Potential Atlanta NHL Expansion Team Thread

[dj4aces]

In terms of Atlanta vs. Utah, not sure what's more important to the league. On one hand, SLC is the better temporary fix as they have a better temporary arena to play in. Atlanta could try to work it out where they play in Gas South Arena, though it has lots of moving parts as the potential ownership doesn't own that arena. Plus, it would seat about 3,000 less for games.

However, on the other hand, if SLC's allure is that they're getting the Olympics and is looking to start building a new, full NHL seating, arena several years down the road, Atlanta is lightyears ahead. Dirt's already moving.

In the end, at least reading the media, it appears SLC would be first in line IF relocation was on the table. I'm just not sure if Atlanta can't swoop in with a better bid.

The elephant in the city that no one has mentioned is the presence of SFA. I'm pretty sure the fans would tolerate a team downtown for a couple seasons while the new barn is built. The building still has the ice equipment, it's just not a great building for hockey. While Gas South is much closer to the fans, it's also much smaller. I'm no expert, but the league wouldn't want to bounce from one small building to another. Unless this summer has some extensive renovations planned, any team that relocates here won't play in GSA.

 

[KevFu]

In terms of Atlanta vs. Utah, not sure what's more important to the league.

Ultimately, it's never going to ever be "Atlanta vs Utah" except for an on the ice match-up.

I'm sure it's GOING to be presented as if it's a competition, but it's really not... If the Coyotes MUST move in the next 1-3 years without waiting for a new arena to be built somewhere for them, it would be Salt Lake, simply because it makes the most business sense for the NHL.

The Delta Center, the 16/16 split, and the size of markets... the NHL would ask Atlanta how close they are and how fast they could, get Atlanta pumped to get started, and then say "well, we need to send them to Salt Lake now, but your plan was good, give us an expansion fee and you're in!"

Leaving PHX means the NHL would want the Atlanta market ASAP to offset TV market sizes for national TV deals.

And of course, if the Coyotes STAY in Phoenix because there's serious progress on an arena, that ALSO helps Atlanta get a team, because Salt Lake also wants a team and the Atlanta TV market WITH Phoenix and Salt Lake grows that for TV, and lands them two expansion fees.


It all takes way longer than fans like, but another NHL team in Atlanta is inevitable. A lot of us said it back 11 years ago when talking about expansion and "how the NHL would get to 36 teams."

 

[dj4aces]

Ultimately, it's never going to ever be "Atlanta vs Utah" except for an on the ice match-up.

I'm sure it's GOING to be presented as if it's a competition, but it's really not... If the Coyotes MUST move in the next 1-3 years without waiting for a new arena to be built somewhere for them, it would be Salt Lake, simply because it makes the most business sense for the NHL.

The Delta Center, the 16/16 split, and the size of markets... the NHL would ask Atlanta how close they are and how fast they could, get Atlanta pumped to get started, and then say "well, we need to send them to Salt Lake now, but your plan was good, give us an expansion fee and you're in!"

Leaving PHX means the NHL would want the Atlanta market ASAP to offset TV market sizes for national TV deals.

And of course, if the Coyotes STAY in Phoenix because there's serious progress on an arena, that ALSO helps Atlanta get a team, because Salt Lake also wants a team and the Atlanta TV market WITH Phoenix and Salt Lake grows that for TV, and lands them two expansion fees.


It all takes way longer than fans like, but another NHL team in Atlanta is inevitable. A lot of us said it back 11 years ago when talking about expansion and "how the NHL would get to 36 teams."

Assuming relocation is a certainty...

I don't think there's a "competition", in that one city is more favorable than another. But I also think the league will be extremely careful with Atlanta.

Yes, absolutely, the events that happened here aren't the fault of fans, but I think the league will also be looking under every dust particle and thoroughly examining every hair they find, looking for any red flags with Krause to be damn sure they're fully committed to making a team work here. This is why I feel like, as discussions with Bettman progressed, the league likely already started vetting them.

So in my mind, it all starts there. How close is the league to completing their vetting process of Krause and his investors? If they're not close to that, or if there's an issue -- even a minor one -- that needs to be addressed by Krause, Smith's up, if for no other reason than his experience in the sports ownership business and his very public desire to own a team and win with them.

But if there's no issues, if they have an agreement to play in State Farm or Gas South (pending renovations) for a couple seasons, you can bet the league would prefer to come here first, regardless of alignment challenges. Further, you can bet the fans will love the team, no matter how many 10pm games they have to stay up for.

...but with that said, I don't believe relocation is back on the menu, not yet. But I do believe the league has contingencies, and likely has for some time now.

