppl just expect more out of him like they did w leggy

 

[glenngineer]

What is "mediocity"? If constantly making the playoffs is mediocre then Columbus would do cartwheels for mediocre

Making the playoffs only to be bounced in the first round the majority of the time I can do without.

 

[glenngineer]

Top 5 pick doesnt promise success but most cup teams have a couple top 5 picks on their team

Colorado - McKinnon, Makar
Tampa - Stamkos, Hedman
Stl - J Bouw, Pietrangelo
Penguins - crosby, malkin

Granted we got a few right now....
Duchene, joey, nino.... glass was 6th overall.

They also found elite-level players outside the top 5 or the first round. Kuch and Point were 2nd and 4th rounders. Letang was a 3rd rounder.

 

[glenngineer]

While I'm happy the team turned a corner of sorts this week, we did so against an Edmonton team that is middle of the pack, a Chitaco team that is bad and an Avs team that is banged up.

The loss against the Avs is the one that should be noted. They're playing without two of their best forwards and are without 2 of their top 6 defensemen and we took them to OT. You put those four back in the lineup and this game isn't a contest, they rip right through us like they did in the playoffs.

Rantanen had 17-18 minutes after the 2nd alone. Why are teams fail is we lack the elite level talent that other teams possess but we also fail to play our big guns more than the traditional 17-18 minutes a night. Most teams are letting their star forwards play 20ish minutes a night. Not sure why we aren't following suit.

Honestly, we can change coaches and it's not going to get much better. We need. talent overhaul and the only way that happens is if Poile rides off into the sunset.

 

[ShagDaddy]

It’s nice to have McDonagh back

 

[Armourboy]

Every GM. Per 32 thoughts GMs WANT to make a trade but contending teams don't have the cap space to MAKE a trade

Since when have you ever seen Poile leverage cap space for anything? You think he is suddenly going to do it now?

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Joey is solid. Hes playing his role well and is a great mentor for the young kids, always the last guy off the ice. We should resign him at a heavily discounted cap hit if he wants to stay. Joey is and has been great for us. Ppl just expect more out of him like they did w leggy

Joey is solid and decent. I have no way whatsoever of knowing if he's a good mentor or not. But he's 30 years old and not worth $8M per season. "Great" for us, he has never been. Sometimes worth his salary, sometimes not. Very good season last year, decent this year, somewhat terrible the two before that. Let's call a spade a spade.

So. *IF*... and this "if" is still a conditional and I don't think is 100% proved out yet... we have enough other centers who are also soild and decent... but younger and cheaper... you want the younger and cheaper options moving forward. *IF* Parssinen, Glass, Novak, Sissons give us a 1-through-4 set of centers that leaves us no worse off than using Joey, *and* they are younger and improving, *and* combined they make less than Joey... well...

Nobody expects more out of Joey anymore, nor did they out of Legwand, not people who actually watch anyway. We know who he is and what to expect in a realistic sense. This is simpler math than that. $8M is a lot, and *IF* you have cheaper alternatives that are just as good... you should always prefer the cheaper alternatives. That's just a Cap reality.

Now the questions remain: ARE the youth actually as good as they have looked recently? And would anybody even take Johansen anyway, even at $5M? I don't think either of those questions can be answered definitively yet. But we should nevertheless be asking them.

 

[Armourboy]

Joey is solid and decent. I have no way whatsoever of knowing if he's a good mentor or not. But he's 30 years old and not worth $8M per season. "Great" for us, he has never been. Sometimes worth his salary, sometimes not. Very good season last year, decent this year, somewhat terrible the two before that. Let's call a spade a spade.

So. *IF*... and this "if" is still a conditional and I don't think is 100% proved out yet... we have enough other centers who are also soild and decent... but younger and cheaper... you want the younger and cheaper options moving forward. *IF* Parssinen, Glass, Novak, Sissons give us a 1-through-4 set of centers that leaves us no worse off than using Joey, *and* they are younger and improving, *and* combined they make less than Joey... well...

Nobody expects more out of Joey anymore, nor did they out of Legwand, not people who actually watch anyway. We know who he is and what to expect in a realistic sense. This is simpler math than that. $8M is a lot, and *IF* you have cheaper alternatives that are just as good... you should always prefer the cheaper alternatives. That's just a Cap reality.

Now the questions remain: ARE the youth actually as good as they have looked recently? And would anybody even take Johansen anyway, even at $5M? I don't think either of those questions can be answered definitively yet. But we should nevertheless be asking them.

Bigger question is if Poile would eat the 3 million to start with. We've seen him do buyouts, we've seen him retain on a cheap contract but I don't think we've ever seen him retain multiple millions over multiple seasons.

If he won't do that then the rest of conversation isn't even worth having because no one is taking him at 8 million per.

Keep in mind between him and Turris that would be 5 million in dead cap space.

 

[101st_fan]

Making the playoffs only to be bounced in the first round the majority of the time I can do without.

As frustrating as it can be for fans it is good for the bottom line and there is no way to advance if you don't first get in.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Bigger question is if Poile would eat the 3 million to start with. We've seen him do buyouts, we've seen him retain on a cheap contract but I don't think we've ever seen him retain multiple millions over multiple seasons.

If he won't do that then the rest of conversation isn't even worth having because no one is taking him at 8 million per.

Keep in mind between him and Turris that would be 5 million in dead cap space.

It is also very possible that nobody out there would take him even at $5M, even if Poile would do that. Cap space is going to be at a premium for many teams.

 

[herzausstein]

Joeys buyout caphit is just under 2.67 mil per year. If you have to retain beyond that and cant get something meaningful in return it is better to buyout.

