Predators Hockey Discussion 22-23

[cool beans]

Most d-men are 3+ years after their draft by the time they get a call up significant time with the Preds.

By the time our home grown d-men got at least half a season of NHL play Carrier was 25 (Trenin was same draft class with more games in the NHL). Fabbro was 21. Ekholm 23. Josi 21. All with college, AHL, or European pro time. Trotz's comments about a young Ehkom were brutal and we didn't see Ekky back in a Preds uniform for two seasons after that. All older than Tomasino or Parssinen ... the younger d-men were the same age as Tolvanen. Del Gaizo was the same draft class as Tomasino and Parssinen , Stastney the year prior ... neither playing in the NHL yet.

I understand that defenseman take longer to develop than forwards. Thanks for that info. But that is exactly the point. This team team has no formula for developing forwards other than AHL for 6 years and teaching them to become 2 way offensive black holes. this team can’t develop forwards so there is no real argument against it.

Also when’s the last time we’ve seen a good forsberg reverse hit? Or a between the legs goal from him? Miss that part of his game

 

[101st_fan]

I understand that defenseman take longer to develop than forwards. Thanks for that info. But that is exactly the point. This team team has no formula for developing forwards other than AHL for 6 years and teaching them to become 2 way offensive black holes. this team can’t develop forwards so there is no real argument against it.

Also when’s the last time we’ve seen a good forsberg reverse hit? Or a between the legs goal from him? Miss that part of his game

6 years of AHL is pure hyperbole. Trenin, Jeannot, Parssinen all skating tonight with far less than that ... Tomasino is just 21 and working on his game after a full NHL season and no top six spots for him this, Tolvanen got his first half season of NHL experience in his 19 year old season ... hell, we could go back to Legwand with a NHL debut in his draft year and full NHL season the next, Hartnell straight to the NHL. One has to look back SEVEN draft classes for a single defender to get more than 2 NHL games. Your point doesn't hold up to empirical data.

 

[cool beans]

6 years of AHL is pure hyperbole. Trenin, Jeannot, Parssinen all skating tonight with far less than that ... Tomasino is just 21 and working on his game after a full NHL season and no top six spots for him this, Tolvanen got his first half season of NHL experience in his 19 year old season ... hell, we could go back to Legwand with a NHL debut in his draft year and full NHL season the next, Hartnell straight to the NHL. One has to look back SEVEN draft classes for a single defender to get more than 2 NHL games. Your point doesn't hold up to empirical data.

Obviously I’m being dramatic. Good god. I didn’t direct the original
Post at you anyways. It’s a message board for venting not a court of law. Regardless this team sucks at developing forwards idk why your still hung up on how old a defenseman is when I never specified age just said young… enjoy the game

 

[101st_fan]

Obviously I’m being dramatic. Good god. I didn’t quote you. It’s a message board for venting not a court of law. Regardless this team sucks at developing forwards idk why your still hung up on how old a defenseman is when I never specified age just said young… enjoy the game

I'm not sorry that younger forwards are getting significant more NHL ice time than defenders over the past decade or so ... no matter how you'd like to refrain from using any real definition for "young" as the reality doesn't align with your post. Hell, even your hyperbole doesn't agree with your own posts.

Nobody from the last three drafts has played in the NHL yet. 4 drafts ago, no defenders and only forwards have made it to the NHL with Tomasino playing a full season last year and Parssinen cracking the lineup this season. Five drafts ago, nobody panned out. Six draft classes, Tolvanen getting a half season at 19 ... Farrance with 2 total NHL games ... again the forward getting to play though ups and downs. Seven drafts ago was Fabbro, Girard traded away, Pitlick lost on waivers. Eight drafts saw Trenin come up to the NHL full time a year before Carrier. Nine drafts ago was Fiala and Arvy with no defenders playing a single NHL game while both of those forwards were getting significant NHL ice time within two years of their draft. A full decade ago was Seth Jones and Saros with no forwards really making a difference in the NHL.