 

[KevFu]

The NHL learned a lot of lessons from the 1990s expansions, and the #1 thing they learned is that there is zero benefit to a team starting "NOW" instead of "whenever things are ready."

Dividing the NHL teams into a "things were totally ready" vs "not totally ready" would be quite illuminating.

You'd much rather be on the Colorado, Dallas, Minnesota, Vegas, Seattle, Nashville, Columbus list than the Arizona, Florida, Tampa, Carolina, San Jose list.

And you could probably go all the way back to how the Islanders and Flames were rushed into the NHL because of the WHA. The Flames left Atlanta and the Islanders had 30 years of financial/arena drama

 

[TheGreenTBer]

In terms of Atlanta vs. Utah, not sure what's more important to the league. On one hand, SLC is the better temporary fix as they have a better temporary arena to play in. Atlanta could try to work it out where they play in Gas South Arena, though it has lots of moving parts as the potential ownership doesn't own that arena. Plus, it would seat about 3,000 less for games.

However, on the other hand, if SLC's allure is that they're getting the Olympics and is looking to start building a new, full NHL seating, arena several years down the road, Atlanta is lightyears ahead. Dirt's already moving.

In the end, at least reading the media, it appears SLC would be first in line IF relocation was on the table. I'm just not sure if Atlanta can't swoop in with a better bid.

Does Utah have Waffle House, where everyone is ready to throw the f*** down at 2:30 am on the stickiest floors known to mankind? Point to Atlanta.

 

[GreenHornet]

Assuming relocation is a certainty...

I don't think there's a "competition", in that one city is more favorable than another. But I also think the league will be extremely careful with Atlanta.

Yes, absolutely, the events that happened here aren't the fault of fans, but I think the league will also be looking under every dust particle and thoroughly examining every hair they find, looking for any red flags with Krause to be damn sure they're fully committed to making a team work here. This is why I feel like, as discussions with Bettman progressed, the league likely already started vetting them.

So in my mind, it all starts there. How close is the league to completing their vetting process of Krause and his investors? If they're not close to that, or if there's an issue -- even a minor one -- that needs to be addressed by Krause, Smith's up, if for no other reason than his experience in the sports ownership business and his very public desire to own a team and win with them.

But if there's no issues, if they have an agreement to play in State Farm or Gas South (pending renovations) for a couple seasons, you can bet the league would prefer to come here first, regardless of alignment challenges. Further, you can bet the fans will love the team, no matter how many 10pm games they have to stay up for.

...but with that said, I don't believe relocation is back on the menu, not yet. But I do believe the league has contingencies, and likely has for some time now.

Addressing the sections that I bolded one at a time:

1. Indeed. I think I've stated this on this board before, but I'll say it again. No matter what people think of Gary Bettman and the NHL BoG, one thing that both of them are NOT is stupid. And I'm quite sure they both have pretty long memories, especially when it comes to their abject failure to properly vet the Atlanta $pirit Septocluster™. So yeah, I'm thinking they started vetting Krause and Co. at least 10 months ago when the initial Buccigross Twitter bomb dropped (and I'm thinking even further back than that, since that was just the date that Krause's interest became public, and the two had almost certainly been talking before that).

2. Given that the league has likely been vetting Kraus and Co. for at least 10 months (and likely more like a full year or longer), I have to think the process is likely close to being done, if it's not done already. Yes, things could always come up, but that's the vibe I'm getting, not from anything Bettman (or anyone else) has said, but what they haven't said. While both have tried to slow play the idea of expansion and have been coy about Atlanta (or any other expansion hopeful), they haven't poured cold water with all the recent public developments from the Forsyth Co. Commission about The Gathering. And they've acknowledged that someone was interested. If there had been any red flags that came up, I'd have to think they'd be more evasive about a prospective owner whenever questions were brought up about Atlanta.

3. I'm becoming more inclined to agree with you on relocation of the Coyotes the longer the current situations drag on. If/when relocation becomes imminent, I'm sure the league would prefer to get the ball rolling a little sooner in advance (I'm certain they won't want to wait until May like they did with the Thrashers in 2011). Again, as I've stated (in another thread), I don't think the franchise has ever really recovered from the slapdash way their relocation to Phoenix was handled in 1995 (after being turned down by Minnesota, which wasn't ready at the time), and waiting until May now would be repeating that mistake, IMHO. If there's not an announcement before the end of the regular season (late March), especially if that auction for the land that Muerelo wants to buy takes place in May, I have to think it's off the table for a least a year.