 

[cool beans]

Poile isn’t going to have 2 dead cap hits from buyouts on the books.

Preds aren’t even in the position to be buying out a top 6 center anyways.

 

[triggrman]

Poile isn’t going to have 2 dead cap hits from buyouts on the books.

Preds aren’t even in the position to be buying out a top 6 center anyways.

If I’m an owner of a cap team that’s not going to the playoffs I’m probably dumping salary

 

[BigFatCat999]

If I’m an owner of a cap team that’s not going to the playoffs I’m probably dumping salary

agreed. I'm keeping an eye on Duchene, Sissons, and Lanky

 

[cool beans]

If I’m an owner of a cap team that’s not going to the playoffs I’m probably dumping salary

I mean if we can make a trade sure. I was talking strictly buyouts and even salary retention. Not really poiles style.

And of course our takes on what should/will happen rarely line up with what does happen. For better or worse

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Poile isn’t going to have 2 dead cap hits from buyouts on the books.

Preds aren’t even in the position to be buying out a top 6 center anyways.

Having $16M in real money "on the books" for a player you don't need is actually worse, though. I think Poile proved with the Turris buyout that he's not a complete dinosaur in that sense, even if his natural preference would be to act like one.

If Johansen can outplay Parssinen and Glass still, then that should be the challenge to him. Go do it, Joey. And if he can't, then it only makes sense for us to talk about this option. Even if Poile doesn't want to do it. Sort of like firing the coach. It's still worth talking about, even if it's not likely to actually happen.

 

[101st_fan]

Joey is on pace for 20+ goals (for context, about four players per team reach that level each season on average) ... he's top 10 in the league in FO% ... he isn't getting bought out following this season. He isn't getting waived hoping somebody claims him.

That leaves maybe a trade.

 

[Kat Predator]

Joey is on pace for 20+ goals (for context, about four players per team reach that level each season on average) ... he's top 10 in the league in FO% ... he isn't getting bought out following this season. He isn't getting waived hoping somebody claims him.

That leaves maybe a trade.

He's also the only guy who has played every game this season as a center.

 

[101st_fan]

He's also the only guy who has played every game this season as a center.

All the more reasons why the only way Joey leaves is via trade or contract expiration.

 

[cool beans]

I just don’t get the Joey hate, I understand his cap hit is high. But I am firing the coaching staff before buying him out.

He passes the eye test and is actually contributing. Can play PP and PK while winning a massive amount of FOs. He is also a great puck mover which this team is seriously lacking in.

 

[ShagDaddy]

I just don’t get the Joey hate, I understand his cap hit is high. But I am firing the coaching staff before buying him out.

He passes the eye test and is actually contributing. Can play PP and PK while winning a massive amount of FOs. He is also a great puck mover which this team is seriously lacking in.

I could be way off on this but I don’t think anyone hates him, I think it’s the size of his contract. $8M is a lot of cap space. Is he an $8M center? I’ll leave that debate up to the few hockey literate people on this board.

 

[cool beans]

I could be way off on this but I don’t think anyone hates him, I think it’s the size of his contract. $8M is a lot of cap space. Is he an $8M center? I’ll leave that debate up to the few hockey literate people on this board.

I understand that. But buying someone out is a huge slight to any player. Especially when he only has 2 more years on his contract.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I could be way off on this but I don’t think anyone hates him, I think it’s the size of his contract. $8M is a lot of cap space. Is he an $8M center? I’ll leave that debate up to the few hockey literate people on this board.

I don't think anybody has to be especially "hockey literate" to determine that he's NOT worth $8M.

For a 6'3"/215ish center, you get a lot of leeway. He has size, and when he's on... yes, he's actually worth $8M. But... for him the question is always about "when he is on". He is good on faceoffs, I don't think his 2-way game really lags even when it "looks like" he is kind of slacking... he knows how to play the game. But... end of the day he had: 36pts in 68 games in 2019-20 (0.53 ppg); 22 pts in 48 games in 2020-21 (0.46 ppg); a nice rebound in 2021-22 with 63 pts in 79 games (0.80 ppg); and now 18 pts in 32 games ( 0.56 ppg).

I think you need at least 0.75ppg in his role to even hope to justify that salary, even with his other credentials. Soooo... 3 out of the last 4 years he is not doing that.

I don't "hate" him either. I would love to have him on the team at $4-5M. This is his 8th year with us, and we really haven't had any other options over those 8 years anyway, so most of the time this same thing came up I just dismissed it with the standard "we don't have anybody else" statements that everybody is still recycling.

But things MIGHT be changing. Parssinen and Glass could be on a similar level now. We haven't had that before. They are still not "elite #1C" types. But it isn't THAT high a threshold to be a decent 0.5 ppg top-2 center with some size who plays an okay 2-way game. These guys seem to be showing signs they could meet that bar. It's just not THAT high a bar, alas. Faceoff ability is nice, but it's very minor. You don't pay a guy $8M just because he can win 10% more faceoffs, 95% of which mean nothing. I actually kind of like Joey overall. But our Cap situation opens the door to a more pragmatic perspective.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

I could be way off on this but I don’t think anyone hates him, I think it’s the size of his contract. $8M is a lot of cap space. Is he an $8M center? I’ll leave that debate up to the few hockey literate people on this board.

He's not, but we're probably not acquiring anyone with any cap space gained from trading him that will be better. Not to mention throwing Parsnip and Glass into the deep end as the centers is probably a not recipe for success (both on a team-level and they are both probably best off with someone to help insulate their minutes still).

I'm more concerned by having both Ekholm and McDonagh's contracts on the books (for an additional year) than Joey's.