 

[cool beans]

I'm not sorry that younger forwards are getting significant more NHL ice time than defenders over the past decade or so ... no matter how you'd like to refrain from using any real definition for "young" as the reality doesn't align with your post. Hell, even your hyperbole doesn't agree with your own posts.

Nobody from the last three drafts has played in the NHL yet. 4 drafts ago, no defenders and only forwards have made it to the NHL with Tomasino playing a full season last year and Parssinen cracking the lineup this season. Five drafts ago, nobody panned out. Six draft classes, Tolvanen getting a half season at 19 ... Farrance with 2 total NHL games ... again the forward getting to play though ups and downs. Seven drafts ago was Fabbro, Girard traded away, Pitlick lost on waivers. Eight drafts saw Trenin come up to the NHL full time a year before Carrier. Nine drafts ago was Fiala and Arvy with no defenders playing a single NHL game while both of those forwards were getting significant NHL ice time within two years of their draft. A full decade ago was Seth Jones and Saros with no forwards really making a difference in the NHL.

I mean you just made up your own criteria of what I said and are running with it. My main point is we can’t develop forwards and you keep dancing around that and are only talking about the most minuscule part of the post and are even botching that argument. No where did i say i mean 18 year olds D+1…. Show me anywhere I said I was talking about players right out of the draft playing?

I didn’t. So you’re arguing with yourself about things no one has said except you.

 

[101st_fan]

I mean you just made up your own criteria of what I said and are running with it. My main point is we can’t develop forwards and you keep dancing around that and are only talking about the most minuscule part of the post and are even botching that argument. No where did i say i mean 18 year olds D+1…. Show me anywhere I said I was talking about players right out of the draft playing?

I didn’t. So you’re arguing with yourself about things no one has said except you.

"Develop like they let young defenseman." Your words. When the underlying fallacy is noted, you rant. The reality is that the team developed only four NHL defenders in the past decade ... one of those was a top 5 draft pick that needed minimal development (Jones) and he is one of two that has been gone from the organization for over five years now (the other is Girard).

Parssinen is stepping into the NHL in his first season in North America ... Tomasino is working on his game to become a top 6 after an okay season last year buried in the bottom 6 ... Glass taking strides beyond anything he ever did with Vegas ... Novak stepping right back to where he was when injuries took him out of Nashville last year ... Jeannot leading the NHL in rookie scoring last season ... Trenin became a serviceable NHL forward from his late 2nd round slot .... Tolvanen got three seasons to take hold of a position and just streaked his way out of it after cracking the lineup young... then Afenasyev and Evangalista are developing in their 3rd and 2nd season post draft. That doesn't count flipping home developed Fiala for Granlund via trade or letting Arvy go . Again, four total defenders in the Preds became NHL players in the span where those forwards became NHL players.

I never said players straight out of draft ... I compared when players started playing significant NHL time. Your choice to misrepresent what you've and I've said is funnier than Nino jumping into the Hawks bench. Carry on.

 

[ShagDaddy]

I mean you just made up your own criteria of what I said and are running with it. My main point is we can’t develop forwards and you keep dancing around that and are only talking about the most minuscule part of the post and are even botching that argument. No where did i say i mean 18 year olds D+1…. Show me anywhere I said I was talking about players right out of the draft playing?

I didn’t. So you’re arguing with yourself about things no one has said except you.

Don’t feed the troll

 

[cool beans]

Btw we hardly developed fiala. To take credit for that is laughable at best

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Btw we hardly developed fiala. To take credit for that is laughable at best

Nonsense. All credit to Boudreau and his offensive-minded system for figuring out how to get the most out of him and how to take that final step to consistent production, but you don't "develop" a player in 19 games and a handful of off-season months.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Nonsense. All credit to Boudreau and his offensive-minded system for figuring out how to get the most out of him and how to take that final step to consistent production, but you don't "develop" a player in 19 games and a handful of off-season months.