 

[GreenHornet]

The elephant in the city that no one has mentioned is the presence of SFA. I'm pretty sure the fans would tolerate a team downtown for a couple seasons while the new barn is built. The building still has the ice equipment, it's just not a great building for hockey. While Gas South is much closer to the fans, it's also much smaller. I'm no expert, but the league wouldn't want to bounce from one small building to another. Unless this summer has some extensive renovations planned, any team that relocates here won't play in GSA.

The only thing I would wonder about with SFA is whether Tony Ressler (who owns the NBA's Hawks and operating rights to SFA, for those reading who don't know) would have any interest in hosting the hockey team, even temporarily. I know he could charge whatever he wants in rent, but would that really bring him that much of a windfall compared to concerts or other events that he'd want to give up 41 (or more) extra dates?

 

[KevFu]

The only thing I would wonder about with SFA is whether Tony Ressler (who owns the NBA's Hawks and operating rights to SFA, for those reading who don't know) would have any interest in hosting the hockey team, even temporarily. I know he could charge whatever he wants in rent, but would that really bring him that much of a windfall compared to concerts or other events that he'd want to give up 41 (or more) extra dates?

There's no need. If you play a season or two downtown in the NBA arena, there's gonna be fans who are like "wait, why are they MOVING North?" or casuals who won't realize they stopped playing downtown, even if that's the plan all along.

Why give revenue to someone else for a couple years, which limits the ability to spend money on all the things an organization needs to be done right?

Launch the franchise when the arena is ready, at the permanent location, and make a good first impression. The first impression is important everywhere, but it's absolutely critical for Atlanta 3.0.

 

[dj4aces]

The NHL learned a lot of lessons from the 1990s expansions, and the #1 thing they learned is that there is zero benefit to a team starting "NOW" instead of "whenever things are ready."

Dividing the NHL teams into a "things were totally ready" vs "not totally ready" would be quite illuminating.

You'd much rather be on the Colorado, Dallas, Minnesota, Vegas, Seattle, Nashville, Columbus list than the Arizona, Florida, Tampa, Carolina, San Jose list.

And you could probably go all the way back to how the Islanders and Flames were rushed into the NHL because of the WHA. The Flames left Atlanta and the Islanders had 30 years of financial/arena drama

You're not wrong. But I would also argue that Salt Lake also falls under the "not totally ready" category. Smith wants a new barn. Smith knows 14k would be the smallest barn in the league. I think that's one reason why relocation was never specifically mentioned in his press release. He needs time to get a building arranged, be it in Draper or in Salt Lake (which presently, if you read between the lines, it seems like he's trying to pit the two locations against each other for the teams).

The only difference is Smith owns the Delta Center. Krause doesn't own State Farm or Gas South, and only State Farm is large enough to host a NHL team.

Of course, none of this really matters unless a team *must* relocate. Both parties have time to sort things out, get plans in order, get construction started, whatever they need to do in preparation for expansion. As of now, there are zero teams in danger of relocation. It's all assumed.

Does Utah have Waffle House, where everyone is ready to throw the f*** down at 2:30 am on the stickiest floors known to mankind? Point to Atlanta.

According to the Waffle House website, metro Atlanta has 231 Waffle House locations. Houston has 36, Phoenix has 11, and Utah has zero.

Waffle House: Where every night is fight night!

The only thing I would wonder about with SFA is whether Tony Ressler (who owns the NBA's Hawks and operating rights to SFA, for those reading who don't know) would have any interest in hosting the hockey team, even temporarily. I know he could charge whatever he wants in rent, but would that really bring him that much of a windfall compared to concerts or other events that he'd want to give up 41 (or more) extra dates?

That is certainly a question, but one that there's no easy answer to, right? I mean, the Hawks did have a "Blueland" theme during the mid-season tournament this year (the Hawks feed also had clips of them playing on the blue hardwood, so it was definitely used during games)... but whether that'd translate into him sharing the building with a hockey team for a few years might be a different story.

It's still an option though.

 

[GreenHornet]

Launch the franchise when the arena is ready, at the permanent location, and make a good first impression. The first impression is important everywhere, but it's absolutely critical for Atlanta 3.0.

I'm inclined to agree with this. As I've mentioned before, it's important to get things right than rush into anything and do it in a slapdash manner.

 

[KevFu]

You're not wrong. But I would also argue that Salt Lake also falls under the "not totally ready" category. Smith wants a new barn. Smith knows 14k would be the smallest barn in the league. I think that's one reason why relocation was never specifically mentioned in his press release. He needs time to get a building arranged, be it in Draper or in Salt Lake (which presently, if you read between the lines, it seems like he's trying to pit the two locations against each other for the teams).