In Fiala’s case I think from what I saw of him as a junior that he was kind of an anti-Tolvanen in terms of accommodating the kind of development path the Preds wanted him to follow. He was flashy, confident/cocky and was having none of their nonsense of paying his dues and turning into a defensively responsible two-way player. That is probably what earned him a little bit of a reputation for having “attitude” and what got him traded.

I don’t credit anybody much for “developing” him. He did things his way and it paid off for him.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

We're now watching 3 young centers lead this team.

Parssinen- It was hopeful, yet unlikely, that he'd come over and jump directly into the NHL but that is exactly what he's done. Well, after a very short stint in the AHL to get used to the new ice surface and style of play. His first 4-5 games where great then slumped for 10-12 but seems to have found his footing again and is making things happen with his puck possession skills and speed.

Glass- For all the complaints about how he's been treated he really is starting to develop some chops at the NHL level and is earning his icetime. His speed and vision are working in his favor right now.

Novak- The bottom six grinder that we thought we had last season went back to Milwaukee and worked to become a top six center and power play specialist with speed that can really push the play on his first call up this season. It's still early so we don't know if he can sustain this level but it's a hell of a start for him.

All 3 are noticeably pushing the offense with speed, puck possession, and vision. This is helping the defense, not only in the defensive zone but also in the offensive zone as well. The chaos they are creating down low for the opponent is making space for the defensemen to drop down and out number the other team around the net.

The speed of the offensive transition is probably helping Duchene too. Instead of him pushing the puck into the zone 1on3 and losing the puck he's got team mates coming into the zone with speed that the defense has to account for. The puck is also getting out of the Dzone and through the neutral zone quicker with better passing which utilizes his speed as well.

I've missed a lot of games this season and haven't watched most of the miserable stretches but what I've seen this last few games seems promising.

Is it a turning point and can they sustain this level consistently? We shall see but isn't that the fun part about watching the games?

 

[Scoresberg]

Hate to complain after a win (although it was against the Hawks) but Johansen with 10:48 TOI, Duchene with 12:47.

I feel like Hynes is just building up excuses, in case things go bad for him. Like benching your best offensive players, just cause. I don't even think they're playing that bad, heck Duchene scored a goal.

I think he's doing all these just so he can say "look it's those guys not me". And some - even on these boards - are buying that narrative.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

I will say Johansen looked to be skating a half step slow last night. Hynes has no issues giving more minutes in game to the guys who are driving play.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

Glass has fantastic vision and is serving up some beautiful scoring chances. Parsinnen has a knack for using his reach without losing his leverage. His possession game on full display last night, and that onetimer looked good on the 2nd PP. Novak looks decisive in transition and plays a veteran style game. It's nice seeing some new blood. I'm not sure I've seen our PP with more passes through the box than that 3rd period PP last night with all the kids on it. They were whipping that puck around.

 

[triggrman]

Hate to complain after a win (although it was against the Hawks) but Johansen with 10:48 TOI, Duchene with 12:47.

I feel like Hynes is just building up excuses, in case things go bad for him. Like benching your best offensive players, just cause. I don't even think they're playing that bad, heck Duchene scored a goal.

I think he's doing all these just so he can say "look it's those guys not me". And some - even on these boards - are buying that narrative.

Despite what the stat sheet say, Johansen has not been good lately. He's been lazy on the back check and takes stupid penalties in the offensive zone too often. I'd bench him too.

Duchene on the other hand, I agree with you on that one.


@nine_inch_fang what do you believe is allowing the transition to run smoother now when it hasn't so much this season? Also, Fabbro and Carrier seem to both be taking that next step. I'm sure they'll both have some bad moments but both have moved into that true top 4 defensemen level for me now.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I don't know if Joey has had some nagging injury or if he is just getting these lower icetimes due to his lacklustre play, but it's nice to actually have these kids around to push him. We should have been doing this sooner. Glass isn't suddenly getting better. He's just being allowed to play with more confidence and better players... which could have happened from Game 1 of the season.

But anyway, if all of Glass, Parssinen, and Novak are able to succeed up the middle this is a great thing for us. Because we no longer have to play Granlund out of position, and can reduce his minutes. He's an ok player, but all those times Hynes was playing him 20+ minutes were just over-using him. And if Joey is in his cruise mode, it's nice to FINALLY after all these years have other actual centers. Wakey wakey Joey... for the first time since you've been here, there are guys who could actually take your job!

 

[triggrman]

Johansen only has 2 years after this one on his contract, he might be tradeable.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Johansen only has 2 years after this one on his contract, he might be tradeable.

He is probably tradeable with retention.

I would definitely look at that vs. his buyout hit, if we get to the point of being 100% confident that we have the replacements on hand.

The buyout hit at 4x$2.67M is not THAT onerous... considering we then get $5.33M extra to use. It would likely solve all our incoming Cap problems for next season, anyway. Then there might be some solace for the extra 2 years if the Cap is going to go up significantly in those years.

But if we could retain something like $3M instead and trade him to some team as a 2x$5M player, then that would be even better... I don't think we would really need to get something of any significance back, given our primary goal is to make room for internal replacements and save $$$$ on the Cap.

 

[101st_fan]

Nonsense. All credit to Boudreau and his offensive-minded system for figuring out how to get the most out of him and how to take that final step to consistent production, but you don't "develop" a player in 19 games and a handful of off-season months.

Fiala was in the Preds organization for over four seasons. He came over in 2014-15 ... traded at the deadline in 2018-19. I have no idea where you get this "19 games and a handful of off-season months."

 

[101st_fan]

There is a reason why Gravel, McKeown and Gross were signed ... why Lauzon got signed to a four year extension ... and it is because the Preds' defensive development pipeline isn't what it was 15 years ago. We don't have a home grown player to plug in if we lose a defender. Of the ten defensemen to suit up this season, only four are Preds draft picks and two of them are on the north side of 30.

In the past decade ... four (yes, 4) defenders drafted by the Preds managed to make it to the NHL and play more than 5 games .... one of those was a top 5 overall pick (later traded for a center), another one was traded in his first year as a pro in the Preds organization with only 11 games between Nashville and Milwaukee. That leaves Carrier and Fabbro. The mythos of Predators defenseman development comes down to three draft classes which are all now 14, 15 and 20 drafts ago with Ellis, Ekholm, Josi, Suter, Weber and to a lesser extent Klein. Over those last 20 drafts the team missed with Farrance, Blum, Parent, Roussell, Dougherty ... the jury is still out on Prokop who at this point should be stepping up to the AHL but is bouncing between the ECHL and WHL as an overaged player this season ... Willsby, Matier, Ufko who are all another year or two down the pipeline.

Meanwhile in that same 10 year span the Preds are finding and growing forwards. Fiala who in his 4th season in the Preds organization grew into a 20+ goal scorer putting up a total that he's surpassed just one time since being traded away. Arvy, a multiple 30 goal scorer as a Pred. Trenin, 17 goals last season and full time player for 3 seasons now. Parssinen, Novak, Tomasino all with NHL experience and at varying points in their development. Tolvanen with a streaky time in Nashville across 135 NHL games. Evangalista and Afanasyev putting up decent numbers in the AHL working to earn a call up. Then there is the undrafted free agent Jeannot that put up 24 goals as a rookie last season who is still getting ice time although he's fallen off of a statistical cliff.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

@nine_inch_fang what do you believe is allowing the transition to run smoother now when it hasn't so much this season? Also, Fabbro and Carrier seem to both be taking that next step. I'm sure they'll both have some bad moments but both have moved into that true top 4 defensemen level for me now.

Fabbro and Carrier improving their first passes and McDonagh being back are a big difference in getting the pucks up to the forwards.