The only difference is Smith owns the Delta Center. Krause doesn't own State Farm or Gas South, and only State Farm is large enough to host a NHL team.

Yes, the ideal is the new NHL/NBA arena (which is definitely happening before the 2034 Olympics). While the Delta Center is only 14,000 for hockey, hockey was considered the entire time because of the Winter Olympics. The only thing that separates Delta Center from being a legit NHL arena is 4,000 lower end zone seats.

But I think we're getting hung up on things that won't come into play. Atlanta will get a team that will start playing when the new arena is ready. Neither Salt Lake or the Coyotes will be a factor in Atlanta's timeline at all (with the caveat that the NHL won't expand if the Coyotes are still wandering nomads).

I understand that fans in Atlanta would want a team first and feel competitive about who "deserves it." But it's like two siblings fighting over the used family car...

A return to Atlanta is TOO IMPORTANT to the league to NOT give them the Vegas/Seattle expansion treatment.

Your brother in Salt Lake might get the used family car first; Your NHL Daddy wants you to have a brand new one.

 

[TheGreenTBer]

You're not wrong. But I would also argue that Salt Lake also falls under the "not totally ready" category. Smith wants a new barn. Smith knows 14k would be the smallest barn in the league. I think that's one reason why relocation was never specifically mentioned in his press release. He needs time to get a building arranged, be it in Draper or in Salt Lake (which presently, if you read between the lines, it seems like he's trying to pit the two locations against each other for the teams).

The only difference is Smith owns the Delta Center. Krause doesn't own State Farm or Gas South, and only State Farm is large enough to host a NHL team.

Of course, none of this really matters unless a team *must* relocate. Both parties have time to sort things out, get plans in order, get construction started, whatever they need to do in preparation for expansion. As of now, there are zero teams in danger of relocation. It's all assumed.


According to the Waffle House website, metro Atlanta has 231 Waffle House locations. Houston has 36, Phoenix has 11, and Utah has zero.

Waffle House: Where every night is fight night!


That is certainly a question, but one that there's no easy answer to, right? I mean, the Hawks did have a "Blueland" theme during the mid-season tournament this year (the Hawks feed also had clips of them playing on the blue hardwood, so it was definitely used during games)... but whether that'd translate into him sharing the building with a hockey team for a few years might be a different story.

It's still an option though.

I loves me some Waffle House. Where else can you get both hashbrowns (served like a million different ways) and haymakers?

 

[nhlfan79]

People might forget that the very successful Atlanta United played half a season at Grant Field. Apples and oranges, but not totally unprecedented.

 

[GreenHornet]

A return to Atlanta is TOO IMPORTANT to the league to NOT give them the Vegas/Seattle expansion treatment.

This brings to mind something that I don't think has been talked about enough. Before the Vegas/Seattle expansions, my preference would've been for relocation if Atlanta ever got another team because I figured that would offer the best chance for the new teams to be competitive right off the bat, something that definitely DIDN'T happen for the Thrashers.

But the NHL made some adjustments that helped the Golden Knights and Kraken build their rosters with more quality players and become not only competitive right off the hop, but successful fairly quickly. That should help build interest in the new team in Atlanta (IF/when it happens) and sustain it.

That said, I'm wondering what logistics the NHL have in mind if/when it decides to expand. I'm assuming there will be two teams at some point (an maybe two more further down the road). Do they come in together? Do they stagger the two new teams a year apart? Two years apart?

To me, I'd prefer to see a two-year gap between two expansion teams. First, I think it would benefit the teams to spread the expansion draft pools a little for the two new teams. And I think it would benefit the rest of the teams to have an extra year to draft new players and build up their younger prospects in order to help replenish what they lose to the expansion teams.

So, my preferred timetable is to see Atlanta in '26 (when The Gathering arena opens) and Salt Lake City (if they don't get the relocated Coyotes) or Phoenix 2.0/Houston/Quebec/San Diego/Kansas City/wherever coming in, say, two years later in '28.

 

[KevFu]

I always thought it should be spread out even more. Like 5-7 years. The NHL's problem in the 1990s wasn't SOUTHERN expansion, it was SUDDEN expansion. They all sucked at once!

(And as an Islanders fan, who really needed a franchise guy in the draft, but we're picking 5th behind four new teams: sudden expansion was freaking horrible for more than just the expansion teams!)

But the new expansion policy of giving the ninth best skater to the new teams probably means you don't need to spread them out as much as Vegas/Seattle were.

The expansion timeline is always waaaaaaay slower than fans expect/want. Atlanta and Salt Lake both in the NHL for 2034 is likely.

I'd say that 2027 and 2031 makes the most sense.

 

[JMCx4]

I think too much is being made of Bettman's comments from last weekend. With my lawyer's ear, all I heard him to say is that there's nothing to report at this moment. The league is not actively looking to expand right now, which is best understood to mean essentially literally. In other words, we have no news to share with you at this very moment in time. ...

Huh ... I've never heard a lawyer use the phrase "essentially literally." What does your other ear do for a living?

 

[dj4aces]

I loves me some Waffle House. Where else can you get both hashbrowns (served like a million different ways) and haymakers?

I feel like Bubba Sparxxx or Rehab missed a real opportunity there, because "Hashbrowns and Haymakers" would've been one hell of an album title!

That said, I'm wondering what logistics the NHL have in mind if/when it decides to expand. I'm assuming there will be two teams at some point (an maybe two more further down the road). Do they come in together? Do they stagger the two new teams a year apart? Two years apart?

Expanding to two cities at a time isn't unprecedented. They did it in 1992 (TBL and OTT), and again in 1993 (FLA and ANA). However, I don't remember enough about how that all played out to say, one way or another, if the league would do it again, or why they haven't since then.

 

[nhlfan79]

Huh ... I've never heard a lawyer use the phrase "essentially literally." What does your other ear do for a living?

You're dense. Those aren't antonyms. Read it again. I spent four surrounding sentences explaining exactly what I meant.

I'll speak slower, just for you. Bettman meant exactly what he said, at face value, nothing more.

 

[KevFu]

I feel like Bubba Sparxxx or Rehab missed a real opportunity there, because "Hashbrowns and Haymakers" would've been one hell of an album title!


Expanding to two cities at a time isn't unprecedented. They did it in 1992 (TBL and OTT), and again in 1993 (FLA and ANA). However, I don't remember enough about how that all played out to say, one way or another, if the league would do it again, or why they haven't since then.

The fact that a lot of the 1990s expansion teams (and other new markets) just straight up sucked, at the same time, for a long time... that's a big piece for why the NHL changed the expansion draft to give new teams better players.

(obviously, that's also tied to cap space. Taking the 15th best player from every team would be like a $12m payroll, so the new team would have to spend $48m in free agency, which would be terrible for everyone else).

But generally speaking, one team every 3-5 years is much, much, much smarter than two teams at once, or back-to-back years.

 

[dj4aces]

But generally speaking, one team every 3-5 years is much, much, much smarter than two teams at once, or back-to-back years.

No argument here. Logically speaking, it's 100% true.

Whether they expand by one team in each current division over the course of 20 years, or they add four teams in two, or anything in between, the BoG knows better than any of us what they can actually do.

 

[sneakytitz]

I keep hearing conflicting stories but my company had a very, very minor role in the SFA renovations a few years back and we were told from an engineer on the project that the ice making infrastructure was removed to accommodate the new courtside bar/club/restaurant. If that is true then SFA is certainly not an option.

EDIT: And what I mean by that is that the brine lines were cut/capped/removed at that end of the arena. I have no idea if the compressor, condenser, chiller, etc. are still there.

 

[dj4aces]

I keep hearing conflicting stories but my company had a very, very minor role in the SFA renovations a few years back and we were told from an engineer on the project that the ice making infrastructure was removed to accommodate the new courtside bar/club/restaurant. If that is true then SFA is certainly not an option.

EDIT: And what I mean by that is that the brine lines were cut/capped/removed at that end of the arena. I have no idea if the compressor, condenser, chiller, etc. are still there.

I've heard different things too, but nothing I've been able to find is concrete one way or the other as to what's still there and what's not.

If all the equipment that made it NHL-ready is gone, then that punches a big hole in that idea. At the end of the day, in its current state, Gas South is unsuitable. It needs repairs at the very least.

 

[nhlfan79]

SFA hosts Disney On Ice every year. They have a functioning ice plant.

 

[sneakytitz]

SFA hosts Disney On Ice every year. They have a functioning ice plant.

Disney on Ice brings their own ice making equipment - it's actually a pretty cool setup.

GOT ICE? | Behind the Scenes | The Official Site of Disney On Ice

When Disney On Ice performs in an arena that doesn’t have ice, what do we do?

www.disneyonice.com

 

[KevFu]

The last six new teams had their start date set based on when their new arena was opening (including the Thrashers). We should basically assume that to be league policy now.