Once the puck is out of the corner and up to the forwards it seems the passing is a split second quicker and more accurate. Those 3 young centers being on the ice so much makes the play look more instinctual (quicker) and accurate than what we've been seeing. I didn't see as many bad passes or mishandled receptions as before, when I did, you could look at the number on the jersey and not be surprised by who it was.

There's also a difference in the off puck movement, it's faster, has more purpose, and more straight ahead pushing the opposing D back, opening up lanes. They aren't leaving the zone early and hoping for some miracle pass to get through the Nzone, they're timing their breaks to catch the D holding their gap with the puck carrier and sneaking in behind them with speed. Duchene, Jeannot, Trenin all come to mind last night getting behind the D and making them scramble, even if they weren't clean break aways it's the type of thing that opens up ice for the 3rd and 4th guys to skate into for clean high danger shots.

Back to Fabbro for a bit. I really do like how his game has progressed playing with Lauzon. He gets to be the big man. The one expected to do the work and do it at a high level. We're starting to see him all over the ice making plays.

 

[101st_fan]

Fabbro and Carrier improving their first passes and McDonagh being back are a big difference in getting the pucks up to the forwards.

Once the puck is out of the corner and up to the forwards it seems the passing is a split second quicker and more accurate. Those 3 young centers being on the ice so much makes the play look more instinctual (quicker) and accurate than what we've been seeing. I didn't see as many bad passes or mishandled receptions as before, when I did, you could look at the number on the jersey and not be surprised by who it was.

There's also a difference in the off puck movement, it's faster, has more purpose, and more straight ahead pushing the opposing D back, opening up lanes. They aren't leaving the zone early and hoping for some miracle pass to get through the Nzone, they're timing their breaks to catch the D holding their gap with the puck carrier and sneaking in behind them with speed. Duchene, Jeannot, Trenin all come to mind last night getting behind the D and making them scramble, even if they weren't clean break aways it's the type of thing that opens up ice for the 3rd and 4th guys to skate into for clean high danger shots.

Back to Fabbro for a bit. I really do like how his game has progressed playing with Lauzon. He gets to be the big man. The one expected to do the work and do it at a high level. We're starting to see him all over the ice making plays.

Realizing that McDonagh and Josi mesh (for all of the complaints about coaching decisions why they kept trying to force Ekholm/McD as a pair that wasn't working rather than try the current top pair earlier is beyond me) allowed the team to better align the bottom two pairs. The current mix is a top pairing, three guys who could all skate on the second pair pretty much anywhere in the league, and Lauzon who is the closest to being easily replaced by a call-up from Milwaukee.



One area where Lauzon is actually decent is getting the puck on net ... it just hasn't resulted in a tip or rebound goal yet.

 

[triggrman]

Lauzon’s physical game is pretty good his biggest weakness is his positioning. He seems too reactionary and seems to chase a lot down low.

 

[herzausstein]

Glass, Parssinen, and Novak all finding their grooves. Will be interesting how the summer shakes out if all three can be productive and stick with the team for the rest of the year.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

Realizing that McDonagh and Josi mesh (for all of the complaints about coaching decisions why they kept trying to force Ekholm/McD as a pair that wasn't working rather than try the current top pair earlier is beyond me) allowed the team to better align the bottom two pairs. The current mix is a top pairing, three guys who could all skate on the second pair pretty much anywhere in the league, and Lauzon who is the closest to being easily replaced by a call-up from Milwaukee.



One area where Lauzon is actually decent is getting the puck on net ... it just hasn't resulted in a tip or rebound goal yet.

I think Lauzon can be better than what we're seeing, and really might already be better than what he gets credit for. There are a lot of good parts to his game, they just get over looked because of the untimely gaffes he seems to have once or twice a period. He can hit along the boards and in open ice against the rush. He has good leverage and edge control in board battles. His decision making around the net and his net front defense (sorting out the confusion) is where I see him needing the most work.

Edit: Didn't see this before I posted.

Lauzon’s physical game is pretty good his biggest weakness is his positioning. He seems too reactionary and seems to chase a lot down low.

Looks like we're thinking the same thing.